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DFS Roundtable: Embrace the Unknown

Chad Parsons's DFS Roundtable: Embrace the Unknown
By Chad Parsons, September 4, 2019

DFS Roundtable: Embrace the Unknown
Photo: Imagn Images

The 49ers passing game, along with A.J. Green being out, and jumbled depth charts like Miami, Washington, and Arizona offer situations to exploit in Week 1. However, the variance is high with outcomes of usage and overall strength of these units. Are there any underrated plays for cash or GPP lineups among them?

Dan Hindery

Let’s start by taking Tyler Boyd out of this cohort of unknowns. He is one of the surest things on the slate. Pencil him in for 8-to-10 targets and feel great about his floor. Boyd averaged 16.4 PPG on DraftKings last year and looks like a rock-solid WR2 again in 2019. He isn’t at the top of my list for cash games but he is at least in the conversation. Nobody else from these offenses makes my list for cash game consideration.

Miami and Washington look like bad teams in bad spots. There is too much value on this Week 1 slate to for me to take a big risk in these spots where the upside looks pretty minimal.

Arizona is a different story. This offense possesses the type of uncertainty that we typically love to target in GPPs. There is certainly upside and a wide range of realistic outcomes for this wide receiver group. It isn’t hard to envision someone like Christian Kirk showing out in Week 1, for example. The problem is that this offense isn’t sneaking up on anyone and the top options are going to come with heavy ownership, especially since we project Kyler Murray to be one of the highest-owned quarterbacks on the slate. In short, it makes sense to target Arizona wide receivers but the ownership is going to be so high that it probably won’t be the sharpest way to try to gain an edge on the field.

This is a thin play but I do want to throw a quick plugin for Damion Willis as a long shot GPP option at the minimum salary. Willis is a freaky size-speed athlete who has made plays on a consistent basis throughout camp for the Bengals. He has already been named the starter at the X-receiver spot in place of A.J. Green and looks like the second option in the Bengals passing game behind only Tyler Boyd heading into the season. If Cincinnati falls behind and is forced to throw aggressively, Willis has a realistic path to a big fantasy day.

Phil Alexander

Miami - Ryan Fitzpatrick getting the starting nod over Josh Rosen helps Miami's chances, but all their key offensive players are easy fades against a stingy Baltimore defense. The Dolphins defense, on the other hand, is very much in play. They're at home and Lamar Jackson's improved accuracy remains theoretical at this point.

Washington - The Eagles were consistently roasted by perimeter wide receivers last year and should force Washington to pass more than they would like to. If you're ever going to use Paul Richardson Jr as a GPP dart, now is the time to do it before he gets hurt.

Arizona - As Dan said, Kirk is the guy you want in tournaments. His price point will make him popular in Kyler Murray stacks, but judging by his dip in season-long ADP after a quiet preseason, he shouldn't be too high-owned on the whole. Kirk is the type of player who can pay off his middling salary on one play.

Justin Bonnema

Dan nailed it with Boyd and the Cardinals’ offense. But I’m going to be the contrarian here and throw some love on Albert Wilson. He appears to be healthy finally and with Kenny Stills gone, there’s a lot of targets that need to go somewhere. He has a tough matchup against the Ravens as Phil noted, but Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t care. Baltimore is going to turn up the pace in this one and force Miami into volume. Give me a few GPP shares of Wilson and his nearly site-minimum salary. If he and Fitzpatrick can connect a few deep shots (a big if), Wilson could swing tournaments.

I’m not interested in the 49ers passing game outside of the quarterback, and won’t be touching Washington’s offense until they show us they can produce. There are too many great looking situations to target in Week 1 to be taking risks on these offenses.

BJ VanderWoude

I am going to bite on Tyler Boyd not necessarily being the automatic play that he appears to be. I agree on all fronts regarding his role, his potential volume, and the lack of talent surrounding him. With that said, if we use his play last year as an indicator, he had his best games with AJ Green in the lineup, not without. He put up solid stats in Green's absence but four of his top five games came with Green lined up against opposing #1 corner backs. Will he provide a solid return on his salary? Yes, but I think his ownership percentage will make it difficult to separate yourself from the field, and there is also a distinct possibility he finishes with a 7/75 stat line and that will do you no good in tournaments.

Jason Wood

In GPPs, the answer to this probably comes down to your volume. If you max enter the big GPPs and are therefore looking at lots of different builds with a handful of high-variance outliers, then I think you can exploit most of these situations. While I'm far less optimistic about the Cardinals offense than my peers, I do acknowledge there's potential. I wouldn't focus on Kirk exclusively, I would have lineups with Trent Sherfield and KeeSean Johnson, who are cheaper but a) got a ton of work with the 1st all preseason, b) were praised universally by beat writers, and c) are listed as starters on the Cardinals updated depth chart (along with Kirk and Fitzgerald).

If you only play a handful of GPP lineups, I'm less interested in these situations because I'm not excited about the quarterback play.

JAMES BRIMACOMBE

Tyler Boyd is absolutely in play this week as his volume and price are both perfect along with his situation. I think for GPPs it is worth taking a Dalton, Mixon, and Boyd stack and possibly run it back with Tyler Lockett on the Seattle side. I won't be touching Miami or Washington players this week but I will be playing Baltimore and Philadelphia defenses against them. Arizona is an interesting team to target this week but I believe their ownership numbers will be inflated with all the talk of the Air Raid offense this offseason so if I was going to target them I might look at going with Kyler Murray and David Johnson stack to be different.

WILL GRANT

The thing that stops me going heavy on Boyd is the thing that had me cool off on Joe Mixon as the summer wore on - their offensive line. The Bengals have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and while Boyd will be the #1 target, I don't know if Andy Dalton is going to have the time to throw to him. The Vegas projected line at just 17 points for Cinci this week, I'll have some of Boyd in a couple of GPPs but not a lot.

All the hype in Arizona has you thinking 'someone should go off' - but the question is who? Like others have said, I'd rather go with 'known' guys like Larry Fitzgerald or Christian Kirk and hope they score a couple of times rather than throwing a dart at Michael Crabtree or KeeSean Johnson. Consider those guys extremely low ownership plays rather than guys you expect to do well.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags Daily FF Tyler Boyd Andy Dalton Ryan Fitzpatrick A.J. Green Lamar Jackson David Johnson KeeSean Johnson Christian Kirk Tyler Lockett Joe Mixon Kyler Murray Josh Rosen Trent Sherfield Kenny Stills Damion Willis Albert Wilson

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