A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very lain a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the Top 150 and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
Player Receiving 8 Votes
Mark Andrews, Baltimore
James Brimacombe: Finding a rookie tight end that produces is rare and that is what Andrews was in 2018. He finished the year as TE16 with a 34/552/3 stat line and showed promise that he can actually produce even more. Right now he looks to be the top receiving target in the Ravens offense so a jump in production is more than likely.
Will Grant: A guy who isn’t on many people's fantasy radar right now is Mark Andrews – yet he should be a part of any fantasy team considering a tight end by committee or if you just waited too long and didn’t land someone before 90% of the other teams in your league. The Ravens will be a run-first team this season, with Lamar Jackson causing defenses to have to cheat up and rush from the corners to contain him. That’s going to leave Andrews open in the flat, and a mobile quarterback with an open tight end is a great combo to have. Andrews will be an excellent safety net for Jackson and I think he’s a steal at his current ADP.
Ryan Hester: Sure, Baltimore will run early and often, but Andrews is still the best pass-catching tight end on a team projected to start either two rookie wide receivers or one rookie and Willie Snead. Aside from the opportunity angle, Andrews is a great athlete who created mismatches all over the field in college and made some big plays (even with Lamar Jackson at quarterback) last season for Baltimore. He’s worth a late-round add.
Dan Hindery: The two most common paths to becoming a fantasy TE1 are being one of the top few targets in an elite passing offense or the #1 target in a less high-powered passing offense. Andrews has the potential to fall into the latter category. His total of 552 receiving yards as a rookie is the second-highest amongst the returning Ravens players (behind only Willie Snead). If he takes a step forward, as most second-year tight ends do, he could easily emerge as the top target in the Ravens passing offense. The Ravens lack of proven talent at wide receiver gives Andrews the opportunity to earn a big target share in 2019, which could make him this year’s Jared Cook or George Kittle.
Justin Howe: A slot specialist who rarely plays on the line, Andrews brings field-stretching speed and soft hands to a Baltimore passing game still searching for consistency. Down the 2018 stretch, Andrews caught 13 of his 18 targets from Lamar Jackson, including game-breakers of 74 and 68 yards. The Ravens spent heavily in the draft on deep-ball speedsters, and Andrews is far more talented in the slots and seams than Willie Snead or Chris Moore. Volume will always be scarce, and Andrews may be a year or two from his true breakout potential. But it wouldn’t be odd to see him carve out a weekly role of 4-5 impact targets, as few tight ends in the back halves of drafts boast his athletic upside. Andrews fits in better as a TE2 than several retreads currently going before him.
Dwain McFarland: Andrews will be in a committee situation much like every other skill position outside of quarterback for the Ravens. It is what they do. This offense will also likely be at the bottom of the league when it comes to pass attempts. So, how does Andrews land on this list? There are two reasons. First, he has a rapport with Lamar Jackson, especially near the end zone. Second, we have seen what Greg Roman can do with two tight ends in a run-heavy offense from his days with San Francisco with Delanie Walker and Vernon Davis. Walker operated more as the blocker (Hayden Hurst) and Davis was the seam stretcher (Andrews). From 2011 to 2014 with Roman, Davis eclipsed 19% of the targets in two of four seasons. At current ADP Andrews carries more upside than many people think.
Matt Waldman: Andrews is a savvy player in against zone coverage with some quickness to get up the seam and earn yards after the catch. Baltimore runs a lot of heavy and tight alignments that use the threat of the running game to set up the pass. The tight end position is one of the easiest targets that benefit from play-action passing because the key defenders assigned to protect the edge of the line of scrimmage in the run game also have responsibilities to cover tight ends and can lose position easily. Andrews makes up for a lack of speed with fluid athletic ability to change direction. There's a good chance that Andrews performs as one of the top three receivers in this offense.
Jason Wood: I’m highly skeptical of the Ravens offense because I don’t think NFL defenses will have trouble stopping Lamar Jackson now that they have some film on him. The only part of the receiving corps worth their ADP is Andrews. Andrews finished as TE16 last year, an impressive feat for a rookie much less one in an offense that viewed vertical passing as the devil’s playbook. Andrews enters training camp as the presumed No. 1, a big change for last season when Baltimore was trying to figure out a four-headed monster at the position. While I doubt Lamar Jackson will be a capable long-time starter, he is going to find the end zone periodically. Andrews can be on the receiving end of the majority of those throws.
Player Receiving 2 Votes
Jack Doyle, Indianapolis
Drew Davenport: Don't think too hard on this one. Doyle is still recovering from his hip and kidney problems from last year. But all signs point to him being ready for the season. When he was in the lineup last year Andrew Luck peppered him with targets. Absent any red flags about his health, pull the trigger on Doyle and he'll massively outperform his current draft slot. And if he isn't healthy or can't stay healthy? His draft slot didn't cost you very much and he's an easy early-season cut.
Jeff Pasquino: The consensus outlook is that Eric Ebron is the primary tight end for Indianapolis, while Jack Doyle is in second place. Let’s challenge that notion first. Doyle and Ebron played together in six games last season, and Doyle had more targets in three of those six games (Ebron had two, while one game was a tie). The two games where Ebron was targeted more just happened to be the two contests where Doyle was injured during the game. There is room in the Indianapolis offense for two tight ends on offense, and Doyle’s late ADP makes him a steal even if he only is the TE2 in Indianapolis. Recent history and Luck’s history with tight ends that goes all the way back to Stanford increases Doyle’s value – and it would not be surprising at all if Doyle outperforms Ebron this season.
Gerald Everett, LA Rams
Daniel Simpkins: Tight ends take a while to develop and sometimes we forget that. We also forget how excited the Rams were to take Everetin Sean McVay’s first year as head coach, moving up in the second round to select him. He had a career year last season and was showing signs that the receiving part of his game was clicking. If the Rams keep increasing his targets significantly, as they’ve done the past two seasons, Everetcould move on from being a forgotten man and into fantasy relevance.
Maurile Tremblay: Everett played well enough last year to earn what should be a bigger role heading into 2019. He's an athletic pass-receiver with excellent run-after-the-catch ability for a tight end. Expect Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett to become more specialized in their roles as a blocker and receiver, respectively, with Everett having a shot at a mini-breakout as a fantasy tight end.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia
Dan Hindery: We never talk about injury handcuffs at tight end but given Goedert’s talent and the prominent role he would take on should Zach Ertz miss any time, we should make an exception here. Goedert has drawn rave reviews this offseason with beat writers observing that the Eagles likely wouldn’t see much of a fall-off with Goedert in Ertz’s role. He could be a league-winner if Ertz was to be out for an extended stretch. Not only does Goedert provide huge upside in the case of injury, but he also has bye-week appeal even without an injury. He was the TE20 as a rookie and should see an increase in targets in his second year, which would make him a high-end fantasy TE2. The combination of solid floor and huge injury upside make him an ideal target for fantasy teams rostering a backup tight end.
Jeff Pasquino: Goedert was a valuable rookie for the Eagles last year, finishing at TE20 with 33 receptions and 334 yards. The Eagles were one of the top teams to use “12 personnel” (one running back, two tight ends) as their base offensive formation, as Philadelphia had two tight ends on the field 36% of the time in 2018. Only Houston (37%) lined up this way more, with the Titans (30%), Chiefs (26%) and Ravens (25%) the only other team using two tight ends at least one-fourth of the time. Goedert caught four touchdowns in the 2018 regular season – good enough to tie for 9th at the position – and added another in the postseason. Even if Zach Ertz stays healthy all year long, Goedert is well worth a TE2 spot on fantasy rosters and offers immense upside if Ertz was to miss any action.
Jordan Reed, Washington
Andy Hicks: Jordan Reed is, without doubt, an injury risk, but this year you have the knowledge that his draft price is so low he will be worth the investment. If he plays in any given week, he is worth starting. For one week, five or 12. Given the dearth of skill plays at receiver in Washington, not to mention the offensive line issues, Reed will be close by to bail out whichever quarterback starts. A fit Reed cannot be guaranteed, but when he is you start him. This makes him much more valuable than the other tight ends in his draft area.
Dan Hindery: Reed struggled through yet another injury-plagued season. Thus, it isn’t surprising to see his ADP falling outside of the Top 18 at the position. However, even with the three missed games and limited availability in a couple of others, he still finished as the TE14 last season. He remains very productive when at full strength and we know he has the talent to put up top-10 fantasy numbers. Reed is especially intriguing this season because he is probably the most talented pass-catcher on the team and rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins excels on the short passes over the middle where Reed is most dangerous. There is some sneaky, late-round upside here.
Darren Waller, Oakland
Ryan Hester: The Waller experiment could easily crash and burn, but at least it won’t cost fantasy managers any real draft capital to try it. In fact, where Waller’s current price suggests he’s only being drafted in leagues with 20 rounds or more. The reason for optimism is that his coaching staff, including head coach Jon Gruden, has been talking him up throughout the offseason. His competition for snaps is far from stiff with Luke Willson, Derek Carrier, and Erik Swoope as the nearest competitors. Additionally, Waller is an athletic marvel at 6’6” and 255 pounds, having run a sub-4.5 second 40-yard dash when he entered the NFL as a wide receiver. He could crash and burn, but if he doesn’t, those who believed in him could get a sizeable yield on a minimal investment.
Jason Wood: Darren Waller is the kind of last round lottery ticket worth drafting. Chances are he’ll be a waiver-wire cut in Weeks One or Two, but there’s also a chance he could be your every week starter at a razor-thin position. Waller has been in the league since 2015 and has a mere 18 career receptions, but the narrative entering 2019 is blisteringly hot. A battle with substance abuse nearly drove Waller out of the league, but he appears to have found a better path and flashed in the final weeks of the 2018 season with Oakland. Coach Gruden has called him the league’s best-kept secret, and he enters training camp as the clear-cut No. 1. If early camp reports confirm Gruden’s enthusiasm, Waller is worth targeting.
Player Receiving 1 Vote
Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay
Justin Howe: I’ll never stop beating the Brate drum, especially now that he comes virtually free in any fantasy draft. He’s been fully supplanted by O.J. Howard, and he’s always a “top” candidate to go catchless in a given week. But he also boasts a strong rapport with Jameis Winston near the goal line, and he catches touchdowns at a disproportionate clip (14.5%). Best-ball drafters could speculate much worse at TE3 in the final rounds of their drafts.
Jimmy Graham, Green Bay
Drew Davenport: Despite having a disappointing season for the Packers last year, they brought Graham back to serve as Aaron Rodgers's top tight end target for one more year. Graham is the poster boy for touchdown regression at the position this year. He caught 55 passes but got in the end zone just 2 times, and neither of those scores came after his thumb injury partway through the year. He was an afterthought at times for the 2018 Packers, but being hurt played a role in that so if he's healthy he'll almost certainly outperform both last year's numbers as well as his current ADP.
Chris Herndon, NY Jets
Jeff Haseley: Last season, Chris Herndon blossomed into a decent and emerging tight end which is rare to see from a rookie at the position. Herndon was second on the Jets in targets (34) and receptions (23) after Week 10. His 535 snaps in 2019 were third-most among position players on the Jets. His quick development was impressive, which should lead to more opportunities and playing time in year two once Herndon returns from his four-game suspension.
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit
Chad Parsons: Hockenson is a straight-forward historical bet against rookie tight ends from being fantasy relevant, especially ones with blocking acumen without an elite projection for their team's passing game. Hockenson checks all of those boxes with a quality collection of pass-catchers around him as Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson return from injury to join Kenny Golladay, Theo Riddick, and newly added Danny Amendola.
George Kittle, San Francisco
Chad Parsons: Kittle was a record-setter in 2018 with his rare 15+ yards-per-reception and 1,300+ yards from the tight end position. Only Rob Gronkowski has put up 15+ YPR and 1,000+ yards in a season over the past 20 years in addition to Kittle's 2018. It was the perfect storm for Kittle with injuries and question marks littered across the 49ers' wide receiver group, a spot which looks improved for 2019 with Marquise Goodwin (hopefully) back from injury, DanPettis entering Year 2, and Deebo Samuel drafted on Day 2. Kittle is a bet against regression if banking on a repeat season in 2019 as well as against any of the 49ers' receivers stabilizing the shaky depth chart.
Mike Gesicki, Miami
Dwain McFarland: Gesicki is on a terrible team, but all the targets are up for grabs in this offense. DeVante Parker has had his chances as has Kenny Stills. Gesicki’s range of outcomes includes finding himself as the top target on the team. It isn’t easy to find ADP value on players where youth and opportunity intersect, but that is the case with Gesicki. The quality of his opportunity is definitely in question, but his price is currently over deflated based on that line of thinking.
Ian Thomas, Carolina
Andy Hicks: Ian Thomas had a fantastic, unexpected rookie season in Carolina. So rare was his performance that only elite tight ends such as Rob Gronkowski, George Kittle, and Zach Ertz, among others have reached or exceeded his rookie efforts in recent years. Over the final five games of the season, he ranked in the top six fantasy tight ends during that time. The elephant in the room is Greg Olsen, but his chronic foot issues and likely final year will cede significant playing time to Thomas. Considering the lack of receiving talent on this team, look for Thomas to pick up where he left off in 2018 and surprise everyone, except those who take him late.
Jason Witten, Dallas
Matt Waldman: Witten earns fantasy production based on his understanding of zones, comfort with tight coverage, and quickness as the break-point. He'll return to the Cowboys offense and immediately upgrade the Dallas receiving game because of these skills. Older tight ends often fare well as high-volume options because offenses use the position in ways that emphasize savvy over athletic ability. Expect another year of low-end, fantasy starter production.
