David Johnson's Path to 2000 Yards

Photo: Imagn Images

Since David Johnson authored the ninth-best PPR scoring fantasy football season of all-time in 2016, he has been a nightmare for fantasy football managers. An injury ended his 2017 season after only 46 snaps. In 2018, Johnson finished 11th among running backs in fantasy points per game, but was a disappointing investment as the 2nd running back of most draft boards.

So why should fantasy managers assume an elite season in 2019? Because the circumstances surrounding Johnson's 2019 situation are far more similar to those that led to the 2016 campaign:

1. Increased Role: Johnson will be used as a receiver again in 2019
2. Increased Volume: Arizona won't be second-to-last in offensive plays run this year
3. #NarrativeStreet: If Kliff Kingsbury truly has free reign over his offense, he'll need to lean on Johnson
4. Versatile Skill Set: Johnson is a three-down player. Game script shouldn't keep him off the field

These factors make 2,000 yards from scrimmage a scenario within reach for Johnson, putting him squarely in elite RB1 territory.

Imagination is Creation

Last year, Johnson wasn't utilized as a receiver nearly as much as he was under the previous regime with Bruce Arians leading the way. Johnson isn't the kind of player who should be run repeatedly into the backs of his offensive linemen. Most fantasy footballers are already aware of the difference in usage between Johnson's 2016 and 2018 seasons, but the table below provides an easily-digestible refresher of his usage as a pass-catcher.

As a reminder, "aDOT" stands for Average Depth of Target. And air yards represents the total yards downfield the player's targets traveled. Thus, air yards divided by targets equals aDOT.

Johnson wasn't used creatively last season. But the change from defensive-minded head coach Steve Wilks and set-in-his-ways offensive coordinator Mike McCoy to the video-game-friendly offensive scheme of Kingsbury will afford Johnson more chances to make big plays in 2019. Kingsbury has no NFL history, but such a bold hire should lead to him being given a long leash to do things his way. The team's draft already suggests that Kingsbury is in charge (more on this to come).

Kingsbury's offenses have been friendly in terms of passing to running backs. Over the last three seasons, Texas Tech running backs have averaged 4.8 receptions per game, good for 10th in all of FBS. Kingsbury hinted at plans for Johnson as a receiver shortly after his hire in Arizona:

"He's a guy who can do from the backfield, between the tackles, you can motion him out. He's a mismatch in space."

Kingsbury should help Johnson's usage with his scheme and style. But there were other problems for Johnson last season. Aside from the stark difference in aDOT, the 44 fewer targets and 30 fewer receptions in 2018 make it clear that volume was also an issue. Kingsbury will address that too.

Pump Up the Volume

Last season, the Wilks-McCoy regime was a disaster for fantasy football purposes, particularly for Johnson's chances. Not only did they fail to utilize their most dynamic player creatively, but they also slowed the offense to a near-halt. Let's look at the play volume change from 2016 to 2018.

In just two seasons, Arizona went from the second-most plays run to the second-fewest. The 184-play disparity from 2016 to 2018 is, even more, striking with the context that the average NFL team ran 62.9 plays per game last season. Arizona's offense lost nearly two full games of plays.

The coaching change was the main driving force in such a play volume disparity. And it's another coaching change that will swing the proverbial pendulum back in the other direction.

Kingsbury's Texas Tech teams were among the most up-tempo in the nation. Here are Texas Tech's rankings in plays per game over the last three seasons:

• 2018-19: 4th (82.6 plays per game)
• 2017-18: 9th (79.3)
• 2016-17: 2nd (88.3)

2016 also happened to be the final season of Patrick Mahomes II' college career. Kingsbury has always run a fast system, but it was at its fastest when he was comfortable with his quarterback.

#NarrativeStreet: The Keys to the Kingdom

Kingsbury might have been a stretch hire as an NFL head coach, but the reason he was hired is clear. He was brought to the NFL to coach offense and to lead an exciting style of football. Making such an aspirational hire (while firing a head coach who was only given one season) isn't something done on a whim. And the decision suggests that Kingsbury will be allowed to install his system and do things his way.

Signs already point to Kingsbury having an integral role. The team drafted 11 players in April. Kingsbury's first pick has already been anointed the Week 1 starting quarterback by his general manager. Kyler Murray won the Heisman Trophy, highlighting his production last season. But the emphasis on college production didn't stop there. Here are some other offensive players Arizona selected:

• Pick 62: Andy Isabella - His 1,698 receiving yards led all of FBS in 2018. His 102 receptions ranked second.
• Pick 103: Hakeem Butler - At 6'5" he averaged 22.0 yards per catch, third-most in FBS. He was eighth in yards.
• Pick 174: KeeSean Johnson - Another top-10 performer, Johnson was sixth with 1,340 receiving yards.

Arizona also added two offensive linemen and a tight end in the later rounds. The team has clearly emphasized offense - from its head coach hire to its draft plan.

Last season, the team's second-leading receiver was then-rookie Christian Kirk. So Kingsbury's weapons include a rookie quarterback and a young supporting cast.

But can Kingsbury's system work? To prove the doubters wrong, Kingsbury is going to need the player who represents the best combination of experience and dynamic ability. That player is Johnson, a versatile, dependable player who can play on all downs.

The Path to 2000

For all the talk above about Arizona's offensive promise, none of that guarantees they'll be a good football team. But they don't have to be for Johnson to be a fantasy football asset. As a pass-catcher, he doesn't have to leave the field in negative game scripts. And as a plus-sized ball-carrier, he is the favorite for goal-line carries when the offense gets near the end zone.

Last season, the top five running backs in fantasy football points per game averaged the following:

• 1,085 rushing yards
• 673 receiving yards
• 77.6 receptions
• 16.2 total touchdowns

These numbers are all achievable for Johnson. He's an early-down workhorse like Melvin Gordon and Ezekiel Elliott; he's a pass-catcher like Alvin Kamara; and if his offense ascends to a top-10 unit, he can be a touchdown scorer to the degree that Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey were last season.

Barkley had 2,028 yards from scrimmage last season; McCaffrey had 1,965 and sat out the final three quarters of Week 17. Johnson isn't being drafted at his ceiling. Even as a top-10 overall pick, there is profit to be had.

2019 Projections

Below is what our world-class projectors think of Johnson's prospects this season.

From a Cardinals Insider

This section was added to this column on July 15.

In an article titled "Top Questions Heading Into 2019 Training Camp, Part One," highly-regarded beat reporter Darren Urban discussed Johnson's expected role this season. That articled included the following assessments from Urban:

• "Johnson should fit perfectly into the new Cardinals’ offense, mainly because Johnson remains the team’s best offensive weapon."
• "The Cards are still going to run the ball and Johnson will be the bellcow."
• "But his receiving skills, all but ignored last season, should come back to the forefront."

Urban even referenced Johnson's 2016 season, where he went over 2,000 scrimmage yards and nearly had exceeded 1,000 each rushing and receiving. Knowing that Johnson will be used extensively in both facets of the offensive game plan suggests that 2,000 this season is possible.

Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com

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