The Impact of Andrew Luck's Retirement

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Dealing with Andrew Luck’s Retirement

What Happened: Andrew Luck, two weeks before the start of the 2019 season, retired and sent shockwaves through the NFL landscape. Luck blamed the never-ending cycle of injury and recovery for robbing him of the love of the game.

Luck emotionally announces retirement from NFL - ESPN Video Andrew Luck calls his retirement from the NFL the hardest decision of his life, but also the right decision for him. ESPN.com

What It Means: The Indianapolis Colts were 10-6 in 2018, beat their division-rival Texans in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, and lost in the divisional round to the Chiefs. Behind Luck’s masterful quarterbacking, the team finished 5th in points scored and 7th in total yards. They entered this season with 12-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, but have fallen to 30-1 since Luck’s announcement. The team was projected to win 9.5 games and was the favorite to win the AFC South. A day later, the Colts are expected to win 6.5 games and finished last in the division.

Understanding the Impact:

• The Jacoby Brissett era begins anew
• Does Brissett's emergence spell disaster for the offense?
• Success or failure comes down to sack rate
• What do if you've already drafted Andrew Luck
• Re-assessing the Colts fantasy prospects

The Jacoby Brissett Era Begins Anew

What We Were Saying About Brissett Coming Out of College

Brissett played quarterback at N.C. State and was drafted by the New England Patriots in the third round of the 2016 draft. Footballguys’ own Matt Waldman did a must-read analysis of Brissett in his fantastic 2016 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I commend you to read it in its entirety if you haven’t already. Here were some of Matt’s key findings:

• "Brissett makes pre-snap reads that correctly identify the open receiver for quick plays against the defense. He also strikes a good balance between patience for his receiver’s routes and a sharp enough internal clock to deliver the ball before that pressure becomes a threat. This internal clock isn’t as refined as it could be, but it’s consistently good enough that it’s a strength to build on."
• "Brissett is a fluid athlete, but he uses moves that should be reserved for an athlete at least a half a step faster. He’s often caught in mid-move by a defender and slammed to the ground. He takes too much punishment and must streamline his style, settle for less, and protect his body."
• "Brissett has to learn the line between aggression and reckless behavior. He also has to refine his timing and footwork. I think he plays a little slower than the desired tempo for the pace of a game. It could be positively defined as a sense of calm, but sometimes it seems like he’s a little behind the beat."
• "Give Brissett a few years to develop into a reliable backup, and there’s enough range, accuracy, and improvisational elements to his game that a team may decide he has earned an extended tryout as its future starter."

Brissett ended up playing quickly, coming in for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo in the second game, and starting the next two. He completed 34-of-55 passes for 400 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions. Tom Brady returned from a four-game suspension in Week 5, sending Brissett back to the bench.

On September 2, 2017, he was traded from the New England Patriots to the Colts – in exchange for receiver Phillip Dorsett – just days before the season. Incumbent backup Scott Tolzein started Week 1 against the Rams and was abysmal completing 9-of-18 passes for 128 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions. Brissett started the final 15 games and led the Colts to a 4-11 record. His numbers were uninspiring:

• 276 completions
• 469 attempts
• 58.8% completion rate
• 3,098 passing yards
• 6.6 yards per attempt
• 13 passing touchdowns
• 7 interceptions
• 63 rushes
• 260 rushing yards
• 4 rushing touchdowns
• 52 sacks (led the NFL)
• 10% sack rate

We all know what happened next, the Colts rebuilt the offensive line under the watch of new general manager Chris Ballard, Luck returned to play at an MVP level, and Brissett settled into the No. 2 role. To the Colts credit, they reportedly rebuffed multiple offers to trade Brissett, believing him to be an ideal backup given his experience within the organization and the system.

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Does Brissett Mean Disaster for the Offense?

Anyone who claims to have 100% clarity on what happens to the Colts this year is lying. Brissett’s experience in 2017 is a better starting point than if he were an utterly unproven backup, but it’s not necessarily predictive.

• 2016 Colts Offense (Luck) – 8th in points scored, 10th in yards gained
• 2017 Colts Offense (Brissett) – 30th in points scored, 31st in yards gained
• 2018 Colts Offense (Luck) – 5th in points scored, 7th in yards gained

The headline stats are damning, but a lot has changed for the better since Brissett last played.

1. He is more experienced – Imagine being a 2nd-year player shipped to a new team just before the season. Dealing with new surroundings, a new playbook, new coaches, new teammates. It’s a daunting task for any young quarterback much less one being asked to start immediately. Much less being asked to start in place of arguably the league’s best young pocket passer. Now he’s a 26-year-old veteran entering his fourth year, with a season of Frank Reich’s system under his belt. He also benefitted by watching Luck practice and execute the system.
2. The supporting cast has improved – T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle, and Marlon Mack remain but are joined by Eric Ebron, Devin Funchess, Nyheim Hines, and first-rounder Parris Campbell.
3. The offensive line is markedly better – The Colts offensive line was atrocious for years, and played a role in Luck’s injuries. Brissett was sacked 52 times in 15 games two seasons ago. Last year, thanks to the additions of rookies Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith, the line vaulted into the elite.
4. The defense has leveled up – The Colts defense ranked 30th defensively in both 2016 and 2017, but finished in the Top 10 a year ago thanks to savvy personnel additions and new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus’ attacking scheme.

Brissett unquestionably enters a more advantageous situation than he did two years ago.

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It All Comes Down to the Sack Rate

If Brissett’s 10% sack rate two years ago was the result of the perfect storm of challenging conditions, then the Colts offense can be productive – more productive than most doomsayers fear. But can we safely rely on the Colts improved line play as the cure? There are a number of reasons to be concerned:

1. He took too many hits in college – Waldman made a note of Brissett’s tendency to take hard hits. “Brissett often gets caught by a defender in mid-air or cut at the legs. The punishment inflicted looks like he’s a recipient of a finishing maneuver on the professional wrestling circuit,” Waldman noted in the 2016 RSP. “One of Brissett’s redeeming qualities is his patience in the pocket. Brissett has a big arm, and he’s willing to take punishment to hit an open receiver.”
2. He got sacked way too much in New England – While everyone knows about Brissett’s 10% sack rate in 2017, he had a 9.8% sack rate in 2016 with the Pats. In that same season, Brady (3.4%) and Garoppolo (4.5%) had much lower rates, behind the same offensive line.
3. Sack rate is highly correlated to the player, versus their situation – Footballguys Adam Harstad recently penned a length dissertation viewing sacks and pressure in the context of general global risk. In his conclusion, he says, “Why does study after study demonstrate that the preponderance of the responsibility for sacks taken falls on the quarterback himself rather than the players actively rushing and blocking? Because the quarterback is the guy with the football and therefore ultimately the guy who determines what level of risk he is willing to tolerate before getting rid of the football.”

It could be that Brissett’s combination of traits leads to more pressure. Even small breaks from the mean in terms of release, or reaction, or a tendency to be overconfident in moving around in the pocket, can quickly add up to a higher sack rate. It’s not impossible to put up big numbers under pressure, but it’s hard to do it sustainably. If his maturity and better pass-blocking take away his sack tendencies, he has everything else needed to thrive. But in a deep quarterback field, fantasy managers need not take the risk of rostering Brissett anywhere but the deepest of leagues.

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What to do at quarterback if you’ve already drafted Luck

A lot of fantasy drafts have already taken place. What you do next all comes down to the type of league.

• Best-Ball Leagues – If you rostered Luck in a best-ball league, this is a tough pill to swallow. If you’re a high-volume drafter, the fix here is to ramp up the number of drafts you do between now and the start of the season. Try to dilute the impact of Luck’s injury on your total best-ball player pool. If you’re not a high-volume drafter, all that’s left to do is hope whoever else you rostered at quarterback stays healthy and excels.
• 10- and 12-Team Redraft Leagues (1QB Starting Requirement) – Fortunately, this is the most popular league format and the easiest to deal with Luck’s surprise announcement. Quarterback is incredibly deep, and you likely have another quarterback you feel good about. If not, there are going to be starting-caliber options on the waiver wire. The following quarterbacks are owned in less than 60% of the top league-hosting sites: Lamar Jackson (<60% owned), Philip Rivers, Mitchell Trubisky (<55% owned), and Jameis Winston (<40% owned).
• Larger Redraft Leagues (1QB Starting Requirement) – If you’re in a 14-team or larger league, the waiver wire is likely thinner. But the following quarterbacks are available in 70% of leagues on the major hosting sites: Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, and Nick Foles. All have viable (if unlikely) paths to top-12 seasons.
• Superflex and 2QB Leagues – A small percentage of leagues allow multiple starting quarterbacks, but it’s also one of the fastest-growing league formats. The quarterback waiver wire is going to be thinner here, and Jacoby Brissett may be the best option available. Brissett is worth 10%-20% of your FAAB budget unless you already have two other top-25 quarterbacks on your roster beyond Luck.
• Dynasty Leagues – Don’t race to drop Luck in a dynasty roster. While we have no reason to think Luck will change his mind, he is only 29 years old, and stranger things have happened. I have Luck on three dynasty rosters and plan on holding onto him through the 2019 season, just to make sure he stays retired. If Luck was a key piece of your roster, you need to take an honest assessment of whether you can contend in 2019 without him. If you can, soldier on. If you cannot, start being aggressive about selling off other pieces and readying a rebuilding plan for 2020 and beyond.

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Re-Assessing the Fantasy Outlook

Jacoby Brissett – Low-end QB2 with Upside

Brissett has the coaching, system, supporting cast, and offensive line to thrive. But he was borderline terrible two years ago, and betting oddsmakers have drastically reduced their expectations for the team and its offensive output. It all comes down his avoidance of pressure. He should be a high-priority waiver claim in Week 1 or 2 if he looks poised.

Chad Kelly – Starting-caliber Talent with High-Character Risk

Chad Kelly has a long history of behavioral issues and was nearly out of the league before landing with the Colts as a third-stringer. He has the talent to play at the pro level, but his maturity makes him the highest of risks. As a staff, we’re somewhat divided on whether Kelly will see the field in 2019. But either way, it won’t happen until later in the year if it does.

T.Y. Hilton – Low-end WR2, and Don’t Panic

Hilton broke a four-year streak of 1,000-yard seasons in 2016, but it wasn’t a total disaster. He caught 57 passes for 966 yards and a career-low four touchdowns; he finished WR25. But he maintained his world-class per-catch average (16.9 yards) and had a stable catch rate. View WR25 as Hilton’s floor, but it won’t take much improvement from Brissett to push Hilton back into the WR18-20 range. It’s not what you hoped for if you already drafted him, but it’s not going to derail your season.

Marlon Mack – Low-end RB2 with Downside

Marlon Mack is a talented running back, but he shares the backfield with Nyheim Hines, who has flourished as a pass-catcher. Mack’s fantasy fortunes are inextricably linked to positive game scripts.

In wins, Mack averages 15.0 fantasy points per game. In losses, it falls to 6.7 points per game. Hopefully, the improved offensive line and Reich’s offensive system will insulate his floor, but there’s no way Luck’s retirement isn’t a net negative for Mack.

Nyheim Hines – A Contrarian Winner, Particularly in PPR Leagues

Hines is the only player on the roster who may benefit from Luck’s retirement.

Hines’ value is tied into his receiving ability, and he was twice as productive (14.3 points per game) in losses compared to wins (7.5 points per game). Hines could be a PPR-dynamo as the primary beneficiary of dump-off passes and pass-heavy game scripts as the Colts play catch up.

Eric Ebron – Falls out of the Top 10

Eric Ebron finished TE4 last year because he scored 13 touchdowns on 110 targets. Touchdown regression and a reduction in targets because of Jack Doyle’s return from injury already made Ebron a less-than-stellar choice as your No. 1 tight end. With Brissett taking over, and the overall pie shrinking, Ebron will be lucky to finish at the bottom of the TE1 tier.

Jack Doyle – Stable as a Viable Flex Play in PPR Leagues

Doyle caught 79% of his passed in 2016 (59 receptions on 75 targets) for 584 yards and 5 touchdowns. He didn’t have to contend with Ebron back then, but his ability to work the short area play well with Brissett’s tendencies. Doyle can be a viable flex play in TE-premium leagues, at least in favorite defensive matchups. But he’s not worth drafting in standard redraft leagues.

Devin Funchess, Parris Campbell, Chester Rogers – From Deep Sleepers to Afterthoughts

It’s worth taking late-round fliers on lottery ticket players from elite offenses. It’s rarely worth the risk in league-average (or worse) offenses. Let these players fall off your draft board, and consider cutting them if you’ve already drafted in your next waiver period.

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Twitter: @FBGWood

Email: Wood@Footballguys.com