Slate Summary
12:00 PM ET Kickoff
- Cotton Bowl: Memphis vs. Penn State (-7), o/u 59.5
- Camping World Bowl: Iowa State vs. Notre Dame (-3.5), o/u 53
- Peach Bowl (CFP Semifinal): Oklahoma vs. LSU (-13.5), o/u 76
- Fiesta Bowl (CFP Semifinal): Ohio State vs. Clemson (-2.5), o/u 63
If you have any questions, comments, or concerns about anything pertaining to this article or this weekend's slate of games, feel free to reach out to me on twitter @ThaGreatZambino!
MEMPHIS VS PENN STATE
Memphis
The Memphis Tigers had their head coach and offensive play-caller, Mike Norvell, hired away by the Florida State Seminoles following their victory in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. This turnover at the top, with the keys to the program going to Ryan Silverfield, previously the team's deputy head coach and offensive line coach. Silverfield has stated that he is comfortable calling the plays if he needs to, but he will have his work cut out for himself if he ultimately chooses to do so, as a matchup against Penn State's top-flight defense will be the toughest of the season for Memphis. On the ground, the Tigers spread the work primarily across the different players, when fully healthy. Kenny Gainwell and Patrick Taylor, Jr. typically see the most action on the ground, with Gainwell averaging 16 carries per game over the last 4 games and Taylor, Jr. averaging 10.75 carries per game since returning to action about a month ago. Neither player's projected rushing production is particularly enticing this weekend, as they face a stout Penn State run defense (2.6 yards per carry allowed is the best mark of any team on this slate of games.) Gainwell's contributions through the air are intriguing, however, as he commands over four targets per game. At his top-end price tag, Gainwell should primarily be utilized as a contrarian tournament option on this slate. Through the air, Brady White may be in for a long day at the office this weekend, as Penn State ranks 11th in the nation with 39 total sacks of opposing quarterbacks. White heavily favors his top two wide receivers when he airs it out: Antonio Gibson and Damonte Coxie. Coxie averages 10 targets per game over his last 5 outings, including 16 in the AAC Championship Game. Gibson, on the other hand, is an all-around playmaker that the Tigers make a concerted effort to feed the ball to. Gibson will line up both in the backfield (5 carries per game over the last 5 weeks) and out wide (5.2 targets per game over that same stretch of games.) Including his 1 kickoff return for a score, Gibson has tallied 8 touchdowns over the last 5 weeks, and he provides much-needed salary relief, specifically on DraftKings, where he costs just $4,800, this weekend. One final contrarian option to consider for the Tigers is Kedarian Jones, a cheap pass-catching option that could see increased with tight end Joey Magnifico sidelined. Magnifico's workload through the air was inconsistent, but with him out of the picture due to a knee injury, Jones makes for an interesting tournament target, as he costs only $3,900 on DraftKings and $6,300 on FanDuel.
Penn State
Penn State's offense is poised to return starting quarterback Sean Clifford to the fold after he missed the end of the Ohio State game and Rutgers game due to a leg injury. When healthy, Clifford is a strong fantasy asset, scoring at least 21.6 DraftKings points in 8 out of 11 games and at least 24.9 DraftKings points in 7 out of 11. Clifford's dual-threat capabilities offer a strong floor and ceiling of production, especially this weekend against Memphis' poor run defense. Overall, in the context of Saturday's slate, Clifford makes the cut as one of the few players that are viable to fill either a quarterback or super-flex spot in cash-game lineups. Then, at running back, Journey Brown emerged down the stretch of the 2019 season as Penn State's number-one running back. Before the team's final four games, Penn State's backfield was very much a running-back-by-committee. However, following an injury to Noah Cain, Brown assumed a larger role in the Nittany Lions' rushing attack. Brown posted 15.2 carries per game over the final four games of the year to go along with at least 14.1 DraftKings points in all 4 outings, and 23.0 points or more in 3 out of those 4. Noah Cain is likely going to play in the team's bowl game, but he was reportedly available for the final three games of Penn State's season with just one carry to show for himself over that span. Brown, especially at his medial $4,900 price tag on DraftKings and $7,700 on FanDuel, is a strong option at running back in all formats. Penn State's receiving corps is difficult to project ahead of the Cotton Bowl, as receiver KJ Hamler is reportedly dealing with a severe sinus infection and 103-degree fever this week. Any updates regarding his health will be added in bold red font below this game's breakdown, but as it stands, he is a tournament-only option, as it is unknown how these ailments may impact his performance on gameday. Should Hamler's role in Penn State's passing attack be mitigated due to sickness, Pat Freiermuth would likely step up as the team's number-one pass-catcher on the day. Freiermuth, one of the nation's most impressive tight ends, offers massive savings at just $4,300 on DraftKings and $6,700 on FanDuel. Hamler's condition worsens ahead of kickoff, Freiermuth would become a cash-viable receiving option.
PRIMARY OPTIONS: QB Sean Clifford, RB Journey Brown, WR Antonio Gibson
SECONDARY OPTIONS: WR Damonte Coxie, WR Kedarian Jones, WR KJ Hamler, WR Pat Freiermuth, RB Kenny Gainwell
IOWA STATE VS. NOTRE DAME
Iowa State
The Iowa State Cyclones are punching a bit above their weight class in the Camping World Bowl this year. Following a 7-5 campaign that featured its fair share of startlingly-strong and poor performances, the Cyclones meet up with a 10-win Notre Dame team in their bowl game. Iowa State is the underdog in this game, which features the lowest projected total of any game on the slate, but there may be an opportunity to attack this game from a tournament perspective. Under center, Brock Purdy impressed in his first full season as Iowa State's quarterback. Purdy will not break the bank on either DraftKings or FanDuel, and he projects as a middle-of-the-road passer on this slate. However, Purdy's ceiling gets a significant increase, thanks to a heavy dose of narrative. Typically, a 10-win Notre Dame team earns a trip to a New Year's Six (NY6) bowl game or at least a higher-profile non-NY6 game than the Camping World Bowl. While it is an imperfect comparison, earlier this week Miami's starting quarterback Jarren Williams said that his side was simply "going through the motions" and that the players were unmotivated for their game against Louisiana Tech, regardless of what their coaches said or did. There is a certain level of expectation that accompanies playing at a storied program like Miami or Notre Dame. When teams fall short of those expectations, there is no telling how young collegiate athletes will react. Iowa State has the potential to be a direct beneficiary from a lack of motivation on behalf of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. However, this is purely narrative-based and unable to be confidently projected ahead of time. For that reason, Purdy (and the rest of Iowa State's offense) is to be targeted in tournaments, where we seek high-risk, high-reward options over the optimal options in many cases. Purdy typically peppers three main pass-catchers with the majority of his targets. Deshaunte Jones leads the way with over 7.0 targets per game, including 3 games of 11 or more targets. Jones works primarily on shorter routes, making great use of his elite yards-after-catch capabilities. Next, La'Michael Pettway commands just under 7.0 targets per game. Pettway also has three games under his belt this season with double-digit targets, and he tends to work deeper down the field, running a more conventional route tree at the wide receiver position. The differences between these two receivers are simply that Jones' target volume is more secure, which also offers a strong floor and ceiling of production, but Pettway is more likely to erupt on a lower target total thanks to his ability to work downfield. The third primary pass-catcher in Iowa State's offense is tight end, Charlie Kolar. Kolar is one of the nation's best tight ends, and he is a massive presence in the red zone, as he leads the team with seven receiving touchdowns this year. Kolar does very little work after the catch compared to Jones and Pettway, and he has just one double-digit target to his name this year, which is the reason for his medial $4,900 price tag on DraftKings. Lastly, in the backfield, freshman Breece Hall took over the starting job for Iowa State in Week 7, and he has not looked back since. Hall has finished each start with at least 100 rushing yards or a score, producing at least 14.3 DraftKings points every week. Typically, a matchup with Notre Dame's defense would be one to avoid, but on this slate, it is one of the softest matchups available to a running back, as the Fighting Irish rank second-worst on the slate in total rushing yards allowed per game, yards per carry allowed, and rush attempts per first down allowed. Hall is a viable option for cash games this weekend, but he is likely the most expensive running back worth considering for this style of contest.
Notre Dame
While the Notre Dame Fighting Irish undoubtedly had higher hopes for this season than the Camping World Bowl, their 2019 campaign was quite impressive, aside from their two losses to Georgia and Michigan. Quarterback Ian Book was a driving force behind this offense's success this season, as he finished with a 33-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio through the air to go along with over 500 yards and 4 scores on the ground. This weekend, against Iowa State, whose pass defense grades as the weakest of any team on the slate, Ian Book is poised to finish his senior season on a high note. Book is relatively affordable on both DraftKings and FanDuel, offering a significant discount relative to the top-end choices like Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow, making him a viable option for both cash-games and tournaments. In the backfield, Tony Jones, Jr. leads the way, and although his rushing totals have been unimpressive in recent weeks, the Fighting Irish should have a significant advantage in the trenches over the Cyclones. Iowa State's run defense allowed a first down every 4.2 rush attempts this season, which is the worst mark of any team on the slate. Jones, Jr. does not play much of a role in Notre Dame's passing attack, which likely keeps him out of consideration in cash-games. Still, the potential for another 100-yard eruption like he provided against Louisville, Virginia, or USC is certainly there, making him a strong tournament option. At wide receiver, Chase Claypool and Cole Kmet stand out above the rest. Claypool leads the team with 9.0 targets per game this year, while Kmet averages 5.9 per game himself. Claypool's finish to the 2019 season, and likely his collegiate career, has been impressive, to say the least, registering 19.0 DraftKings points or more in each of his last 5 games. Kmet, although not as high-scoring, is equally as reliable, scoring at least 10.5 DraftKings points in 8 out of his 9 games this season. Kmet offers a significant discount from Claypool on both sites, in large part thanks to Claypool's red zone dominance (eight touchdowns over his last four games,) but both are viable options in all formats this weekend. Consider stacking Kmet and Claypool alongside quarterback Ian Book in tournaments this weekend, as this trio may fly under the radar as a high-upside group on a slate headlined by flashier options.
PRIMARY OPTIONS: RB Breece Hall, WR La'Michael Pettway (FD only at $6,500,) QB Ian Book, WR Chase Claypool, WR Cole Kmet
SECONDARY OPTIONS: QB Brock Purdy, WR Deshaunte Jones, WR La'Michael Pettway (on DK,) RB Tony Jones, Jr.
LSU VS. OKLAHOMA
LSU
The LSU Tigers' prolific offense, led by their Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, Joe Burrow, is expected to light up the scoreboard once again this weekend against the Oklahoma Sooners. Burrow is one of the most expensive players on the slate, but justifiably so, as he averages over 35 DraftKings points per game this season. Even against top-tier defenses like Georgia, he still posted 39.66 DraftKings points in the SEC Championship game. This weekend he gets to take on an inferior and depleted Oklahoma Sooners defense. Oklahoma's defense pales in comparison to most SEC defenses, and they will be without two of their top defenders in the Peach Bowl. Along the defensive line, Ronnie Perkins, the team-leader in sacks, will miss the game due to suspension. Additionally, in the secondary, Delarrin Turner-Yell, the team's second-leading tackler, will miss this game due to a collarbone injury. Facing LSU's incredible passing attack is tough enough, but doing it without two of a team's best defenders is perhaps the toughest test in the nation. Expect Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson to continue their breakout seasons against Oklahoma this weekend, as both command a high-volume of targets, which they consistently convert into top-flight fantasy production. Burrow, Chase, and Jefferson are all elite cash-game options this weekend on what is projected to be the slate's highest-scoring offense.
LSU running back situation
Clyde Edwards-Helaire's rise to stardom in LSU's backfield has been one of the best stories of the 2019 season of college football. Unfortunately, in the lead up to the College Football Playoff semifinal against the Oklahoma Sooners, Edwards-Helaire sustained a hamstring injury that has his status for this game in jeopardy. Since originally sustaining the injury late last week, Edwards-Helaire has not practiced whatsoever, and he was not present at the team's media day leading up to the game. Head coach Ed Orgeron maintains that he is questionable for this game, but with each passing day that Edwards-Helaire is missing, he becomes increasingly unlikely to play on Saturday. Should he play, he is a secondary option, as a hamstring injury has a high likelihood of reinjury, and his chances of playing a fraction of a game would be exceptionally high. If Edwards-Helaire is unable to go, Tyrion Davis-Price would likely step into the starting lineup. While he would not play the bell-cow role that Edwards-Helaire typically does, Davis-Price, if starting, is a near must-play on both sites at his bottom-dollar price tag. Keep an eye out for any mention of Clyde Edwards-Helaire's availability for this game leading up to kickoff, and if I spot anything, this section of the article will be updated in bold red font.
LSU RB Update at midnight Saturday AM: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is expected to play Saturday afternoon, but how much is uncertain. Head coach Ed Orgeron said that he is unsure how much Edwards-Helaire will be able to play, if at all. This statement leads one to believe his typical workload will at least partially be divvied up amongst LSU's backups. Tyrion Davis-Price is still viable on this slate, but he is not a lock by any means without news that Edwards-Helaire is unable to go.
Oklahoma
The Oklahoma Sooners, now making their third consecutive appearance in the College Football Playoff, are led offensively by quarterback Jalen Hurts. Although Hurts' weakest fantasy performances of the season have come down the stretch, his expectations for this weekend's game are still as high as any player on this slate. On DraftKings, his price has fallen down to $8,100, but on FanDuel, he sits at $11,000. While it is undeniably difficult to fit Hurts into lineups alongside another top-priced quarterback like Joe Burrow, it should be a priority on this slate. Head coach and play-caller Lincoln Riley's track record of developing a successful offensive gameplan in this particular scenario with nearly a full month to gameplan is stellar, and there is no reason to doubt him now. At running back, Kennedy Brooks is primed to be the Sooners' only active and healthy player to have seen significant playing time this season. Trey Sermon went down with a season-ending injury down the stretch, and Rhamondre Stevenson will be suspended for this weekend's game after failing a drug test. Brooks, whose price is pedestrian on both FanDuel and DraftKings, should be a top target at the running back position on this slate. At wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb ranks amongst the nation's most talented pass-catchers. His role has typically grown with the situation, which makes sense as Jalen Hurts has depended upon his most talented offensive weapons in high-stress situations. Lamb's highest-volume games have been Oklahoma's highest-profile games this season, and the national semifinal tops that leaderboard for the Sooners. Expect Lamb to get involved in the team's offense early and often this weekend, making him an elite candidate for lineups across the board, and well-worth his top-end price tag. Otherwise, look to Charleston Rambo, and exceptional deep threat, to play a significant role in Oklahoma's passing attack. Rambo, the team's second-leading receiver, has had some monstrous performances through the air for the Sooners, and if LSU's defensive gameplan is designed around containing CeeDee Lamb, Rambo stands to benefit the most. Overall, Lamb is an elite wide receiver option on this weekend's slate of games, and he will likely dominate regardless of LSU's defensive gameplan. Still, Charleston Rambo is a high-risk, high-reward tournament option to gain exposure to this passing attack in case the Tigers' defense leaves inferior coverage players to defend him.
PRIMARY OPTIONS: QB Joe Burrow, QB Jalen Hurts, RB Kennedy Brooks, RB Tyrion Davis-Price (pending Edwards-Helaire news,) WR Ja'Marr Chase, WR Justin Jefferson, WR CeeDee Lamb
SECONDARY OPTIONS: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (if active,) WR Charleston Rambo
CLEMSON VS. OHIO STATE
Clemson
Unlike any other team in the nation, the Clemson Tigers seemingly have an ability midway through the season to shift into high-gear and take their play to a level nobody knew they had. This season, they seemingly made this shift after their 21-20 victory over North Carolina in their 5th game of the year. Since that point, they have allowed no more than 17 points in any game, while scoring at least 38 points every week, and at least 45 in 7 out of 8. Under center, Trevor Lawrence's best performances of his young career have come when the lights shine the brightest. For that reason, even against a supremely talented Ohio State defense that includes one of the most dominant collegiate pass-rushers of all-time, Chase Young, Lawrence is a viable quarterback option in all formats. Out wide, his pass-catching options are as talented as any in the nation. Justyn Ross seemingly exploded onto the scene last season during the College Football Playoff. As a freshman, Ross posted 6 catches for at least 148 yards and 1 score in Clemson's 2 playoff games, and his receiving volume trends upwards as the games get tighter and more difficult. Expect Ross' receiving volume to increase from his regular-season mark of 7.2 targets per game during the playoff, which makes his $5,700 price on DraftKings and $7,600 price on FanDuel much too low. Tee Higgins, Ross' running-mate at the position is also a premier talent at the position. While his target totals are not as robust as Ross', Higgins' touchdown numbers are much more impressive. He stands out alongside Ross as the obvious top options for Trevor Lawrence through the air in this game, at a $100 discount relative to Ross, Higgins is a strong cash-game option on DraftKings as well. However, on FanDuel, where he costs $8,500, Higgins is best suited for tournaments. In the backfield, Travis Etienne is inarguably one of the nation's most talented running backs, but the Tigers do a great job of managing his workload. Despite carrying the ball no more than 17 times in any game this year, Etienne has tallied 12 touchdowns across his last 7 games, including 6 100-yard rushing performances. Etienne will not come cheap, as his fantasy production has been incredible down the stretch this year, and the matchup against the Ohio State Buckeyes' stout defense is certainly less-than-ideal, but he warrants consideration as a potential contrarian running back option for tournaments.
Ohio State
Justin Fields, whose 2019 campaign earned him a trip to New York, and a top-four finish in Heisman voting sustained a knee injury late in Ohio State's victory over the Penn State Nittany Lions in the final regular-season game of the season. While he played through the injury and impressed in the second half of the Big Ten Championship Game, Fields is still feeling the effects of the injury, as he said he is operating at somewhere between 80 and 85-percent right now. Fields' price is a bit too high on both DraftKings and FanDuel to warrant consideration in cash-games, and given this difficult matchup, he is a worrying tournament target as well. On a short slate featuring only four games, it is difficult to ax anyone, especially a player as talented as Justin Fields, from the player pool entirely when building tournament lineups, but in this case, it may be warranted. In the backfield, J.K. Dobbins stands out as one of the top running backs on the slate, in spite of an expectedly difficult matchup. Clemson's defense is one of the best in the nation across the board, allowing just 106.2 yards per game on the ground and 138.5 per game through the air. However, as a true bell-cow running back, J.K. Dobbins is an intriguing tournament option. Dobbins shredded numerous top-flight defenses throughout the season, and while most pale in comparison to what the Clemson Tigers have to offer, he likely possesses the highest upside of any running back on this slate. Ohio State is notably thin when it comes to viable wide receivers for fantasy purposes. Their receiving corps is exceptionally deep, and Justin Fields typically spreads the ball to numerous pass-catchers every week. The team's top two options in this regard are Chris Olave and K.J. Hill, with the former leading the team in receiving yards and touchdowns and the latter leading the team in total receptions this year. While both players are reasonably priced, especially on DraftKings, they would need to be significantly underpriced to be viable in cash-games this weekend. Both are likely only worthy of consideration in game stacks alongside numerous pieces of the Clemson Tigers offense.
PRIMARY OPTIONS: WR Justyn Ross, WR Tee Higgins
SECONDARY OPTIONS: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Travis Etienne, RB J.K. Dobbins
