With the regular season coming to a close, we have just one weekend of football standing between us and bowl season. The season has flown by, it seems, yet there is still so much left up in the air with at-most three games left on any team's schedule. Much has been made of the College Football Playoff rankings throughout the season, but with just one game left before the final, and most important, rankings of the season come out. As it stands now, LSU and Ohio State have likely locked up a spot in the playoff regardless of their conference championship results. Then, Clemson is likely in regardless of the result of the ACC Championship Game, but in the event of maximum (nearly unimaginable) chaos, a loss this weekend could feasibly give the Playoff Committee reason for pause before locking Clemson into the four-team playoff. However, this "maximum chaos" scenario is so unlikely that for the sake of the upcoming thought exercise/playoff ramifications guide, we will say that Clemson has locked themselves into a spot in this year's playoff. The final spot in the playoff is truly up for grabs heading into this weekend, and here is a brief guide to the weekend's action and the potential ramifications of each relevant game's outcome:
- If Georgia beats LSU in the SEC Championship Game (30.92-percent chance of happening, according to betting markets), Georgia locks up the final spot in the playoff, and all other results are irrelevant.
However, if Georgia loses, as expected...
- If #5 Utah dominates #13 Oregon, they have a strong case against whichever team wins the Big 12 Championship Game. However, they are not an overwhelming favorite over each team, as the Big 12 Champion will finish off their resume with an extremely high-quality win.
- If #6 Oklahoma defeats #7 Baylor in emphatic fashion and #5 Utah wins (but does not dominate), Oklahoma has a strong case to leapfrog #5 Utah and make the playoff. Oklahoma would be the favorite for the #4 spot.
- If #6 Oklahoma squeaks out a sloppy victory over #7 Baylor and #5 Utah wins, Oklahoma's case to leapfrog Utah is not nearly as strong. It would be a near toss-up between the two teams.
- #7 Baylor needs to dominate #6 Oklahoma from start-to-finish to warrant jumping over #5 Utah and making the playoff in the event of a non-dominant Utah victory in their championship game. Utah should still be the favorite in this scenario, but Baylor would give the Committee reason to rethink their decision.
- If #5 Utah loses, the winner of the Big 12 Championship Game should be the de facto #4 team in the nation. The Big 12 Championship Game on Saturday afternoon will effectively be the first game of the College Football Playoff if Oregon upsets Utah on Friday night.
Sunday, December 8th's College Football Playoff rankings are the only ones that ultimately matter for the sake of the final four teams that move onto the playoffs and many have theorized that all rankings up until this final iteration are driven by maximizing profits throughout the sport, rather than truly ranking the top-25 teams. If these skeptics are correct, then this all may be for naught, as the rankings up until this point may not accurately represent the true pulse of the room for the College Football Playoff Ranking Committee. However, regardless of how meaningful the rankings have been up until this point, Friday and Saturday will be filled with high-stakes college football from start to finish, with national title hopes on the line in multiple conference championship games. As we all sit on the edge of our seats, let's sweat some college football DFS one last time before bowl season kicks off. This should help you begin to construct your player pool for both cash games and tournaments this weekend:
Best of luck to everyone, and as always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns about this article, feel free to reach out to me on twitter @ThaGreatZambino!
STRATEGY NOTE
There is one fundamental difference between NFL DFS and College Football DFS, and that is lineup construction. A college football lineup removes the tight end and defense positions and replaces them with one super flex position. The super flex position can be filled by a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver. On nearly every single slate throughout the year rostering a second quarterback in the super flex position will be optimal in both cash games and tournaments. Keep this in mind all year when building lineups.
SLATE SNAPSHOT
Listed here are the most notable games for DFS purposes. In green are games with the highest projected totals, according to betting markets, and in red are the games with the lowest projected totals on the slate. Try to avoid using too many players in any single lineup from the game(s) in red. On the other hand, the game(s) in green should provide enough points and fantasy points across the board to make multiple pieces on each team viable for fantasy lineups.
- Oklahoma v. Baylor (neutral site) | Oklahoma -9.5, Total: 64.5
- Clemson v. Virginia (neutral site) | Clemson -28.5, Total: 57.5
- Cincinnati @ Memphis | Memphis -9, Total: 57.5
- Slate lacks any other high-end or low-end outliers, as all other totals are between 54.5 and 56.5 points.
QUARTERBACK
Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma, $9,000
Jalen Hurts makes his return to a DraftKings main slate of games this weekend in the Big 12 Championship Game against Baylor. Not only is this a must-win game for the Oklahoma Sooners, but "style points" will matter now more than ever for Oklahoma, assuming the Utah Utes take care of business on Friday night in the PAC 12 Championship Game against the Oregon Ducks. Entering this weekend's games, Utah ranks 5th in the nation, one spot outside of the playoff, with Oklahoma close behind at 6th. Should LSU beat Georgia in the SEC Championship Game as expected, one of Utah or Oklahoma is poised to move into the playoff picture with a victory. Oklahoma may need an impressive win over Baylor in their championship game to leapfrog the Utes and claim the final playoff spot. Jalen Hurts' 2019 campaign is one of the most impressive of any quarterback, especially from a fantasy perspective. Hurts scored at least 39.28 DraftKings points in every game against FBS competition except 1, a run-heavy game last weekend against Oklahoma State (he still scored 30) with little offensive production for either side. Hurts' price could justifiably reach $10,000 on DraftKings, and he would still warrant consideration in all formats. At $9,000, his combination of rushing and passing production in the Big 12 Championship Game, the game with the highest projected total on the slate, should be enough to approach, and likely exceed, 40 DraftKings points once again. Roster Hurts with confidence in all formats, as there is little reason to consider fading him in cash-games, and he has the highest ceiling on the slate.
Jaylon Henderson, Boise State, $6,400
After three strong performances as the team's starter with the original starter, Hank Bachmeier sidelined, Jaylon Henderson earned the starting quarterback role for the Boise State Broncos. Even after being listed third on the depth chart for Boise State (the Broncos rarely update their depth chart in-season and releasing one each week is merely a formality on most occasions,) Henderson started and led the Broncos to three straight victories. Now, ahead of their conference championship game, Boise State updated their depth chart to list Henderson as their starter, even with Bachmeier healthy. Across his 3 starts, Henderson posted 22.48, 23.98, and 25.62 DraftKings points, respectively. Now, he gets the softest matchup of any quarterback on the slate, as he leads Boise State into action against Hawaii. Hawaii's pass defense ranks third-worst on the slate in adjusted yards per attempt allowed against the pass and dead-last in attempts per first down allowed through the air. Henderson is one of the most affordable quarterbacks on the slate at just $6,400. Expect the redshirt senior to shine in the second-to-last college football game of his career with the Boise State Broncos vying to represent the Group-of-Six in a New Year's Six bowl game. As the top salary-saving option at the quarterback position this weekend, Henderson is a viable option in all formats.
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson, $7,700
Unlike any other team in the nation, the Clemson Tigers seem to have the ability to shift from third to fifth gear about halfway through the college football season. This year, putting the pedal to the metal resulted in seven consecutive games with at least three passing touchdowns for quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Across the last 7 games, Lawrence has averaged over 28.83 DraftKings points per game, scoring at least 24.02 in every game. In the ACC Championship Game, the Clemson Tigers are favored by about 28 points over Virginia, and Lawrence is poised to shred the Cavaliers through the air. The loss of cornerback Bryce Hall proved devastating for the team's pass defense, as they enter this weekend allowing 7.14 adjusted yards per attempt, the worst mark on the slate. Lawrence has also flashed a rushing floor this season that was practically unimaginable one year ago. Lawrence has recorded at least either 40 rushing yards or 1 rushing touchdown in 10 out of his 11 games against FBS competition this season. This rushing production also fosters a significantly higher ceiling for Lawrence, as he could feasibly combine a ceiling rushing performance (he posted a season-high 66 rushing yards last weekend) with his 3rd 300-yard passing day of the season en route to a massive fantasy day in his final tune-up before the College Football Playoff. At $7,700, Lawrence will not come cheap, but he makes for a high-floor, and high-ceiling option to either consider pairing with Jalen Hurts in cash games or use as a pivot away from Hurts in tournaments.
SECONDARY/TOURNAMENT OPTION
Charlie Brewer, Baylor, $7,600
While Jalen Hurts and the Oklahoma Sooners headline the Big 12 Championship Game, Charlie Brewer and the Baylor Bears could feasibly steal their thunder (and potential spot in the College Football Playoff) with an upset victory this weekend. Brewer and the Bears are nearly 10-point underdogs this weekend, and while an upset victory is unlikely, it is certainly within the realm of possibilities (the betting markets give Baylor approximately a 25.92-percent chance of winning on Saturday afternoon.) Should Baylor pull it off, it will almost certainly be thanks to a heroic performance from their quarterback, Charlie Brewer. Brewer is a dual-threat quarterback that has found the end zone 10 times on the ground this season, and he posted his 2nd-best fantasy performance of the season in the first meeting between these 2 teams. Brewer posted 33.26 DraftKings points in Baylor's lone loss of the season in Week 12, and this weekend he will need to shine even brighter if he wants to give his team any chance at making the College Football Playoff. On a short slate lacking many viable quarterbacks, Charlie Brewer is the ultimate tournament-only option under center. Oklahoma's defense is much stronger against the run than against the pass, and in the event of an upset, Baylor's quarterback will need to erupt in a likely shootout. Overshadowed by the Jalen Hurts on the opposite side of the ball, Charlie Brewer should be a contrarian option with an extremely high ceiling at quarterback this weekend. Consider stacking Brewer alongside Denzel Mims, his number-one wide receiver in tournaments here on the final full slate of games before bowl season.
RUNNING BACK
Kennedy Brooks, Oklahoma, $5,600
Kennedy Brooks, following an impressive freshman campaign, shared the backfield with not only Jalen Hurts, but Trey Sermon throughout the start of the 2019 season. Both Brooks and Sermon would likely start for the majority of Power-Five schools in the country, but in Oklahoma's crowded backfield, they were forced to split the running back duties. Unfortunately, Sermon went down with a season-ending injury four weeks ago against Iowa State, leaving Brooks with a near-bell-cow role for the Sooners. In the 4 games since Sermon's injury (including the Iowa State game,) Brooks has tallied 15, 18, 25, and 22 carries, respectively. Brooks' fantasy totals have been quite impressive during that span, with 23.8, 15.5, 17.9, and 25.0 DraftKings points in those 4 games, including 3 100-yard rushing days. This weekend, against Baylor, Brooks' price remains unadjusted for his new role, rising just $200 since Sermon went down with his injury. This weekend, at $5,600, Kennedy Brooks is one of the best running back options on the slate against Baylor's up-tempo offense, which has left its defense on the field for 73.9 plays per game, the most of any team on the slate. Expect Brooks to close in on 20 carries once again this weekend, which should be more than enough for him to reach value at his medial price. Consider locking Kennedy Brooks into lineups in contests of all formats this weekend, as Oklahoma is nearly 10-point favorites in the game with the highest total of any on the slate.
George Holani, Boise State, $5,600
George Holani, Boise State's number-one running back down the stretch this season, enters the team's conference championship game just 88 yards from reaching 1,000 rushing yards on the season. Officially, Holani is listed third on Boise State's depth chart at the running back position; however, this is not cause for concern, as Boise State rarely updates its depth chart throughout the season. Holani has led the team in carries in 5 out of their last 6 games, including 4 games with at least 16 carries down the stretch. This weekend, Holani and the Broncos face off against one of the nation's weakest run defenses. Hawaii's run defense ranks dead-last on the slate in rushing yards allowed per game (205.5 yards,) yards per carry allowed (5.7 yards,) rushing touchdowns allowed per game (2.4 touchdowns,) and rushing attempts per first down (a first down every 3.44 attempts.) The Boise State Broncos also enter this game as nearly two-touchdown favorites, which typically fosters a run-heavy offensive attack from the victors. All signs are pointing up for George Holani this weekend, and at $5,600, he will not break the bank. Roster George Holani confidently in all contests this weekend, as he makes for an excellent mid-priced option at running back.
Darrynton Evans, Appalachian State, $7,000
Darrynton Evans is the bell-cow running back for the Appalachian State Mountaineers this season. On the season, Evans has tallied over 215 carries, with no other Appalachian State player eclipsing the century mark. Evans has posted at least 17 carries in 7 out of his last 8 games, scoring 1.33 rushing touchdowns per game over that span of action. In his conference championship game, Evans matches up against an especially poor Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns' run defense. This season, Louisiana's defensive line ranks bottom-10 in the nation in standard line yards, a metric used to accredit rushing production to the team's defensive front based on weighted measurements of each individual rush the team has attempted or defended. Louisiana's defense also ranks second-worst on this slate in yards per attempt allowed (4.5 yards) as well as attempts per first down allowed on the ground (3.69 attempts.) Overall, this clash between Appalachian State and Louisiana grades as one of the slate's biggest mismatches in the trenches. Lastly, the Appalachian State Mountaineers enter this weekend's game against the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns as nearly seven-point favorites, which should foster another high-volume rushing day for Evans. At $7,000, Darrynton Evans will not come cheap, but his high-volume projection on the ground, coupled with an elite matchup, makes him a strong candidate to rank as the slate's number-one running back in projected points, disregarding salary.
Travis Etienne, Clemson, $7,300
This weekend, the fourth running back option is not a "Secondary/Tournament Option," as Travis Etienne grades as a strong running back option in all formats. Etienne, although not a high-volume running back (0 20-carry games this season,) is one of the nation's most talented running backs, and Clemson's propensity to light up the scoreboard affords him frequent opportunities to find the end zone. Clemson's star running back has scored 12 touchdowns over his last 6 games, and at least 1 in every game since ACC Conference play started. In spite of his low-volume rushing days, Etienne has also eclipsed the century mark in six out of his last seven games. As shown by his sky-high mark of 8.3 yards per carry, Etienne's big-play ability is unmatched at the position, and he is a threat to break off a long run at all times. Virginia's run defense ranks fourth-worst on the slate in attempts per first down allowed, at 4.59 attempts, and Clemson's offensive line grades as one of the strongest in the nation. Expect the Tigers to dominate in the trenches, allowing Travis Etienne to gash yet another opponent on the ground this weekend in the ACC Championship Game. Travis Etienne is arguably the highest-upside running back on the slate, as he has yet to see a full workload of over 20 carries this season. Should he reach that total this weekend, there is legitimate potential for a 40-point performance on DraftKings. Even on his typical allotment of carries, expect Etienne to eclipse 20 DraftKings points with another 100-yard performance, likely accompanied by at least 1 touchdown, along with potential receiving work against the Virginia Cavaliers. At $7,300, he is the high-upside option in the $7,000 range given the talent of both him and his offensive line. However, there are likely higher-floor options, like Darrynton Evans, in softer matchups and higher expected rushing volume, but lower talent levels and disparities in their respective matchups.
WIDE RECEIVER
Justyn Ross, Clemson, $5,700
Choosing between Justyn Ross and Tee Higgins is the college football DFS equivalent of choosing your favorite child. This weekend, however, Ross edges out Higgins as the stronger option at the wide receiver position, but just barely. Ross has led the Clemson Tigers in targets in 7 out of the 11 games he has played this season, but Higgins' touchdown numbers are more impressive, giving him the edge in fantasy production to date this season. Ross' role in Clemson's offense has grown as the matchups have gotten tougher this season, as he registered 16 targets against Texas A&M and 11 targets against South Carolina, posting 22.4 and 29.0 DraftKings points in each of the two games, respectively. Ross' $5,700 price tag also checks in $300 lower than Tee Higgins, who sits at $6,000 this weekend. Overall, this is a fantastic matchup for the Tigers' passing attack, as they face the Virginia Cavaliers in the ACC Championship Game. Virginia's pass defense ranks dead-last on the slate in adjusted yards per attempt allowed, and their star cornerback, Bryce Hall, is out for the season after suffering a gruesome leg injury earlier this season. Without Hall in the fold, their secondary has suffered, and Justyn Ross is an elite candidate to capitalize on this weakness this weekend. Roster Ross with confidence, as he is one of the most talented pass-catchers in the country. At $5,700, he is an affordable top-end option at the wide receiver position, and he is viable in contests of any format.
JaCorey Sullivan, Central Michigan, $5,100
JaCorey Sullivan's role in Central Michigan's passing attack has grown down the stretch this season. Sullivan averages 8.75 targets per game over his last 5 contests, including 4 games of at least 9 targets (and 1 game at 6 targets,) which is a signficant increase from his year-long average of 6.2 targets per game. Sullivan has hauled in at least five receptions in five consecutive games, and the Central Michigan offense should see higher volume all around this weekend against Miami (Ohio), who run the second-fastest offense on the slate at 73.3 plays per game. Sullivan, an all-conference receiver in the MAC, sits at just $5,100 this weekend, an incredible discount thanks to his flukey inability to find the end zone. Sullivan has just three touchdowns on the season, a stunningly-low total for a player commanding such a large market share of his team's total targets, especially recently. Predicting regression, positive or negative, within a short-term window is always risky, but it is difficult to find a player more "due" to find the end zone than JaCorey Sullivan this weekend. Consider rostering Sullivan in all formats, as he proved last wee that the reported foot injury that hindered him in practice recently will not impact his on-field performance once the bright lights turn on.
Jason-Matthew Sharsh, Hawaii, $5,000
Much like JaCorey Sullivan for Central Michigan, Jason-Matthew Sharsh's role in Hawaii's passing attack has grown down the home stretch of the 2019 season. As Jojo Ward has seemingly been relegated to a second-tier role in Hawaii's offense (6, 5, and 4 targets across the last 3 games after averaging 8.3 per game over the first 10 games this year,) Sharsh's role has grown. Sharsh has scored at least 11.3 DraftKings points in 4 out of his last 5 outings, while hauling in at least 5 passes in all 5 games. The junior wide receiver averages 8.5 targets per game over his previous 5 games and 9.33 targets per game over his last 3- these two data points do a great job encapsulating the growth in his role in the team's offense recently. This weekend, against Boise State, Sharsh sits at just $5,000, a fantastic bargain for a high-volume receiver in a high-volume passing attack. Additionally, Hawaii enters this game as nearly two-touchdown underdogs tot he Boise State Broncos. Typically, teams in Hawaii's position that are playing from behind trend towards an especially pass-heavy offensive attack, which could increase the team's aerial volume, and in-turn, Sharsh's target totals this weekend. At $5,000, it is tough to identify a safer and stronger value option at the wide receiver position, as Jason-Matthew Sharsh is viable in all formats.
Khalil Shakir, Boise State, $5,400
Since Jaylon Henderson took over as Boise State's starting quarterback three weeks ago, Khalil Shakir's role in the Broncos' passing attack has stabilized atop the depth chart. Shakir averages 7.66 targets per game since Henderson became the team's starter with 7, 7, and 9 targets across the 3 games, respectively. With at least 20.8 DraftKings points in 2 out of the 3 games Henderson has started, Shakir is the team's most reliable fantasy producer now that the redshirt senior has taken over under center. This weekend, Boise State also gets an exceptionally soft matchup against Hawaii. Hawaii's pass defense ranks dead-last on the slate, allowing a first down every 3.098 pass attempts. Additionally, they rank third-worst on the slate, permitting 7.015 adjusted yards per pass attempt. As a whole, Boise State's offense is poised to erupt this weekend, and Shakir makes for an elite piece of their aerial attack to pair with Jaylon Henderson in a low-cost stack totaling just $11,800 for both players. Khalil Shakir warrants consideration in all formats, as he is in an elite matchup with a very stable volume of targets coming his way since the Broncos made a change at the quarterback position.
SECONDARY/TOURNAMENT OPTION
Thomas Hennigan, Appalachian State, $4,800
Mid-way through their game two weeks ago, Appalachian State lost its number-one wide receiver, Corey Sutton, to a season-ending knee injury. Last weekend, in the team's first game without Sutton, an all-conference player last season, Thomas Hennigan emerged as the team's new number-one option through the air. Hennigan commanded 11 targets, more than twice as many as the team's next-most-targeted pass-catcher. Hennigan hauled in all 11 targets, converting them into 140 yards through the air on the day, good for 28.4 DraftKings points after adding in his single 4-yard rush. Thomas Hennigan was already the Mountaineers' established number-two wide receiver with Sutton in the mix, and now, without him, Hennigan is poised to erupt down the home stretch of his junior season. Hennigan is more suited for tournaments this weekend, as there is only one full-game of data on Appalachian State's offense without Corey Sutton at the end of the season, and this picture can change dramatically from week-to-week. Additionally, Lousiana's pass defense is the definitive strength of the side, as they rank as a middle-of-the-pack unit against to pass as opposed to a bottom-feeder against the run. At just $4,800, Thomas Hennigan is extremely cheap this weekend, and he is acceptable in cash games due to this bottom-dollar price; however, as previously stated, he is primarily a tournament option on this slate.
