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Don't Believe These Commonly Held Coaching Misconceptions

NFL analysis has never been more rigorous. The ever-increasing popularity of the sport combined with nearly ubiquitous access to data and analytical tools has led to an exponential increase in thoughtful data-driven scrutiny. Yet, we can all still be victims of what some call “Narrative Street.” Sometimes, even when the data is right in front of us, we hold onto false conclusions because it fits the way we remember the sport.

For example, a few years ago, Rob Ryan – twin brother of Rex – was referred to as a defensive genius all the time. Every major sports television network spoke of his hiring to a staff as the kind of transformational addition that could mean the difference between a high draft pick and a deep playoff run. But, even a cursory analysis of Ryan’s coaching tenure painted a much less optimistic picture.

With that painful memory as a backdrop, here are a few 2019 coaching truisms that bear closer scrutiny:

1. The Buccaneers Bruce Arians is a can’t-miss, transformational play-caller
2. Kevin Stefanski will doom the Vikings passing game as he focuses on a power-running offense
3. The Colts offense won’t miss offensive line coach Dave DeGuglielmo
4. Steve Spagnuolo will fix what ails the Chiefs defense
5. Dirk Koetter will emphasize, and reinvigorate the Falcons rushing attack

Is Bruce Arians a can’t miss play-caller? Not according to his own history.

When it was announced Bruce Arians was coming out of retirement to take over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it was as though the second coming of Bill Walsh was descending from the heavens to rescue the woeful Buccaneers from offensive purgatory. After all, Arians was the super-creative offensive mind behind those dynamic Arizona Cardinals offenses that resurrected Carson Palmer’s career and turned David Johnson into a league winner. But here’s the problem, those few Cardinals years appear to be the outliers in Arians’ history, not the norm.

Did you know that in 14 NFL seasons as a play-caller, Arians has only fielded three top-10 offenses? But surely that’s not a fair representation of things because Arians can’t be held accountable for the dumpster fires in Cleveland in 2001-03, right? Here’s the problem with that convenient logic – Arians coached five years in Arizona and has as many bottom-third offenses (2-2014 and 2017) as he did top-10 offenses (2-2015 and 2016). His teams averaged 14th in yards and 15th in points in Arizona. Not bad, but hardly something that screams transformational.

What did all three of Arians’ top-10 offenses have in common? Excellent defenses accompanied them.

• 2007 Pittsburgh Steelers – 1st in yards allowed, 2nd in points allowed
• 2015 Arizona Cardinals – 5th in yards allowed, 7th in points allowed
• 2016 Arizona Cardinals – 2nd in yards allowed, 14th in points allowed

Why is that important? Because Arians inherits a Buccaneers defense ranked 27th in yards allowed and 31st in points allowed.

Another important consideration is turnovers. Even though the Buccaneers ranked near the top of the league in passing stats, Tampa Bay also ranked 32nd in turnovers. But those expecting Arians to fix that are going to be sorely disappointed.

Arians’ coached offenses have only been efficient (Top 10) at minimizing turnovers three times. His teams have ranked in the bottom third in turnovers six of 14 seasons, including three of his five seasons in Arizona.

What it means for fantasy: Temper expectations. The Buccaneers led the league in passing yards last year and ranked 3rd in touchdown passes. There isn’t much room for improvement, and Arians has had plenty of years that looked much worse than what Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick produced last year under Todd Monken’s watch. If you’re targeting Mike Evans and Chris Godwin based on what they’ve already been capable of, that’s fine. But don’t assume everyone in Tampa Bay, including a pair of uninspired running backs in Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones, are destined for breakthrough seasons because Bruce Arians has the golden touch.

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Kevin Stefanski will not stymie the Vikings passing attack, and Gary Kubiak is the insurance policy

Kevin Stefanski took over play-calling in Minnesota for the final three games last year, and it’s sent the fantasy industry into a panic. The Vikings went 2-1 in Stefanski’s stint, but the offensive aggressiveness disappeared. The offense became a power running attack, and the passing game was neutered in a way that’s caused Kirk Cousins to fall precipitously in drafts.

2018 Minnesota Vikings Offense, With and Without Stefanski as Play-caller

The Vikings attempted 13 fewer passes per game under Stefanski, and Cousins’ passing yards dropped from 269 per game to 180. The rushing game jumped from 85 yards per game to 128 yards, and the rushing touchdown productivity doubled.

Assuming those three games equate to what the 2019 offense looks like is ridiculous. It’s misguided. Don’t do it. One, the situation was odd in that Stefanski took over specifically because ousted coordinator John DeFilippo refused to run the ball to head coach Mike Zimmer’s satisfaction. It was a matter of principle, but it’s also not a recipe for 16-game success. You don’t hamstring your three best players: Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, and Stefon Diggs. It’s illogical, and Mike Zimmer and his staff have largely proven to be rational coaches.

Even if you’re worried Stefanski will be too conservative, you need not worry because Gary Kubiak’s shadow looms large. There were rumors the Vikings wanted Kubiak to take over as coordinator, but instead, he’s joined the team in a senior advisory capacity. But there is no question if the Vikings struggle offensively, Kubiak has the opportunity and pedigree to right the ship. In fact, Gary Kubiak is one of the best play-callers in the NFL – based on his history.

Gary Kubiak Offense Rankings

• In 22 seasons, Kubiak’s offenses have averaged 12th in points and 9th in yards
• More than half (15 of 22) of his offenses have ranked in the top 10
• He’s finished outside the top half only six times
• Kubiak’s offenses have produced fantasy stars on the ground and the air
  • John Elway, Brian Griese, Jake Plummer, and Matt Schaub were all fantasy QB1s under Kubiak

What it means for fantasy: Prioritize Cousins, Thielen, and Diggs at their current discounts. Remember, Kirk Cousins has been a top-10 fantasy quarterback each of the last four years, in spite of playing for two different teams, two head coaches, four offensive coordinators, and with four different lead receivers. He’s also coming off his best season, in spite of the late-year swoon. Why on Earth would the Vikings move away from a quarterback in his prime, with two Pro Bowl receivers? They shouldn’t. And they won’t.

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The Colts offensive line could be the team’s Achilles heel

This is the most controversial of our five takes, and it’s also the one most likely to help fantasy owners avoid a disappointing season. The Colts are being branded one of the elite offenses this year, and fantasy analysts are fawning all over themselves, recommending just about every skill position player on the roster. Andrew Luck is a consensus top quarterback. Marlon Mack is an early-round RB2. Nyheim Hines is a juicy flex play and handcuff, particularly in PPR leagues. T.Y. Hilton is a No. 1 receiver. Devin Funchess is a late-round sleeper. Eric Ebron is a consensus top-5 fantasy tight end. And Jack Doyle is a sleeper, late-round tight end. The only way all of these things pan out is if the Colts offensive line retains last year’s elite status.

• 18 sacks allowed (versus 56 in 2017)
• 2.7% sack rate (versus 10% in 2017)
• No. 2 ranking for pass blocking by Football Outsiders
• No. 4 ranking for run blocking by Football Outsiders

Is there a chance the offensive line replicates last year? Yes, but the chances are slimmer than the fantasy industry wants us to believe. There are two reasons why the 2018 Colts line was among the league’s best, after being one of the worst units in 2017: 1) the infusion of two impact rookies – right tackle Braden Smith and left guard Quenton Nelson, and 2) stellar coaching by coaches Dave DeGuglielmo and Bobby Johnson.

The good news is Smith and Nelson remain in place, so the talent upgrade can’t be argued. But the bad news is Indianapolis lost both DeGuglielmo and Johnson to new jobs. It turns out head coach Frank Reich wanted DeGuglielmo out because he was hired by Josh McDaniels in the few days McDaniels was the Colts coach (before Reich took the job). That’s myopic thinking on Reich’s part given what an astonishingly good job DeGuglielmo did last year. It would’ve been understandable if Reich promoted Bobby Johnson from assistant line coach, but Johnson took the head job in Buffalo before the Colts had the chance to make the offer. The Colts replaced the dynamic duo with Chris Strausser, an assistant line coach with the Broncos. Strausser may be talented, but that’s to be determined. And he’s coming from a team where the line play was widely admonished.

Talent is more important than coaching, but offensive line coaches are among the most impactful position coaches in the league.

What it means for fantasy: Maybe nothing, but don’t be surprised if all the Colts skill players regress a bit this year. Andrew Luck is too gifted to project outside the top-10, but drafting him as a consensus top-3 fantasy quarterback means having faith the loss of two stellar coaches won’t matter. The same goes for those counting on Marlon Mack staying healthy and being a high-end No. 2 fantasy running back. Perhaps Strausser is good enough to maintain what DeGuglielmo and Johnson built. But make sure you don’t go all in and assume what happened in 2018 is the most likely outcome in 2019.

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Steve Spagnuolo is not the tonic for a broken Chiefs defense

The Chiefs can’t be blamed for firing Bob Sutton. The long-time coordinator had fallen on hard times, and the team’s defense had gotten progressively worse for several years, culminating in a unit that ranked 31st in passing yards allowed and 27th in rushing yards allowed in 2018. But, Andy Reid’s curious decision to tab Steve Spagnuolo as Sutton’s replacement is a real head-scratcher. Spagnuolo is one of those coaches whose reputation among league insiders far outweighs his on-field results. He’s not as overhyped as Rob Ryan, but he’s not far off.

Steve Spagnuolo's Defensive Rankings

• Spagnuolo’s defenses have ranked 20th and 21st in yards and points allowed, respectively
• His defenses have finished below league average six of nine seasons
• He’s only had two top-10 seasons
• Neither his pass or rush defenses are better than league average

Let’s compare Spagnuolo’s defenses against Sutton’s:

• Both have nine years of experience
• Average yards allowed: Spagnuolo 21st, Sutton 19th
• Average points allowed: Spagnuolo 20th, Sutton 11th
• Average takeaways created: Spagnuolo 19th, Sutton 13th
• Average rushing yards allowed: Spagnuolo 20th, Sutton 22nd
• Average rushing touchdowns allowed: Spagnuolo 18th, Sutton 13th
• Average passing yards allowed: Spagnuolo 21st, Sutton 18th
• Average passing touchdowns allowed: Spagnuolo 16th, Sutton 14th
• Average interceptions created: Spagnuolo 16th, Sutton 12th

What it means for fantasy: Keep the throttle on the Chiefs passing game. Anyone worried the Chiefs would improve their defense enough to run a more balanced offense, and in turn, hurt Patrick Mahomes II from putting up MVP numbers, need not. Spagnuolo has been less effective in nearly every facet of calling a defense than Bob Sutton, and so you can expect another year of the Chiefs having to outscore their opponents in offensive shoot-outs, week after week.

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Dirk Koetter isn’t a sure bet to revitalize the Falcons run game

The Falcons finished 7-9 last year in spite of having one of the league’s best passing offenses. Matt Ryan played at an MVP-level (again), and the team finished 4th in yards (4,653), 3rd in touchdowns (36), and 2nd in fewest interceptions (7). Unfortunately, offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian struggled to get the ground game going with Devonta Freeman hurt. The Falcons ranked 27th in rushing yards (1,573) and 23rd in touchdowns (11).

The front office relieved Sarkisian of his duties and opted to bring back Dirk Koetter, who was the Falcons’ coordinator from 2012-2014. Koetter is expected to re-establish the ground game and give the Falcons the balance they had in their 2016 Super Bowl year (top-5 in both rushing and passing).

But just because Koetter has a reputation for being an old-school play-caller does not mean he’s the cure for what ails the Falcons. The 2016 season came thanks to Kyle Shanahan calling plays, and Shanahan is now coaching the 49ers. A close look at Koetter’s coaching history paints a gloomy picture for those expecting great things from Devonta Freeman, Ito Smith, and company.

KOETTER'S OFFENSIVE RANKS (OUT OF 32 TEAMS), AS AN NFL PLAY CALLER

Koetter was all about the run game in his first stint as a play-caller. He relied on Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. But something happened once he landed in Atlanta. There was a honeymoon in 2012 as the Falcons finished 7th in points scored, but it was downhill from there.

• Ranked 22nd or worse in rushing attempts in six of eight seasons
• Ranked 21st in rushing attempts, on average
• Ranked 24th or worse in rushing yards in seven of eight seasons
• Ranked 24th in rushing yards, on average
• Ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing touchdowns four times
• Ranked 20th in rushing touchdowns, on average
• Ranked 21st or worse in yards per carry in seven of eight seasons
• Ranked 23rd in yards per carry, on average
• Ranked in the bottom half of the league in fumbles lost, four times
• Ranked 17th in fumbles lost, on average

What it means for fantasy: Don’t overpay for Devonta Freeman. Freeman is incredibly talented, and the Falcons’ lack of an effective run game has coincided with his injuries over 2017-2018. Freeman is fully healthy, and his presence alone should help the Falcons rise out of the rushing basement. But, if you’re betting on Atlanta’s ground game becoming the centerpiece of the offense, history says otherwise.

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Twitter: @FBGWood