You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
1. Sigmund Bloom's Sleepers
Did you take some risks during your draft that haven't paid off? Did the dumb luck of injuries wreck your team? It's time to consider some sleepers—cheap fantasy free agents with starter potential.
Fortunately for you, Sigmund Bloom has long been one of the best at identifying sleepers so you've subscribed to the right site. Let's examine a handful of Bloom's notable picks for Week 3. I purposely added James O'Shaughnessy to this list despite this article being written after the game so you could see the prescience of Mr. Bloom in action:
Frank Gore, BUF (vs Cincinnati) - Devin Singletary hasn’t practiced through two sessions and the Bills would be smart to keep the rookie on the bench this week to avoid any re-injury that would sideline him for multiple weeks. Gore is serviceable and should lead the team in carries and get any goal line looks against a defense that let three running backs put up fantasy-relevant numbers last week.
Raheem Mostert, SF (vs Pittsburgh) - The Steelers defense has been stingy against the run, so Mostert may be the best 49ers running back play because of his ability to contribute as a receiver and the everpresent possibility of Matt Breida getting dinged during the game and creating more opportunity for Mostert. He was explosive on his touches last week and led the team in carries.
Jordan Wilkins, IND (vs Atlanta) - If Marlon Mack can't go Sunday, Wilkins would lead the Colts in carries against a Falcons defense that the Vikings ran all over in Week 1. Wilkins was in top form last week with a long run that led to the game-winning score.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (vs Denver) - Valdes-Scantling is still getting the downfield shots and only some good plays by the Vikings secondary kept him from having a bigger day. The Broncos are unlikely to put Chris Harris Jr/a> on Valdes-Scantling, so he’ll get a good matchup against a Denver defense that has had trouble putting pressure on the quarterback this year.
Devin Smith, Randall Cobb, DAL (vs Miami) - Smith is probably the Cowboys best deep threat, and he’ll get even more opportunity with Michael Gallup out this week against a defense that trust traded away one of their best players in coverage - a player that was often lined up in the slot, which is where Randall Cobb will be this week. Cobb has regained his form of old, which is usually the case early in the season before he ends up on the injury report. The only question here is whether these players can score before the game gets out of hand.
James O’Shaughnessy, JAX (vs Tennessee) **Thursday** - O’Shaughnessy has looked formidable on his targets, and Gardner Minshew will likely have to lean on him this week against a Titans pass rush that will force the ball out of his hands quickly.
Jason Witten, DAL (vs Miami) - Witten has already scored twice this year and Miami has given up over 200 yards and 16 receptions to opposing tight ends in two games.
Matt's Recommendations: If Mack can't go, you take Wilkins who I've been writing about all week as an excellent young running back whose only flaws are a lack of game-breaking speed (but he still fast enough to earn a 50-yard run against Tennessee last week). My greatest concern about Gore is T.J. Yeldon splitting time with the veteran. Still, I added Gore in a league where I could use some help at the position and I'm starting him this week.
Along with Wilkins, Mostert is the most likely option to be available on the waiver wire in deeper and competitive leagues but he's a solid gamble if desperate for a runner to fill your lineup. The 49ers committed bank robbery getting Mostert and Breida as cheaply as they did.
Valdes-Scantling, Cobb, and Smith have the matchup, the versatility of skill sets, and surrounding talents to deliver them juicy mismatches enough times a game that we should see at least two of the three deliver strong production this weekend.
This August, I essentially recommended drafting Travis Kelce at tight end or waiting until the 10th round or later to take two of Delaine Walker, Greg Olsen, T.J. Hockenson, Witten, and Darren Waller. Witten has "Old-Man Game," which is an extreme amount of technical and conceptual savvy that compensates for a loss of some athletic ability and still delivers strong weekly production. Old-Man Game is essentially what most players lack in the red zone that Witten has in surplus.
2. Pricing EValuator
Austin Lee and Maurile Tremblay created Footballguys.com's eVALUEator, a tool that "helps you choose the best [DFS sites] to start your favorite players." Here's how it works:
High numbers are green and indicate comparatively low salaries. Low numbers are blue and indicate comparatively high salaries. So for a given player, green sites offer more bang for your buck than blue sites. Click the positional text labels below to change the tables of data. Click the top of each column to sort or reverse sort the data.
We can't completely share our algorithm, but it accounts for all the key variables. As a starting point, we adjust for differences in scoring systems, roster sizes, total salary cap, and minimum prices at each position. After futher calculation, cross-site pricing aligns to create the clean comparisons in the tables below. We hope you find this information useful for adjusting player exposure across multiple sites.
For more information check out Phil Alexander's YouTube video about eVALUEator.
Matt's Recommendations: Based on eVALUEator's results, here are players I'm recommending this weekend.
QB Josh Allen on FanDuel: As Dan Hindery noted in this week's DFS Roundtable on Sneaky Shootouts, the Bengals defense has been generous so far and the passing offense has been good enough to keep the game tight enough for the Bills offense to continue throwing the ball. Although the interior pass rush of Geno Atkins could wreck Allen's composure, Allen has played well enough so far that I'd take a chance on him in lineups.
QB Matt Ryan on DraftKings: The Colts have a formidable pass rush with Justin Houston and Denico Autry but after the whuppin' the Vikings put on Atlanta's offensive line, the Falcons showed took a step in the right direction against the Eagles, despite not exiting this matchup unscathed. Ryan handles pressure skillfully enough and his surrounding talent can win deep or turn short gains into long ones. I would not underestimate Ryan.
QB Russell Wilson on FanDuel: Wilson at home against a Saints squad without Drew Brees shapes up to be a super-efficient payday for Wilson. His yardage may not veer into the 300-mark, but I can see him throwing for 2-3 scores and rushing for another.
RB Peyton Barber on Yahoo: The Giants are a generous rush defense, the Buccaneers are an attacking defense that will face Daniel Jones in his first start, and you know how I feel about Barber's skills. If the Giants die a swift death early, there's a risk that Ronald Jones earns extended time. However, Jones is a tough pocket player who should do enough in the first three quarters to keep the game from getting completely out of hand. This will benefit Barber's touches.
RB Nick Chubb on DraftKings: It was ridiculous how little the Browns used Chubb last weekend. After Baker Mayfield's tentative performance against the Jets, the Browns said it wants to use Chubb more in the offense, including passing downs. Look for this to happen against a Rams defense that gives up yardage to runners on the ground and through the air.
RB Raheem Mostert on Yahoo: See the entry from Sigmund's Sleepers article shown above.
WR Miles Boykin on DraftKings and FantasyDraft: He's done little so far, but he's starting and about to face a defense that will be paying more attention to Marquise Brown that's still weak on its back end. This will be the first game where the Ravens will likely have to play from behind throughout the contest. Boykin will get his chances at his price, it could be a big difference-maker for you this week.
WR Mike Evans on Yahoo: When I see a three-digit, positive number next to a player of Evans' ilk, take it. Godwin isn't quite there, but I'd take him, too.
WR Robert Woods on Yahoo: The Browns secondary is a little banged up and will probably be more concerned with Brandin Cooks. Look for Woods to have a solid day, and likely a big one if this game remains competitive.
TE Robert Tonyan Jr on FanDuel: He can win deep and he has rebounder skill in the red zone. He's a cheap shot at greatness for the Packers since Jimmy Graham will be out this weekend.
TE Jason Witten on FanDuel: I can't remember when the Dolphins have been good at covering tight ends, especially in the red zone.
3. Big Play PayDay
Daniel Simpkins is an excellent IDP player and his advice for big-play formats is a must-read. Here are a few recommendations I like from this week's article.
Dallas Cowboys Pass Rushers vs. Miami Dolphins Offensive Line
Against arguably the worst team in football, this defensive front is destined for a productive day. Demarcus Lawrence is a DE1 and Robert Quinn (who is returning from suspension this week) and Dorance Armstrong are worthy of consideration. Tyrone Crawford is a must-start in formats in which defensive tackles are a standalone position.
Buffalo Bills Pass Rushers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Offensive Line
This line cannot protect anyone and the Bills are rolling on defense currently. Jerry Hughes and Trent Murphy both are bordering on must-start status.
Los Angeles Rams Pass Rushers vs. Cleveland Browns Offensive Line
Aaron Donald has been quiet so far this season, but this could be the matchup in which he could get off the deck against a porous offensive line. You also have to like the prospect of starting Dante Fowler Jr/a>, who has been on fire as of late.
Here are two takes that surprise me, but I understand the logic and it's worth considering Daniel's advice:
Pittsburgh Steelers Pass Rushers vs. San Francisco 49ers Offensive Line
Surprisingly, the 49ers have allowed just half a sack in two games. The Steelers are also coming off the mental blow of losing their quarterback for the year. How will they respond on the road? There is some doubt that T.J. Watt, Stephon Tuitt, or Cameron Hayward will generate much with these factors at play.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs Offensive Line
The unit has been good against weaker competition, but the Chiefs line has surrendered only two sacks on the year. Fantasy general managers should think about benching Pernell McPhee and Matt Judon.
4. What to do with Antonio Brown?
Drew Davenport is an excellent addition to our staff. His legal background and extensive analysis of these situations has proven valuable with the Tyreek Hill case this summer and now, the Antonio Brown case this fall.
Davenport provides rich detail where necessary as well as bottom-line considerations. I'm sharing the bottom-line, but you will find it worthwhile to read how this situation changed during the past week.
In my opinion, the best play right now is to try and move on from Brown if you can get a top-50 player in return. It seems to me right now that there is a good chance that Brown doesn’t finish the season on the football field. Even more concerning is that it’s possible Brown doesn’t make it to the end of the month on the field. Be deliberate and judicious with your Brown shares, but be quick, things are closing in around Brown and his chances to finish out the year are dwindling.
Matt's Recommendation: Buy-low on Josh Gordon if you can. Consider Ben Watson if you're desperate for a tight end or can leverage a sell-high on one of your lower-round tight ends who hit big and you need depth.
5. Rent-A-Kicker
Really? This is the best we've got? If you get past your kicker bias, the answer is yes—despite the unfortunate fact especially with Adam Harstad running the show on this feature.
In all seriousness, Harstad is an excellent fantasy player, he has a voracious and curious mind that he puts to great use in our space, and he's a must-read at Footballguys. The only thing really wrong with him is his love for the Denver Broncos—an unfortunate affliction my father and siblings also acquired.
Enough of my faux-bashing Harstad, here's how he frames his weekly feature:
No position is more unpredictable in fantasy football than kickers. Year after year after year, no position has a lower correlation between where they're drafted before the season and where they finish after the season. No position has a lower correlation between how they score in one week and how they score in the next. No position has a lower correlation between projected points and actual points.
In addition, placekicker is the position that has the smallest spread between the best players and the middle-of-the-pack players for fantasy. Finally, most fantasy GMs will only carry one kicker at a time, which means there are a dozen or more starting kickers sitting around on waivers at any given time. Given all of this, it rarely makes sense to devote resources to the position. Instead, GMs are best served by rotating through whichever available kicker has the best weekly matchup.
Every week, I'll rank the situations each kicker finds himself in (ignoring the talent of the kicker himself) to help you find perfectly startable production off the waiver wire.
Here are his Great Plays and Poor Plays for Week 3:
Great Plays
**Brett Maher, Dal
Stephen Gostkowski, NE
Harrison Butker, KC
Jake Elliott, Phi
**Matt Gay, TB
**Dan Bailey, Min
Poor Plays
Wil Lutz, NO
Cairo Santos, Ten
There is also an Avoid At All Costs tier in addition to Good and Neutral plays. If you're streaming kickers or have a bye-week issue, Harstad's feature will be helpful.
Thanks again for reading and I hope these insights help you get the most from Footballguys this week and throughout the season.
