So the questions that started Part 1 have been answered, but what players can you use in 2019 to enact this strategy? Keep in mind that auction targets can be serpentine targets too, but more often than not an auction target differs in one important facet: You can get that player in an auction for cheap when otherwise you wouldn’t be taking that player in a snake draft because that necessarily shuts you out from other talents at that spot in the draft. As a quick example, you may not want Tevin Coleman in a serpentine draft because you must take him in the middle of the 5th round. Players like D.J. Moore, Tyler Boyd, Allen Robinson, and Robbie Anderson are all being drafted in the same area and have fewer question marks and less bust potential. But if you could have both Coleman AND one of those receivers? That’s your sweet spot. In fact, this article argues that you can aim even higher.
For this final section, auction values are going to be expressed as an exact dollar value, but the caveat is that you must think of the values as a range and let the deals come to you. Here are some excellent targets to be looking at when executing the wide receiver heavy strategy. Ideally, you will come out of the draft with three of the top 15, or four of the top 24 wide receivers to be able to use the advantage properly. Then it’s time to have some fun and nab a top tight end.
Numbers based on 12 teams, PPR scoring, 1 Quarterback, $200 cap:
- Mike Evans, $35 – Despite being a target hog he doesn’t get credit as having the upside of those around him. Take the discount. Evans can be your WR1.
- Keenan Allen, $33 – He’s still being criticized for his lack of touchdown ability, but he’s still one of the best in the game and is a PPR monster.
- Julian Edelman, $29 – Edelman should be peppered with targets in New England this year. He can push for top 10 numbers easily if he stays healthy. This type of receiver is where you make your home in a wide receiver heavy strategy.
- Robert Woods, $19 – Rock steady production on a great offense. He’s still not getting respect as a top option.
- Tyler Boyd, $17 – You can argue Boyd all you want as a WR2 for your squad, but if he’s your WR3? That’s exactly what you’re after.
- Mike Williams, Calvin Ridley, $14 – You don’t want to rely on these two guys for steady WR2 production. But if you get a good price as a WR4 it’s a no-brainer. Even as a WR3 these guys are weekly winners if they pop as your WR3 or flex.
This is not an exhaustive list of targets, and you can add/delete players from the list based on your own opinions. Also, note that you likely won’t be owning DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, or Odell Beckham because they will be too expensive for this method. But using these players I listed above you can put together some excellent possible scenarios. Then you can add up the prices and see what you can do with 3 or 4 of them.
- Evans, Edelman, Woods, Ridley = $97
- Allen, Edelman, Boyd, Williams = $93
- Evans, Allen, Edelman = $97 (Imagine starting these three in a 12 teamer!)
Notice what you have done with these combinations. You’ve given yourself weekly rock-solid production with PPR machines in Allen/Edelman/Boyd types, with upside in Evans and Williams or Ridley. You’ve done all of this while spending less than half your cap. Now move on to running back.
- Kerryon Johnson, $35 – With Theo Riddick gone this price may not be possible, but if he’s under 40 dollars he’ll have a good chance to pay that off with receiving upside.
- Devonta Freeman, $31 – With Tevin Coleman gone and nothing exciting at running back behind him, he’ll get a chance to return to low-end RB1 status. He’s not exciting, and he’s old news, the two perfect factors to keep an auction price low.
- Josh Jacobs, $30 – It’s hard to count on a rookie as your RB1, but Jacobs is going to touch the ball a lot. You are paying for opportunity. If you can get him in the $20’s he’s an easy buy at that price.
- Tevin Coleman, $22 – It’s a risk drafting a running back who is competing with two other backs who will touch the ball. But Coleman appears to be the lead dog and a low $20’s price tag is reasonable for the gamble.
- Chris Carson, Marlon Mack, Derrick Henry, $21 – These guys can be lumped together in the same ballpark. They won’t catch many passes, but they’ll see plenty of touches and have weekly touchdown upside. Getting one of them in the upper teens would be ideal.
- James White, $17 – Edelman and White should be very busy for New England because of the lack of other proven pass-catchers.
- Lamar Miller, $11 – He isn’t flashy, and nobody is excited about him but he’ll have plenty of touches in a good offense.
In this scenario, you can get one of the top running backs listed and then try to pair one of them with Carson, Mack, Henry, or Miller. However, focus on getting the best RB1 that fits your budget because your RB2 in this scenario is far less important than finishing your roster with a difference-maker at tight end or quarterback. Get a cheap RB2 from your list if possible, but generally, you want to completely blow off that spot unless value smacks you in the face. Your difference-makers for this scenario will be at the wide receiver and tight end position. Next, assume that you will pay very little for a quarterback because you want to land a top-three tight end and there are players in your auction who will pay top dollar for a quarterback leaving you free to take advantage elsewhere. Here are some good cheap auction targets at quarterback.
- Mitch Trubisky – He might be hard to watch on a weekly basis, but he was putting up big numbers before getting hurt. He’s getting no love in drafts to date.
- Kirk Cousins – The fantasy community is overreacting to his current situation. He’s fallen to the bottom of QB2 range in ADP.
- Lamar Jackson – John Harbaugh says Jackson is going to continue to run the ball. As a low-end QB2 in ADP right now you can get him cheaper than he should be.
- Jimmy Garoppolo – Recency bias and a small career sample size have Garoppolo buried at QB22 in ADP. He has weapons and a great offensive coach.
- Derek Carr – The Raiders added three big offensive weapons this offseason. His touchdown rate was absurdly low last year and should rebound. He could sniff 30 touchdowns this year.
The goal when grabbing one of these quarterbacks is to do so with the idea in mind that you can easily hedge your selection by grabbing two of them. You can do this for less than $5 in almost any draft. If not? Don’t sweat it. Take one of them and keep an eye on the waiver wire. Use your few dollars to snag a running back or wide receiver instead.
And finally, at tight end, there isn’t much to say. If you go for a top 3 tight end, you’ll have to pay somewhere in the neighborhood of $30-$35 for one of them. Travis Kelce may go for close to $40, and Zach Ertz and George Kittle are likely going to crack $30. That can be factored in for this strategy. Now go back and construct a full roster with this strategy and see how it looks.
- QB - $5
- RB - $35 (K. Johnson)
- WR - $97 (Evans/Edelman/Woods/Ridley)
- TE - $32 (Ertz or Kittle)
At this point, you have spent $169 of a $200 cap. The impressive thing, though, is that you have lots of wiggle room. If you wanted to sub out Kerryon Johnson for someone cheaper you instantly save money that you can put somewhere else. Then, if you’re following the auction strategies in the series, Mastering the Art of the Auction Draft, you can look for values where they present themselves and come up with more money that way. Obviously, $31 is not a lot to fill out the rest of your roster, but that amount should go up if you are finding values along the way. For example, you had planned on getting Edelman as your WR3 but his price shot up to $38 and you bowed out. But then surprisingly Stefon Diggs falls in your lap at $24. Since you thought you’d spend $29 on Edelman and didn’t get him, you wisely kept your cool, passed, and then jumped on the Diggs deal instead. This nets you a very valuable $5 you can throw somewhere you need it most. And the worst-case scenario is that you spend that money and have about $30 to fill your kicker, defense, and a few backups. The meat of your roster is already filled out, and in a 12-team league, your starting roster will have plenty of good to great talent with almost no holes! Envision leaving the draft with this team:
- QB – Kirk Cousins
- RB – Chris Carson/James White
- WR – Mike Evans/Julian Edelman/Robert Woods
- FLX – Calvin Ridley
- TE – George Kittle
Any time you attempt to predict auction values like you predict serpentine draft spots you will invariably get some things wrong. Often, because of factors beyond your control, you will be wildly wrong. But the fun of an auction is that the above roster is simply not possible in a serpentine format. Yet it’s possible in an auction even though it’s not easy! Isolating players that you feel strongly about in your rankings, and then going against the running back grain and snapping up players at other positions is a great way to stockpile lots of top talent. This is certainly not the only way to attack an auction in 2019, but it looks like one of the best.
