Alternative Handcuff Strategy, Tight Ends

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By now, most fantasy football players are familiar with the term “handcuff” when it comes to drafting running backs. Quite simply, it is the strategy of taking the direct backup to a stud running back or at least one of your intended starters for your weekly fantasy team lineup.

That is not what this article is about.

As fantasy football evolves, the opportunities to create separation from the other teams in your league gets harder and harder to achieve. More information is available than ever, and it seems that the days of a few of your league members showing up on draft day with an old magazine and nothing else to guide them are a distant memory. Everyone seems to have not only multiple strategies to get the best team possible but at least one (sometimes more) sources of information such as ADP, depth charts and potential sleepers. So how can you get an edge?

Enter alternative (and – dare I say – higher level) strategies on how to build the best teams with the highest potential for success. Allow me to introduce you to alternative handcuffs.

What is an alternative handcuff? First, it has nothing to do with the running back position at all. It is employing similar handcuff thinking to either the wide receiver or the tight end position to not only get quality depth on your roster but also have a higher potential to secure a player who could become not just a spot starter but also a valuable commodity. Securing a “surprise” fantasy starter either strengthens your team with either a better lineup each week or the potential to trade a player for something else your team needs.

Let’s start by looking at the tight end position. The best place to begin is right at the top of the ADP list, with the Top 9 tight ends that are most likely to be the first nine at the position selected in nearly every fantasy draft this season:

Direct Handcuffs at Tight End

Looking closely at this list, we want to identify the handcuffs to these nine options, if possible. Some of these tight ends may not have direct backups, so they can be scratched off the list. The goal is to find players that not only represent valuable backups but also players that are worth owning (and can be spot starters) even with the primary (Top 9) tight end healthy all year long. This narrows the list to the following options:

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (direct backup for Zach Ertz)

Goedert was a valuable rookie for the Eagles last year, finishing at TE20 with 33 receptions and 334 yards. Those are solid numbers for any second tight end, but Goedert’s rookie campaign must be viewed as very strong considering how difficult the transition it usually is for tight ends moving from college to the NFL in their first year. The Eagles were one of the top teams to use “12 personnel” (one running back, two tight ends) as their base offensive formation, as Philadelphia had two tight ends on the field 36% of the time in 2018. Only Houston (37%) lined up this way more, with the Titans (30%), Chiefs (26%) and Ravens (25%) the only other team using two tight ends at least one-fourth of the time. Goedert caught four touchdowns in the 2018 regular season – good enough to tie for 9^th at the position – and added another in the postseason. Even if Zach Ertz stays healthy all year long, Goedert is well worth a TE2 spot on fantasy rosters and offers immense upside if Ertz was to miss any action.

Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts (currently viewed as the backup to Eric Ebron)

The description above speaks to the consensus outlook that Eric Ebron is the primary tight end for Indianapolis, while Jack Doyle is in second place. Let’s challenge that notion first. Doyle and Ebron played together in six games last season, and Doyle had more targets in three of those six games (Ebron had two, while one game was a tie). The two games where Ebron was targeted more just happened to be the two contests where Doyle was injured during the game. Doyle had 108 targets in 2017, adding weight to Doyle’s value and Andrew Luck’s affinity towards using tight ends. There is room in the Indianapolis offense for two tight ends on offense, and Doyle’s late ADP makes him a steal even if he only is the TE2 in Indianapolis. Recent history and Luck’s history with tight ends that goes all the way back to Stanford increases Doyle’s value – and it would not be surprising at all if Doyle outperforms Ebron this season.

Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (backup to O.J. Howard)

Speaking of quarterbacks that love tight ends, Jameis Winston came out of college with the reputation of loving to throw to big targets, especially in the red zone. Both Howard and Brate have been strong TE1 options when they were the only option for Winston, and over the past two seasons both tight ends have combined for roughly 100 targets (116 in 2017, 97 last year with Winston missing several starts). Two years ago, Brate finished the season at TE8 with Howard ending up his first year as TE16. Even if the roles are merely reversed, Brate represents a great value with a clear path to TE1 usage if Howard misses any action.

Applying Alternative Handcuff Strategy for Tight Ends

There are a few ways to take advantage of alternative handcuffs at the tight end position this year. Here are three approaches, along with a preferred path to success:

Strategy #1:

1. Handcuff Ertz with Dallas Goedert (PPR ADP 178 / no-PPR ADP 193)
2. Handcuff Ebron with Jack Doyle (164 / 170)
3. Handcuff Howard with Cameron Brate (276 / 286)

Drafting Ertz, Ebron or Howard means that you are investing in a Top 7 tight end. That’s great if you can get them at a value, but also understand that there is a huge opportunity cost if your TE1 gets injured and that you do not own his direct backup. All three of these “understudies” will see utilization this year, and they will instantly join the Top 10 tight ends on the weekly projection list if they become the clear starter. That means the correct play here is to handcuff your TE1 with the TE2 on the Eagles, Colts or Buccaneers – and doing so one to three rounds ahead of that player’s ADP. The reasoning is simple – there is no bigger downside risk to your team than losing your stud tight end and not having his backup to plug in your lineup in case of a major injury. There are plenty of other sleepers to draft in the second half of your draft, so if you land Ertz, Ebron or Howard, go ahead and put the backup on your “must-draft list” based on this short list:

• Goedert – Round 13 or 14
• Doyle – Round 11-13
• Brate – 3-4 picks from the end of your draft (Round 15+)

A downside here is that putting two tight ends on your roster with the same bye week means that you will need to cover that hole either from the waiver wire as that week approaches, or that you must draft at least three tight ends. Neither is ideal, but if you must choose from all three, look at Ertz and Goedert more as the Eagles have a later bye (Week 10 as opposed to the Colts (Week 6) and Buccaneers (Week 7)). While there are some leagues with deeper rosters (20+ spots) and/or premium scoring for tight ends (1.5 PPR, usage in flex, etc.) – but both will also mean that the tight end position will also be drafted sooner, increasing the cost of these three pairings.

Strategy #2 (Preferred) – Unless Ertz, Ebron or Howard fall into your lap, the better plan is to draft either a different stud (Top 7-8) tight end and then draft Goedert, Doyle and/or Brate based on the list above. As discussed in Strategy #1, those three tight ends SHOULD go earlier than their ADPs to those owners, so pay attention to who drafts Ertz, Ebron, and Howard. Snagging these three high upside backups that could become TE1s on their own are great values, and well worth a pick in a double-digit round of any draft.

Best of luck this season!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

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