What does it mean for a player to “make your draft”? To me, delivering every week starter reliability for half of the season or more at a cost of a fourth-round pick or less fits the bill. Your first three picks are supposed to be cornerstones. If you hit on those picks and then get a fourth cornerstone later, even in the fourth, you will be well ahead of the competition. Who are players who can make your draft?
John Brown, WR, Buffalo - Robert Foster had sustained fantasy relevance with Josh Allen last year. Brown offers a lot more than Foster to say the least. He was on a 1000 yard pace with Joe Flacco and Foster was on a 1000 yard pace with Allen. So what does that say about Brown’s ceiling with Allen this year?
Damien Harris, RB, New England - It will require a Sony Michel breakdown, but we already know his knee is a problem. Rex Burkhead could be an issue too. Harris can be a three-down back in this offense and will require patience to harvest value, but the return of Josh Gordon moves this offense back into high rent fantasy real estate.
Josh Gordon, WR, New England - Gordon produced like a WR1 in the past and again last year when Rob Gronkowski was out. He was a little slower than his previous form but he also came into the season with a hamstring injury. He might not even play right away and who knows how long he’ll stay on the field, but he also riffed very well with Tom Brady and has been working with him in the offseason.
Robby Anderson, WR, New York Jets - Anderson finished the season with a stretch of games that would make him a WR1 in fantasy leagues, but he is still going at a WR2/WR3 price. He and Sam Darnold are both on the upslope side of their career arc, so special things could happen here.
Will Fuller, Keke Coutee, WR, Duke Johnson Jr, RB, Houston - Deshaun Watson just makes the players around him better when it comes to fantasy football. Will Fuller has been around WR1 level production when healthy and we don’t know what Coutee can do because he hasn’t been fully healthy for a regular-season game yet (and might not get there this year). Duke Johnson Jr is the name that might surprise here. He could be a core passing and running game piece and is probably the best running back on this team.
Justice Hill, RB, Baltimore - Hill is so much more explosive than any other back on the Ravens roster and he is showing tackle-breaking ability in the preseason. He may have to work his way up the depth chart, but breaking off chunk plays behind a line that opens up Mack Truck sized holes against defenses concerned with Lamar Jackson is a recipe for fantasy destruction.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore - Jackson belongs here too as a quarterback we know will be among the top runners at his position, but should also take a big step forward as a passer this year too. Tyrod Taylor and Colin Kaepernick were highly efficient passers under Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland - Mayfield has the benefit of offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who turned the Bucs pass offense into the best-producing passing game this side of Kansas City. He’s better than Jameis Winston or Ryan Fitzpatrick and has just as good weapons as the 2018 Bucs, so buckle up.
Darwin Thompson, RB, Kansas City - It will require a Damien Williams injury, but don’t be surprised if Thompson has stand-alone value without a Williams injury. And if Williams gets dinged, don’t be surprised if Thompson doesn’t give the starting job back. The Chiefs offense makes league winners.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Kansas City - The Chiefs offense makes league winners. We know Watkins is good, we know Patrick Mahomes II is good, we know Watkins should get good one-on-one matchups. He has been healthy this offseason and camp and is still well in his prime at 26 years old.
Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson, RB, Los Angeles Chargers - There is a widespread belief that Melvin Gordon will have to play half of the games to get his accrued season and not end up in a Groundhog Day situation, but what if the two sides agree to part ways next year no strings attached the way LeVeon Bell and the Steelers did? Ekeler could be a solid RB2 and Jackson a flex all year, and if Ekeler gets dinged like he did last year, Jackson could be even more - assuming this offensive line gets it together, beginning with Russell Okung coming back.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay - Godwin could easily eclipse 100 catches in this offense, and Bruce Arians has confirmed he’ll never leave the field. PPR WR1 numbers are within his reach.
O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay - Howard was a top 5-6 tight end last year on half of the target rate of Ertz/Kittle/Kelce. He should get a bump in targets this year and could crash the top-three party.
Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia - Wentz has one of the best lines in football. Alshon Jeffery is healthy going into this year. Wentz himself is healthy. DeSean Jackson has been added. Miles Sanders has been added. Dallas Goedert is ready to dominate in the middle of the field. JJ Arcega-Whiteside is ready to dominate in the red zone. All aboard!
Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia - Speaking of Goedert, he’ll likely need a Zach Ertz injury to make your draft, but he can still be a solid TE1 for your team in the meantime if he is getting 50-60% of snaps against severe mismatches and overstretched defenses. He’ll be a big-play tight end this year.
Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia - Sanders wowed everyone in attendance at Eagles camp. He is still unrefined as a runner, but his athletic ability and the Eagles line effectiveness could make that moot. This should be one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league and Sanders should see a lot of light boxes.
David Montgomery, RB, Chicago - I was skeptical about Montgomery because of his monotone burst, but he has won over the Bears staff and the fantasy world could be next. He can contribute as a receiver as well and could emerge as a feature back despite sharing the backfield with two very good players.
Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago - Remember when Robinson was a fantasy first-round level producer with Blake Bortles. Mark Wemken of the RotoBros runs down why Robinson should be part of your draft plan in an extraordinary Twitter thread here.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers routinely supported two every-week fantasy plays at wide receiver until recently. He was playing hurt and obviously hampered by coaching last year. Both of those factors are behind him, and Valdes-Scantling is ready to build on a very strong rookie year.
Curtis Samuel, WR, Carolina - I could have also listed D.J. Moore, but Samuel has a path to true impact through deep targets and big plays, where Moore will be effective with a higher floor because of shorter targets, but volume won’t be there to really make a splash. A Greg Olsen injury could change that, although Cam Newton not being 100% to start the year could be a drag for the whole offense.
Jared Cook, TE, New Orleans - The Saints are excited about what Cook can revive in their offense and he’s coming off of a career year. Drew Brees targets are very valuable and Cook should be able to be highly efficient in this attack. The bar is low for “make your draft” at tight end - if he can finish in the top five, he’ll help teams at least get to the playoffs unless the rest of the team is a mess.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona - I’m cooling on Murray and probably wouldn’t start him Week 1 against Detroit (or Week 2 against Baltimore unless Week 1 is a success). It’s more the defense not getting off of the field and shortening the game than the offense being able to stay on it with long drives. Murray still represents an unknown ceiling as the first fantasy quarterback who will be encouraged to be aggressive as a runner and a passer, and the schedule gets more conducive to fantasy success as we go on, along with the likelihood of Murray improving.
Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona - If the Arizona offense is consistently putting defenses in binds and getting easy short and mid-range receptions, one of these two players will likely be the recipients of the fantasy goodness. Watch out for Michael Crabtree here too, but the main point is that the Cardinals can exceed expectations across the board
Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, RB, Los Angeles Rams - Henderson’s summer has been a bummer but he still dusted Jaylon Smith on a wheel route and if he gets the Chris Thompson role, he gets a role that Thompson turned into near RB1 PPR numbers. Brown needs Gurley to break down to get to make your draft level (and that would obviously enhance Henderson’s ceiling and floor), and we shouldn’t rule out that possibility after what we saw last year.
Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas - This one is simple. If Ezekiel Elliott decides to test Jerry Jones well into the season, Pollard could be outstanding. Pollard could still have PPR flex value with Elliott in the mix and Kellen Moore bringing this offense into the 21st century.
Chris Carson, RB, Seattle - Carson finished the year as one of the hottest backs in the league, he’s going to get more love in the passing game, and he is still well ahead of Rashaad Penny.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle - Lockett was a solid WR2 last year on 71 targets. He could add 3-4 targets a game and make up for any drop in efficiency, and as long as DK Metcalf can get healthy and stay on the field, safeties will have their hands full in the deep passing game. The Seahawks defense is looking weak early, which could get Lockett off to a very hot start.
