A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Players Receiving 4 Votes
Corey Davis, Tennessee
Andy Hicks: Corey Davis was drafted where only elite receivers are selected, with the fifth overall pick of the 2017 draft. In an offense which has struggled to pass the ball, Davis has developed well and looked a clear future elite receiver. Last year he was almost a one-man show, with constant attention from elite defensive backs and any other receiver that was perceived as a threat, injured or gone. This year the Titans have taken Adam Humphries in free agency, A.J. Brown in the draft and Delanie Walker returns from injury, as well as upgrading the backup spot at quarterback. It is obvious that Corey Davis has fantasy elite written all over him. With his current draft slot, he is an absolute steal and has almost no downside. Rare for a pick in the first six rounds.
Dwain McFarland: Davis is an afterthought currently in the fantasy community. He is in an offense that is run-centric. He is in an offense that added Adam Humphries and A.J. Brown during the offseason, plus gets Delanie Walker back from injury. Fortunately, that is all baked into his current ADP, which leaves room for a solid return on investment from a still-ascending player.
Chad Parsons: Davis had a low-level breakout in 2018 despite being non-optimized in a struggling Tennessee passing game. 2019 is a make-or-break season for Marcus Mariota, where if he struggles, expect to see Ryan Tannehill under center before the year is out. Davis' historical comps entering Year 3 point to WR1 upside on the fantasy front and he can be had for ancillary receiver draft position in the typical fantasy league.
Daniel Simpkins: Davis had his best year to date, which is impressive when you consider that for the majority of the season he was without his quarterback and the other two best receiving options for the Titans. With Delanie Walker back and with Adam Humphries and A.J. Brown added to support Davis, the offense as a whole should function better, which bodes well for Davis’ chances to record his first 1,000-yard season. Even if Mariota gets hurt again, the team now has Ryan Tannehill, who is a similar quarterback and can be just as serviceable in sustaining the fantasy values of this team’s offensive options.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay
Ryan Hester: It’s rare to find a starting receiver on a team quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers this late in fantasy drafts. Even if Geronimo Allison stays ahead of Valdes-Scantling on the depth chart, Green Bay will employ enough three-receiver sets that the second-year man will still be on the field plenty. Anyone playing more than half of the offensive snaps and seeing targets from Rodgers should demand the attention of fantasy GMs.
Dwain McFarland: Thus far, Valdes-Scantling has the number two role locked down. With all of the 12 and 21 personnel Matt LaFleur deploys, he will likely find himself as the second most targeted player on the team behind DeVante Adams. Geronimo Allison will be more dependent on game scripts and situation when the Packers are in 11 personnel. Aaron Rodgers is always looking for the big play, and Valdes-Scantling can deliver in that department. I don't have a must-draft list but if I did Valdes-Scantling would be on it.
Jeff Pasquino: Any target of Aaron Rodgers has a strong chance to become a good fantasy value. Davante Adams is pushing for the top wide receiver status this year as a result, but what about Rodgers’ throws that are not targeting Adams this season? The starting wide receiver opposite of Adams should have a lot of fantasy value, as Green Bay’s receivers had 383 targets last year (Adams had 169). That is over 200 targets to go around, and Randall Cobb (61 targets in 2018) is now in Dallas. Valdes-Scantling (72), Equanimeous St. Brown (36) and Geronimo Allison (30) split most of the rest, with upstart Jake Kamerow (11) only seeing very limited action. While many are talking about Allison as the likely WR2, “MVS” was getting snaps at the starter WR2 spot in June minicamps. Taking Valdes-Scantling as your fantasy WR5 could mean getting a strong part of the Green Bay Packer passing game at a huge bargain.
Matt Waldman: Tall, strong, and extremely fast, Valdes-Scantling also displayed flashes of advanced route running last year. He’s a fast learner and his coaches and teammates have already noted his continued fast-track development this spring and summer—most notably Aaron Rodgers. Valdes-Scantling has locked down the No.2 role opposite Davante Adams and he should benefit greatly from single coverage opportunities for much of the season.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati
Drew Davenport: The only explanation for Boyd's current ADP is that fantasy owners believe last year was an aberration. He's being drafted well below his finish from last season, and his current slotting is a reflection of doubt in the fantasy community. A.J. Green's injury isn't great for Boyd's initial outlook because he performed better last year with Green on the field, but Andy Dalton is healthy, Tyler Eifert is for the moment, and the Bengals are set to unveil a new offense in 2019. Boyd is a great bet to far exceed his ADP this year.
Will Grant: A.J. Green is going to miss some games to start the season due to his ankle injury and subsequent surgery. It's expected to be just a 'few' but an ankle injury for a wide receiver is something to be seriously concerned about. Boyd is the guy who will benefit the most from Green's absence and the longer Green is out, the better Boyd is going to do. Look for Boyd to finish the season with WR2 numbers, especially in PPR leagues, making him great value at his current ADP.
Jason Wood: Tyler Boyd’s current ADP is the definition of value arbitrage. Boyd had a classic “third-year breakout” a season ago, with 76 receptions for 1,028 yards and seven touchdowns. He ranked WR17 in PPR leagues. The Bengals rewarded Boyd with a meaty four-year contract extension, and he’s poised to be one of the centerpieces of Zac Taylor’s new pass-happy offensive system. If Boyd merely sustains last year’s numbers, he more than justifies his price tag. But there’s reason to expect much more. Andy Dalton went down in Week 11 a year ago, and the Bengals passing numbers understandably regressed. When Dalton was healthy, Boyd was on pace for 90 catches, 1,210 yards, and eight touchdowns. With Dalton back, and A.J. Green already hurt, Boyd will be a target monster in a dynamic downfield attack.
Christian Kirk, Arizona
Phil Alexander: Kirk is a star in the making whose breakout potential is being missed by the mainstream due to how terrible the Cardinals offense was last year, a broken foot that cut his rookie season short, and the glut of wide receivers Arizona added in the NFL Draft. Before getting injured in Week 13 last year, Kirk was quietly leading the Cardinals in receiving yards ahead of future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald. He has experience playing with Kyler Murray at Texas A&M and was heavily recruited by Texas Tech when Kliff Kingsbury was the head coach there. Kirk is a natural fit in the Air Raid scheme and the most versatile receiver on the Cardinals' roster. Look for him to line up all over the formation and turn the resulting mismatches into plenty of explosive plays.
Ryan Hester: Today’s fantasy football industry is so sharp that it leads to many players being drafted at their ceiling because such compelling cases are made for their outlooks. But Kirk is the rare exception. He’s being drafted as a WR3 despite a legitimate chance to lead his team in receiving yards. If Arizona’s air raid doesn’t reach its full potential, Kirk still has a path to meet ADP. If it all clicks, however, the combination of volume and efficiency should put Kirk at or near WR1 production.
Daniel Simpkins: Of all the receivers in the Arizona offense not named Larry Fitzgerald, Kirk boasts the distinction of being the receiver that is “getting it” in camp. Kirk is a perfect fit for this spread-out attack. He was the most natural pass catcher and route runner in last year’s class, and those skills will come into play this year. If used as anticipated, Kirk will work both out of the slot and in space to stretch the field. He can be similar to Brandin Cooks if he and the offense hit their ceiling.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Julian Edelman, New England
Ryan Hester: Edelman is essentially the only proven non-running back pass catcher that Tom Brady has. And the “defensive focus” argument shouldn’t apply because a) it didn’t work in the Super Bowl when the opponent had two weeks to prepare; b) he plays in the slot, which is hard to double-team; and c) New England doesn’t get out-schemed. He should see at least 150 targets, and 190 could be a realistic number. 100 catches is well within his range of outcomes.
Dwain McFarland: With Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan, and Josh Gordon out of the picture, Edelman is likely in line for massive targets. N’Keal Harry is only a rookie and has struggled early in camp with press coverage – something Matt Waldman called out in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Edelman saw 24% of the targets on a per-game basis in 2018. Expect that number to approach 27% easily. Draft him with confidence at his current ADP.
Marvin Jones, Detroit
Drew Davenport: Jones was a hot name heading into 2018 drafts off of a strong 2017 season. But the injury bug bit again and Jones played just 9 games before going down for the rest of the year. Detroit's offense doesn't look like it will be very pass friendly with the addition of Darrell Bevell to run the offense, but it doesn't look likely that they'll have a stout defense either. The days of 650 pass attempts may be gone, but so is Golden Tate, and there is no reason to believe that Kenny Golladay is in for a crazy market share that would render Jones a bystander. It's understandable to be gun shy about Jones getting hurt again, but that's baked into his ADP. He's not going early enough that you're taking a big hit if he goes down again, but the upside is massive for a guy just one season removed from a WR11 (PPR) finish in the 2017 season. He's more than worth the gamble.
Matt Waldman: When healthy, he’s one of the best pass-catchers in the league on contested targets. He’s also equal parts deep threat, route technician, and YAC performer. However, he’s shorter and thinner and Kenny Golladay who is going off draft boards much earlier despite running fewer routes with NFL-level proficiency.
Dante Pettis, San Francisco
Jeff Haseley: The perception is that San Francisco does not have a true WR1 on the team, but my belief is that it will be Dante Pettis. He is a polished route runner and he led the entire league in yards of separation per target at 2.38 yards, which means he is getting open. This is also evidenced by his 81.8% true catch rate. The return of Jimmy Garoppolo will help Pettis rise to prominence. He is poised for a breakout in 2019.
Jeff Pasquino: The San Francisco passing game is one to watch this preseason, as there are a lot of talented players that will be looking to get on the same page and outproduce expectations. Jimmy Garoppolo returns as the starter after ACL surgery last October, just one of several injuries that decimated most of the production for the 49ers. Dante Pettis was one of the few highlights from last year, as he broke out in the second half of the season and was a Top 12 wide receiver from Week 12 to Week 16 last year prior to succumbing to a knee injury that sidelined him for the season finale. Pettis is going off the ADP board as WR34, which is barely a WR3 in fantasy leagues. That is putting his draft value in alignment with his likely floor of production, as just 80% of his peak production last year across 16 games would place him at borderline WR1/WR2 levels.
Allen Robinson, Chicago
Ryan Hester: Robinson started slowly last season. Reasons for that include being on a new team with a new coach, catching passes from a quarterback in his first full season as a starter, and being one year removed from a season-ending injury in 2017. This season should be different. First, he ended last season on an uptick, which includes a playoff performance of 10 receptions, 143 yards, and a touchdown. Second, Chicago’s defense was outstanding last season and could regress, especially with the departure of former coordinator Vic Fangio. That could lead to more volume for Robinson, who should be more efficient in year two with Chicago.
Jason Wood: Robinson’s 1,400-yard, 14-touchdown season in 2015 seems like a distant memory, as injuries and inconsistency have plagued him in the last three years. He’s finished no better than WR31 since his false-breakout season, but that’s where the opportunity lies. Robinson’s travails have been entirely injury-related, but he’s finally 100% healthy in training camp and is quickly reminding everyone why he was viewed as a future Pro Bowler coming out of Penn State. If you believe the Bears offense is due for another leg up in Matt Nagy’s second season, Robinson is a reasonably-priced way to invest in a potential top-5 offense.
Curtis Samuel, Carolina
Ryan Hester: His team believes in him, he can make plays, and he’ll be on the field frequently. While he’s projected to be the No. 2 wide receiver, the player ahead of him isn’t a proven alpha dog. Both Carolina receivers can make a fantasy day with a couple of touches. But Samuel is being selected roughly four full rounds later than D.J. Moore. He’s worth a pick a round or two ahead of ADP if you believe in the Carolina offense.
Dan Hindery: Very quietly, Samuel was the WR17 over the second half of the 2018 season. He did so as a 22-year old catching passes from a quarterback with a bum shoulder (and two games with Taylor Heinecke). In addition to the dynamic play late in 2018, Carolina beat writers pointed to Samuel as the offensive MVP during OTAs and has continued his stellar play in training camp. This Carolina offense is loaded with speed and playmaking ability and could explode in 2019. Samuel has the lowest ADP of all of the key cogs, making him a target worth reaching for a round early.
Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville
Will Grant: Nick Foles is coming along well for the Jaguars and with Marquise Lee gone for the season due to an ACL injury, Westbrook is going to be the top receiver for the Jaguars this year. He's going undrafted in many leagues, and while he won't put up monster numbers this season, Westbrook is definitely worth a roster spot as a flex or bye-week supplement.
Jeff Haseley: Dede Westbrook led the Jaguars with 101 targets last season and is expected to be the top receiving option for the newly acquired Nick Foles this year. In addition, 168 targets are vacated by Donte Moncrief and T.J. Yeldon who are no longer with the team. Many of those will be picked up by Westbrook. Let's not forget, Westbrook won the prestigious Biletnikoff award for Most Outstanding Collegiate Receiver at Oklahoma. If he meshes well with Nick Foles, Westbrook could have a breakout season in 2019.
Tyrell Williams, Oakland
Andy Hicks: Tyrell Williams lands in a great situation for him in Oakland. He stood out when Keenan Allen was injured as a Charger in 2016, finishing as the 13th ranked fantasy receiver. Now the crazy news about Antonio Brown leaves him standing as the most likely reliable target for the Raiders. His contract dictates that he will be used frequently and he should approach and maybe even exceed 100 targets. If that is the case, then he is underrated in fantasy drafts considerably and moving forward should be snatched up before his value skyrockets.
Devin Knotts: The Raiders went out and signed Tyrell Williams to a significant contract which indicates that they have plans to utilize Williams. Williams has primarily been utilized as a big-play receiver in Los Angeles, but should be in line for a bigger role in Oakland this year. Williams is a big receiver with speed and the Raiders lack wide receiver talent especially with the questions surrounding Antonio Brown. Even if Brown plays, Williams will solidly be a number two receiver and as the 52nd wide receiver off the board has a skill-set and opportunity to far exceed his draft position and if something happens to Antonio Brown where he is unable to go, Williams has top-25 potential.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Geronimo Allison, Green Bay
Drew Davenport: Allison is far from a sure thing this year. He struggles with injury concerns, and he must compete with challenger Marquez Valdez-Scantling for targets. But his ADP is so low that he's still in a good position to exceed the expectations where he's being drafted. He reportedly has the slot role in the Green Bay offense locked up, and prior to injury in 2018 he averaged 7.3 targets, 4.8 catches, and 72.3 yards per game. This had him as the PPR WR28 prior to going down for most of the rest of the year. He's being drafted well below this floor and should have no trouble exceeding ADP in a good offense.
Robby Anderson, NY Jets
Phil Alexander: Anderson broke out in 2017 with a 63-941-7 receiving line (WR15) before regressing last year (50-752-6) due to a severe mid-season ankle injury and Sam Darnold’s early-season rookie learning curve. But he came through with an overall WR1 finish in the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16) -- after he was healthy and Darnold recovered from a foot injury of his own. The Jets were playing out the string against some of the worst pass defenses in the NFL over that three-game stretch, but the chemistry Darnold developed with Anderson was undeniable. Assuming Darnold continues his upward trajectory, and the additions of Le’Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder improve the offense in aggregate, New York should have more pass attempts to spread around this season, as well as increased efficiency on those attempts. Anderson has sneaky low-end WR1 potential.
Parris Campbell, Indianapolis
Andy Hicks: The Indianapolis Colts have lacked a range of options in the passing game. That changes with the addition of Parris Campbell in the draft and Devin Funchess in free agency. Some see Funchess as the better option, after all, he has four seasons in the NFL. Campbell however is and will prove to be the better NFL receiver. He has rare speed and is a skilled route runner and doesn’t lack toughness. He should be NFL ready and with T.Y. Hilton, Eric Ebron and others to keep the heat off could explode out of the gates. Funchess projects as a glorified tight end.
Keke Coutee, Houston
Jason Wood: Coutee was hamstrung by his hamstring last year, but that presents a value arbitrage opportunity as everyone fixates on Will Fuller. Coutee didn’t get on the field under Week Four but delivered with 16 catches for 160 yards and a touchdown over his first two NFL games. He reinjured the hamstring and once again fell into relative obscurity. It was a disappointing first year for a team in playoff contention in spite of a paper-thin receiving corps. With one of the league’s best quarterbacks at the helm, a healthy Coutee can be a 10+ target safety valve who pairs up perfectly with DeAndre Hopkins’ downfield wizardry.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay
Drew Davenport: Evans is a dark horse candidate to come from the pack of second-tier receivers and finish as the overall WR1 in 2019. The Buccaneers don't have a true receiving back at running back, and they have little behind their top two wide receivers and tight end O.J. Howard. Combine that with Bruce Arians' love of the vertical passing game and the situation is ripe for Evans. Although he's had a volatile touchdown rate thus far in his career, he averaged 137 targets the past two seasons and had a whopping 172 in 2016. He's a perfect candidate to realize his ADP with volume alone, and if his touchdown rate spikes as it has in the past he will easily push for the top wide receiver spot.
Will Fuller, Houston
Jeff Pasquino: Will Fuller has had amazing runs of catching touchdowns week after week during his relatively short career in Houston. Fuller started 2017 with seven touchdowns over his first four games (Weeks 4-8), but then he failed to deliver any after that incredible run. Fuller then started last year in Week 2 with three more touchdowns in three straight contests, but then he tapered off before tearing his ACL in October. Fuller now comes back as the clear WR2 for the Texans with perennial Pro Bowler DeAndre Hopkins lining up on the other side of the field. Fuller should see favorable coverage and just needs to both stay healthy and also provide consistent production over a full season. If he can just do those two things, he will far outpace his ADP and land in the fantasy WR2 list, if not higher.
Michael Gallup, Dallas
Dan Hindery: We don’t want to go overboard with adjusting our values based upon training camp news but when a young player is generating consistently glowing reviews, we need to pay attention. Gallup is the type of young player we should adjust expectations on more aggressively. He has had a huge camp and looks like the clear second target in Dallas. As a rookie, he caught 33 passes for 507 yards and narrowly missed on some deep bombs that would have made his numbers even more impressive. If he takes a step forward in year two, which sounds likely, he could easily put up WR3 numbers. In the mid-rounds, he is worth targeting.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay
Jeff Haseley: The love for Chris Godwin is getting strong as September approaches. He should see a jump in every category this year, including snaps per game, targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Last season he finished WR26 in PPR leagues. We saw a similar rise in ascension with JuJu Smith-Schuster last year despite being the WR2 behind Antonio Brown. Godwin, in Bruce Arians' Tampa Bay offense could be super-productive.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle
Matt Waldman: Doug Baldwin’s departure means the slot role is now Lockett’s. Although he and Russell Wilson delivered a perfect quarterback rating on deep targets last year, Lockett’s frame and game lend itself well as a slot option. Look for a significant increase in targets and enough of a bump in yards for Lockett to be much closer to a fantasy WR1 than his current value.
D.K. Metcalf, Seattle
Jason Wood: The Seahawks were the most run-heavy team in the NFL a year ago, and it served them well. But it’s not like the team had much choice after Doug Baldwin was sidelined. Tyler Lockett was the only starting-caliber receiver on the roster, and he was miscast as the No. 1. That’s why Pete Carroll and the front office targeted Metcalf in the NFL draft. Metcalf is a physical marvel (6-foot-3, 228 pounds, 4.4-forty) that will immediately be able to take the top off of opposing defenses; and that plays perfectly with Russell Wilson’s deep ball accuracy and the team’s convincing play-action passing. Metcalf should be targeted 100+ times in his first season and will have one of the best average-depth-of-targets (ADoT) in the NFC.
Anthony Miller, Chicago
Matt Waldman: Miller played with an assortment of injuries last year and still showed a lot of promise. Expect him to double last year's yardage. If he can author a similar rate of touchdowns as last year, he could wind up a sneaky-good WR2. Considering that he can play multiple positions in the Bears’ lineup, he’ll be a candidate to lead Chicago in targets.
Donte Moncrief, Pittsburgh
Phil Alexander: Five years into his NFL career, we've passed the point where the allure of Moncrief's athletic talent outweighs his lack of on-field production. But he made the most of a bad situation last year, his first and only as a member of the Jaguars, who fielded the second-worst offense in the league in 2018. Moncrief commanded a solid 17.4% target market share in Jacksonville and led the team in air yards by a wide margin. During a stretch from Weeks 4-10, he was quietly a fringe top-25 option. Somehow still only 26-years old, Moncrief gets a massive quarterback upgrade and steps into an offense where 30% of last season’s targets have been vacated. If he can avoid the nagging injuries that derailed the early part of his career, we can very well be counting on Moncrief as a solid WR2 by the end of the season.
Sterling Shepard, NY Giants
Jeff Pasquino: The New York Giants are going to struggle once again this season, but the opportunity for success is still there for certain key members of their starting offense. With Odell Beckham Jr now in Cleveland, the WR1 role is wide open, with only two real contenders in Sterling Shepard and newly acquired Golden Tate. Shepard has been the most dominant wideout for the Giants during OTAs and minicamps, so the clear expectation is that he not only starts for New York but also becomes their top receiver. When in doubt, following the money is a good plan when it comes to a team’s outlooks on players. Shepard just signed a four-year, $41 million extension contract in April, so the clear outlook of Shepard’s ability to contribute going forwards is high. Shepard can easily put up fantasy WR3 numbers with some upside each week as the Giants will often be in “comeback mode” in most matchups this tear.
Courtland Sutton, Denver
Andy Hicks: Courtland Sutton had a rookie season that screamed future elite fantasy receiver. With Demaryius Thomas moved on and Emmanuel Sanders on his last legs, Sutton is the man most likely to be the key receiver for the Broncos. Sutton demonstrated the physical prowess required of the best receivers but lacked experience and knowledge. At the very least he moves into the starting fantasy receiver category with the hope of high-end production if he clicks with his quarterback and the offense can move the ball well. Denver has their elite receiver, they just need to use him.
