Photo: Imagn Images

The King’s Classic Auction Draft took place on August 17^th when fantasy football titan Bob Lung gathered 28 industry analysts together (14-team leagues) in Canton, Ohio at the Pro Football Hall of Fame to do battle. It was a shining example of what makes auctions tough and so incredibly fun – you never know what will happen, especially in a room of bright fantasy minds. There are things I predicted that happened like I thought they would. There were things that happened that I couldn’t predict at all. Then there were things that happened that I thought might happen, but they happened on a much larger, or smaller, scale than I was prepared for. All of that is the binary nature of any auction: it is predictable in its unpredictability. Therein lies the fun and frustration of trying to have a perfect auction.

In the more than two decades I’ve done them, I’ve never left an auction room and thought that I had nailed the draft exactly. At some point, I always make a mistake. Sometimes those mistakes happen because I just couldn’t bring myself to bid on that particular player despite the price I was seeing. Other times the mistakes happen because in hindsight my actions earlier in the draft were not optimal. It’s harder to classify the latter as a mistake, although the former certainly is. Either way, whether a mistake or victim of circumstance, it makes your team weaker for having happened.

Before we get into what happened, here is the league setup:

• $200 cap
• 16 roster spots (10 starters)
• Starters
  • 1 Quarterback
  • 2 Running Backs
  • 2 Wide Receivers
  • 1 Tight End
  • 2 Flex Starters
  • 1 Kicker
  • 1 Defense
• 14 Teams
• Full PPR, 4 point passing touchdowns

(Full rosters listed below)

It could be called amusing, or slightly nauseating, that I spent the last six weeks writing an exhaustive guide to doing auctions only to fail to follow my own advice just five short minutes into the draft. But I digress because there is plenty of time to read about my mistakes as we go along. For now, just remember that auctions are hard. I can give you every piece of advice in the book, but the judgment calls in the middle of a bidding war are hard and always will be. Don’t be too hard on yourself. With that out of the way, I’m going to be hard on myself so you can learn from my mistakes.

Let’s have a quick word on my plan heading into the draft so we have the proper context when dissecting those mistakes. I believed, as I laid out in my 2019 auctions strategy piece, that running backs would command big prices and therefore had planned to go wide receiver heavy. I also projected that in a room of industry types that I would be able to get a good quarterback for a very reasonable price. I wasn’t going to spend a lot on quarterback but was open to taking a top-five guy because of everyone else fading the position. Finally, I was planning to get one good running back, then grab two or three more at reasonable prices, and then go very cheap at tight end. I was hoping to leave the draft with 4 top-30 receivers so I could flex two of them.

By the time I finished the draft I felt pretty good about having executed my plan. Of course, it didn’t go flawlessly, but it went well enough that I could classify it as a success. Having said that, I don’t think it helps you as much to hear about all the good things I did. Instead, I’d rather focus on the errors because that is where you learn the most. You can check out my results at the bottom and see for yourself what you think. But for purposes of this article let’s focus on areas where I could’ve done better because that is how you learn from every auction you do.

The Beginning

So the auction began with the nomination of Dalvin Cook as the first player off the board. Despite the fact that when the day was over, running backs would be the most popular and expensive position, in this moment Cook got the treatment that early nominations seem to get. I talked about this as an important inflection point in the seventh part of my auction draft series, and it held true here. Even in a room of seasoned analysts, when owners are settling into a draft there are almost always deals to be had. That can last for one nomination, or it can last for a few players. For this draft, it was only one player, but Cook’s final price was just $34. That discount happened both because he was the first nomination, and it happened because the market had not yet been set for the top running backs.

What We Learned

Despite knowing that players can be had cheaper from the start, I failed to act. I was nervous. I wasn’t planning on owning Cook. I hadn’t planned to spend that on a running back immediately. All of that sowed enough doubt that I didn’t open my mouth. As soon as he was sold I knew I had made a mistake.

The right move was to price enforce up to $40 and then back off if he went higher. If I had been awarded Cook for less than $40, I should’ve taken the player and adjusted. We learned several lessons here. If this had happened 25 minutes into the draft, I would’ve jumped on it. But it happened immediately and that’s the point. I should’ve been ready and you can learn from this.

We also learned what inflexibility does. Even if I hadn’t doubted Cook, I still doubted paying that for a running back when my plan was to go light on running back. Sitting on my hands instead of bidding was the ultimate show of rigor when elasticity was needed. That point is simple in theory, but a constantly evolving process in action.

The draft continued in a somewhat predictable fashion from there. You would expect running backs to go quick and be expensive. In the first two rounds (28 nominations), 15 of them were running backs! In all, through four rounds of nominations exactly half – 24 – were running backs. Interestingly, besides some top wide receivers coming off the board, Josh Gordon was nominated as the fourth player up for bid. Sprinkled in among the running backs were also a surprising amount of defenses and kickers too. But as can be predicted in an auction, the early action was on the top players and heaviest in one spot. During this time I attempted to secure a tight end I wanted – Vance McDonald – and managed to do so for $6. That turned out to be a bit of a mistake by itself because this room devalued the tight end position outside of the top-three guys just like they did with quarterbacks.

What We Learned

Don’t expect a big drop-off from the top backs to the next few tiers of running backs like in previous years. That price drop failed to materialize significantly. The top three guys (Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Alvin Kamara) all went for $61 or $62. Once the top price got set, it acted almost like a hard cap and the prices ended up in the same spot.

The next tier of running backs still ended up hitting $50 – Nick Chubb – and it went down from there predictably. The lesson you can take into your draft room is that running backs are king. If you want to go that route you will have to pay this year. It’s also notable in this part of the draft that Ezekiel Elliott was nominated and ended up getting the holdout discount of $50. If you are ok with the risk then that’s a fine approach to take as you’ll likely get a significant $10+ price break on Zeke (until/if/when he signs).

Conversely, because of the running back prices, the other positions came cheaper. Quarterbacks and tight ends didn’t command anything remotely close to what I anticipated heading into the draft despite my opinion that those positions would be cheaper. I just didn’t anticipate how cheap. It was in this time that I secured both Kyler Murray for $6 and Vance McDonald. At the time I felt good about the prices, but had I waited, it would have been the smarter move. Paying $6 isn’t a bad price in a vacuum, but in this room, it wasn’t optimal auction strategy. From this information, you should deduce that while your draft rooms may not ignore quarterback and tight end like this one did, I think it’s safe to assume that this trend is going to be pretty accurate for most auctions in 2019. After the 3 top tight ends everyone has their own players they don’t mind ending up with and they’ll wait. Likewise, at quarterback, everyone is happy to take one of a possible 12-15 guys as their starter and they won’t plant their flag in most guys. Use this information to plan your strategy!

The final thing we learned from this point in the draft is that even veteran drafters will forget the value of having their kicker or defense nomination available to them when they want to punt on a late nomination. Oddly, although I kept both of my nominations for late, I spent too freely before the end of the draft and I blew the advantage it was going to give me later on. Don’t forget that you need to save money AND your kicker and defense nominations in order to dominate the end of your auction.

The Middle

The fascination with kickers didn’t let up after the beginning of the draft as all other 13 teams felt obligated to lock down a kicker before the top ones were gone. At one point in the middle of Round 5, seven kickers were taken in 10 picks. Some players even had no trouble spending $2 on a kicker. If you’ve read my series you know I find this to be a poor strategy. Don’t waste money on a kicker in your auction, and don’t waste an early nomination on a kicker that you can use later in the draft.

During this period of the draft, the random price spikes and drops started to occur. Chris Carson went for $37, a hefty price considering Joe Mixon and James Conner barely cracked $40. But the running back charge continued. By the end of Round 7 there were nine more running backs off the board (for a total of 33 in seven rounds!).

At this point, the backs did begin to dry up and more receivers started popping up in the nominations. The room clearly felt, as I did, that there were plenty of wide receivers to choose from and the prices devalued accordingly. I snagged Mike Evans and Keenan Allen for $36 each and then ended up with Tyler Lockett for $19. The Evans price was just fine with me, but I didn’t like the Allen price too much. I saw the writing on the wall for his level of talent, however, and decided to pay the market price instead of getting a deal in order to keep my strategy on track. You should be able to set your sights on a handful of guys that you want at this position and get them for much more palatable prices than the running back tiers of the same level. I was able to grab four guys I like for $107 which was right in line with my pre-draft thinking.

What We Learned

The boomerang effect was very much in play at this point. Hunter Henry went for $10 in what I believe to be a great price (one of the chief reasons I had McDonald-regret), but then several tight ends went very cheap right after Henry. The boomerang swung back and O.J. Howard went for $15 before Jared Cook went for $10. While the prices on those two guys aren’t awful, considering that Eric Ebron went for $2, the price swings were significant.

It is at this time that I believe I made perhaps my biggest mistakes. I kept expecting the running back spending to calm down and it never did. It was silly of me to think the spending would calm down when the room had clearly shown me to this point that they were going to pay for running backs. I ignored a chief data point and it cost me. My first buy of the day was Damien Williams for $25. I felt great about that price only because once I did it I wanted to buy a rock-solid guy as an RB2 like Chris Carson to make sure I hedged the Williams pick. Instead, I watched the running backs continue to fly off the board and I continually backed down when I should’ve paid up for a more volume heavy second running back. I could’ve had Derrick Henry ($23), Tevin Coleman ($21), or Marlon Mack ($27). I don’t think those prices are that great, but that’s pretty much the lesson I needed to learn that I failed to learn in time – there weren’t going to be great deals on running backs in this room. So I waited too long and ended up with Philip Lindsay for $17. The price I liked, the player I did not. Oh well, that’s an auction for you!

The Endgame

By the time the auction was getting into the late stages teams were trying to secure their pass catchers and the price points became somewhat static. Wide receivers flew off the board in decreasing prices at an amazingly steady pace. Curtis Samuel went for $16, Mike Williams for $15, and Christian Kirk for $15. People were not locked in on certain players so the money spread out evenly among the remaining guys. Of course, there were spikes – Robby Anderson went for $20 – but the prices continued to decline fairly predictably.

Unfortunately, the running back game wasn’t over yet. While a large part of the room had three to five guys already, I again made the mistake of assuming some of them were done. As you can see, a couple of mistakes in my theory as the draft went on compounded to lead me to a weaker running back corps. It was at this time that I (over)paid $19 for Latavius Murray and then secured Matt Breida for $6. While I don’t love either player, I do feel as though they are fine as my RB3/4 in a 14-team league. I got caught behind the game and paid too much for Murray, but I knew I had done it and it was either buy him or pass yet again and make the situation worse. I gritted my teeth and took my medicine.

What We Learned

The end of the draft was a master class in what patience can get you. I did a poor job of saving my money so I didn’t control much of what happened as the draft drew towards the endpoint. The deals on quarterbacks and tight ends came fast and furious as those who had them already (me and several others) didn’t have any interest or money for those spots, and those who needed them didn’t end up competing because they didn’t care who they got. Only 10 quarterbacks were drafted by the middle of the 10th round. But by the time Round 13 was done 11 more had gone and only 1 had eclipsed $4. The following guys went for $4 or less: Ben Roethlisberger, Jameis Winston, Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers, Jared Goff, Mitchell Trubisky, Drew Brees, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Jimmy Garoppolo. Russell Wilson went for $5.

The play this year clearly seems to be waiting for any deal on any tight end or quarterback that you deem worthy. There is absolutely no need to spend otherwise. Throwing your money at wide receiver and running back is the order of the day, and although your room may not be packed with analysts from the industry, it’s likely to go in a similar way.

Some final thoughts about the draft that seem important to note:

• Josh Gordon went early. Know your limit because you’ll be bidding on him quickly.
• One team was very good at the bidding strategy of bumping the bid by $3-$5 just when the bidding was getting to the point that it might work. I saw it work very effectively in the draft. Put this in your bidding arsenal.
• Even in a room of experts, they spent more than $1 on kickers and defenses too many times. Try not to do this.
• This league has 10 starters and just 6 bench spots. It’s my opinion that far too many teams ended up with backup quarterbacks and tight ends. I ended up backing up Vance McDonald with Kyle Rudolph because of McDonald’s injury history. As a general rule though, with this small of a bench you should be attempting to go with only backups at the running back and wide receiver spots. If you have injuries or want to pick up the hot waiver adds then you’ll be dropping that backup quarterback or tight end anyway.
• Even in a room of veteran auction drafters and strong fantasy minds, there was plenty of behavior that I told you to expect in any auction room. The guy with the Broncos jersey liked Broncos players. The guy with the bottle of water didn’t drink out of it until he was done bidding, then he took a sip, set it down, and checked out (that may or may not have been me). The guy who always tried to sound as bored as possible when he was bidding on a guy he wanted. The guy who tried to buy every player he nominated. The guy who nominated someone and then never bid again because he clearly didn’t want them. This all happened, and it happened with smart tough players. Imagine what you can see in your room if you’re paying attention.

I could write double the amount of words on this draft and what happened, but it’s impossible to list it all. I’ve included the rosters down below for your perusal at your leisure. The King’s Classic draft was typical in many ways, but not typical in others. It was fun and frustrating. I clearly made some mistakes and could’ve left the draft with a better team. But the tougher the room is the tougher it is to avoid having those things happen to you. If you take anything away from this draft just remember that I’ve been doing this a long, long time and I still made some fairly simple errors. It’s probably going to happen to you too. Stay FLEXIBLE and keep attacking. Every draft is a chance to improve. Good Luck in your 2019 auctions!

Final Rosters

(Prices in Parentheses)

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