A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very lain a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the Top 150 and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Mike Davis, Chicago
Will Grant: I called out Mike Davis earlier this year as a deep sleeper and training camp has only confirmed that I think his role in Chicago is much bigger than many people are expecting. Tarik Cohen is still the primary running back that you want from Chicago, especially in a PPR league. With everyone still high on David Montgomery, Mike Davis continues to go undrafted in many leagues. I think he's worth a late-round pick and is someone who could see a lot more playing time than expected right now.
Andy Hicks: When 50 running backs are being taken ahead of a guy that is likely to start for an NFL team on opening weekend, you know you have a value selection. There will be all kinds of talk about the third-round rookie David Montgomery, but third-round rookie running backs generally have flaws that quite often take a while to correct, sometimes a season or two. That makes the free-agent addition by Chicago of Mike Davis incredibly important. Davis was strong for Seattle last year when required and his dependable production will be vital for the start of the season. We’ve seen numerous times, like Ronald Jones last year in Tampa Bay, where a rookie just cannot get it together and the veteran plays all year. Davis could be one of those guys in 2019.
Jason Wood: The Bears backfield is a riddle right now, and hopefully, the preseason begins to untangle a three-headed monster of uncertainty. We can presume Tarik Cohen’s role as the change-of-pace back, and receiver on third downs is secure, which leaves a substantial role on 1st and 2nd down (and at the goal line) for either Mike Davis or rookie David Montgomery. If Davis gets the job, he's grossly under drafted. If Montgomery gets the job, Davis’ ADP makes sense. If it’s a timeshare, both are worth rostering, but you’ll have to be smart about how you slot them into your lineups. Davis proved in Seattle he can produce when given enough touches in a game script, and at his current price, he’s worth the lottery ticket until we get clarity in a month or two.
Chase Edmonds, Arizona
Phil Alexander: Backup running backs in high-octane offenses like Carlos Hyde start coming off the board in the early double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts. It makes no sense Edmonds isn't given the same consideration, even by those predicting a huge leap in offensive plays for the Cardinals. If Kliff Kingsbury gets his way, Arizona will run about 70 plays per game. Even with David Johnson getting workhorse touches, Edmonds will be called upon for six-to-eight touches per game. And if Johnson were to get hurt, Edmonds is an agility freak who would tilt leagues as the lead-runner in a paced-up offense.
Ryan Hester: Most of the time, the No. 2 running back behind a workhorse is over-drafted simply because there appears to be clarity on touch distribution if the starter is hurt. But Edmonds is the rare overlooked handcuff. Arizona will play with pace, and if they succeed, the offense will be fruitful. Even without an injury ahead of him, Arizona’s projected play volume could lead to standalone flex value for Edmonds. At a price tag of nearly free, he’s worth a selection if the Air Raid works out; or David Johnson misses time. And if both of those happen, the sky's the limit.
Daniel Simpkins: Edmonds is the cheapest of the injury handcuffs, and this offense will be tailored to what he does best, which is catching passes. It’s easy to imagine that if David Johnson got dinged up, Edmonds would be used to approximate Johnson in a check-down role while the rest of the receivers stretch the field. He would be a priority addition for fantasy general managers if this scenario plays out.
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota
Drew Davenport: It remains to be seen whether Mattison will secure the backup spot to Dalvin Cook in Minnesota. If that happens, however, he is a fantastic late round addition to any fantasy squad. The Vikings will spend a lot of time trying to run the ball in 2019, and Cook isn't the paradigm of health since he's been in the league. Mattison is the perfect kind of flyer for any team - he's easy to cut if he doesn't win the job, or if Cook sets the world on fire and the roster spot is needed.
Dwain McFarland: Mattison is a great player to target in the later rounds of drafts because he has multiple paths to value. First, he could be utilized to keep Dalvin Cook fresh as the change of pace back. In Gary Kubiak’s famous running scheme that could prove to be flex-worthy sooner rather than later. Latavius Murray’s season pace in games with Dalvin Cook last season was 110 attempts. Unlike Murray, he is a functional option in the passing game, which could widen his range of application. Second, If Cook goes down with injury again, he could be a league-winning type of back down the stretch as a functional player who is maximized by the scheme.
Jason Wood: I’m struggling to understand the dichotomy between Minnesota and Los Angeles. Everyone seems fine with Dalvin Cook as a top-10 pick in spite of an inability to stay on the field, in college or the pros. Aside from his ACL tear, he’s had three shoulder surgeries already. Yet, no one seems comfortable drafting Todd Gurley because of an arthritic knee condition, even though Gurley was an elite fantasy back in 2017 and 2018, and both he and the team insist he’ll be fine for training camp. Handcuffing only works if you’re sure you have the right backup and you get them at a value. In LA, people are drafting Henderson in the 6th round even though Malcolm Brown has as good a claim to Gurley’s job. Save yourself the headache and draft Mattison in the late rounds. He’s Cook’s clear handcuff and can handle an every-down workload.
Devin Singletary, Buffalo
Drew Davenport: If anyone says they know exactly what is coming in Buffalo for a touch split in the backfield then they are lying. But Singletary has a couple of things going for him. He's getting plenty of touches with the first-team offense to date, and he's playing behind Frank Gore and LeSean McCoy. Both of those guys are solid NFL running backs but are hardly locks to keep Singletary on the bench (or be on the team by the final cuts). If he performs well up to Week 1 it makes Buffalo's choices easier and could lead to a bigger role for him in an uninspiring backfield.
Andy Hicks: One of the more interesting rookies this year is Devin Singletary, who is projected to play little behind veteran backs in LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore, and T.J. Yeldon. Yeldon will be more a depth option, who has skills as a third-down back. McCoy has deteriorated noticeably in the last couple of seasons, as you would expect a 31-year-old back to do. What is interesting about McCoy though is that he can be cut with a seven million dollar saving on the salary cap. He is in the final year of a very expensive contract and if Singletary is ready, be prepared for a shock cut. Frank Gore is the wildcard as he has been on the wind-down for almost 10 years. Ultimately I would expect one or both of Gore and McCoy to not make the final roster, providing Singletary can look like an NFL player during the preseason. Severely underrated going into all draft formats.
Dan Hindery: Late-round running back selections are typically reserved for handcuff backs who need an injury to the starter to have any real fantasy value. Singletary is the rare running back with a late-round ADP and a realistic path to fantasy relevance without injuries. Singletary is flying under the radar due to the depth of the Bills backfield. However, LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore, are 31 and 36-years old, respectively. It isn’t hard to imagine McCoy and Gore showing their age and Singletary simply winning the job outright by the midway point of the season. Singletary should have the freshest legs and is the only back on the current roster likely to have any long-term future in Buffalo. If the Bills fall out of playoff contention, there is no reason not to give Singletary an extended audition late in the season.
Darwin Thompson, Kansas City
Justin Howe: Thompson didn’t produce much over one year at Utah State, but he landed in a great fantasy situation. There’s a ton of usage, efficiency, and touchdown opportunity in play in Kansas City, and his competition is relatively light. The team can't rely on Damien Williams as its lead dog - he's 27 without much of a track record, and Andy Reid has talked openly about his preference for a committee approach. Carlos Hyde looms as an option, but he looks like a poor fit here. Hyde isn’t much of a receiver, and he’s managed to flame out as a runner for three teams over the past calendar year or so. Thompson could rise quickly to the No. 2 role, which is a terrific floor for a late-round dice roll. And his ceiling is Williams’ late-2018 production, which would be deep-fried fantasy gold.
Jeff Pasquino: Sleeper running backs are the “late-round darlings” of all fantasy drafts, and for good reason. Once the Top 50+ running backs are gone, there is little reason to select a veteran backup option. The goal is to get a player with strong upside who can not only fill in for your team in case of a bye or injury, but also one that could emerge as a major contributor to an NFL offense. Grabbing a rookie running back with good hands out of the backfield that just so happens to be on a dynamic offense is a strong step in the right direction. Given Damien Williams’ limited experience and lackluster offseason (along with a nagging hamstring), Thompson has the skillset to take advantage of any opportunity he could get this year.
Matt Waldman: The Chiefs have labeled Thompson a playmaker based on his receiving skill and open-field work this spring, and it's why he deserves your attention. He's a short runner with quickness and speed who can pull through wraps and push larger defenders backward. He's a player to watch because based solely on their college tape Thompson is a more dynamic player than Damien Williams. If Thompson plays to his potential early, he could push Williams for playing time—and Andy Reid has a history of using committees if he lacks a dynamic feature back. So far, Thompson has performed well and earned a mention from Reid as part of the committee that will be the Chiefs backfield.
Player Receiving 2 Votes
Duke Johnson Jr, Houston
Jeff Haseley: The trade to Houston was an excellent move for both the team and Duke Johnson Jr. Lamar Miller is an above-average back with skills as both a rusher and receiver, but Johnson is arguably a better receiver, and his 7.2 yards per touched was highest among all running backs in 2018. I can see Johnson getting a lot of 3rd and long carries, as well as plenty of target opportunities. Miller will still be the team's primary rusher but the majority of his targets will be handled by Johnson.
Andy Hicks: The career of Duke Johnson Jr trended downward significantly last season in Cleveland and quite rightly he saw his future elsewhere. When Houston traded for him, his destination became known. He averaged over 60 receptions a season in his first three years, but that dropped significantly in 2018. His rushing attempts more than halved as well, as did his touchdowns. With only Lamar Miller ahead of him, the potential for significant touches is there. Let him settle in first, but expect him to improve as the season progresses.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati
Jeff Pasquino: Bernard seems to get overlooked every year, but there is much to like about his situation entering 2019. Bernard is the clear backup to Joe Mixon, and Mixon is viewed as a Top 10-20 running back (second-round pick) as the season approaches. Cincinnati is revamping their offense with new head coach Zac Taylor, and while Mixon may dominate snaps, Bernard should certainly see enough action as his direct backup to warrant a late fantasy draft pick. Bernard has been a capable understudy in the past with some upside should he need to fill in for Mixon. The depth chart is also very unproven behind Bernard with two late-round rookies and a UDFA from 2018 rounding out the list. Bernard is worth even more in PPR leagues with 35+ receptions the past three seasons, but his biggest upside is based on becoming the clear starter should anything happen to Mixon.
Alfred Blue, Jacksonville
Chad Parsons: One of the best backup jobs on the running back landscape is behind Leonard Fournette. Blue found a quality landing moving from Houston to Jacksonville and is a steady veteran, whom Ryquell Armstead will have a tough time leap-frogging for the RB2 role. Expect Blue to see spot starts (or more) in 2019 despite having minimal fantasy buzz as a ho-hum veteran without the allure of a young player or overt athlete.
Gus Edwards, Baltimore
Justin Howe: There are a lot of strikes against Edwards’ fantasy potential. He’s a low-investment guy in a crowded backfield, and he’s not involved at all in the passing game. Those are great reasons to bump him down a draft board, but not this far. Edwards broke out last year as the perfect grinder for the Ravens’ “run it 45 times a game” attack, consistently churning forward and creating yardage. Mark Ingram comes to town with a bevy of his own issues, and rookie Justice Hill is more receiver than runner. Edwards is an intriguing candidate to top 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns for fantasy players – and to do so from the final 3-4 rounds of a draft. Even without receiving numbers, that would be dynamite RB3 value so late.
Brian Hill, Atlanta
Matt Waldman: Ito Smith has been the popular recommendation as the top reserve for Atlanta’s backfield if Devonta Freeman gets hurt. However, Dan Quinn has told the media since this spring that the backups behind Freeman will be a rotation of players. One of those players is Hill, a third-year player from Wyoming with strength, agility, and burst who has improved significantly as a pass receiver. Quinn has cited Hill’s overall play twice during the first three weeks of camp and Hill’s performances have translated to the field in August. Hill has demonstrated that he has the best balance, vision, and power of the reserves and he showed it last year down the stretch with a 100-yard performance against the Panthers defense. If Devonta Freeman gets hurt, look for Hill and Smith to split touches but for Hill to have greater upside with touch-volume and role in the red zone.
Justin Jackson, L.A. Chargers
Matt Waldman: Jackson performed well enough in Austin Ekeler's stead that presuming Ekeler is "locked-in" to his role is premature. Jackson outgained Ekeler when splitting time with Ekler between Weeks 12-17. Jackson has the talent to push Ekeler in training camp and even if he doesn't out-play Ekeler for the No.2 job by September, teams are prone to keeping players who play well on the field. With Melvin Gordon holding out, Ekeler and Jackson are slated to be the 1-2 punch in San Diego and Jackson is already off to a good start as an August performer.
Jordan Scarlett and Elijah Holyfield, Carolina
Jeff Pasquino: A bit of a cheat here as I am putting both Scarlett and Holyfield together on the list, but the takeaway in this is that the backup running back spot(s) in Carolina are very much worth monitoring this preseason. Scarlett was drafted in the 5th round by the Panthers this year, and Holyfield was added as a UDFA. Christian McCaffrey was a Top 10 back last year for Carolina and the outlook for this season is similar. McCaffrey was first viewed as a question mark when he entered the league for durability, but in 2018 he was on the field for the Panthers for over 90% of their offensive snaps. It stands to reason that Carolina will look for better backups to McCaffrey, and if he were to miss significant time both rookies should add value.
Jamaal Williams, Green Bay
Jason Wood: Williams is out of favor thanks to Aaron Jones’ gaudy 5.5 yards per rush average and his touchdown output in the second half of 2018. While it’s possible Jones wins the job outright, new head coach Matt LaFleur has made no guarantees. LaFleur saw limited success calling plays in Tennessee last year, but the lone bright spot was Derrick Henry running wild once LaFleur committed to him. If there’s a back no the Packers roster capable of mimicking Henry, it’s Williams. Williams’ fantasy value is by no means guaranteed, but he’s coming at a price that discounts the worst-case scenario.
