I’ve never been a great gardener even though my mother Toni was such prolific that our house had a “plant room” that was inhabited by a jungle of house plants that had effectively reclaimed the room via an impenetrable web of leaves and stems. My soulmate Cate has helped me find my inner green thumb with a big assist from the strong New Orleans om/breath of life and the fun of creating a garden for our box turtles to live in on our balcony overlooking St. Mary street in the LGD or Lower Garden District. So you’ll have to forgive me for having gardens on the brain while I project the upcoming season. Good players, schemes, and offensive minds can create fertile soil that allows numbers to grow beyond our most optimistic projections. Some offenses look primed to bear more fruit this year via better-worked land and a good reading of the climate in the NFL. They are well-fertilized if you will. Alternatively, my imagination could just be loading up a wheelbarrow of poop.
Our job at this time of year is not best accomplished through early rankings, but instead of assemble the information we have compiled to date to set the stage for the open of training camp so we can identify the most meaningful stories that are precursors to changes that will affect the outcome of fantasy matchups and championships in the upcoming season. We can’t pay attention to everything equally while we’re drinking from the training camp firehose of news, so I set out here to help prioritize which offenses deserve the most scrutiny this summer.
It’s possible that some of the time spent projecting every player and team in the league for the season is effectively wasted. Not every offense presents the potential to create overachievers who exceed expectations in a way that affects the outcome of fantasy leagues. Focusing on those offenses in your preparation and stacking your roster with them is part of a strategy to draft effectively and get significantly more than your initial wallet of draft capital on your roster. This doesn’t mean that you should exclusively focus on offenses on this list, but that your player/situation analysis should include additional room for growth simply because a player is part of one of these offenses. That becomes even more important to weight when we stock our benches in the second half of drafts because upside is all that should matter at that stage. Who are the ten offenses with the most potential for explosive growth this season?
10. Baltimore Ravens
This one hinges on your view of Lamar Jackson’s potential growth as a passer and Greg Roman’s ability to implement an offense to maximize Jackson’s budding abilities. Jackson will have a full offseason to prepare as the starter and Roman can pull from successful stints with Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor leading his offenses in San Francisco and Buffalo. The running game will continue to be robust, and it added Mark Ingram and Justice Hill. The passing game lost John Brown and Michael Crabtree, but added Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin in the draft, and should get a healthier Hayden Hurst. As long as we assume rational coaching, we should see a lot livelier passing game leverage a dominant running game with more speed and experience than the 2018 version.
Draft Targets: Jackson is an ideal leadoff hitter in a quarterback streaming approach with an opening run of Miami, Arizona, and Kansas City on the schedule. Hill costs little in redraft leagues and could have a key role with explosive play potential right away. Ingram is reasonably priced for a lead back in a run-heavy offense. Mark Andrews had historic efficiency for a rookie and could make a big leap in year two - perhaps even becoming the most productive receiver - not just tight end - in this offense. Chris Moore has been toiling away and he could start the year as the #1 wide receiver, although he’s more early waiver wire target than late-round target because he’s almost completely off of the fantasy radar.
Monitor: Brown and Boykin’s injury recovery is big as it could hold the key to Moore and Andrews early season ceilings. Hill’s role is big not only for his value but for Ingram’s weekly ceiling. Jackson’s growth as a passer and Roman’s ability to make him comfortable overshadows any other storyline here. Based on Kaepernick and Taylor’s performances, this offense should produce one or two reliable fantasy pass-catchers, which is one or two more than they had with Jackson last year.
9. Chicago Bears
We shouldn’t overlook the possibility of an already sometimes potent offense turning the heat dial up a few notches this year. Mitchell Trubisky will get his second year of grooming under Matt Nagy. Kyle Long might actually play more than ten games. Allen Robinson won’t be coming off of an ACL rehab offseason and new quarterback/offense acclimation. Anthony Miller will be healthier. The addition of Mike Davis and David Montgomery should keep the offense in multiple modes of attack settings more often. Adam Shaheen should be healthier and activate two tight end sets to their fullest potential. Cordarrelle Patterson will do his thing on special teams and on packages designed to use his open field running ability. The offense tailed off after Trubisky got hurt last year, which could be responsible for the general bad taste in the mouths of fantasy analysts when they consider Trubisky, and by association, the lukewarm feelings towards the Bears offense.
Draft targets: Robinson was an elite WR1 with Blake freaking Bortles. He’s back to full speed and square in his prime. Getting him in the fifth feels like a gift. Mike Davis held off Rashaad Penny last year, he should be able to do the same to Montgomery and certainly have enough value to deserve a look in the late rounds. Trubisky has a tough run of defenses in September, but was a strong QB1 before his injury and is worth more than his ADP suggests.
Monitor: What kind of buzz is a healthy Robinson creating? How is Anthony Miller’s surgically repaired, oft-injured shoulder? How are the running backs being used? Is Trubisky making enough progress to open up new sections of the playbook? Is Shaheen taking away some passing looks from Trey Burton? Unfortunately, the Bears cup runneth over with viable targets in the passing game, and they benefit from rational coaching. The better they are at perfecting a myriad of personnel packages, formations, and variety of play calls out of those packages/formations, the more unpredictable they will be for fantasy and defensive game planning. On the plus side, will help efficiency, and all converge at Trubisky.
8. San Francisco 49ers
Remember how excited we were for Jimmy Garoppolo leading this offense last year? We never got to see what was possible, but the 49ers offense remained functional, which is impressive when you have C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens at quarterback, a revolving door at running back, and sporadic stretches of good health from your top three wide receivers. What Kyle Shanahan and company did was downright heroic. Garoppolo has been on the practice field in a meaningful way this offseason despite being 8-9 months removed from his ACL tear. The team added Deebo Samuel in the second round and should get more from Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin this year. Shanahan also added pet running back Tevin Coleman and has assembled numerous elements that he tagged as good fits for his offense. They open with the Bucs, Bengals, Steelers, and Browns in what should be one of their easier defensive stretches of the season, and that could create momentum for a sleeping giant.
Draft targets: Remember when we thought Marquise Goodwin was the #1 receiver in this offense last summer. We know the chemistry between him and Garoppolo was instant. Yes, Samuel and Pettis are there, but Goodwin shouldn’t be the afterthought in drafts that he is right now. Tevin Coleman is cheap for a running back who should open the season with the first shot at capturing this potentially lucrative backfield (but keep Raheem Mostert on waiver wire speed dial).
Monitor: Will Garoppolo and Goodwin rekindle the fire that lit up training camp reports last year? Will Samuel secure a large role from day one? How are the backs deployed? Maybe the simplest but most important question in this offense - which backs and receivers are the healthiest entering the season?
7. Cincinnati Bengals
Yes, Cincinnati. Zac Taylor is bringing the Rams offensive blueprint, which is an excellent fit for the Bengals personnel. Joe Mixon-Todd Gurley, Tyler Boyd-Cooper Kupp, John Ross-Brandin Cooks, A.J. Green-Anyone he wants to be. Say what you will about Andy Dalton’s limitations, but he’s very good at being an extension of the coach and scheme. The offensive line should be better with the addition of instant starting left tackle and #11 pick Jonah Williams and better health from last year’s first rounder, center Billy Price. Tyler Eifert could be a big bonus if he stays healthy. They should be almost completely dug out of the hole created by offensive line woes, coaching instability, and a general lack of imagination in the late Marvin Lewis years.
Draft Targets: A.J. Green falling to the third round is absurd. Boyd isn’t one of my main targets, but his production from last year more than justifies his modest price. Ross costs next to nothing and has a fresh start after it’s clear Marvin Lewis didn’t like him. Mixon has the fewest questions of the second tier of RB1 candidates with an unknown ceiling. Eifert is dirt cheap and he’s coming off of a freak injury, not a recurrence of back issues that may shorten his career.
Monitor: As long as he stays healthy, John Ross should take the next step after being a touchdown maker last year. Eifert’s health is also key. Giovani Bernard is one of the most underutilized backs in the league. Let’s see if a new staff makes more use of him.
6. Indianapolis Colts
It’s easy to forget that we were still worried about Andrew Luck’s shoulder at this time last year. Luck’s slow and steady rehab did not allow for a lot of prep time in his new offense. Still, the results were undeniable when Luck knocked off the rust mid-season and hit his stride. Now, he’ll be coming off of a full offseason of preparation in the Reich/Sirianni offense - an offense that has a strong offensive line, additional difference makers at wide receiver in free agent signing Devin Funchess and second-round pick Parris Campbell, and at least a few players who will have better health than last year from Jack Doyle, Marlon Mack, T.Y. Hilton, and Deon Cain. This offense is verging on juggernaut status, and may only be held back by the growth of the defense, which could lead to more comfortable wins and run-heavy second halves of games. There’s also the 21st-century offense model of 8-10 players touching the ball and having the potential to be significant parts of the game plan every week complicating things.
Draft targets: If Mack can stay healthy and pick up where he left off last year, he’ll be an RB1 coming at RB2 prices. Doyle is ridiculously cheap for a player who was a solid TE1 when he was healthy last year. Campbell is also available for pocket change even though he could hit the ground running. Luck could set new highs, but the quarterback position is overflowing with values, so he might not be a prime target here. Nyheim Hines should be even better this year, but the arrival of Campbell will cap his ceiling.
Monitor: Mo Alie-Cox is another basketball convert tight end who could hit for fantasy, although it might take an injury for him to fully arrive this year. If he takes a big step forward in camp/preseason this year, it will be time to pounce in deep dynasty leagues. Spencer Ware is still a very good all-around back, and probably the most well-rounded back on the roster. He won’t threaten Mack’s status atop the depth chart but could situate himself as the back to roster if (when?) Mack misses time. Even if Deon Cain isn’t ready for Week 1, the Colts could have a surplus of quality wide receivers with Funchess and a developing Chester Rogers ready to provide quality snaps outside opposite Hilton. What’s good for this offense’s versatility week-to-week and Luck’s efficiency may not be good for reliability of weekly projections, so we’ll watch the pecking order and deployment of all of the targets.
5. Philadelphia Eagles
At this time last year, Carson Wentz’s return was uncertain and he wasn’t practicing with the team. He got a late start and an early finish to the season. It appears that he is basically full go, and he is getting to develop chemistry with new additions Desean Jackson and JJ Arcega-Whiteside. Alshon Jeffery missed the entire offseason and got a late start last year. Miles Sanders represents an infusion of physical talent and youth in the backfield (although he is battling a hamstring issue). Doug Pederson will not remain at rest and this team should be aggressive on offense, in addition to using Jordan Howard to key a run game that will be more Patriots/Rams-esque as a foundation of the offense, assuming Howard can unlock the value of an elite offensive line. Dallas Goedert should be ready to add more of a vertical element from the tight end position. Lots of arrows are pointing up here.
Draft targets: Jackson is riffing with Wentz early on and looks like a massive value considering his ability to make fantasy WR1 level music with Ryan Fitzpatrick last year. Goedert could make a big leap and get over the low bar of entry to the fantasy TE1 ranks. Howard is an afterthought but could have the same early season value that Jay Ajayi had last year.
Monitor: Of course, Wentz’s health is key here, but everything looks on target. If Howard is impressing as a runner (there are similar drumbeats about his receiving ability being unlocked as last year, but burn me once…) then he should preserve early season value. Goedert could lower Zach Ertz’s ceiling while raising his own. Will Jackson overshadow Alshon Jeffery in the downfield passing game? Can Arcega-Whiteside push Nelson Agholor for playing time? We know this will be an efficient, explosive offense, but also one that uses 7-9 players touching the ball every week, so having a good idea of the pecking order and usage patterns has increased importance.
4. Green Bay Packers
There’s a potential for a big bounce here simply on the momentum of Aaron Rodgers no longer being embroiled in a power struggle with his head coach that plays out via ugly play. Matt Lafleur should make the offense more exciting and innovative, and greatly improve the play calls and running back usage. A young wide receiver group will be more experienced and ready to mesh with Rodgers and the new offense. But really this circles back to the possibility of Rodgers looking like not only one of the best quarterbacks in the league right now, but to have ever played the game.
Draft targets: Aaron Jones came on as a receiver last year in addition to looking like clearly the best runner on the team. He could provide RB1 value as late as the fourth round. Davante Adams could set the standard for all wide receiver and end up being deserving of the first wide receiver off of the board draft capital. Someone - Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Geronimo Allison, Jake Kumerow - will emerge as the #2 and have a high weekly ceiling.
Monitor: Jimmy Graham’s health, usage in the new offense, and chemistry with Rodgers could end up making him worth a pick at a very deflated ADP. The WR2/WR3 battles are big, as is Aaron Jones’ quest to be a true lead back after Mike McCarthy was reluctant to commit to him. The overall integration of the offense and the details of its installation will provide a great context for all of these questions.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This was already a very exciting offense, but the synergy between Bruce Arians and Jameis Winston could be very beneficial. Losing DeSean Jackson hurts, and relying on Breshad Perriman to be the vertical threat could be unwise, but O.J. Howard will be healthier and an altogether different vertical threat for defenses to reckon with. The most intriguing fantasy angle here is the redemption of Ronald Jones and the promise of some contribution by the running game to overall offensive and team success. This will be one of the biggest passing fantasy pies to divide up. Can Arians and his illustrious staff revive the running game?
Draft targets: Perriman will be on the late round target list with a healthy summer, and perhaps John Brown-esque sixth-round rookie Scott Miller will be on our radar if Perriman can’t stay on the field. Howard is the most likely tight end outside of the top three to crash the Kelce/Kittle/Ertz party. The speculative price on Ronald Jones keeps going up, but he could distance himself from Peyton Barber with a good summer. A season opener against the 49ers at home makes Winston worth a look for streamers.
Monitor: The Perriman/Miller situation resolution and how much Cameron Brate will lower Howard’s ceiling. Can Ronald Jones carry over his momentum from the offseason? Is Winston taking to Arians system (which seems tailored for a quarterback exactly like him)? Arians is a straight shooter, so we should get a lot of insight into their progress next summer.
2. Cleveland Browns
No AFC offense on this list has more potential to become a fantasy pinball machine than the Browns. Baker Mayfield will have a full year to prepare as the starter. Todd Monken will bring the offensive mindset that created a massive passing offense in Tampa Bay last year with lesser quarterbacks than Mayfield. The team added Odell Beckham, possibly the most field-tilting receiver in the league. Antonio Callaway will have a full offseason with a regime that believes in him pulling the strings. David Njoku is entering his prime with a considerable amount of physical upside and legion of dangerous pass-catchers to dilute coverage. Kareem Hunt will provide a midseason infusion of talent at running back behind Nick Chubb, who will run roughshod over defenses. If the team keeps and satisfies Duke Johnson Jr’s discontent, he’ll add another mismatch dimension. The only real question mark here is the offensive line after the team traded Kevin Zeitler for Olivier Vernon
Draft Targets: Chubb in the second sounds good as the piledriver in an offense that will be constructing copious touchdown drives. Jarvis Landry’s target share will go down, but the value of each target will go up because of more downfield targets, more snaps from the slot, and defenses that are distorted to account for Beckham, et al. Njoku is exciting, although he could be asked to block more to help a few suspect spots on the line. Antonio Callaway costs little but could come up big in the role DeSean Jackson made into WR1 numbers for a good stretch last year.
Monitor: Greg Robinson and whoever replaces Zeitler will be the key to whether this offense can approach the peak of its unknown ceiling. Johnson’s fate is a big variable and the team likes Dontrell Hilliard, so they might be able to keep the receiving back role viable while recouping something for Johnson. Mostly just watching what Kitchens/Monken/Mayfield have in store will be fun while enhancing our understanding of what this offense will be capable of.
1. Arizona Cardinals
Ah, we save the best for last. There is a convergence of special factors here. Maybe not a true perfect storm, but one that will usher in a climate change in NFL offenses that will ripple through the atmosphere for years and create disruption in the power balance of fantasy leagues this year.
First, you have a head coach that basically married his career as an NFL head coach to a quarterback he has been fantasizing about running his offense for years.
Second, you have an organization that appears to have given that coach carte blanche in personnel acquisition via the draft and implementation of his aggressive offensive system
Third, you have an offense that will be primed for top-end numbers in its range of outcome because of poor defense, a high number of plays run, and tactical advantage over defenses that will not have adequate preparation for such a pure implementation of a “college” offense (especially early in the season)
The offensive line is a potential Achilles heel, although the rash of injuries last year made it look worse than it was, and the nature of Kyler Murray should keep opponents from pinning their ears back and rushing him because he will be lethal as a run/pass threat outside of the pocket. The optimal strategy is to keep him stationary and corralled in the pocket.
Are you excited? I’m excited. Don’t be surprised when this offense is the talk of fantasy football circles in September.
Draft targets: Murray has QB1 overall potential, taking him around QB5 could be greatly rewarded. David Johnson could go back to uber-stud status and present value in the mid-first. Christian Kirk could be the primary target and destroy his early ADP. Any number of complementary targets - even guys like KeeSean Johnson and Trent Sherfield - could become fantasy relevant or even weekly WR3/Flex plays. Get a share or three of this offense in your draft, folks.
Monitor: Everything. How Johnson is being used. How the pecking order at wide receiver is shaking out. Who is “getting” the scheme the fastest. How the line is gelling. The vibe around the team about their new system. Everything.
