One of the trickiest things to navigate as you approach your draft is how much -- or how little -- to react to training camp scuttlebutt, preseason highlights, and the resulting swings in Average Draft Position (ADP). Sometimes when a player’s ADP peaks this time of year, it’s warranted. But oftentimes, preseason surges in ADP are the results of groupthink and confirmation bias within the fantasy football community, which create landmines Fantasy GMs must carefully avoid.
Below you’ll find a list of players whose ADP has increased significantly in PPR leagues since training camps opened per our ADP data. Are we sure we want to pay top dollar to get these guys on our teams?
Kalen Ballage
Where we started: Pick 176 (14.03). Most people assumed the departure of Adam Gase would result in an increased workload for Kenyan Drake. Ballage was just another non-descript name on the depth chart with major questions about his ability to run between the tackles at the pro level.
Where are we now: Pick 118 (10.07). The only opinion that matters on whether Ballage can excel in the NFL belongs to the Dolphins' new coaching regime headed by Brian Flores. Ballage has been the first running back through team drills since training camp opened.
Are we sure we have it right? No.
Ballage showed undeniable shortcomings as a runner at Arizona State. He was indecisive, lacked vision, ran upright, and went down too easily after contact. Despite those warts, however, there is plenty to like about Ballage -- namely elite size-adjusted speed and the ability to catch passes out of the backfield. He also spent a year under the tutelage of crafty veteran Frank Gore and flashed big-play upside on limited opportunities as a rookie.
For fantasy purposes, though, the issue is not who Ballage is -- or isn’t -- as a running back. It’s about projecting touches in what profiles as one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Speculation from beat writers points to a 45/40 split of the team’s backfield workload between Drake and Ballage with the remaining 15% going to the Dolphins secondary backs. And in Miami’s first preseason game, Drake was in on 9-of-13 snaps with the Ryan Fitzpatrick group, while Ballage rotated in for only four first-team snaps (though he did score on a goal-line carry).
Unless Drake’s recent leg injury causes him to miss regular-season games, Ballage is a timeshare back on a team with bad quarterbacks, the worst offensive line in football, and a defense that won’t afford him many (any?) run-heavy game scripts. Taking a stab on his unknown upside was defensible in Round 14 but now you need to draft Ballage ahead of other backups like Damien Harris, Duke Johnson Jr, and Alexander Mattison, each of whom would slot in as a weekly top-12 running back if the starter in front of them went down. Pass on Ballage and his rising ADP.
Tony Pollard
Where we started: Pick 243 (20.03). Pollard was an unproven fourth-round draft pick who was slated for kick return duties and not much more.
Where are we now: Pick 189 (14.08). Ezekiel Elliott is holding out of training camp -- a situation which may not resolve itself before the season starts.
Are we sure we have it right? Yes.
Pollard was the starter in Elliott’s absence during Dallas’ first preseason game and came off the field after nine snaps with the rest of the first-team offense. Following the game, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said the team is comfortable with Pollard carrying the load if need be. Jones’ statement came on the heels of reports Pollard has been everything the team had hoped for and more thus far in training camp.
Pollard went overlooked during the draft process due to being stuck behind Darrell Henderson at Memphis, but his rate stats jump off the page. He averaged 6.8 yards-per-carry, 9.2 yards per touch, and scored a touchdown on every 13.5 touches as a member of the Tigers. Both his yards-per-carry average and college target share ranked above the 90th percentile. Unlike smallish running backs who have been pigeon-holed into a “joker” role before him, Pollard is six-feet tall and 210 lbs., giving him enough size to run between the tackles.
If Elliott ends his holdout before Week 1 (the most likely outcome at this point), drafting Pollard won’t immediately tilt the outcome of your league. But as the Cowboys locked-in No. 2 running back, he instantly becomes one of the most valuable handcuffs in fantasy football, and should at least have situational value as a slot receiver/gadget player while Elliott is on the field. Pollard’s ADP hasn’t risen far enough yet.
DeSean Jackson
Where we started: Pick 150 (13.01). Our last memories of Jackson from 2018 were multiple injuries and a second-half tailspin.
Where are we now: Pick 119 (10.08). Early reports from training camp described the connection between Jackson and Carson Wentz as automatic.
Are we sure we have it right? Yes.
DeSean Jackson is still good, Wentz is finally healthy, and opposing defenses can’t account for all of the Eagles pass-catching weapons on any given play.
If you think Jackson has lost a step, you are wrong. NFL Next Gen Stats clocked his Week 9 kick return against Carolina at 21.48 miles per hour, which was one of the 18 fastest max speeds by a ball-carrier last season.
Before Ryan Fitzpatrick was benched coming out of Tampa Bay’s Week 5 bye, Jackson ranked as the cumulative WR4 in standard leagues. While he was never going to keep up such a torrid pace for a full season, it’s no coincidence Jackson’s statistical decline came as soon as Jameis Winston entered the starting lineup. Per Pro Football Focus, Winston completed 32.6% of his deep pass attempts last season, the third-lowest rate among relevant quarterbacks (minimum 200 total pass attempts). Fitzpatrick finished the year at 48.4%, which is more in line with Wentz’s 44.5% deep pass completion rate over the last two seasons.
As usual with Jackson, you’re going to have to take the good weeks with the bad, especially since Wentz has so many options in the passing game. But he never should have been available in Round 13 (in any format) and remains positioned to outperform his rising ADP.
Austin Ekeler
Where we started: Pick 97 (8.11). Ekeler was a handcuff-plus in PPR leagues -- a clear backup with a reliable role in the passing game. His reception floor and explosiveness made him start-worthy in a pinch when Melvin Gordon was healthy, and a lottery ticket if Gordon was to get hurt (again).
Where are we now: Pick 118 (7.01). Gordon says he won’t play until he gets a new contract or a trade out of LA. Adam Schefter warned us to brace for a lengthy absence from the outset and his most recent report doesn’t sound more promising.
Are we sure we have it right? Yes.
Click here to read six reasons why Ekeler is one of the best seventh-round picks you can currently make. His status as a potential mid-round breakout candidate was solidified in the Chargers’ first preseason game when Ekeler played on 12-of-17 first-team snaps, and basically only came off the field after big runs.
Donte Moncrief
Where we started: Pick 139 (12.02). Moncrief was the poster child for workout warrior turned athletic bust as he prepared to suit up for his third team in the last three seasons.
Where are we now: Pick 126 (11.01). Moncrief opened Steelers camp as the starter opposite JuJu Smith-Schuster and still sounds like the front-runner for the starting job.
Are we sure we have it right? Probably.
It’s easy to make excuses for Moncrief’s disappointing career arc. Following a promising age-23 campaign in 2015 (105-64-733-6), he missed 11 combined games over the next two seasons due to injury. When he finally got healthy beginning in 2017, Moncrief had to catch passes from Jacoby Brissett, Blake Bortles, and Cody Kessler.
Moncrief is still (somehow) only 26-years old but how many wide receivers have broken out in year-six with their third NFL team? At this point in his career, we've long since passed the point where the allure of Moncrief's athleticism outweighs his lack of on-field production. But it’s undeniable he made the most of a bad situation last year with the Jaguars, who fielded the second-worst offense in the league in 2018.
Moncrief commanded a solid 17.4% target market share in Jacksonville and led the team in air yards by a wide margin. During a stretch from Weeks 4-10, he was quietly a fringe top-25 fantasy option. It’s not impossible a massive quarterback upgrade and the 30% target void left behind by the departures of Antonio Brown and Jesse James can help a healthy Moncrief make good on his post-hype sleeper status.
Hopefully, James Washington’s splashy performance in Pittsburgh’s first preseason game slows the Moncrief hype train. Washington is reportedly competing for the No. 3 role with rookie Diontae Johnson, which means Moncrief is still in the No. 2 chair if the season started today.
Kerryon Johnson
Where we started: Pick 39 (4.02). Johnson was coming off an impressive rookie season, though he was limited to 10 games due to injury. The Lions prioritized the backup running back position in free-agency and Theo Riddick was still around to curb Johnson’s pass-catching upside.
Where are we now: Pick 26 (3.03). Riddick was let go and signed with the Broncos. The Lions have cleared the runway for Johnson and given him the “wheels up” signal.
Are we sure we have it right? Yes.
Johnson was an efficiency monster last season, ranking ninth in Football Outsiders’ rushing success rate metric. His 5.4 yards per attempt was especially impressive when you consider Detroit’s other running backs combined to average only 3.4 yards per attempt.
The Lions will run the ball for as long as game scripts allow them to under new offensive coordinator Darrel Bevel. Bevel’s Seahawks teams finished top-3 in rush attempts in four of his final six seasons in Seattle. But with Riddick out of the way, it's Johnson's pass-catching upside we should be most excited about.
Johnson was on pace for a 50-catch season last year if he had maintained his target rate and catch percentage over a full 16 games. With Riddick gone, beat writer speculation Johnson could catch 50 passes feels closer to a floor projection. An additional 4.6 short-area targets per game are now unaccounted for in Detroit. 75 catches -- a number eclipsed by only five running backs in 2018 -- is suddenly within Johnson’s range of possible outcomes. The only reason to be concerned about drafting Johnson as a foundational piece is his injury history.
Tyler Boyd
Where we started: Pick 69 (6.08). Boyd broke out for 1,026 yards and seven touchdowns in 2018 but slowed down considerably in the second half.
Where are we now: Pick 58 (5.09). A.J. Green has torn ankle ligaments and will miss an undetermined number of regular-season games.
Are we sure we have it right? No.
Boyd is a fine player and his targets will increase while Green is sidelined. Added volume is undeniably a positive for wide receivers in fantasy football and you should be bumping up Boyd’s projections as a result. But shouldn’t we be looking for more than a safe target floor in Round 5?
The loss of Green is a net negative for every Bengals skill position player. Boyd will receive more targets to be certain, but those targets will be less valuable. In eight games played with both Green and Andy Dalton in the lineup last year, Boyd averaged 77.5 receiving yards and 0.63 touchdowns per game. In Dalton’s three starts without Green in the lineup, those numbers dropped to 73.7 and 0.33, respectively.
It’s a small sample, but it makes sense Boyd would be less efficient without one of the best wide receivers in the league on the field to command defensive attention, make downfield plays, and help put the team in a better position to score points. Drafting Boyd means passing on players like Tyler Lockett, Sony Michel, Tevin Coleman, and O.J. Howard, each of whom has potential league-swinging upside in the same ADP range. Boyd is a solid WR2 with or without Green in the lineup, but at his current price, he won’t be the primary reason you’re hoisting a trophy in December. Aim higher.
Duke Johnson Jr
Where we started: Pick 172 (14.01). Johnson was backing up a bell-cow (Nick Chubb) and Kareem Hunt’s return from suspension threatened to squeeze him out of the Browns’ game plan entirely by the season’s midway point.
Where are we now: Pick 133 (11.08). Johnson was traded to Houston, where all that stands in the way of fantasy stardom is one of the most uninspiring starting running backs in recent memory.
Are we sure we have it right? Yes (but maybe not for the reason you think).
Johnson was an afterthought in Cleveland. Now he’s just a Lamar Miller ankle sprain away from proving what anyone who has followed Johnson’s career already knows -- he’s much more than a third-down specialist.
Despite the way he’s been used since entering the league, Johnson is no scat-back. He weighs about 210 lbs. (60th percentile BMI) and is the University of Miami’s all-time rushing leader. Johnson’s 4.34 yards-per-carry on base downs ranks inside the top-20 since 2015 (minimum 250 carries). For comparison, Miller averaged 4.19 yards-per-carry on first and second down runs over the same span.
We shouldn’t completely discount the fact Johnson has more receiving yards since 2015 than any running back in the league, but Footballguys alum Heath Cummings raises an interesting point about his pass-catching upside in Houston:
13.5% of Deshaun Watson's targets went to RBs last year, nobody threw to their backs less.
— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) August 8, 2019
16.7% of Deshaun Watson's targets went RBs in his rookie year.
Like many running quarterbacks before him, Deshaun Watson would sooner take off when his protection breaks down than check down to his running back. Hopefully, having a player with Johnson’s skillset changes things à la Cam Newton once Christian McCaffrey joined the Panthers, but it’s a question mark at this stage.
Absent heavy volume in the passing game, Johnson is more of a handcuff than a stand-alone weekly contributor. But even as a clear back-up, he’s an easy pick inside the Top 40 running backs. Miller is as milquetoast as they come, Houston’s offense is one of the best in the league, and Johnson’s combination of athleticism, versatility, and explosiveness make him exactly the type of running back you want on your bench.
Chris Carson
Where we started: Pick 57 (5.09). Carson finished as top-15 running back in PPR leagues last year despite catching only 20 passes. But Seattle couldn’t possibly play him ahead of 2018 first-round draft pick Rashaad Penny for a second straight season. Right?
Where are we now: Pick 48 (4.12). Carson is playing ahead of Penny for a second straight season.
Are we sure we have it right? Yes.
Carson entered 2018 with major questions about his pedigree and ability to stay healthy but the former seventh-round pick answered those questions emphatically. He finished with nine weekly top-20 fantasy finishes, which trailed only Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Melvin Gordon -- essentially the running back elite.
After leading all backs with at least 240 carries in yards after contact per attempt, Carson is expected to command at least two-thirds of Seahawks’ backfield workload this season. Even though Penny’s role will expand in his second season, the entire pie might be bigger in Seattle this year. Mike Davis leaves behind 112 carries and 42 targets from last season, opening the door for Carson to contribute more as a receiver.
Head coach Pete Carroll recently said Carson might have the best hands on the entire team and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer seconded that notion when he suggested Carson’s targets could double from last year. Carson has been an excellent value all summer but it appears he’s finally properly valued as a sturdy RB2.
Josh Gordon
Where we started: Pick 201 (15.05). Gordon was indefinitely suspended for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy. Again.
Where are we now: Rocket Ship Emoji. Gordon has been reinstated. Again. As of this writing, it's too early to zero in on his ADP but look for it to settle around the sixth round.
Are we sure we have it right? Yes.
Gordon looked a step slower in New England after appearing in only 10 games over the previous four seasons, but there is no denying he instantly becomes the Patriots best option on the perimeter.
From Weeks 5-14 last year, Gordon ranked as the cumulative WR22 in PPR leagues and was 12th among wide receivers in total air yards. For context, the wide receivers currently being drafted in the WR22 range include Lockett, Green, Boyd, and D.J. Moore. Just like each of those players, Gordon is a fantasy difference-maker worthy of starting as a WR2/flex in any given week, and it's likely you won't have to draft him as early due to relapse concerns.
