Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED FRIDAY 1/18 @ 6 PM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | LA Rams | -3 | 56.5 | 29.75 | +++ | +++ | |
| Kansas City | New England | -3 | 56 | 29.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| LA Rams | New Orleans | 3 | 56.5 | 26.75 | ++ | ++ | |
| New England | Kansas City | 3 | 56 | 25.5 | ++ | ++ |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), Damien Williams (Chiefs)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/Ted Ginn Jr/TreQuan Smith/Josh Hill (Saints), Tyreek Hill/Sammy Watkins/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Jared Goff (Rams), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Todd Gurley/C.J. Anderson (Rams), Sony Michel/James White/Rex Burkhead (Patriots)
- Receivers: Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Josh Reynolds/Gerald Everett (Rams), Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Phillip Dorsett/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)
- Defense: None
1-STAR
- Quarterback: None
- Running Back: None
- Receivers: None
- Defense: None
