Photo: Imagn Images
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SUNDAY 12/23 @ 8 AM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | Pittsburgh | -6.5 | 29.75 | 53 | +++ | +++ | |
| LA Rams | Arizona | -14 | 29 | 44 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
| New England | Buffalo | -13.5 | 29 | 44.5 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
| Indianapolis | NY Giants | -9.5 | 28.75 | 48 | +++ | +++ | + |
| Kansas City | Seattle | -2 | 28.5 | 55 | +++ | +++ | |
| Dallas | Tampa Bay | -7 | 27.5 | 48 | ++ | +++ | |
| Cleveland | Cincinnati | -9.5 | 26.75 | 44 | ++ | +++ | ++ |
| Seattle | Kansas City | 2 | 26.5 | 55 | ++ | ++ | |
| Green Bay | NY Jets | -3 | 25 | 47 | + | + | |
| Minnesota | Detroit | -6.5 | 24.75 | 43 | + | + | + |
| Philadelphia | Houston | -2.5 | 24.75 | 47 | + | + | |
| Tennessee | Washington | -11.5 | 24.75 | 38 | + | + | +++ |
| Chicago | San Francisco | -4.5 | 24.25 | 44 | + | + | + |
| Atlanta | Carolina | -3 | 23.75 | 44.5 | |||
| LA Chargers | Baltimore | -4 | 23.25 | 42.5 | + | ||
| Pittsburgh | New Orleans | 6.5 | 23.25 | 53 | |||
| Denver | Oakland | -3 | 22.5 | 42 | + | ||
| Houston | Philadelphia | 2.5 | 22.25 | 47 | |||
| NY Jets | Green Bay | 3 | 22 | 47 | |||
| Miami | Jacksonville | -3.5 | 20.75 | 38 | ++ | ||
| Carolina | Atlanta | 3 | 20.75 | 44.5 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Dallas | 7 | 20.5 | 48 | |||
| San Francisco | Chicago | 4.5 | 19.75 | 44 | |||
| Oakland | Denver | 3 | 19.5 | 42 | |||
| Baltimore | LA Chargers | 4 | 19.25 | 42.5 | |||
| NY Giants | Indianapolis | 9.5 | 19.25 | 48 | |||
| Detroit | Minnesota | 6.5 | 18.25 | 43 | |||
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | 9.5 | 17.25 | 44 | |||
| Jacksonville | Miami | 3.5 | 17.25 | 38 | |||
| Buffalo | New England | 13.5 | 15.5 | 44.5 | |||
| Arizona | LA Rams | 14 | 15 | 44 | |||
| Washington | Tennessee | 11.5 | 13.25 | 38 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Jared Goff (Rams), Tom Brady (Patriots), Andrew Luck (Colts), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), John Kelly (Rams), Sony Michel/James White (Patriots), Damien Williams (Chiefs), Marlon Mack (Colts), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Nick Chubb (Browns)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/TreQuan Smith/Josh Hill (Saints), Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Josh Reynolds (Rams), Julian Edelman/Josh Gordon/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), T.Y. Hilton/Ryan Grant/Chester Rogers/Eric Ebron (Colts), Tyreek Hill/Chris Conley/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Defense: Titans, Rams, Patriots
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Baker Mayfield (Browns), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Chris Carson (Seahawks)
- Receivers: Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/Cole Beasley/Blake Jarwin (Cowboys), Jarvis Landry/Antonio Callaway/David Njoku (Browns), Doug Baldwin/David Moore/Tyler Lockett (Seahawks)
- Defense: Dolphins, Browns
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Carson Wentz (Eagles), Marcus Mariota (Titans), Mitchell Trubisky (Bears)
- Running Back: Jamaal Williams (Packers), Dalvin Cook (Vikings), Josh Adams (Eagles), Derrick Henry/Dion Lewis (Titans), Jordan Howard/Tarik Cohen (Bears)
- Receivers: Davante Adams/Equanimeous St. Brown/Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Jimmy Graham (Packers), Adam Thielen/Stefon Diggs/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/Golden Tate/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Corey Davis/Taywan Taylor/MyCole Pruitt (Titans), Allen Robinson/Taylor Gabriel/Anthony Miller/Trey Burton (Bears)
- Defense: Vikings, Colts, Chargers, Broncos, Bears
Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags
Daily FF
DraftKings
Davante Adams
Josh Adams
Nelson Agholor
Cole Beasley
Tom Brady
Antonio Callaway
Chris Carson
Nick Chubb
Chris Conley
Brandin Cooks
Dalvin Cook
Amari Cooper
Kirk Cousins
Corey Davis
Stefon Diggs
Eric Ebron
Ezekiel Elliott
Zach Ertz
Michael Gallup
Jared Goff
Josh Gordon
Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
Derrick Henry
Tyreek Hill
T.Y. Hilton
Jordan Howard
Mark Ingram II
Blake Jarwin
Alvin Kamara
Travis Kelce
John Kelly Jr.
Jarvis Landry
Tyler Lockett
Marlon Mack
Patrick Mahomes II
Marcus Mariota
Baker Mayfield
Sony Michel
Anthony Miller
David Moore
David Njoku
Dak Prescott
MyCole Pruitt
Josh Reynolds
Allen Robinson II
Aaron Rodgers
Chester Rogers
Kyle Rudolph
Tre'Quan Smith
Equanimeous St. Brown
Adam Thielen
Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas
Mitch Trubisky
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Carson Wentz
James White
Damien Williams
Jamaal Williams
Russell Wilson
Robert Woods
