Photo: Imagn Images
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SUNDAY 12/16 @ 8 AM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA Rams | Philadelphia | -13 | 32.5 | 52 | +++ | +++ | |
| Kansas City | LA Chargers | -3.5 | 29 | 54.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| New England | Pittsburgh | -2.5 | 28.25 | 54 | +++ | +++ | |
| New Orleans | Carolina | -6 | 28 | 50 | +++ | +++ | |
| Baltimore | Tampa Bay | -8.5 | 27.5 | 46.5 | ++ | +++ | + |
| Atlanta | Arizona | -9.5 | 26.75 | 44 | ++ | +++ | ++ |
| Minnesota | Miami | -7.5 | 26.25 | 45 | ++ | +++ | + |
| Chicago | Green Bay | -5 | 26 | 47 | ++ | ++ | |
| Pittsburgh | New England | 2.5 | 25.75 | 54 | + | + | |
| Houston | NY Jets | -7 | 25.75 | 44.5 | + | ++ | + |
| LA Chargers | Kansas City | 3.5 | 25.5 | 54.5 | + | + | |
| Indianapolis | Dallas | -3 | 25 | 47 | + | + | |
| Cincinnati | Oakland | -3 | 24.5 | 46 | + | + | |
| Denver | Cleveland | -1.5 | 24.25 | 47 | + | + | |
| Seattle | San Francisco | -3.5 | 23.5 | 43.5 | + | ||
| Cleveland | Denver | 1.5 | 22.75 | 47 | |||
| Carolina | New Orleans | 6 | 22 | 50 | |||
| Dallas | Indianapolis | 3 | 22 | 47 | |||
| Jacksonville | Washington | -7.5 | 22 | 36.5 | +++ | ||
| Oakland | Cincinnati | 3 | 21.5 | 46 | |||
| Tennessee | NY Giants | -1 | 21.5 | 42 | |||
| Buffalo | Detroit | -2.5 | 21.25 | 40 | + | ||
| Green Bay | Chicago | 5 | 21 | 47 | |||
| NY Giants | Tennessee | 1 | 20.5 | 42 | |||
| San Francisco | Seattle | 3.5 | 20 | 43.5 | |||
| Philadelphia | LA Rams | 13 | 19.5 | 52 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Baltimore | 8.5 | 19 | 46.5 | |||
| Miami | Minnesota | 7.5 | 18.75 | 45 | |||
| Detroit | Buffalo | 2.5 | 18.75 | 40 | |||
| NY Jets | Houston | 7 | 18.75 | 44.5 | |||
| Arizona | Atlanta | 9.5 | 17.25 | 44 | |||
| Washington | Jacksonville | 7.5 | 14.5 | 36.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Jared Goff (Rams), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Tom Brady (Patriots), Drew Brees (Saints)
- Running Back: Todd Gurley (Rams), Damien Williams (Chiefs), Sony Michel/James White/Rex Burkhead (Patriots), Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), Gus Edwards/Ken Dixon (Ravens), Tevin Coleman/Ito Smith (Falcons), Dalvin Cook (Vikings)
- Receivers: Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Josh Reynolds (Rams), Tyreek Hill/Chris Conley/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Julian Edelman/Josh Gordon/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Michael Thomas/TreQuan Smith/Dan Arnold (Saints)
- Defense: Jaguars
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Joe Flacco/Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Mitchell Trubisky (Bears)
- Running Back: Jordan Howard/Tarik Cohen (Bears), Lamar Miller (Texans)
- Receivers: Michael Crabtree/John Brown/Willie Snead (Ravens), Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Adam Thielen/Stefon Diggs/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Allen Robinson/Anthony Miller/Taylor Gabriel/Trey Burton (Bears)
- Defense: Falcons
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Jeff Driskel (Bengals), Case Keenum (Broncos), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Deshaun Watson (Texans), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Andrew Luck (Colts)
- Running Back: Phillip Lindsay (Broncos), Jaylen Samuels (Steelers), Justin Jackson (Chargers), Marlon Mack (Colts)
- Receivers: Tyler Boyd/John Ross/C.J. Uzomah (Bengals), Courtland Sutton/DaeSean Hamilton/Matt LaCosse (Broncos), Antonio Brown/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Vance McDonald (Steelers), DeAndre Hopkins/Demaryius Thomas/Ryan Griffin (Texans), Keenan Allen/Tyrell Williams/Mike Williams (Chargers), T.Y. Hilton/Ryan Grant/Chester Rogers/Eric Ebron (Colts)
- Defense: Texans, Bills, Vikings, Ravens, Rams
Photos provided by Imagn Images
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