Photo: Imagn Images
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SUNDAY DECEMBER 2nd @ 7 AM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | Oakland | -14 | 34.5 | 55 | +++ | +++ | |
| LA Rams | Detroit | -10 | 32.25 | 54.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| New Orleans | Dallas | -7.5 | 29.5 | 51.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | -3 | 28.25 | 53.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Seattle | San Francisco | -10 | 28 | 46 | +++ | +++ | + |
| Green Bay | Arizona | -13.5 | 27.5 | 41.5 | ++ | ++ | +++ |
| Pittsburgh | LA Chargers | -3 | 27.25 | 51.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| New England | Minnesota | -5 | 27.25 | 49.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Houston | Cleveland | -5.5 | 26.5 | 47.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Philadelphia | Washington | -6 | 25.5 | 45 | + | + | + |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -4 | 25.5 | 47 | + | + | |
| Atlanta | Baltimore | -2.5 | 25.5 | 48.5 | + | + | |
| Tampa Bay | Carolina | 3 | 25.25 | 53.5 | + | + | |
| Tennessee | NY Jets | -10 | 25.25 | 40.5 | + | ++ | +++ |
| Denver | Cincinnati | -5 | 25 | 45 | + | + | + |
| LA Chargers | Pittsburgh | 3 | 24.25 | 51.5 | + | + | |
| Chicago | NY Giants | -3.5 | 23.75 | 44 | |||
| Baltimore | Atlanta | 2.5 | 23 | 48.5 | |||
| Detroit | LA Rams | 10 | 22.25 | 54.5 | |||
| Minnesota | New England | 5 | 22.25 | 49.5 | |||
| Dallas | New Orleans | 7.5 | 22 | 51.5 | |||
| Miami | Buffalo | -3.5 | 21.75 | 40 | + | ||
| Jacksonville | Indianapolis | 4 | 21.5 | 47 | |||
| Cleveland | Houston | 5.5 | 21 | 47.5 | |||
| Oakland | Kansas City | 14 | 20.5 | 55 | |||
| NY Giants | Chicago | 3.5 | 20.25 | 44 | |||
| Cincinnati | Denver | 5 | 20 | 45 | |||
| Washington | Philadelphia | 6 | 19.5 | 45 | |||
| Buffalo | Miami | 3.5 | 18.25 | 40 | |||
| San Francisco | Seattle | 10 | 18 | 46 | |||
| NY Jets | Tennessee | 10 | 15.25 | 40.5 | |||
| Arizona | Green Bay | 13.5 | 14 | 41.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Jared Goff (Rams), Drew Brees (Saints), Cam Newton (Panthers), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), Todd Gurley (Rams), Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), Christian McCaffrey (Panthers), Chris Carson (Seahawks)
- Receivers: Sammy Watkins/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Josh Reynolds (Rams), Michael Thomas/TreQuan Smith/Dan Arnold (Saints), Devin Funchess/D.J. Moore/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Doug Baldwin/Tyler Lockett/David Moore (Seahawks)
- Defense: Packers, Titans
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Tom Brady (Patriots), Deshaun Watson (Texans)
- Running Back: Aaron Jones (Packers), James Conner (Steelers), Sony Michel/James White (Patriots), Lamar Miller (Texans), Derrick Henry/Dion Lewis (Titans)
- Receivers: Davante Adams/Randall Cobb/Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Jimmy Graham (Packers), Antonio Brown/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Vance McDonald (Steelers), Julian Edelman/Josh Gordon/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), DeAndre Hopkins/Demaryius Thomas/Keke Coutee (Texans)
- Defense: None
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Andrew Luck (Colts), Carson Wentz (Eagles), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Marcus Mariota (Titans), Case Keenum (Broncos), Philip Rivers (Chargers)
- Running Back: Marlon Mack (Colts), Josh Adams (Eagles), Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Peyton Barber (Buccaneers), Phillip Lindsay (Broncos), Austin Ekeler (Chargers)
- Receivers: T.Y. Hilton/Dontrelle Inman/Eric Ebron (Colts), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/Golden Tate/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Mike Evans/Adam Humphries/Chris Godwin/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers), Corey Davis/Tajae Sharpe/Jonnu Smith (Titans), Emmanuel Sanders/Courtland Sutton/Matt LaCosse (Broncos), Keenan Allen/Tyrell Williams/Mike Williams (Chargers)
- Defense: Seahawks, Dolphins, Eagles, Broncos
Photos provided by Imagn Images
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Davante Adams
Josh Adams
Nelson Agholor
Keenan Allen
Dan Arnold
Peyton Barber
Tom Brady
Cameron Brate
Antonio Brown
Chris Carson
Randall Cobb
Tevin Coleman
James Conner
Brandin Cooks
Keke Coutee
Corey Davis
Eric Ebron
Austin Ekeler
Zach Ertz
Mike Evans
Chris Godwin
Jared Goff
Josh Gordon
Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
Derrick Henry
Tyreek Hill
T.Y. Hilton
Austin Hooper
DeAndre Hopkins
Adam Humphries
Kareem Hunt
Mark Ingram II
Aaron Jones
Julio Jones
Alvin Kamara
Case Keenum
Travis Kelce
Matt LaCosse
Phillip Lindsay
Tyler Lockett
Marlon Mack
Patrick Mahomes II
Marcus Mariota
Christian McCaffrey
Sony Michel
David Moore
DJ Moore
Cam Newton
Josh Reynolds
Calvin Ridley
Aaron Rodgers
Ben Roethlisberger
Matt Ryan
Emmanuel Sanders
Mohamed Sanu
Tajae Sharpe
Jonnu Smith
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Tre'Quan Smith
Courtland Sutton
Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Sammy Watkins
Deshaun Watson
Carson Wentz
James White
Mike Williams
Tyrell Williams
Russell Wilson
Jameis Winston
Robert Woods
