Photo: Imagn Images
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SUNDAY 11/18 @ 7 AM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA Rams | Kansas City | -3.5 | 33.25 | 63 | +++ | +++ | |
| New Orleans | Philadelphia | -7.5 | 32 | 56.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Kansas City | LA Rams | 3.5 | 29.75 | 63 | +++ | +++ | |
| NY Giants | Tampa Bay | -2.5 | 27.75 | 53 | ++ | ++ | |
| Carolina | Detroit | -4.5 | 27 | 49.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| LA Chargers | Denver | -7 | 26.75 | 46.5 | ++ | +++ | + |
| Atlanta | Dallas | -3 | 26.25 | 49.5 | + | + | |
| Indianapolis | Tennessee | -1.5 | 26.25 | 51 | + | + | |
| Seattle | Green Bay | -3 | 26 | 49 | + | + | |
| Pittsburgh | Jacksonville | -5 | 25.75 | 46.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Tampa Bay | NY Giants | 2.5 | 25.25 | 53 | + | + | |
| Baltimore | Cincinnati | -5.5 | 24.75 | 44 | + | + | |
| Tennessee | Indianapolis | 1.5 | 24.75 | 51 | + | + | |
| Philadelphia | New Orleans | 7.5 | 24.5 | 56.5 | ++ | + | |
| Chicago | Minnesota | -2.5 | 23.25 | 44 | |||
| Arizona | Oakland | -5.5 | 23.25 | 41 | + | ||
| Dallas | Atlanta | 3 | 23.25 | 49.5 | |||
| Green Bay | Seattle | 3 | 23 | 49 | |||
| Detroit | Carolina | 4.5 | 22.5 | 49.5 | |||
| Houston | Washington | -3 | 22.5 | 42 | + | ||
| Minnesota | Chicago | 2.5 | 20.75 | 44 | |||
| Jacksonville | Pittsburgh | 5 | 20.75 | 46.5 | |||
| Denver | LA Chargers | 7 | 19.75 | 46.5 | |||
| Washington | Houston | 3 | 19.5 | 42 | |||
| Cincinnati | Baltimore | 5.5 | 19.25 | 44 | |||
| Oakland | Arizona | 5.5 | 17.75 | 41 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Jared Goff (Rams), Drew Brees (Saints), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs)
- Running Back: Todd Gurley (Rams), Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), Melvin Gordon (Chargers)
- Receivers: Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Josh Reynolds (Rams), Michael Thomas/TreQuan Smith/Ben Watson (Saints), Sammy Watkins/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Cam Newton (Panthers), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Eli Manning (Giants), Carson Wentz (Eagles)
- Running Back: Christian McCaffrey (Panthers), James Conner (Steelers), Saquon Barkley (Giants),
- Receivers: Devin Funchess/D.J. Moore/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Keenan Allen/Tyrell Williams/Mike Williams (Chargers), Antonio Brown/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Vance McDonald (Steelers), Odell Beckham/Sterling Shepard/Evan Engram (Giants), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/Golden Tate/Zach Ertz (Eagles)
- Defense: None
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buccaneers), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Andrew Luck (Colts), Marcus Mariota (Titans)
- Running Back: Chris Carson/Rashaad Penny (Seahawks), Peyton Barber (Buccaneers), Alex Collins (Ravens), Tevin Coleman/Ito Smith (Falcons), Marlon Mack (Colts), Dion Lewis/Derrick Henry (Titans), Josh Adams/Corey Clement (Eagles)
- Receivers: Doug Baldwin/Tyler Lockett/David Moore (Seahawks), Mike Evans/DeSean Jackson/O.J. Howard (Buccaneers), Michael Crabtree/John Brown/Willie Snead/Mark Andrews (Ravens), Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Austin Hooper (Falcons), T.Y. Hilton/Ryan Grant/Eric Ebron/Jack Doyle (Colts), Corey Davis/Tajae Sharpe/Jonnu Smith (Titans)
- Defense: Cardinals, Texans, Chargers
Photos provided by Imagn Images
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Daily FF
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Josh Adams
Nelson Agholor
Keenan Allen
Mark Andrews
Peyton Barber
Saquon Barkley
Odell Beckham Jr
Antonio Brown
John Brown
Chris Carson
Corey Clement
Tevin Coleman
Alex Collins
James Conner
Brandin Cooks
Corey Davis
Jack Doyle
Eric Ebron
Evan Engram
Zach Ertz
Mike Evans
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Jared Goff
Melvin Gordon III
Derrick Henry
Tyreek Hill
T.Y. Hilton
Austin Hooper
O.J. Howard
Kareem Hunt
Mark Ingram II
DeSean Jackson
Lamar Jackson
Julio Jones
Alvin Kamara
Travis Kelce
Tyler Lockett
Marlon Mack
Patrick Mahomes II
Marcus Mariota
Christian McCaffrey
David Moore
DJ Moore
Cam Newton
Rashaad Penny
Josh Reynolds
Calvin Ridley
Ben Roethlisberger
Matt Ryan
Tajae Sharpe
Sterling Shepard
Ito Smith
Jonnu Smith
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Tre'Quan Smith
Willie Snead IV
Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas
Sammy Watkins
Carson Wentz
Mike Williams
Tyrell Williams
Russell Wilson
Robert Woods
