Photo: Imagn Images
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | Cleveland | -10 | 29.75 | 49.5 | +++ | +++ | + |
| Pittsburgh | Kansas City | -5.5 | 29.5 | 53.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| LA Rams | Arizona | -13.5 | 29.25 | 45 | +++ | +++ | ++ |
| San Francisco | Detroit | -6 | 27.25 | 48.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Washington | Indianapolis | -5.5 | 26.75 | 48 | ++ | ++ | + |
| Denver | Oakland | -6.5 | 26.25 | 46 | ++ | ++ | + |
| Atlanta | Carolina | -6 | 25.25 | 44.5 | + | + | + |
| LA Chargers | Buffalo | -7.5 | 25.25 | 43 | + | ++ | ++ |
| Green Bay | Minnesota | -2 | 24.25 | 46.5 | + | + | |
| Kansas City | Pittsburgh | 5.5 | 24 | 53.5 | ++ | + | |
| Philadelphia | Tampa Bay | -3 | 23.5 | 44 | |||
| New England | Jacksonville | -1 | 23.25 | 45.5 | |||
| NY Jets | Miami | -3 | 23.25 | 43.5 | |||
| Chicago | Seattle | -3.5 | 23.25 | 43 | + | ||
| Houston | Tennessee | -3 | 23 | 43 | + | ||
| Dallas | NY Giants | -3 | 22.75 | 42.5 | + | ||
| Cincinnati | Baltimore | -1 | 22.5 | 44 | |||
| Minnesota | Green Bay | 2 | 22.25 | 46.5 | |||
| Jacksonville | New England | 1 | 22.25 | 45.5 | |||
| Baltimore | Cincinnati | 1 | 21.5 | 44 | |||
| Detroit | San Francisco | 6 | 21.25 | 48.5 | |||
| Indianapolis | Washington | 5.5 | 21.25 | 48 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Philadelphia | 3 | 20.5 | 44 | |||
| Miami | NY Jets | 3 | 20.25 | 43.5 | |||
| Tennessee | Houston | 3 | 20 | 43 | |||
| Oakland | Denver | 6.5 | 19.75 | 46 | |||
| Cleveland | New Orleans | 10 | 19.75 | 49.5 | |||
| Seattle | Chicago | 3.5 | 19.75 | 43 | |||
| NY Giants | Dallas | 3 | 19.75 | 42.5 | |||
| Carolina | Atlanta | 6 | 19.25 | 44.5 | |||
| Buffalo | LA Chargers | 7.5 | 17.75 | 43 | |||
| Arizona | LA Rams | 13.5 | 15.75 | 45 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Jared Goff (Rams)
- Running Back: Alvin Kamara (Saints), James Conner (Steelers), Todd Gurley (Rams)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/Ted Ginn Jr/Ben Watson (Saints), Antonio Brown/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Vance McDonald (Steelers), Brandin Cooks/Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp (Rams)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), Alex Smith (Redskins), Case Keenum (Broncos), Patrick Mahomes II II (Chiefs)
- Running Back: Alfred Morris/Matt Breida (49ers), Adrian Peterson (Redskins), Royce Freeman/Phillip Lindsay (Broncos), Melvin Gordon (Chargers)
- Receivers: Dante Pettis/Pierre Garcon/Trent Taylor/George Kittle (49ers), Paul Richardson Jr/Josh Doctson/Jamison Crowder/Jordan Reed (Redskins), Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders/Courtland Sutton (Broncos), Sammy Watkins/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Defense: Rams, Chargers
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
- Running Back: Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Jamaal Williams (Packers), Kareem Hunt (Chiefs)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Keenan Allen/Tyrell Williams/Mike Williams/Antonio Gates (Chargers), Davante Adams/Randall Cobb/Geronimo Allison/Jimmy Graham (Packers)
- Defense: Falcons, Cowboys, Bears, Saints, Broncos, Texans
Photos provided by Imagn Images
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Davante Adams
Keenan Allen
Geronimo Allison
Matt Breida
Antonio Brown
Randall Cobb
Tevin Coleman
James Conner
Brandin Cooks
Jamison Crowder
Josh Doctson
Royce Freeman
Jimmy Garoppolo
Jared Goff
Melvin Gordon III
Jimmy Graham
Tyreek Hill
Austin Hooper
Kareem Hunt
Julio Jones
Alvin Kamara
Case Keenum
Travis Kelce
George Kittle
Cooper Kupp
Phillip Lindsay
Patrick Mahomes II
Adrian Peterson
Dante Pettis
Aaron Rodgers
Ben Roethlisberger
Matt Ryan
Emmanuel Sanders
Mohamed Sanu
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Courtland Sutton
Trent Taylor
Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas
Sammy Watkins
Jamaal Williams
Mike Williams
Tyrell Williams
Robert Woods
