Photo: Imagn Images
This is the third installment in the True Fantasy Points (TFP) series for 2018. To read the article on quarterbacks, click here. To read the article on running backs, click here. And if you want to learn more about the statistical methodology underlying the series, click here or here.
Today's article will identify two overvalued wide receivers and two undervalued wide receivers. One of this latter pair is the most undervalued player in fantasy drafts according to the combination of his TFP and Average Draft Position.
Below is a table showing David Dodds' projections, TFP, and their difference for 59 wide receivers who meet the following criteria:
- They're on the same team as they were last season.
- They're projected for at least 300 "opportunities," which is defined as rushing attempts plus routes run.
| Dodds' Stats | True Stats | Points | ||||||
| Wide Receiver | Team | ReYds | ReTDs | ReYds | ReTDs | Dodds | TFP | Diff |
| Stefon Diggs | MIN | 931 | 7 | 864 | 5 | 137.0 | 119.8 | +17.2 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | 1015 | 7 | 918 | 6 | 156.0 | 139.1 | +16.9 |
| Antonio Brown | PIT | 1350 | 10 | 1329 | 8 | 195.0 | 179.2 | +15.8 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 1321 | 11 | 1337 | 8 | 195.1 | 182.3 | +12.8 |
| Julio Jones | ATL | 1336 | 7 | 1273 | 6 | 174.6 | 164.2 | +10.4 |
| Julian Edelman | NE | 655 | 5 | 625 | 3 | 94.0 | 84.4 | +9.6 |
| Marquise Goodwin | SF | 961 | 6 | 969 | 4 | 134.5 | 125.3 | +9.2 |
| Adam Thielen | MIN | 1098 | 6 | 1079 | 5 | 147.4 | 138.5 | +8.9 |
| T.Y. Hilton | IND | 1140 | 8 | 1155 | 6 | 159.6 | 150.8 | +8.8 |
| Mike Williams | LAC | 549 | 4 | 519 | 3 | 78.9 | 70.9 | +8.0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | 911 | 7 | 900 | 6 | 132.4 | 124.6 | +7.8 |
| Golden Tate | DET | 862 | 6 | 883 | 4 | 122.1 | 116.0 | +6.1 |
| Ted Ginn Jr | NO | 562 | 4 | 552 | 3 | 81.8 | 76.1 | +5.7 |
| Corey Davis | TEN | 756 | 5 | 773 | 4 | 107.4 | 101.8 | +5.6 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | BUF | 759 | 5 | 739 | 4 | 105.9 | 100.3 | +5.6 |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | 820 | 5 | 796 | 5 | 112.6 | 107.2 | +5.4 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | 1218 | 8 | 1222 | 7 | 168.2 | 163.2 | +5.0 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | 595 | 3 | 578 | 3 | 79.3 | 74.5 | +4.8 |
| Michael Thomas | NO | 1125 | 7 | 1116 | 6 | 154.9 | 150.1 | +4.8 |
| Dede Westbrook | JAX | 611 | 5 | 622 | 4 | 88.1 | 83.6 | +4.5 |
| Tyrell Williams | LAC | 684 | 5 | 685 | 4 | 97.8 | 94.5 | +3.3 |
| Jamison Crowder | WAS | 854 | 5 | 837 | 5 | 118.3 | 115.0 | +3.3 |
| DeVante Parker | MIA | 647 | 4 | 673 | 3 | 91.1 | 87.9 | +3.2 |
| Davante Adams | GB | 1021 | 8 | 990 | 8 | 151.9 | Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags
Forecast
Projections
Stats
Davante Adams
Nelson Agholor
Keenan Allen
Geronimo Allison
Robbie Chosen
Odell Beckham Jr
Antonio Brown
Randall Cobb
Keelan Cole Sr.
Amari Cooper
Jamison Crowder
Corey Davis
Stefon Diggs
Josh Doctson
Mike Evans
Will Fuller V
Chris Godwin
Kenny Golladay
Marquise Goodwin
Josh Gordon
A.J. Green
Tyreek Hill
T.Y. Hilton
Chris Hogan
DeAndre Hopkins
DeSean Jackson
Julio Jones
Marvin Jones Jr
Zay Jones
Cooper Kupp
Tyler Lockett
DeVante Parker
John Ross
Emmanuel Sanders
Mohamed Sanu
Sterling Shepard
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Kenny Stills
Ryan Tannehill
Adam Thielen
Michael Thomas
Dede Westbrook
Mike Williams
Tyrell Williams
Robert Woods
Featured Articles
just now
| |
