Reader's Guide
As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:
- All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing only a limited number of teams.
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings in the matchup graphics are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
- Playcalling Preferences
- Follow the Targets
- Looks Can Be Deceiving
- How Will They Score?
- Tempo, Tempo, Tempo
Playcalling Preferences
In this section, we'll look at how teams call plays. Because game script and red zone can skew pass-to-run ratios, the percentages below only show plays called when the game is within seven points in either direction and plays run between the 20s.
This week, we are focusing on plays call in the last five weeks only.
Passing
| Offensive Team | Pass% | Defensive Team | Pass% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 69.0% | Dallas Cowboys | 56.5% |
| New York Giants | 67.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 61.4% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 66.4% | Los Angeles Rams | 53.5% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 65.5% | Jacksonville Jaguars | 51.9% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 65.4% | New Orleans Saints | 59.3% |
| Green Bay Packers | 65.1% | Seattle Seahawks | 61.6% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 64.9% | Baltimore Ravens | 55.9% |
Commentary
- The Giants pass on 67.0% of their neutral script plays, the second highest percentage in the NFL.
- The Giants gain 76.8% of their total yardage via the pass, the third-highest percentage in the NFL.
- Tampa Bay allows 73.0% of its total yardage via the pass, the fifth-highest percentage in the NFL.
- Tampa Bay allows 7.7 net yards per attempt, third-most in the NFL.
- Tampa Bay allows 14.9 receptions per game to wide receivers, third-most in the NFL.
- The Giants gain 70.3% of their passing yardage via wide receivers, the ninth-highest percentage in the NFL.
- Tampa Bay allows 57.5% of its total yardage to wide receivers, the fifth-lowest percentage in the NFL.
- The Giants total 30.6% of their receptions via running backs, the fifth-highest percentage in the NFL.
- Tampa Bay allows 20.5% of its total receptions to running backs, the seventh-lowest percentage in the NFL.
- Philadelphia passes on 65.4% of its neutral script plays, the fifth-highest percentage in the NFL.
- New Orleans allows 78.7% of its total yardage via the pass, the highest percentage in the NFL.
- Philadelphia gains 42.9% of its passing yardage via tight ends, the highest percentage in the NFL.
- New Orleans allows 13.5% of its passing yardage to tight ends, the third-lowest percentage in the NFL.
Action Items
It's a strange week in this section because the offenses that like to pass that are playing defenses who often face the pass don't match up well with how they gain and allow yardage via the pass. What seems like it should be a big week for Odell Beckham and/or Saquon Barkley doesn't align that well with how Tampa Bay allows production. The same goes for Zach Ertz of Philadelphia, facing a New Orleans team that is generous to everyone except tight ends.
These players are still no-brainer starters in season-long leagues, but they're probably more GPP plays than safe cash game plays in DFS.
Rushing
| Offensive Team | Rush% | Defensive Team | Rush% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 58.8% | Green Bay Packers | 44.7% |
| Houston Texans | 54.3% | Washington Redskins | 36.2% |
| Detroit Lions | 48.4% | Carolina Panthers | 42.5% |
| New Orleans Saints | 47.5% | Philadelphia Eagles | 35.8% |
| Washington Redskins | 46.5% | Houston Texans | 37.2% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 46.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 34.9% |
Commentary and Action Items
The most run-heavy teams are facing mostly pass-heavy defenses. Remember, though, that these are neutral script percentages. Game script is key to assessing fantasy value. Even though these offenses would prefer to run, it doesn't mean they'll have the chance. Jacksonville, for instance, is a six-point underdog to Pittsburgh. If you believe the Steelers will control the game, Blake Bortles will likely see increased volume. And he'll see it against a Pittsburgh defense that faces passes on 65.1% of its neutral script plays, the third-highest percentage in the NFL.
Follow the Targets
In this section, we'll examine how the worst passing defenses in the NFL allow their production. The teams listed here are those playing this week who have seen the highest percentage of neutral-script passing plays called against them.
| RBs | WRs | TEs | ||||||||||
| Team | Tgt% | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt% | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt% | YdsRk | TDs | |||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 15.3% | 2 | 4 | 60.9% | 21 | 11 | 23.8% | 28 | 4 | |||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 22.7% | 27 | 1 | 62.8% | 29 | 9 | 14.5% | 3 | 2 | |||
| Washington Redskins | 24.9% | 23 | 2 | 54.7% | 30 | 10 | 20.4% | 10 | 3 | |||
| Houston Texans | 22.0% | 10 | 5 | 59.7% | 11 | 6 | 18.2% | 19 | 4 | |||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 20.7% | 28 | 5 | 57.7% | 31 | 11 | 21.6% | 30 | 5 | |||
| New York Giants | 20.5% | 13 | 5 | 56.4% | 10 | 6 | 23.2% | 18 | 1 | |||
| Tennessee Titans | 19.2% | 3 | 0 | 63.4% | 26 | 11 | 17.5% | 2 | 0 | |||
| Atlanta Falcons | 30.0% | 32 | 5 | 51.8% | 22 | 13 | 18.2% | 14 | 3 | |||
Commentary
- New Orleans has gained 616 receiving yards by running backs, third-most in the NFL.
- Philadelphia allows 56.0 receiving yards per game to running backs, sixth-most in the NFL.
- Houston gains 77.0% of its passing yardage via wide receivers, the fourth-highest percentage in the NFL.
- Washington allows 67.2% of its passing yardage to wide receivers, the seventh-highest percentage in the NFL.
- Atlanta allows 30.0% of its targets to running backs, the highest percentage in the NFL.
- Atlanta allows 80.9 receiving yards per game to running backs, most in the NFL.
- Atlanta allows 20.8 receiving fantasy points per game to running backs, most in the NFL.
- Since Amari Cooper joined Dallas, his 26% target share leads the team. Ezekiel Elliott's 18% share is second on the team. Elliott's target share is sixth among all running backs in that time frame.
Action Items
The matchup says it's more of an Alvin Kamara week than a Mark Ingram week, but both are in play in DFS due to Ingram's lower salary. DeAndre Hopkins is in a great spot, given how Houston gains yardage and how Washington allows it. Elliott has overall RB1 potential this week. His DFS salary may be prohibitive compared to other elite running back options around him. So be sure to check Steve Buzzard's Percent Rostered projections throughout the week.
Looks Can Be Deceiving
Viewing raw "defense vs. position" (DvP) stats can be misleading, as it makes no consideration for the strength
