#Trendspotting: Week 6 - Footballguys

Photo: Imagn Images

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. At #Trendspotting HQ, we received some feedback that the green vs. red text was indecipherable for red-green colorblind folks. So going forward, blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. And red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings in the matchup graphics are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Follow the Targets
• Going Deep
• The Weakest Links
• How Will They Score?
• Playcalling Preferences
• New England (vs. Kansas City)
• Atlanta (vs. Tampa Bay)
• Cincinnati (vs. Pittsburgh)

Follow the Targets

In this section, we'll examine how the worst passing defenses in the NFL allow their production.

Commentary

• Tampa Bay allows 103.8 yards per game to tight ends, most in the NFL.
• Tampa Bay allows 27.9% of its passing yardage to tight ends, the third-highest ratio in the NFL.
• Pittsburgh allows 84.8 yards per game to tight ends, third-most in the NFL.
• Pittsburgh allows 27.9% of its targets to tight ends, the highest ratio in the NFL.
• C.J. Uzomah played 92% of Cincinnati's snaps in Week 5.
• Pittsburgh allows 216.2 yards per game to wide receivers, second-most in the NFL.
• Pittsburgh allows a 9.8-yard average depth-of-target (aDOT), highest in the NFL.
• John Ross leads Cincinnati with a 13.3-yard aDOT, but he only has 15 targets on the year and is still nursing an injury. Not far behind him is A.J. Green, with a 12.3-yard aDOT.
• Pittsburgh has allowed more than two receptions to zero running backs this season.
• Pittsburgh allows 13.4% of its targets to running backs, the lowest ratio in the NFL.

Action Items

Don't forget about Austin Hooper, as Tampa Bay is yielding huge numbers to tight ends. Atlanta showed a willingness last week to use Hooper if the opposing defense puts more emphasis the wide receivers. Hooper is a low-end TE1 in season-long leagues but just a GPP play in DFS due to his increased price. Uzomah is on the streaming radar in season-long leagues.

Green is in prime position to have a big game. His skills align far better with Pittsburgh's weaknesses than Tyler Boyd's do. And Cincinnati's running backs shouldn't be expected to contribute as much as usual to the passing attack.

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Going Deep

This week, we're replacing "Funnel Watch" with a new section.

The "Funnel Watch" charts weren't generating any revolutionary actionable advice for this week, and now that we have at least four games of data for each team, this section feels appropriate to introduce. The goal here is to unearth some DFS GPP plays and some "what-the-heck flex" types for season-long leagues by examining which offenses like to throw deep most often and which defenses see the most deep passes attempted against them. We'll look at the five teams who throw deep the most and the five teams who see the most deep passes against them.

Offenses

Commentary

• Kansas City attempts 8.4 deep passes per game, tied for the third-most in the NFL.
• New England faces 8.2 deep pass attempts per game, third-most in the NFL.
• Cleveland attempts a deep pass on 24.1% of its pass attempts, the third-highest ratio in the NFL.
• The Chargers face a deep pass on 19.3% of passes attempted against them, the ninth-highest ratio in the NFL.
• Cleveland's deep balls by quarterback: Tyrod Taylor - 23; Baker Mayfield - 23. It's as much a function of play-calling as it is quarterback.
• Atlanta faces a deep pass on 14.6% of passes attempted against them, the sixth-lowest ratio in the NFL.

Defenses