#Trendspotting: Week 5 - Footballguys

Photo: USA Today Sports

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Green text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings in the matchup graphics are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Follow the Targets
• Funnel Watch
• The Weakest Links
• How Will They Score?
• Playcalling Preferences
• Pittsburgh (vs. Atlanta)
• Atlanta (at Pittsburgh)
• Minnesota (at Philadelphia)

Follow the Targets

In this section, we'll look at the worst passing defenses and dissect how they allow their fantasy production.

This section appears every week, so let's mesh the commentary and actions together to save you, dear reader, some time.

Commentary + Action Items

• Kansas City is poor against the pass, but they don't allow much production to wide receivers. Don't forget about Austin Seferian-Jenkins. In DFS, you can probably do better, but in season-long formats, where tight end is a wasteland, he is a decent desperation steamer.
• Pittsburgh's defense is far from the Steel Curtain. But don't expect Atlanta's running backs to do too much in the passing game. Pittsburgh allows the fourth-most passing yards but the fewest to running backs. Pittsburgh allows 5.8% of its passing yardage to running backs, the lowest ratio in the NFL.
• On the other side, however, Atlanta allows the third-most receiving yards per game to running backs. More on this later.

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Funnel Watch

A "funnel" defense is one with a stout run defense but a suspect (or worse) pass defense. These units "funnel" production to the exterior and deep parts of the field (places where passing games focus) and away from the short middle (where the running game typically occurs).

Commentary

• Tampa Bay is off this week, but let’s not forget about them next week. This is the quintessential funnel defense to target.
• New Orleans allows 79.6% of its total yardage via the pass, the third-highest ratio in the NFL. But Washington only gains 64.1% of its total yardage via the pass, the seventh-lowest ratio.
• There are plenty of games with high over/unders on the week, but the sneakiest potential shootout is Minnesota at Philadelphia. The Eagles allow 81.0% of their total yardage via the pass, the highest ratio in the NFL, while the Vikings gain 83.9% of their total yardage via the pass, tied for the highest ratio in the NFL.
• Meanwhile, the Minnesota defense allows 72.7% of its total yardage via the pass, the seventh-highest ratio in the NFL. Philadelphia offense is middling in terms of its pass-to-rush yardage gained, but that is driven by two games of Nick Foles at the helm and plenty of injuries to offensive weapons.

Action Items

• All of Minnesota’s pass-catching weapons are in play, especially their wide receiver duo considering the concentration of targets they see.

Reverse Funnels

Sometimes, the funnel effect can happen in reverse, where a team is very good against the pass but poor against the run.