Photo: Imagn Images
Reader's Guide
As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Green text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings in the matchup graphics are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
- Follow the Targets
- Funnel Watch
- The Weakest Links
- How Will They Score?
- Playcalling Preferences
- L.A. Chargers (vs. San Francisco)
- Atlanta (vs. Cincinnati)
- New Orleans (at N.Y. Giants)
- Denver (vs. Kansas City)
Follow the Targets
In this section, we'll look at the worst passing defenses and dissect how they allow their fantasy production.
This week, we're looking at the eight teams that allow the highest net yards per passing attempt, listed from most to least.
| RBs | WRs | TEs | ||||||||||
| Team | Tgt% | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt% | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt% | YdsRk | TDs | |||
| New Orleans Saints | 12.0% | 5 | 1 | 67.4% | 32 | 9 | 20.7% | 9 | 0 | |||
| Oakland Raiders | 15.2% | 6 | 1 | 70.7% | 30 | 5 | 14.1% | 6 | 0 | |||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 20.9% | 28 | 1 | 55.0% | 29 | 5 | 24.0% | 32 | 1 | |||
| Los Angeles Chargers | 23.4% | 26 | 1 | 57.4% | 28 | 7 | 19.1% | 4 | 0 | |||
| Arizona Cardinals | 21.9% | 29 | 1 | 62.5% | 15 | 0 | 15.6% | 13 | 2 | |||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 23.6% | 32 | 2 | 60.0% | 16 | 5 | 16.4% | 31 | 1 | |||
| Houston Texans | 27.3% | 13 | 1 | 56.8% | 9 | 3 | 15.9% | 22 | 2 | |||
| Green Bay Packers | 16.7% | 9 | 0 | 57.8% | 22 | 6 | 25.5% | 19 | 0 | |||
Commentary
- New Orleans allows 67.4% of its targets to wide receivers, the third-highest ratio in the NFL.
- New Orleans allows 281 yards per game to wide receivers, most in the NFL (the next-highest amount is 216.3).
- The Giants will be without Evan Engram this week, which should move some of their targets to wide receivers.
- The Chargers allow 61.7 receiving yards per game to running backs, seventh-most in the NFL.
- The Chargers allow 194.3 yards per game to wide receivers, fifth-most in the NFL.
- The Chargers allow 29.0 yards per game to tight ends, fourth-fewest in the NFL.
- Houston is allowing 28.0% of its total receiving yardage to tight ends, the fifth-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Indianapolis is gaining 33.7% of its passing yardage via its tight ends, the fourth-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Indianapolis targets its tight ends on 29.6% of its passing attempts, the third-highest ratio in the NFL.
Action Items
- With Jimmy Garoppolo out in San Francisco, it's easy to assume that C.J. Beathard may lean on his running backs and tight ends due to those being higher-probability throws. He did that last season with Carlos Hyde. Fade the San Francisco receivers until further notice.
Carlos Hyde with CJ Beathard last year: 8.3 targets per game.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) September 24, 2018
Carlos Hyde without CJ Beathard: 3.8 targets per game.
- Matt Breida is in play as a season-long RB2 or a GPP tournament play, but George Kittle is a wait-and-see this week due to L.A.'s limited production allowed to tight ends thus far.
- Monitor Jack Doyle's health. If Doyle can play, he's worth a look. If not, don't be afraid to go back to Eric Ebron, despite his disappointing-as-the-chalk performance in Week 3.
Funnel Watch
A "funnel" defense is one with a stout run defense but a suspect (or worse) pass defense. These units "funnel" production to the exterior and deep parts of the field (places where passing games focus) and away from the short middle (where the running game typically occurs).
| Team | PaYd/Gm | RuYd/Gm | NYd/Att | Yd/Rush | %PassYd | %RushYd |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 362.7 | 70.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| New Orleans Saints | 336.7 | 84.3 | 10.2 | 3.0 | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| Denver Broncos | 262.7 | 77.7 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 77.2% | 22.8% |
| Miami Dolphins | 288.3 | 89.0 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 76.4% | 23.6% |
Commentary
- Tampa Bay is allowing 83.7% of its total yardage via the pass, the highest ratio in the NFL.
- Tampa Bay is allowing 362.7 passing yards per game, tied for the most in the NFL.
- The New York Giants are gaining 72.5% of their total yardage via the pass, the 12th-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Denver is allowing 77.2% of its total yardage via the pass, the fifth-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Kansas City is gaining 74.1% of its total yardage via the pass, the 11th-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Kansas City is scoring 66.1% of its total points via passing touchdowns, the second-highest ratio in the NFL.
Action Items
- It's not as though you had to be told to start Patrick Mahomes II II and his dynamic bunch of playmakers. But it is worth noting here that Denver isn't as fearsome against the pass as they have been in recent years.
- Denver's fantasy points against numbers don't immediately tell us which Chiefs playmaker to use. But digging deeper, Denver has allowed 78.7 yards per game to tight ends, sixth-most in the NFL, which is good news for Travis Kelce.
Reverse Funnels
Sometimes, the funnel effect can happen in reverse, where a team is very good against the pass but poor against the run.
| Team | PaYd/Gm | RuYd/Gm | NYd/Att | Yd/Rush | %PassYd | %RushYd |
| Detroit Lions | 152.0 | 149.3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 215.3 | 132.7 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 171.0 | 115.3 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 169.3 | 103.7 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 62.0% | 38.0% |
Commentary
- Detroit allows 49.6% of
Photos provided by Imagn ImagesTags Daily FF DraftKings FanDuel Stats Keenan Allen C.J. Beathard Matt Breida John Brown Chris Carson James Conner Jack Doyle Eric Ebron Ezekiel Elliott Evan Engram Ryan Fitzpatrick Jimmy Garoppolo Melvin Gordon III Austin Hooper Jordan Howard Carlos Hyde David Johnson Julio Jones Alvin Kamara Case Keenum Travis Kelce George Kittle Marshon Lattimore Patrick Mahomes II Christian McCaffrey Joe Mixon Calvin Ridley Josh Rosen Emmanuel Sanders Sterling Shepard Tyrod Taylor P.J. Williams
