YOU GUYS HAVE A TON OF ARTICLES.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
1. Week 17 Roundtable's Lessons Learned
The year's end is naturally a time for reflection. We had our panelists for Week 17's Roundtable do that about the 2018 fantasy season.
Matt Waldman: What have you learned this year about football — be it something strategic, technical, analytical, or tangential to fantasy football or the NFL — that you believe will make you a better fantasy writer in the future?
Justin Howe: That nagging and long-term injuries can drain upside, rob seasons, and turn good draft value bad. Missed games are only the tip of the iceberg, and missed practices and lost conditioning cause them to pile up.
Entering the season, I was exceptionally bullish on Dalvin Cook and Doug Baldwin, among others. I tried to factor their injuries in, reasoning that their best-case scenarios over 14-15 games were still pretty excellent. In general, that panned out — Cook and Baldwin have both produced quite well once fully over the injury hump.But along the way, they muddled through quite a bit of negativity. Cook missed the offseason program, then spent the first half of the year battling cramps and hamstring woes as he rounded into game shape. Baldwin let out preseason hints that his knee simply wasn't right, then came out with an MCL tear just after Week 1.
Had I considered the peripheral factors to these injuries, I could've prepared better for their downsides and scooped an extra round of value from each, on the aggregate. (Over 135 DRAFTs, I wound up with about 50 combined shares of the two.)
I'm not sure how actionable this realization is. Different players have different bodies, and Dalvin Cook's timetable has no direct bearing on the next guy's. But whiffing so badly on these two values has certainly jolted me back into following the (medical) experts' expectations. Jene Bramel's Monday injury rounds are not to be taken for granted.B.J. VanderWoude: This year I took it upon myself to learn more about the offenses for the two teams I am tasked with recapping each week: the Chiefs and the Packers. I am as spoiled as a recapper gets, as I get to watch Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes II II make ridiculously hard throws look easy, routinely, while throwing to All-Pro studs like Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. Add the breakout season of Aaron Jones, as well as Kareem Hunt’s rise, and subsequent fall from stardom, and it was about as much fun as I’ve ever had to research something I was passionate about.
The Chiefs use misdirection, motion, and play-action better than any team I’ve covered in depth. It looks like window dressing while you are watching live and in full speed, but when you slow it down and key in on how the defense reacts, you start to see the “game within the game”. The Chiefs do an excellent job of spreading out opposing defenses and then attacking the weak points, and when you have the speed and athleticism of the Chiefs skill position players, that is a battle opposing defenses are not going to win.
The Packers were on the opposite side of the spectrum. In fact, after watching the Chiefs offense so closely, it began to dawn on me that the Packers offense was successful not because of their scheme, but rather in spite of it. They seldom used presnap motion to clear out one side of the field while the defense was in man coverage, and despite having an athletic quarterback who can throw on the run as well as Rodgers can, he was rarely used in a way that took advantage of his mobility.We now know that there had been some acrimony with respect to how Rodgers was running the offense, often in defiance of the Packers play callers, and this was apparent in Rodgers having one of his worst statistical seasons since becoming the Packers starter.
Waldman: I spent a lot of time on the Chiefs as well, B.J. and I enjoyed not only the shifts they use but also the way they used a variety of formation types to spread or compressed the field. I also appreciated that they often used trickery to set up additional trickery.
Mark Wimer: One lesson that I had learned in previous years was from Bob Harris - "Don't draft last year's fantasy studs, look for and draft this year's fantasy studs!" This has been a guiding principle for me over the last 15 years or so (ever since I heard that gold nugget from Harris).
I have been re-learning this lesson in a new way during 2018-2019, but on a more granular level by paying close attention to Steve Buzzard's excellent analysis of the percentage owned in Daily Fantasy Sports contests. While this mostly applies to Daily Fantasy Sports contests, the time and work I've put in on that aspect of fantasy sports have helped me to "churn" up better, and cheaper, short-term free agent prospects when I suffer a short-term injury or suspension to a starter on my season-long fantasy teams.It's allowed me to be more efficient with my free agent $ because I'm bidding for guys who aren't the crowds' "fantasy darling of the week". After all, I am going for a guy who may only be started 1-2 weeks for my season-long squad before being jettisoned (WR3 or Flex-type players), so why pay top dollar for that week's "darling" free agent?
Jason Wood: This may sound like blasphemy, and it's not (yet) tested as it's something I'm going to look at during the offseason, but my hot take from this season is that we've taken advanced metrics too far. While I'm sure they're useful for bettors or DFS enthusiasts, I believe we've now drilled so far down into the weeds in slicing and dicing player statistics, matchup data, and related metrics that it's no longer helpful in winning your leagues. The NFL has become a war of attrition, and while it's nice to say "Player X has a better matchup than Player Y" ultimately most teams are facing desperate options in a few lineup spots almost every week once the bye week gauntlet combines with injuries.
In a corollary, using weekly strength-of-schedule for defensive matchups is largely a fool's errand. It provides ample stuff to talk about, but with the league's enforcement of pass interference, roughing the passer, low hits, etc...strongly favoring offensive production, there aren't many times when betting against a superior player because of a defensive matchup pays off. To put it another way, I don't see anything in the data (yet) to say it pays off more than a coin toss would.Will Grant: Not sure if it will make me a better writer, but I definitely have re-discovered my love of the subtle parts of the game through the eyes of my son. He's 22 now and until recently, has never really been interested in football. However, this year he's become more engaged, watching games, asking questions, genuinely interested in learning about things.
In discussing things with him, and pointing out how plays develop, I'm bringing to mind many of the things that I often took for granted — how a quarterback works through his progressions or locks onto one guy before making a throw. How a running back who is patient can follow his blockers, find the hole and then explode through it vs a guy who just runs full tilt into the pile because that's where the play was designed to go. Seeing how receivers and defensive backs use their body to shield their opponent in an attempt to make a play on the ball.
And my absolute favorite thing — how a well designed and executed set of plays can be literally unstoppable. I find my self pausing the game and commenting — how could you possibly defend against that pass? Trying to teach my son just how tactical and precise any particular play can be. It's reminded me of how awesome football can be. In a lot of ways, I'm the kid again. That's been the best part of this season for me.Waldman: That's awesome, Will. My lesson is one that I've been learning over the course of 6-7 years in a specific dynasty league where I blew up the guts of the squad way too early — stockpile talent.
All too often, we try to address every need with our dynasty rosters during a draft or on the waiver wire. It often leads to us making investments in players we don't believe in because they are "the next-best" option on our lists.
The root lesson is what many successful organizations do when developing employees: maximize their strengths to overcome their weaknesses. Since applying that maxim to a championship dynasty squad, I am seeing the benefits.
I already have four starting receivers in a start-three league but the player I like the most on the board is another receiver? I'm taking him. I already have three quality starting quarterbacks but the quarterback I gave the best grade in at least five years is available for a first-round pick? I'm taking him.
So what if I don't have a good depth chart of running backs. There weren't any to be had where I was picking. If I hit on the depth I took at receiver and/or quarterback, I can give a known commodity for a known commodity in return at the position of need.
And if I stockpile at a position successfully that creates a scenario where I have four of the top 12 quarterbacks in the league and that remains the case for the near future, I'll have more power to dictate terms.
This worked out for me this year with a rebuild that won the points title and the championship in a dynasty IDP league with 43-man rosters. I'm beginning to think it might be fun to experiment with stockpiling a position in specific re-draft formats to see what I might be able to craft from it.
Phil Alexander: I've always believed the best players can overcome poor coaching schemes and a lack of surrounding talent, except at the margins. This season, David Johnson served as a strong reminder of exactly what defines those margins.
I didn't have Johnson ranked ahead of Todd Gurley but when the rubber met the road, and I drew the first pick in my most important league, it was Johnson's sticker I slapped on the draft board. This isn't the place to rehash why I thought it was the right decision at the time, but needless to say, the result was a lesson learned the hard way.
Maybe Johnson could have overcome what was projected to be (and went on to become) one of the worst offensive lines in the league. He also could have survived the departure of a quarterback — Carson Palmer — who can challenge defenses downfield. There was even a chance he might have been fine without the head coach who consistently put him in the best possible positions to succeed (Bruce Arians).
But assuming Johnson would shrug off all three dilemmas and replicate his 2016 numbers was more than wishful thinking. It was dumb. The conditions weren't there for an overall RB1 season from Johnson and it was obvious in retrospect no matter what I thought of the player. Moving forward, Johnson's 2018 will serve as a reminder to put personal biases aside, consider each player's outlook more objectively, and not ignore piles of logical, compelling evidence that don't fit the narrative I've crafted in my mind.
Matt's Thoughts: One of the underlying themes of this conversation is that there will always be some amount of risk you have to take if you want to build a difference-making squad. The desire is to find risks that are the most reasonable to take regardless of the result. Finding the "right risks" should generate consistency whereas finding the "right answer" can lead one to follow trends and have greater variance with results.
2. WEEK 17 Sleepers
Still playing in Week 17? Sigmund Bloom has you covered when it comes to under-the-radar plays. Here are the ones I like and with additional thoughts for each Bloom entry.
Derek Carr (at Kansas City) - The Raiders offense has come alive in December, sparked by a close loss to the Chiefs in Week 13. Carr threw for 285 yards and three scores against Kansas City, part of a five-week streak of quarterbacks throwing for at least two scores against them coming into this week. Carr has also been riffing well with a healthier Jordy Nelson lately, which should help him in the effort to keep up with Patrick Mahomes II II.
Matt's Thoughts: Carr has been one of the hottest fantasy quarterbacks in December. Although pressure can be an issue for Carr and the offensive line — especially when the Chiefs sport an excellent combo of pass rushers — Jared Cook's rebounding and Jalen Richard's explosiveness as a check-down option mitigate the fearsomeness of the Kansas City front.
Royce Freeman (vs Los Angeles Chargers) - Phillip Lindsay will be out with a broken wrist, so Freeman will get a full audition in Week 17. The Chargers have given up three touchdowns to opposing running backs in three of the last five games, including the first matchup against the Broncos in Week 11. There is also the possibility that the Chiefs jump out to a big enough lead against the Raiders to give the Chargers the green light to rest their starters and give Freeman an extended opportunity against a defense of mostly backups.
Matt's Thoughts: Freeman was one of the better yards-after-contact backs in the league this year when not viewing the stat through the lens of minimum touches. If not for Lindsay's big-play ability that earned him the lead role, Freeman could have easily been an impact rookie this year. He'll show that on Sunday.
Brian Hill (at Tampa Bay) - Hill relieved Tevin Coleman after Coleman suffered a groin injury last week and posted over 100 rushing yards on only eight carries. He is in line to get a big opportunity this week with Coleman unlikely to go and the Bucs surrendering big numbers to opposing backs for the entire second half of the season. Four backs have had 100-yard games against them in the last six games, and five different running backs have scored against them during that span.
Matt's Thoughts: Hill returns to Atlanta after the Falcons drafted and cut him in 2017 and he spent much of that year with the Bengals before Cincinnati cut him and Atlanta reclaimed him. Last week, Hill started slow — missing bounce-out opportunities early in the game. However, he found those opportunities later in the game and three of his eight carries put him over 100 yards last week. He's a good running back who hasn't really played to his capabilities in limited time during his first two seasons in the NFL. Some backs need to get into a rhythm before they play to their ability and sometimes getting into a rhythm means working through mistakes. That's not something that NFL teams are usually patient with but Hill's opportunity last week came by necessity and the Falcons were forced to be patient. We'll see if he can get off to a faster start this weekend.
Jalen Richard (at Kansas City) - Richard has been one of the most explosive backs in the league this year on a per touch basis, and he’s facing a defense that he lit up for 126 yards on nine touches back in Week 13. He could also be a bigger part of the offense this week if the Raiders fall behind at Arrowhead Stadium. Richard converted on a goal to go carry last week and could get more looks near the goal line this week.
Matt's Thoughts: I've shared this thought a few times in print and on social media — if the Raiders let Richard go and James White is no longer a Patriot, Bill Belichick better be calling because Richard is a poor man's White in name but not far behind (if at all) in game.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jake Kumerow (vs Detroit) - The Packers pass offense came alive last week against the Jets and they should have another strong day catching passes from a rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers against the Lions. Davante Adams is banged up and may see a lot of Darius Slay and Equanimeous St. Brown is in concussion protocol. The highest value targets based on matchup should go to Kumerow and Valdes-Scantling, who are both coming off of strong games (MVS 5-75, Kumerow 3-68-1)
Matt's Thoughts: I believed Valdes-Scantling was the best long-term bet of the three big receivers the Packers drafted and he's making a nice impression earlier than expected. Kumerow has been an intriguing option for years with the Bengals but it seems the Bengals never gave him the opportunity to prove his worth. Both can win deep and after the catch.
DeAndre Carter (vs Jacksonville) - With Demaryius Thomas out for the year and Keke Coutee a game-time decision at best, Carter is in line to be the #2 receiver for Deshaun Watson in a game to lock up the division title. Jalen Ramsey is likely to give DeAndre Hopkins all he can handle and Carter is coming off of a week where he caught six of seven targets for 61 yards - a week after he had a 50-yard reception at a key juncture to help the Texans overcome the Jets in Week 15.
Matt's Thoughts: Carter is a perfect replacement for what the Texans hoped to get from Keke Coutee, who hasn't been healthy since injuring his hamstring in August. I hope the Texans keep Carter because he gives the Texans continuity if Coutee or Will Fuller V get hurt again next year.
Mark Andrews (vs Cleveland) - If his long touchdown against the Chargers wasn’t enough to get Week 17 streamers on Andrews this week, the Browns recent track record against tight ends should be. Tight ends have scored in four of the last six weeks now, and in the two weeks a tight end didn’t score, CJ Uzomah went for 6-39 and Ian Thomas went for 9-77. Ravens tight ends also caught five passes in the first matchup with Cleveland.
Matt's Thoughts: Andrews may not be the athlete that Maxx Williams and Hayden Hurst are but he's a savvier receiver and has the connection with Lamar Jackson that the other two lack. Considering how well Jackson and the Ravens scheme freezes edge defenders within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, Andrews should earn 3-4 targets where there's good separation from the defense.
3. Rent-a-Quarterback
Ryan Hester reflected on his performance this year when it came to his weekly recommendations of quarterbacks with starter performances in them despite lacking year-long fantasy starter production.
Let's see how we did this season. In the graph below, the blue line represents the average weekly finish of our top quarterback picks each week. These do not include those in the "Deep Leagues Only" section. The red bars (charted on the secondary axis at right) represent the average fantasy points scored by those selections.
The blue line is the more important measure, as raw points can be misleading. For example, in Week 5, our picks averaged 20.6 fantasy points and finished as QB18 on average. In Week 15, however, the picks scored an average of 17.0 fantasy points and finished as QB13. How we score relative to our competition in that week is more important to fantasy success than measuring fantasy points across the season.
Photos provided by Imagn Images
