Late-round quarterback drafter? Had an injury to your starter? In need of a bye-week replacement? This is the place to find your weekly quarterback choices. In this article, which is new to Footballguys this season, I'll highlight a couple of quarterback options likely available in most leagues (we'll use players rostered in fewer than 60% of Yahoo leagues) who could provide some punch at the quarterback position.
Unless most teams in your league carry a backup quarterback, there should be plenty of starting NFL quarterbacks on your waiver wire each week. Instead of starting a low-end QB1 facing an elite secondary, look to the waiver wire and play the matchups. Ideally, a player who appears in this space gets hot for multiple weeks and becomes an every-week starter. But if not, throw him back to the wire and come back here next week. Quarterback is one of the most predictable positions in fantasy football. Simply by using matchups, fantasy GMs can start a mid-to-high QB1 every week by using the waiver wire.
Disclaimer: this column will typically be written on Monday evenings. Should any relevant events occur on Monday Night Football that do not make it into the article, it will be edited after publish. Any post-publication edits will be noted.
Week 11 Results
Let's take a look at how last week's recommendations fared.
Lamar Jackson - vs. Cincinnati
Last week's article was an ode to Jackson. Running quarterbacks are valuable in fantasy football, and if you break it down, it's easy to see why. A rushing yard is worth two times as much as a passing yard, and a rushing touchdown is worth 1.5 times as much as a passing one. Last week, we discussed a history of top-12 fantasy football quarterbacks who weren't effective passers.
Jackson wasted no time adding to that history. His 6.5 passing fantasy points were the 22nd-most in the NFL on Sunday. But his 11.7 rushing fantasy points were the most by a large margin. While it's not a QB1 performance, QB14 isn't bad for a player who is still learning how to successfully be a passer in the NFL.
Marcus Mariota - at Indianapolis
Mariota wasn't performing well, but he was forced to leave the game due to injury. Unfortunately, he didn't get to salvage a bad day with garbage time. Blaine Gabbert's 118 yards and 1 touchdown added to Mariota's fantasy totals would've yielded a QB21 result, so the injury doesn't save the bad call.
Dak Prescott - at Atlanta
Prescott was a rather inefficient 22-32 passing for a paltry 208 yards, but he rushed for another touchdown, which bumped him up to 16.9 fantasy points, QB17 on the week.
Eli Manning - vs. Tampa Bay
Manning didn't torch Tampa Bay to the degree that they've been beaten for most of the season, but 238 yards and multiple passing touchdowns is notable for a player whose job was in jeopardy recently. Manning finished the week as the QB12, narrowly giving us one QB1 finish.
Week 12 Candidates
Here are the players available in at least 40% of typical leagues who could provide QB1 production this week.
Jameis Winston - vs. San Francisco
The Tampa Bay offense and defense both make the team's quarterbacks attractive fantasy options. The quarterbacks themselves are the only things in their own way of fantasy stardom due to their maddening inconsistency. To wit, check out this tweet from our own Adam Harstad, statistician and NFL trivia extraordinaire.
In every single game this year, Tampa’s starting quarterback has gotten
— Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad) November 4, 2018
A) 360 passing yards or
B) 4 passing touchdowns or
C) benched in the second half
It seems unlikely that Tampa will bench Winston again (at least not this soon), so he has to go for at least 360 yards and/or 4 touchdowns, right? Perhaps it not that simple, but the San Francisco matchup is.
The 49ers allow only the 14th-most fantasy point to opposing passers, but their last three opponents have helped with that. Eli Manning, Derek Carr, and Josh Rosen have averaged 206 passing yards and passed for 5 touchdowns in those games. San Francisco has also allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 8 of 10 games. According to our Normalized Strength of Schedule, which accounts for strength of opponent, San Francisco allows 10% more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than teams who have faced the same opponents.
Tampa Bay's offense also makes Winston attractive. Through Week 10's games, no team gained a higher percentage of its total yardage via the pass than Tampa Bay's 79.8%. And that isn't a high percentage of a low number. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in yards per game at 452.8.
The Vegas total on this game opened at a whopping 55 points, with Tampa Bay projected to score 29.25 of those as a -3.5 favorite. If they get anywhere near that, it will be mostly due to Winston and his receivers.
Lamar Jackson - vs. Oakland
By the time waivers run this week, the number of leagues in which Jackson is rostered might be too high to see him in future versions of this column. Hopefully, you read last week and picked him up. Expect Baltimore to give Jackson some more freedom in the passing game against a vastly inferior opponent. And his rushing floor will always remain high.
Baker Mayfield - at Cincinnati
From last week's column, when discussing Baltimore's quarterbacks vs. Cincinnati:
Whoever starts for Baltimore this week has a plus matchup. Cincinnati has allowed at least 319 passing yards in all but three games this season. Those games were:
- Week 3 at Carolina: the Panthers got up early, and game script didn't demand much passing.
- Week 5 vs. Miami: the Dolphins were leading throughout the game until a furious Cincinnati comeback; plus, Ryan Tannehill was the opposing quarterback.
- Week 10 vs. New Orleans: the Saints pounded Cincinnati, leading to "only" 265 passing yards. Drew Brees did, however, pass for three touchdowns and rush for another.
In the six games not listed above, Cincinnati has allowed an average of 385 passing yards, 2.5 touchdowns, and 29.6 fantasy points.
Cincinnati didn't allow a high number of passing yards to Jackson last week, but his production kept the Bengals as the team allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Deep Leagues Only
These selections are best saved for deeper leagues and/or 2QB/Superflex leagues.
- Nick Mullens - at Tampa Bay: 49ers at Buccaneers - the Rent-a-Quarterback Bowl
- Andy Dalton - vs. Cleveland: Cincinnati's defense will force Dalton to keep throwing. If A.J. Green is back, Dalton's arrow points higher.
Looking Ahead
If others in your league are also playing the "Rent-a-Quarterback" game, it might be wise to get a jump on next week's potential choices.
- Case Keenum - at Cincinnati: Cincinnati's opponent will be targeted here as long as the quarterback is Rent-a-Quarterback eligible
- Lamar Jackson - at Atlanta: Jackson will be here as long as he is Rent-a-Quarterback eligible
- Dak Prescott - vs. New Orleans: hope for garbage time
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com
