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Projection reflections

At Footballguys, we provide real-time projections all season long. Our first set goes live the day after the NFL draft, and sometimes the changes can get lost in the shuffle. Statistics are the engine behind many of our key features, but numbers are only valuable if there's context. This feature will take a look at the key projections adjustments each week of the preseason, with an eye toward providing context and significance to the numbers.

Included in this week's column:

1. Andrew Luck gets another bump, this time into the elite tier
2. Philip Rivers drops a few spots but remains a target
3. Two popular QB2 moving in opposite directions
4. Two other starting quarterbacks you care about more than I do
5. Two changes on the quarterback depth chart
6. Early round running backs in motion
7. Peyton Barber is distancing himself from Ronald Jones II II
8. Chris Carson is winning the job, too, but it's transient
9. Three unappealing backfields catalyzing
10. The Vikings receivers are closer together than I thought
11. Draft-worthy receivers in motion
12. Two starting tight ends moving in the wrong direction
13. Trey Burton ping-ponging back up the rankings
14. Florida tight ends flip-flopping spots

Luck on the Rise

Last week, Andrew Luck got a bump along with Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson because their injury risked subsided. Luck gets another upgrade for two reasons:

1. Luck is healthy -- Disregard the box score from the second preseason game and instead focus on Luck being an iron man throughout training camp, and his ability to take hits this week without a hitch
2. Frank Reich likes to throw -- A more careful analysis of the Colts coaching tendencies showed I was too conservative projecting the team's passing attempts. Reich's offenses have averaged 600+ pass attempts. If Luck throws 600+ time (my new projection is for 550), he'll push for the No. 1 spot with Aaron Rodgers

Rolling Down the Rivers

Philip Rivers is one of my favorite quarterbacks. He's been undervalued for almost his entire career. He's been a top-10 fantasy quarterback eight times, including three of the last five years. Yet he routinely gets treated as a QB2 on draft day. As you'll note, my projections only changed by a few points -- knocking 10 attempts and 100 yards from his totals -- but in a tight tier, it was enough to drop him from QB7 to QB11. The good news is Rivers' average draft position has never approached QB7, so he's still well worth targeting at or slightly ahead of his expected draft spot.

QB2s Moving In Different Directions

Mahomes is far and away the more buzzed about player this year because fantasy managers like unproven potential. We haven't seen Patrick Mahomes II struggle yet, but history tells us he probably will. Mariota was awful last year, and that can't be ignored, which is why he's still a mid-tier QB2. But his circumstances did warrant an upgrade.

• Marcus Mariota moved from QB20 to QB17 on the back of slight increases across his passing stats. The upgrade is largely driven by increased enthusiasm for receivers Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor.
• Patrick Mahomes II falls from QB15 to QB19, mainly on a reduction of his rushing statistics. I was already lower on Mahomes than most, and this move signifies he should be passed over in nearly every draft.

Two Guys You Care About More Than I Do

Neither of these quarterbacks is high enough in my projections to matter in anything but 2-QB or Superflex leagues, but chances are you care about one (or both) a lot more.

• Derek Carr's career numbers argue for better projections. I've been reluctant because the Jon Gruden experiment is the epitome of high risk. But I was too low on Carr, and may still be because Gruden is going to call the plays, not offensive coordinator Greg Olson. If Olson is handed the play calls, expect terrible results.
• Mitchell Trubisky wasn't awful as a rookie starter, but the consensus view is he was hamstrung by the lack of supporting cast and a conservative coaching staff. While head coach Matt Nagy is an intriguing hire and the supporting cast is much improved, the evidence of progress isn't there yet.

Shuffling the Deck Chairs, Buffalo Edition

This is arguably one of the least fantasy-relevant quarterback situations in the league, but Josh Allen does have dynasty relevance, and Bills fans hope Allen become redraft worthy in a season or two.

• Josh Allen looks good enough in the preseason to get a shot early. If I were putting money down, I would bet on Allen starting Week 1, but for now, we're raising his projection to 13 games.
• Nathan Peterman was the odd man out in my projections until AJ McCarron hurt his collarbone. Now he's my bet for the guy who replaces Allen if he struggles.
• AJ McCarron was initially diagnosed with a broken collarbone but a second opinion says otherwise. Either way, his chance at starting for the Bills takes a nose dive.

Shuffling the Deck Chairs, Denver Edition

Why am I calling out a swap of one backup for another? Because I also am highly skeptical of Case Keenum. I think there's a high likelihood Keenum turns back into a pumpkin this year after his fairy godmother turned him into a carriage with the Vikings. If I'm right, Chad Kelly's ascension to the No. 2 role could make him the savvy waiver wire pickup who saves your season, particularly in Superflex and 2-QB leagues.

Early-Round Running backs in Motion

• David Johnson hasn't moved in my rankings, but I wanted to call out my projection tweaks because they signify a further distancing of Johnson from the top three of LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, and Ezekiel Elliott. I had Johnson's catch rate far too high; his career mark is 66% which is lower than you might have expected because Johnson -- unlike most running backs -- runs a full route tree. I also slightly increased his rushing totals, but it's still an overall net reduction.
• Joe Mixon gets another slight increase after last week's wholesale reset. The extra rushing touchdown is enough to move him from 15th to 14th.
• Kenyan Drake showed last year he can handle 20 carries, but the coaches seemed reluctant to give him that workload until injuries forced their hand. I've taken ten carries and four receptions off Drake's projection, which is enough to drop him a few spots into the middle of the RB2 group.
• Derrick Henry looks great and gets a slight bump in carries and an additional rushing touchdown.
• Royce Freeman is the truth. In a crowded rookie class, Freeman is the only one that's looked the part this entire summer. He's jumped into the RB2 tier and could move higher in next week's update depending on how the other players in the tier shake out.

Investing In The Barber Shop

It's impossible to feel good about rookie Ronald Jones II entering the heart of fantasy draft season. Beat writers, who lean toward being overly optimistic, haven't had a good thing to say about Jones. He's struggled as a pass blocker and a receiver. Meanwhile, Peyton Barber has passed every test. He's been sharp in practice. He's been the best player on the field in the Buccaneers preseason games. At this point, it makes no sense to not draft Barber several rounds ahead of Jones.

Carson Is Winning the Job, For Now

Penny has been hobbled for the last few weeks and is reportedly 236 pounds, which would be 16 pounds heavier than he weighed at the Combine. If that's true, he's going to need some time to live up to his status as a first-round pick. Meanwhile, Carson has answered the call with a healthy, productive camp. But don't lose sight of the bigger picture. When you're in the fantasy playoffs and pushing for a title, Penny is still more likely to be the leader of the pack. Invest in the best player for the full season, not for the first few games.

• Rashaad Penny has had a forgettable training camp, and that means expectations for the first few games of the season needed a haircut.
• Chris Carson gains where Penny loses. I've increased his carries, yards, targets, receptions, and receiving yards.

Is Their A Colt Worth Lassoing?

The Colts running back situation is hard to decipher. Marlon Mack has his supporters; I'm not one of them. Nyheim Hines is the higher draft pick than fellow rookie Jordan Wilkins, but beat writers have made it clear he's working mainly as a third-down receiving specialist. Which leaves Wilkins, an under-the-radar runner with a good leg drive and patience.

• Marlon Mack is banged up, as he was last year. With the Colts adding two rookies and giving one of them (Wilkins) first-team carries, Mack is not someone to target.
• Nyheim Hines is blazing fast, and well-suited to catching passes in obvious passing situations. It doesn't look like the coaches see him as someone in the mix for carries.
• Jordan Wilkins remains a long shot, which is why he's still projected third of this trio. But he's the one worth taking a late-round lottery ticket on because he could be as good, or better, than Mack.

The Patriots Shuffle Continues