This article will take a weekly look at players who are either undervalued or overvalued in a given week. The outlier value players offer is calculated by a comparison between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the initial weekly Footballguys rankings. Both sources are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's look at this week's outlier players.
Quarterback
- Top 200 ranking: 6
- Weekly ranking: 2
- Difference: +4
The lack of a viable running game has enabled Winston to have a good stretch of fantasy games. The game against Bengals this week allows the Buccaneers to face a bottom-five defense against fantasy passers. We like the Tampa Bay passing game in a contest expected to be high scoring
- Top 200 ranking: 9
- Weekly ranking: 4
- Difference: +5
Cousins and the Vikings host the Saints this week. New Orleans is the second-best matchup for opposing quarterbacks. Cousins should be considered a high-end fantasy option. While still played in a dome, the Saints do not play as well on the road, especially with this being the second consecutive road game. The quality of the New Orleans run defense could translate into more passing attempts for Cousins.
- Top 200 ranking: 4
- Weekly ranking: 13
- Difference: -9
Newton and company host the Ravens this week. The Baltimore defense has been nothing short of spectacular against fantasy quarterbacks as evidenced by last week’s game holding Drew Brees in check for most of the contest. This has the appeal of a low-scoring, hard-nosed, bad-for-fantasy-owners game. Baltimore has an elite pass rush and will look to limit the rushing yards of Newton.
- Top 200 ranking: 3
- Weekly ranking: 8
- Difference: -5
As noted above, Brees and the Saints are in Minnesota for the second road game in a row. We expect coach Zimmer to have his troops prepared. The Vikings have the personnel to make it hard on the New Orleans passing game to move the ball. It will be a great matchup between an elite defensive mind against an elite offensive mind (Sean Payton).
Running Back
- Top 200 ranking: 9
- Weekly ranking: 4
- Difference: +5
White will benefit with a larger workload while Sony Michel gets healed. He should see more carries than normal as the Patriots face the Bills and should have a lead for most of the contest. This game could allow the versatile back to get a larger share of carries than normal as Buffalo has too little offense to remain close past the opening kickoff.
- Top 200 ranking: 28
- Weekly ranking: 10
- Difference: +18
Mack exploded last game and has the upside to having an even bigger game against the hapless Raiders. Oakland seems to have packed it in for the year after trading their two top players away for draft picks. This sends the message loud and clear that the team is not looking to win games. We expect Indianapolis to roll all over Oakland.
- Top 200 ranking: 14
- Weekly ranking: 18
- Difference: -4
Now the fantasy starter in Cleveland, Chubb will have upside many weeks. The game against the Steelers does not appear to be one of them. Pittsburgh is the second-best defense in limiting PPR fantasy to opposing running backs. The Steelers only yield an average of 17 PPR points to entire backfields each week. Considering Chubb will split carries with Duke Johnson Jr, he is tough to start as anything more than an RB2/3 option.
- Top 200 ranking: 13
- Weekly ranking: 20
- Difference: -7
Cook faces a stout Saints run defense. He has been hampered by injuries for most of the year and now faces the fourth-best run defense for fantasy points. We do not expect Cook to get his full workload as the Vikings are working him back to the full complement of touches.
Wide Receiver
- Top 200 ranking: 7
- Weekly ranking: 4
- Difference: +3
Green and Tyler Boyd benefit as they face the second-best matchup for opposing wide receivers. Tampa Bay is a sieve of a pass defense, allowing opposing wide receivers to put up 48 PPR points per game. This pair of receivers struggled against Kansas City, surprisingly, but should not have any issues getting open against Tampa Bay.
- Top 200 ranking: 13
- Weekly ranking: 9
- Difference: +4
Woods will be a value play as long as Cooper Kupp remains sidelined. With the potential for a high-scoring game against Green Bay, we like Woods’ upside for fantasy owners. We like Woods as a fantasy WR1 against a defense that allows big plays in the middle of the field.
- Top 200 ranking: 23
- Weekly ranking: 30
- Difference: -7
Funchess and his teammates have a difficult matchup against the Ravens this week. With a low implied team total of 20 points, the Panthers will have difficulty moving the ball through the air. Also, the low-scoring nature of the game should limit Funchess’ touchdown upside.
- Top 200 ranking: 3
- Weekly ranking: 7
- Difference: -4
Like his quarterback above, we are downgrading Thomas due to the difficult matchup in Minnesota this week. He is still a must-start, but one with a lower ceiling than normal. There is no way we can advise benching him – even with the difficult matchup. Thomas is too good.
Tight End
- Top 200 ranking: 6
- Weekly ranking: 4
- Difference: +2
In a week with several tight ends on bye, the matchup against the Cardinals is a good one for Kittle to reward fantasy owners. He seems to finally be healthy and this is a game the 49ers should win.
- Top 200 ranking: 20
- Weekly ranking: 13
- Difference: +7
Uzomah has a few more weeks before Tyler Kroft comes back. In the meantime, he gets a sublime matchup against the worst defense guarding tight ends. Tampa Bay gives away 20 PPR points each game, on average. There is upside off the waiver wire in Uzomah.
- Top 200 ranking: 4
- Weekly ranking: 8
- Difference: -4
Graham will face a tough test against the Rams this week. We expect Wade Phillips to have a plan to stop the big, athletic tight end. He is an elite defensive coach and we are looking forward to seeing how the Rams defend the Packers.
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