****CHANGE NOTICE****
Repeating this one final time:
Based on recent feedback, there will be some changes to this weekly column. Don’t worry, the picks will still be here – but hopefully, this tweaks will make this column easier to understand and help every reader towards profits every week. So, here are the changes:
- 1. Working under a “star”-less sky. Gone are the “stars”, since we all know what this column is about. Stars will be replaced by “units”. Everyone plays differently – and within reason and a budget – so unit values are different. One-star, two-star and three-star picks are now going to be one-, two-, and three-unit plays. The more units, the more emphasis, weight, and dollars that should be put on that play in a given week. More units = More $$$.
- 2. Best Bets are now replaced by “This Week’s Plays”. Each week the best plays have been highlighted, but the number can vary each week. No need to declare one pick better or best, as the number of units on each play provides that information. The more units on a particular play, the higher the level of confidence with that selection.
- 3. Picks of the Week – These will remain, but will now go at the end of the summary of each game, since they are the best picks against the spread for each week. These picks are likely to also reappear in “This Week’s Plays”, but may have different wagers/units for each pick.
That’s it. The rest stays the same – all games will be picked in the early portion of the column, but the clear goal of this article is to build that bankroll, adding more and more “units” each week. The article will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but will also try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as point totals, or Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Units", which basically highlight the best plays for the week. Those games which have zero units or no mention in “This Week’s Plays” are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Now, back to our regularly scheduled picks.
Okay, apparently Weeks 4-7 were just warm-ups to Week 8. The results were in as soon as the final touchdown was scored by the Vikings on Sunday Night Football, as “This Week’s Plays” topped the 70+% win percentage in remarkable fashion. Even though New Orleans and Minnesota did not go Over 52.5 points, that was the only selection that was incorrect for the week. That’s correct, every other selection won – an astounding 68.8-1 record (98.6%). That brings the season total to +169 units for the year, all of which occurred in October. As mentioned last week, when it is going well, it is REALLY going well. Now, as also mentioned last week, stay humble. Every week is a new week, and they all start at 0-0. Look for the right spots and stick to those games. That’s the plan. Let’s get started.
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
BYE WEEKS: Arizona, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New York Giants, Philadelphia
TEAMS RETURNING FROM A BYE: Tennessee, Los Angeles Chargers, Atlanta, Dallas
(Thursday) OAKLAND (+3) at SAN FRANCISCO (Over/Under 45.5 to 46)
Welcome back to ugly Thursday Night Football. First, the Texans took care of Miami last week, and now we get two one-win teams squaring off in the Bay Area. This is purely based on C.J. Beathard not playing, which is really bad as he might have been the better quarterback in this contest. Now that falls to Derek Carr, and Oakland will hardly be on the road in this contest. Not pretty, but take the better quarterback and a team that scored 28 points instead of a backup-led 49ers team coming off a loss in Arizona. PICK: Raiders
BALTIMORE (-3) vs. PITTSBURGH (Over/Under 47 to 47.5)
Steelers and Ravens is always a close matchup, and this one should be no different. Pittsburgh is coming off a strong home win, but Ben Roethlisberger is not the same quarterback on the road. Baltimore will host this one after a tough loss in Carolina, but the Ravens are stronger on defense and have an underrated offense (and special teams). Another close one, but take Baltimore at home heading into their bye week. NFL teams are 10-2 heading into a bye this year (if you do not count teams that play each other before their byes). The Ravens have to win to move to 4-4 and catch up with Pittsburgh, as Baltimore’s schedule only gets tougher come December. PICK: Ravens
CHICAGO (-9.5 to 10) at BUFFALO (Over/Under 37 to 37.5)
Time to not overthink this one. Chicago is a strong 4-3 team that has a good offense and a strong defense and taking that on the road against a weak Bills squad with Nate Peterman as the starter screams a Chicago win. The expected score is 23-13, and that may be too much to ask of that paltry Buffalo offense on a short week. PICK: Bears
KANSAS CITY (-8.5 to 9) at CLEVELAND (Over/Under 51)
Kansas City may not be undefeated any longer, but the 7-1 Chiefs seem to be a touchdown or more favorite every week, home or away. As long as Tyreek Hill is healthy, his speed is tough to defend with Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt and now Sammy Watkins all producing in the offense. With the Chiefs improving on defense all year on third down, one or two mistakes from the Browns will result in a likely blowout. Cleveland may hang for a while, but expect Kansas City to pull away and win by double digits once again this week. PICK: Chiefs
NEW YORK JETS (+3) at MIAMI (Over/Under 45)
The Jets gave the Bears a solid game on the road last week, while Miami continues to implode since their 3-0 start. Now the Brock Osweiler starting for the Dolphins, New York is poised to steal a game on the road and put both teams at 4-5, with a winnable game (Buffalo) next week before their bye. Miami looks done while New York appears to have one more run at a winning record still to come over the next 2-3 weeks. PICK: Jets
MINNESOTA (-4.5 to 5) vs. DETROIT (Over/Under 49.5)
The Lions just traded away one of their top wide receivers (Golden Tate to Philadelphia) and are transitioning to more of a slower-paced, run-first offense. That works just fine with a lead, but trailing in games will blow up this plan. Minnesota is coming off a tough home loss to the Saints, so a home win is imperative here as this contest is one of five remaining NFC North games for Minnesota. A win here before their bye week will push the Vikings to the top of the division in a very close race. As noted before, teams are 10-2 before bye weeks, which is another strong vote towards Minnesota, who is the better team and has home field advantage. Unless Matthew Stafford pulls off a huge game, the Vikings have the clear edge and should win by a score in the 30-23 range. PICK: Vikings
ATLANTA (+1.5) at WASHINGTON (Over/Under 46.5 to 47)
The Falcons are coming off of their bye week at 3-4 and have to travel to D.C. to take on a 5-2 Washington team. Atlanta tends to be better at home (3-0) and on the turf, but an extra week to rest and prepare can work wonders. Atlanta needs this game desperately to keep their playoff hopes alive, and the Falcons have a shot to win the next two contests (at Cleveland, vs. Dallas) to get to a contending 6-4 record. Washington continues to beat up on lesser opponents, so this will be a solid test for both teams. Tough call but go with the hungrier and more rested team getting a slight head start. PICK: Falcons
CAROLINA (-6.5) vs. TAMPA BAY (Over/Under 54.5 to 55)
Ryan Fitzpatrick is back once again to quarterback Tampa Bay, but offense has not been the problem for the Buccaneers. The defense is giving up over 33 points per game, the worst in the NFL, and Carolina is humming along with a huge comeback in Philadelphia followed by a big outburst of 36 points against the Ravens, who had the best defense in the league before last week. Carolina looks ready to take advantage of their remaining schedule and go on a big run towards the postseason, starting with a divisional win over the Buccaneers in Charlotte. PICK: Panthers
HOUSTON (+1 to 1.5) at DENVER (Over/Under 46 to 46.5)
Denver declared last week to be their Super Bowl, and the Broncos put up a strong fight in a 30-23 loss to Kansas City. Now things have drastically changed for Denver, as Demaryius Thomas has been traded – to Houston, their opponent this week. The Texans were in need of wide receiver help with Will Fuller tearing an ACL and Keke Coutee not quite ready to return, so Thomas is an immediate upgrade at the WR2 spot opposite DeAndre Hopkins. Houston took care of business last Thursday at home, beating Miami soundly, 42-23 in their biggest offensive performance this year. The Texans are rested and ready to seize hold of the AFC South while Denver starts to look towards next season. Go with the team on the rise over the team that lost in their “Super Bowl”. PICK: Texans
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+1.5 to +2) at SEATTLE (Over/Under 47.5 to 48)
Seattle just looked very solid last week on the road in Detroit, winning 28-14 in a game that was not that close from start to finish, but Detroit is a step or two below the Chargers this season. Seattle has been much stronger since they started to run the ball more, and their winning record has reflected that change, but the Chargers are also very underrated with just two losses on the year – to the top two teams, the Rams and the Chiefs. Seattle is a very tough place to play, but Los Angeles has had the extra week to prepare for this matchup. In what could be the sneaky game of the week, this should be a close one that is back and forth between both franchises. Every statistic points to an even matchup, so this is yet another tough call this week. Take the Chargers with rest and an extra point or two of an edge. PICK: Chargers
LOS ANGELES RAMS (+1.5 to +2) at NEW ORLEANS (Over/Under 60)
Los Angeles is still perfect at 8-0, yet they are an underdog heading to the Big Easy to take on the Saints and Drew Brees. Both offenses are outstanding this year, and New Orleans just got a big road win over Minnesota on Sunday Night Football last week, but the difference in this one should come down to defense. The Rams have a strong pass rush and just traded for Dante Fowler from Jacksonville, which will put pressure Brees all afternoon. That should be the difference in what is expected to be a high scoring shootout. Look for Los Angeles to continue their perfect start to the season by a score in the 37-27 range. PICK: Rams
NEW ENGLAND (-5.5 to 6) vs. GREEN BAY (Over/Under 52.5 to 53)
Green Bay came so close to knocking off the Rams last week in Los Angeles with a decidedly Packer-friendly crowd. That shortfall for Green Bay will make it a tough trip to Foxboro to take on another tough opponent after traveling across the country. Tom Brady will gear up for the second half of the season in a rare match between himself and Aaron Rodgers. Despite a short week, the Patriots should be ready and will look to pick apart a Green Bay secondary that has yielded an opposing quarterback rating over 95 this year and will now be without Ha Ha Clinton Dix (traded to Washington). PICK: Patriots
(Monday) TENNESSEE (+6 to 6.5) at DALLAS (Over/Under 40.5 to 41)
Two teams coming off of a bye-week matchup in Dallas on Monday to wrap up Week 9, as the Titans visit the Cowboys. Dallas has only topped 20 points twice this year (26-24 over Detroit in Week 4, and a 40-7 win over Jacksonville in Week 6). The offense for Dallas continues to surround Ezekiel Elliott, and the telling stat here is that Tennessee has only given up three rushing touchdowns all season. A team getting nearly a touchdown in what should be a low scoring contest is just too many points to pass up. PICK: Titans
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Chicago, Kansas City, Minnesota, Carolina, Tennessee
THIS WEEK'S PLAYS
The intent of this column is to give out not only the Plays for the Week in the NFL but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Unit scale. The more units, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game. (More units = More $$$).
Last week the picks stayed away from underdogs, but that is not the trend on a tough Week 9. Again the picks will focus on picking winners and expecting some point spread covers, but several teams getting points will make the cut this week.
The picks are decidedly trickier (Halloween pun intended) this week, and this is one of those times to bask in the glow of a strong run and not play a ton of games that are tougher calls.
* ONE UNIT PLAYS *
- NEW YORK JETS (+140 “FOR THE WIN”) at MIAMI
- (Monday) TENNESSEE (+240 “FOR THE WIN”) at DALLAS
- NEW YORK JETS (+3) at MIAMI
- ATLANTA (+1.5) at WASHINGTON
- (Monday) TENNESSEE (+6.5) at DALLAS
- 6-POINT TEASER: PITTSBURGH (+9) at BALTIMORE (Over 41)
- 6-POINT TEASER: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+8) at SEATTLE (Over 41.5)
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (6.1-1 ODDS):
- KANSAS CITY (-2.5) at CLEVELAND
- CAROLINA (-0.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- NEW ENGLAND (+0.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- CHICAGO (-3.5) at BUFFALO
- ATLANTA at WASHINGTON (Over 40.5)
- MINNESOTA (+1.5) vs. DETROIT
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (8.9-1 ODDS):
- KANSAS CITY (-2.5) at CLEVELAND
- CAROLINA (-0.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- NEW ENGLAND (+0.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- CHICAGO (-3.5) at BUFFALO
- ATLANTA at WASHINGTON (Over 40.5)
- MINNESOTA (+1.5) vs. DETROIT
- KANSAS CITY at CLEVELAND (Over 45)
- 8-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (12.75-1 ODDS):
- KANSAS CITY (-2.5) at CLEVELAND
- CAROLINA (-0.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- NEW ENGLAND (+0.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- CHICAGO (-3.5) at BUFFALO
- ATLANTA at WASHINGTON (Over 40.5)
- MINNESOTA (+1.5) vs. DETROIT
- KANSAS CITY at CLEVELAND (Over 45)
- LOS ANGELES RAMS (+8) at NEW ORLEANS
- 9-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (18.25-1 ODDS):
- KANSAS CITY (-2.5) at CLEVELAND
- CAROLINA (-0.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- NEW ENGLAND (+0.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- CHICAGO (-3.5) at BUFFALO
- ATLANTA at WASHINGTON (Over 40.5)
- MINNESOTA (+1.5) vs. DETROIT
- KANSAS CITY at CLEVELAND (Over 45)
- LOS ANGELES RAMS (+8) at NEW ORLEANS
- (Monday) TENNESSEE (+12.5) at DALLAS
- 10-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (26-1 ODDS):
- KANSAS CITY (-2.5) at CLEVELAND
- CAROLINA (-0.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- NEW ENGLAND (+0.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- CHICAGO (-3.5) at BUFFALO
- ATLANTA at WASHINGTON (Over 40.5)
- MINNESOTA (+1.5) vs. DETROIT
- KANSAS CITY at CLEVELAND (Over 45)
- LOS ANGELES RAMS (+8) at NEW ORLEANS
- (Monday) TENNESSEE (+12.5) at DALLAS
- 10LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at SEATTLE (Over 41.5)
** TWO UNIT PLAYS **
- ATLANTA at WASHINGTON (Over 46.5)
- 6-POINT TEASER: KANSAS CITY (-2.5) at CLEVELAND (Over 45)
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):
- KANSAS CITY (-2.5) at CLEVELAND
- CAROLINA (-0.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- NEW ENGLAND (+0.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- CHICAGO (-3.5) at BUFFALO
*** THREE UNIT PLAYS ***
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- KANSAS CITY (-2.5) at CLEVELAND
- CAROLINA (-0.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- NEW ENGLAND (+0.5) vs. GREEN BAY
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 8-6 (57.1%)
- PICK(S) OF WEEK: 3-4 (42.9%)
- WEEKLY TOP PLAYS: 68.8-1 (98.6%)
Season
- OVERALL: 54-61-6 (47.0%)
- PICK(S) OF WEEK: 24-25-2 (49.0%)
- WEEKLY TOP PLAYS: 244-75-1 (76.5%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com
