For The Win: Week 4 - Footballguys

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Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season, this article will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but will also try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as point totals, or Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.

Some things in life are very predictable, but unfortunately Week 3 of the 2018 NFL season was not one of those things. Maybe it would have been better for Dave Larkin to cover that week as well, but based on the weekly Against the Spread staff pool, we all had a tough go of it. Starting with Buffalo and ending with Pittsburgh, it was a week for upsets – and lots of red on the scoreboard.

Week 4 rolls around now, and we have our first bye weeks starting with both Carolina and Washington with the week off. Both teams won last week, so that is a small but interesting trend. The problem right now is no clear team is a favorite or outstanding – there are a few very good teams like the Rams and Chiefs, but Los Angeles now has been bitten by the injury bug on defense and Kansas City is choosing to just outscore people. Picking winners rarely has felt this hard, but yet we press on. Let's get started.

Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.

BYE WEEKS: Carolina, Washington

(Thursday) LOS ANGELES RAMS (-6.5) vs. MINNESOTA (Over/Under 49 to 50)
This game is a tricky one, as less than a week ago most pointed to this game as a playoff preview. Now after the Vikings were victims of a huge upset at home from the Bills, questions surround Minnesota. Dalvin Cook might play, but odds are he will not be at full strength after missing Week 3. The Rams are also banged up in the secondary, which could pose a problem if Kirk Cousins can get going again. Very difficult game to pick, but the home team is favored by less than a touchdown and is 3-0 with three double-digit victories. Clearly this will be the biggest test for Los Angeles so far, but the pick is to go with home teams on Thursdays. PICK: Rams

PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 to 4) at TENNESSEE (Over/Under 41.5 to 42)
The Titans scored nine points – NINE – and beat Jacksonville last week. Premiere League matchups are more entertaining than that 9-6 train wreck last Sunday. Why would anyone want to watch a game featuring Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles and Marcus Mariota? Now the Titans have signed Austin Powers, er, Austin Davis to backup both Gabbert and Mariota. Philadelphia looked very out of sorts at home against Indianapolis, but they had several skill players (Alshon Jeffery, Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles) all out – yet still found a way to beat the Colts. Look for the Eagles to take care of business on the road in Carson Wentz’s second start this season. PICK: Eagles

CINCINNATI (+5.5) at ATLANTA (Over/Under 51 to 51.5)
Any Over/Under less than 55 might be a gimme this week for two teams that could not stop anyone from scoring in Week 3. Atlanta is decimated on defense and just lost to New Orleans 43-37, while Cincinnati lost 21-31 in Carolina. This looks to be a shootout, and getting more than four points with the underdog feels like the best path. Atlanta 31, Bengals 27. PICK: Bengals

TAMPA BAY (+3) at CHICAGO (Over/Under 46.5 to 47)
Yes, Tampa Bay is coming off a loss. Yes, they are playing on a short week. But they are heading to Chicago to face a Bears team that barely beat Arizona. Tampa Bay should be the favorite based on recent play, and the fact that Chicago just cannot get their passing game moving. The Buccaneers should top 20 points and win this game outright. PICK: Buccaneers

DETROIT (+3) at DALLAS (Over/Under 43.5 to 44)
Over the past five quarters, Detroit has outscored their opponents 40-13 and are freshly coming off of a big home win over New England. Dallas has 41 points all season and are lucky to have beaten the Giants in an ugly contest. Take the team on the upswing against a team that continues to struggle. PICK: Lions

GREEN BAY (-9.5 to 10) vs. BUFFALO (Over/Under 44.5 to 45)
Two bizarre results from last week in my book as the Bills blew away the Vikings in Minnesota while Green Bay struggled in Washington. Josh Allen is getting far too much credit for the Minnesota game – Allen played well (15-22-196-1-0, 10-39 with two rushing scores) but the league adjusts fasts to new quarterbacks. Green Bay needs this victory with a key road game looming next week in Detroit, so take the Packers for a double-digit win. PICK: Packers

INDIANAPOLIS (-1) vs. HOUSTON (Over/Under 47.5 to 48)
This is not the same Houston team from last September – this team seems to have forgotten how to block anyone, as evidenced by the duress Deshaun Watson was under on Sunday and Lamar Miller’s 10 yards rushing on 10 carries. That is one more yard per game than Earl Campbell, who retired well before most of the Texans were born. Indianapolis gave the Eagles all they could handle on the road last week, and Andrew Luck looks like he can run around and rally his team towards a few victories this year – and probably one of those comes in Week 4. PICK: Colts

MIAMI (+7) at NEW ENGLAND (Over/Under 47.5 to 48)
This is the week where everyone will either buy into Miami’s 3-0 start or just scream “See!” and point to their meager opponents (Titans, Jets, Raiders) through three weeks. New England tends to start slow, but this year they look VERY slow and showed next to no signs of life at Detroit on Sunday Night Football. Miami has always played the Patriots tough, and they will be all in for the kill if they can leave Foxboro at 4-0 and put the Patriots down to 1-3, with just one weak win over Houston back in Week 1. Take away the names and reputations of these two teams and it is easy to like Miami more than the Patriots. This is an upset ready to happen – so avoid New England in Survivor this week. PICK: Dolphins

JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS (Over/Under 38 to 38.5)
Jacksonville scored six points last week at home. Now we are supposed to think that the Jaguars are suddenly going to beat a somewhat underrated Jets team by more than a touchdown? Leonard Fournette is desperately needed back for the offense, but the defense is doing plenty of work to set up the offense to have some decent chances. The Jets have struggled since their Week 1 outburst in Detroit, which is starting to look like a major anomaly for a team led by a very young rookie quarterback. The Jets could cover, but the Jacksonville defense could easily outscore the Jets by themselves and take care of a much-needed victory for the Jaguars. That extra half-point is very alarming so only a slight lean here towards Jacksonville. PICK: Jaguars

CLEVELAND (+3) at OAKLAND (Over/Under 44.5 to 45)
Oakland needs to show up for four quarters to get their first win, and while Jon Gruden is claiming that he has played three of the best teams (Miami, Rams, and Denver – a combined 8-1 record), which is true, Oakland’s three losses certainly cloud that excuse. The Raiders were tied with the Rams in Week 1 before fading at home, then they gave up two fourth-quarter leads in Denver and in Miami. Now they host the upbeat Browns, who have won for the first time in 21 months last Thursday. Cleveland is now all in with Baker Mayfield as their starting quarterback, and why not? Also, very quietly Carlos Hyde has been tearing it up with four touchdowns in three contests. Oakland drops to 0-4 while Cleveland celebrates another victory – but has to buy the next round of Bud Light. PICK: Browns

SEATTLE (-3 to 3.5) at ARIZONA (Over/Under 38 to 39)
Another rookie quarterback is about to get his first NFL start, as Josh Rosen will be under center for the 0-3 Cardinals as they host Seattle. The Seahawks are coming off their first victory of the year after beating Dallas in Texas, and a trip to Arizona is almost like a vacation given how lifeless the Cardinals looked this season. The Cardinals did have a late lead against Chicago, but they folded and dropped to 0-3, just like a bad team would. Seattle is not what they once were as far as a strong offense and a stubborn defense, but the Cardinals are already contending for the first pick overall in the 2019 NFL Draft. PICK: Seahawks

NEW ORLEANS (-3 to 3.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS (Over/Under 50)
The Saints just outpaced Atlanta by scoring a million plus six points to Atlanta’s million – which is only a slight exaggeration. New Orleans continues to lose people to injury on defense, which will only make matters worse. The Giants first appeared to lack a ton of firepower to put up big point totals, but that may have been a matter of facing Jacksonville and Dallas in the first two weeks. The 27-22 win in Week 3 showed that the offense has some life, so this game is a sneaky pick for a shootout. New Orleans, having scored 104 points (2nd in the NFL to Kansas City) is still the slight favorite, but the fact that the Saints have also given up 103 points favors the high scoring. Slight lean to the hotter offense. PICK: Saints

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-10 to 10.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO (Over/Under 46 to 47)
Oh my, what was Jimmy Garoppolo thinking? Run out of bounds, quarterbacks. That’s what that white stripe on the side is for – safety and protection. Anyway, the 49ers are done as C.J. Beathard is barely an NFL quarterback, and the 49ers are cobbling together the rest of the team on offense. The Chargers are going to be the top Survivor pick this week and for good reason. Then again, Minnesota looked like a lock last week too – but the Chargers did just lose last week and this is the perfect “get right” game. Chargers by 13 or more. PICK: Chargers

PITTSBURGH (-3) vs. BALTIMORE (Over/Under 51 to 51.5)
Normally this game would be a 20-17 type slugfest, or at least in recent history that is how it would go, with a field goal deciding it in the fourth quarter. Fast forward to now and both teams are putting up points and also giving up plenty as well, which points to that 50+ Over/Under number. Pittsburgh has been scoring at will of late and they just won on the road in Tampa Bay. The Steelers cannot afford a home divisional loss, even against a stout Baltimore team. The Ravens took advantage of their home game in Week 3 against Denver, knowing that this three-game road stretch was coming starting this Sunday. Both teams are of playoff caliber, but Pittsburgh stands to lose much more with a divisional loss at home. PICK: Steelers

(Monday) KANSAS CITY (-4.5 to 5) at DENVER (Over/Under 55 to 56.5)
Week 4 closes in Mile High as the highest scoring offense goes to the highest point in the NFL as the Chiefs take on the Broncos. Denver had their chances in Baltimore last week but failed to cash in, partly due to Philip Lindsay getting kicked out of the game in the first half. Kansas City took San Francisco to task last week in the Chiefs’ home opener, jumping out to a 35-10 halftime lead. The Chiefs took their foot off the pedal in the second half, cruising to a 38-27 victory that was never in doubt. Andy Reid should lead his team to a 4-0 start and the bragging rights as the top AFC team. PICK: Chiefs

BEST BETS

Once again this year this article will give out not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.

Week 4 feels like a week to lean towards some underdogs, but some contests still look tricky. Few teams look dominant, so proceed with caution.

* ONE STAR GAMES *

• TAMPA BAY (“FOR THE WIN” +140) at CHICAGO
• DETROIT (“FOR THE WIN” +145) at DALLAS
• MIAMI (“FOR THE WIN” +250) at NEW ENGLAND
• CLEVELAND (“FOR THE WIN” +125) at OAKLAND
• TAMPA BAY (+3) at CHICAGO
• DETROIT (+3) at DALLAS
• MIAMI (+7) at NEW ENGLAND
• CLEVELAND (+7) at OAKLAND
• 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):

• CLEVELAND (+9) at OAKLAND
• TAMPA BAY (+9) at CHICAGO
• MIAMI (+13) at NEW ENGLAND

• 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (4.1-1 ODDS):

• (Thursday) LOS ANGELES RAMS (-0.5) vs. MINNESOTA
• (Monday) KANSAS CITY (+1.5) at DENVER
• DETROIT (+9) at DALLAS
• CLEVELAND (+9) at OAKLAND
• TAMPA BAY (+9) at CHICAGO

Last Week

• OVERALL: 4-12 (25%)
• BEST BETS (STARS): 8-23 (25.8%)
• PICK OF WEEK: 2-5 (28.6%)

Season

• OVERALL: 18-28-2 (39.1%)
• BEST BETS (STARS): 19.8-34 (36.8%)
• PICK OF WEEK: 10-10-1 (50%)

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com