On July 14th, eight members of the Footballguys Staff, along with four highly regarded writers in the fantasy football community, got together to complete a 12-team, 18 round, Best Ball draft using DRAFT format. Before the draft, each of the participants answered questions regarding strategies, players they coveted and how they plan to attack the draft. Additional questions were asked at the conclusion of the draft based on the decisions they made. To top it off, Footballguys' Justin Howe will provide an evaluation of each team's roster strengths and weaknesses, chronicling the strategies and decisions that were made by each participant.
The goal of this article is to give you a look into the minds of fantasy experts throughout the entire draft process. This includes preparation, decision-making, execution, and follow-up. What was their plan? Did they follow it? Why did they make the decisions they made? Some drafters had similar strategies and players of interest, but how they executed their plan and built their roster, varied from person to person.
We hope you will uncover or discover a strategy that might work for you in your draft(s) this year. Learn what players the experts are targeting and why. At Footballguys, when you win, we win! If we can help give you the tools and know-how to build a winning team, we've done our job.
League Parameters
Best Ball format - Each week, your top scoring players on your roster automatically start and will count toward your season total. The team with the most points at the end of the season wins. Top scores from the starting positions will count for your weekly score.
- 12 teams
- 18 roster spots
- Starting Lineup
- 1 quarterback
- 2 running backs
- 3 wide receivers
- 1 tight end
- 1 flex (either a running back, wide receiver, or tight end)
League Scoring
- Offensive Players Only
- 4 points - Passing Touchdown
- 6 points - Rushing/Receiving Touchdown
- 0.04 points - Passing Yard
- 0.1 points - Rushing/Receiving Yard
- 0.5 point - Reception
- -1 - Interception Thrown
- -2 - Fumble Lost
- 2 - Two-Point Conversion
Draft Grid
Draft Slot 1
Matt Bitonti - Bio
Pre-draft Questions
1. How many of each position do you plan to take?
- Quarterbacks - 3
- Running Backs - 4
- Wide Receivers -8
- Tight Ends - 3
2. How soon do you plan on having three running backs?
By Round 9 or so. I'm going running back 1.01 and might even double up at 2.12 but won't get to RB3 until later. I like Isaiah Crowell in that role.
3. How soon do you plan on having three wide receivers?
By Round 10.
4. When do you plan to select your first quarterback?
Maybe not until round 7 at the earliest.
5. When do you plan to select your first tight end?
Round 6 if there's value on the second tier (I like Evan Ingram this year in the NYG offense plus Barkley) but more likely I'll punt on tight end and look for mid-late round targets.
6. Name a few guys that you are looking to build your team around. What rounds do you expect to get them in?
Todd Gurley - the Rams offensive line is strong this season and he's going to be fed. Also considered Ezekiel Elliott in this spot, something about Le'Veon Bell scares me (it could be his age). If Dalvin Cook makes it to 2.12 I'll take a gamble on him returning from injury. If wide receiver 8 or 9 (Mike Evans? Davante Adams?) will also be considered. I want to get Jimmy Garappolo as QB1 probably around rd 5-6 with this crew of sharks.
7. Give us some advanced strategies you are looking to implement in this draft.
These guys are good. My strategy is to relax and look for value. But if there's a run, I'm either going to recognize it early or go in a different direction positionally.
8. Do you have any trigger points (ie players A and B are gone therefore I am looking to grab player C the next time I pick)
When Evan Engram goes I'll look for Jimmy Graham or Delanie Walker the next time I pick. Maybe Kyle Rudolph but I wouldn't be thrilled about it. The tight end market drops hard after that point.
9. Discuss drafting from the No. 1 hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot?
Having the first pick takes a ton of pressure off, hopefully, Gurley carries this team to a title.
10. What's your approach to bye weeks?
I usually end up stacking up all the byes and losing on the week. It's not ideal and probably a weak spot in past years.
11. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
I'm usually overly optimistic about rookies. Some of them are really special. If somehow Saquon Barkley makes it to 2.12 it would be unreal, he will be gone probably 10 picks before. But suspended or injured guys I tend to fade.
12. At the mid-point of the draft (nine rounds), how many players at each position do you expect to have?
- Quarterbacks - 1
- Running Backs - 3
- Wide Receivers - 4
- Tight Ends - 1
13. After 14 rounds, how many players at each position do you expect to have?
- Quarterbacks - 2
- Running Backs - 4
- Wide Receivers - 6
- Tight Ends - 2
14. Name five players you would love to choose from in rounds 16-18
- WR Martavis Bryant
- WR John Ross
- WR Ryan Grant
- RB Jeremy Hill
- RB James Conner
Draft Selections
Pick
|
Overall
|
Position
|
Player
|
Team
|
1.01
|
1
|
RB
|
LAR
|
|
2.12
|
24
|
TE
|
KCC
|
|
3.01
|
25
|
RB
|
CHI
|
|
4.12
|
48
|
WR
|
DET
|
|
5.01
|
49
|
WR
|
BAL
|
|
6.12
|
72
|
QB
|
SEA
|
|
7.01
|
73
|
WR
|
CLE
|
|
8.12
|
96
|
QB
|
SFO
|
|
9.01
|
97
|
WR
|
Robby Anderson
|
NYJ
|
10.12
|
120
|
RB
|
Ty Montgomery
|
GBP
|
11.01
|
121
|
WR
|
ARI
|
|
12.12
|
144
|
TE
|
JAC
|
|
13.01
|
145
|
TE
|
ARI
|
|
14.12
|
168
|
RB
|
NYJ
|
|
15.01
|
169
|
WR
|
CIN
|
|
16.12
|
192
|
RB
|
DAL
|
|
17.01
|
193
|
RB
|
PIT
|
|
18.12
|
216
|
WR
|
IND
|
Post-Draft Questions
1. You went in with a plan to take four running backs but ended up taking six at the position. Walk through what changed and why you opted to wait until Round 10 to land your third running back.
Waiting until Round 10 to take RB3 was one part of my pre-draft plan that I stuck to. After taking Todd Gurley at 1.01 and Jordan Howard at 3.01, I felt fine letting it slide for a while. After that point, it was a value situation most of the time. Tavon Austin, for example, could be a PPR beast. He's a running back but could be a wide receiver the way they plan to use him.
2. Your plan was to punt tight end into the mid rounds unless the value was there in round 6. You deviated severely by taking Travis Kelce at the end of Round 2and then took avoided the position until you selected back to back tight ends at the 12/13 turn. Talk through what changed and why you opted for a stud to anchor the position.
Rob Gronkowski had just gone two picks earlier, and I believe Travis Kelce will have a better year. He's more durable. At the turn, I knew one of those picks would be running back, but the wideouts I hoped would make it there, did not. I thought about what Sigmund Bloom would do and pulled the trigger on the stud tight end based on value. The wide receiver I ended up drafting (Golden Tate, Jarvis Landry, and Michael Crabtree) are not idea WR1 types but hopefully high target guys, which will hopefully help in the 0.5 PPR league. The "hyphen" picks at the turn of 12/13 (Austin Sefarian-Jenkins and Ricky Seals-Jones), I believe these players will outperform their draft respective slots and felt it was good value at that point in the draft.
3. You stated you wanted Jimmy Garropolo and pulled the trigger to get him aboard your roster. What kind of fantasy season do you see for him?
I went into the draft looking for Garropolo as my QB1. After I fell into Russell Wilson in Round 6, I didn't expect him to last much longer. In my view, this team has two QB1s. Garropolo will have a high completion rate despite throwing more passes than the average NFL starter. In the broader sense, this league is in a transition period from marketing stars in Tom Brady's peer group (Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers etc) into marketing younger quarterback stars. Jimmy Garropolo is one of only a few people who could be the face of the league for the next decade.
4. You were able to get two of your deep sleepers (John Conner and John Ross). What kind of fantasy season do you see for these players?
I picked 1.01 and took Todd Gurley. But I could have had Le'Veon Bell instead. Looking at the players, I considered Ezekiel Elliot the next best option over Bell. Bell's age, his contract situation, it is just scary. The way the league treats running backs and the way the Steelers pay their players, I can't see how this ends well for Le'Veon Bell. John Conner is the guy who benefits from any kind of Bell holdout or absence.
In Cincinnati OTA in May, John Ross was clocked running a deep post at a peak speed of 23.2 MPH. Had this occurred in a game, it would be the fastest recorded speed from last season. He's not a reliable option but the upside cannot be ignored. In leagues where deep touchdowns are rewarded, Ross could exceed his projected points.
Justin Howe's Evaluation
Grade: B
Strengths
Bitonti took a great route at quarterback. It's generally not optimal to target them early in best ball, but this is outstanding value for last year's QB1. Even if Aaron Rodgers reclaims that spot, there shouldn't be a three-round difference between him and Russell Wilson. Bitonti didn't bite on the early Rodgers pick; he sat tight and extracted gobs of value at the 6/7 turn. Adding just one more down the road – an upper-tier QB2 in Jimmy Garoppolo – cements his position without any unsightly fat.
Weaknesses
Travis Kelce looked like a bit of an overcompensation; perhaps Bitonti preferred Rob Gronkowski, who came off the board two picks before him. Still, though Kelce faces a somewhat uncertain 2018, this pick can be defended. The real head-scratcher was Michael Crabtree (WR22), going on 31 and stuck in a shaky offense, over a host of similarly-projected guys with better ceilings. Bitonti left the upsides of Marvin Jones, Alshon Jeffery, Brandin Cooks, and others on the board, as well as real RB2 potential in Royce Freeman and Mark Ingram. As a result, he didn't quite maximize his flex potential.
How He'll Win It All
Todd Gurley retains his top-tier RB1 status, anchoring this roster as planned, while Bitonti's sparse receiving corps produces enough volume to put forth three quality guys each week. This is a solidly-built team, if one lacking in dynamism, and can weather a storm or two.
Draft Slot 2
Ryan Hester - Bio
Pre-draft Questions
1. How many of each position do you plan to take?
- Quarterbacks - 2-3
- Running Backs - 4-6
- Wide Receivers - 6-8
- Tight Ends - 2-3
2. How soon do you plan on having three running backs?
Round 4/5 Turn
3. How soon do you plan on having three wide receivers?
Round 6/7 Turn
4. When do you plan to select your first quarterback?
Is "whenever it feels like the last possible moment to select Patrick Mahomes II II" a viable response? More generally, I'm a late-round quarterback advocate. Unless a top-10 option falls at least a round-and-a-half, I'll wait and select something like this: QB15, QB20, QB24.
5. When do you plan to select your first tight end?
Similar to quarterbacks, I advocate not spending too much capital here. However, without a waiver wire to be the safety net, I'll make it more of a priority than a typical redraft league, where Round 12-13 sometimes still feels early. I'll start thinking about tight ends around my Round 8/9 turn.
6. Name a few guys that you are looking to build your team around. What rounds do you expect to get them in?
If I get either the near their ADP (or one round ahead, based on my draft slot), I'll be happy.
7. Give us some advanced strategies you are looking to implement in this draft.
It's not really advanced, but I want to stick to a positional value plan (late-round quarterback and TE). And I want to be diligent in my positional limits but not at the risk of sacrificing value in premium rounds.
8. Do you have any trigger points (ie players A and B are gone therefore I am looking to grab player C the next time I pick)
Not really. I'm a “let the draft come to me” Player. I find that if I'm too rigid, it can lead to rushed/panicked decisions.
9. Discuss drafting from the No. 2 hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot?
From the 1.02, there's almost no chance that I get through my third pick with three players from the same position. This may seem obvious, but if picking from the middle of each round, I could select a player who fell well past his ADP without the risk of ending up on the wrong end of a positional run.
10. What's your approach to bye weeks?
At the positions with multiple starters (RB, WR), I don't consider them as much more than a tiebreaker. If evaluating between two players on different tiers, why let one week decide the other 15? At quarterback and tight end, especially if early picks lead to only drafting two, obviously bye weeks become a much bigger matter to consider.
11. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
If the player is good and in a good situation (i.e. Mark Ingram or Julian Edelman), I don't let suspensions be a deterrent. The first four weeks are when the rest of the roster is at its healthiest, and there are no bye weeks. Therefore, it's easier to make up the games lost by suspended players (or even by rookies whose volume hasn't ramped up yet) early in the season.
12. At the mid-point of the draft (nine rounds), how many players at each position do you expect to have?
- Quarterbacks - 0
- Running Backs - 4-5
- Wide Receivers - 4-5
- Tight Ends - 0-1
13. After 14 rounds, how many players at each position do you expect to have?
- Quarterbacks - 2
- Running Backs - 5-6
- Wide Receivers - 5-6
- Tight Ends - 1-2
14. Name five players you would love to choose from in rounds 16-18.
Due to the late-round quarterback and tight end strategy, I'll be picking at least one from that position group here. Players such as Mitchell Trubisky, Case Keenum, Tyrod Taylor, Vance McDonald, Ricky Seals-Jones, and Ben Watson all stick out as options that could provide multiple usable weeks.
Unexciting pass-catching running backs can provide a buoy in an otherwise down week. That makes players such as Javorius Allen and T.J. Yeldon draftable. Geronimo Allison is the wide receiver that sticks out most. Even as a WR3, he has best ball value by virtue of playing with Aaron Rodgers.
Draft Selections
Pick
|
Overall
|
Position
|
Player
|
Team
|
1.02
|
2
|
RB
|
ARI
|
|
2.11
|
23
|
WR
|
TBB
|
|
3.02
|
26
|
WR
|
KCC
|
|
4.11
|
47
|
WR
|
PIT
|
|
5.02
|
50
|
RB
|
Mark Ingram
|
NOS
|
6.11
|
71
|
RB
|
CHI
|
|
7.02
|
74
|
WR
|
LAR
|
|
8.11
|
95
|
WR
|
SFO
|
|
9.02
|
98
|
QB
|
PHI
|
|
10.11
|
119
|
RB
|
NEP
|
|
11.02
|
122
|
QB
|
KCC
|
|
12.11
|
143
|
RB
|
BUF
|
|
13.02
|
146
|
TE
|
BUF
|
|
14.11
|
167
|
TE
|
ATL
|
|
15.02
|
170
|
TE
|
WAS
|
|
16.11
|
191
|
WR
|
HOU
|
|
17.02
|
194
|
QB
|
CLE
|
|
18.11
|
215
|
WR
|
DAL
|
Post-Draft Questions
1. You stayed true to your plan with the small exception of going WR/WR/WR after drafting David Johnson. Walk through the picks of Evans, Tyreek Hill, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Why did you prefer these players over the running back position when you drafted.
In general, I'm more likely to pick "best player available" than be stuck to a particular position in the early rounds. In the later rounds, the expected value of each pick decreases to a point where differentiation is minimal. Therefore, reaching for someone in Round 11 that has a Round 13 ADP doesn't leave a lot of potential equity on the table. To specifically address Evans, Hill, and Smith-Schuster, I had Hill as a target at 3.02 before the draft. I'm a fan of Kansas City this year, and Hill's skill set aligns well with that of Patrick Mahomes II II. I think Hill maintains his 2017 value as a floor, and Sammy Watkins has a nice year. All of that leads to Travis Kelce's piece of the pie becoming smaller and the running backs not doing much in the passing game. 2.11 was a place where I planned to be flexible. When Evans fell, it felt too good to pass up. As for the fourth round, the available running backs were putrid. The next three to go off after my selection of Ingram at 5.02 were Ronald Jones II, Royce Freeman, and Jamaal Williams. Are we sure any of them even have a starting job? I value Rex Burkhead (picked at 6.02) above those guys.
2. You waited until round 13 and then selected tight ends in rounds 13,14, 15. Explain why this can work out in a Best-Ball league.
Tight end is so volatile and touchdown-dependent, especially with anything less than full PPR scoring. But to be honest, what really set this stretch in motion was Matt Bitonti picking two of my favorite late-round tight ends consecutive right between my 12.11 and 13.02 picks! Had I been able to get Austin Seferian-Jenkins or Ricky-Seals Jones at 13.02, I would not have reached for Vernon Davis at 15.02. The plan was always one of those guys in the 13th, another decent option in the 14th, and then wait a bit later for a real flier late. Even admitting that Davis was a reach, though, the ceiling is there. Jordan Reed can't be expected to play a full season; Alex Smith loves throwing to tight ends, and we've seen the Smith-Davis rapport in action back in their San Francisco days. Davis will be projected as a TE1 any week Reed isn't playing.
3. You had Tyrod Taylor as a sleeper you wanted late and got him in round 17. What are your expectations?
They aren't incredibly high, to be honest. But he should provide a solid floor early in the year. Carson Wentz probably won't play in Week 1, and Patrick Mahomes II II opens at L.A. Chargers, at Pittsburgh. While both of those potential top-six quarterbacks get their proverbial sea legs, I expect Taylor's actual legs to prevent the quarterback spot from sinking my team early.
4. You opted for just five running backs despite taking Mark Ingram who will miss the first four games of the year. Talk through punting RB2 with a high FP/game player (Ingram) and your use of complimentary players (White and Ivory) to have strong running backs at a fraction of the normal cost.
It's charitable of you to call this group strong, but I'll take it. I wanted more than five at this position, but sometimes things don't work out. The combination of the value of Evans at 2.11 and the aforementioned tight end conundrum left me one fewer rusher than I wanted. That said, I liked the value with Ingram. Sure, he'll miss four games, but the rest of my team should be healthy in the first quarter of the year. And when he comes back, he'll be fresh, still in a contract year, and potentially picking up the slack for a perhaps-overworked Alvin Kamara. Ingram also did well at the goal line last year, and multi-touchdown games certainly have their place in Best Ball. As for the complementary pieces, White is a "5x5" guy. He'll have at least five games with at least five receptions. In Best Ball scoring, sometimes all fantasy GMs can do is hope that certain players have their big weeks when others are lacking. The intent with the Ivory pick was the concern with LeSean McCoy's availability and, if McCoy does play, a handcuff of an older back with plenty of tread on the tires. While Buffalo's offense won't be fertile ground for running back production, if Ivory has the backfield to himself, some RB2 weeks should be there.
Justin Howe's Evaluation
Grade: A-
Strengths
Hester certainly had the right idea at quarterback. He stood pat through the first tier but scooped Carson Wentz's top-tier upside in Round 9, two rounds after wildcard DeShaun Watson. He then added two more high ceilings in the double-digit rounds, giving him a healthy chunk of week-to-week quarterback play. Waiting even longer to triple up at tight end helped, too. Those strategies allowed Hester to stockpile flex guys in the middle rounds, and he has tons of worthwhile bodies at running back and wide receiver.
Weaknesses
For all of his depth elsewhere, Hester is in wait-and-see mode at running back, which can be deadly in best ball format. David Johnson could enter the year rusty, or handcuffed by a potentially bad offense, and there aren't many reinforcements here. If Mark Ingram follows suit – he'll miss the first four games, and has never been a darling of Sean Payton – then Hester will find himself buried here.
How he'll win it all
Hester wins the flex position on a weekly basis, boasting three receivers with fantasy WR1 ceilings and a strong mid-round volume guy in Cooper Kupp. During wide receiver boom seasons (think 2013-15), this type of approach is a golden goose, putting high receiver scoring onto the board each and every week. Hester is set up nicely from that angle but will go only as far as his running backs take him. He looks relatively fragile there.
Draft Slot 3
Bob Harris
Named the first ever Fantasy Football Writer of the Year by the FSWA in 2005, Bob Harris was inducted into the organization's Hall Of Fame in 2013. He began his Fantasy sports career as Editor and Webmaster of the TFL Report in 1993. He added Senior Editor for Fantasy Sports Publications, Inc. to his list of titles in 1997; his work has been prominently displayed in all four FSP Fantasy annuals -- Fantasy Football Pro Forecast, Fantasy FootballDiehards, Fantasy Football CheatSheets and the Fantasy Football DraftBook -- ever since. You will currently find Harris online exclusively at FootballDiehards.com. You can also listen to Harris daily on FootballDiehards on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87).
Pre-draft Questions
1. How many of each position do you plan to take?
I'll shoot for at least six running backs and seven wide receivers. I'll handle the onesie positions based on risk. If I go with a more conservative approach, I'll go with two each at quarterback and tight end (using the additional pick on a flier at running back or wide receiver). If I'm selecting a high-risk/high-reward player (Carson Wentz coming off the late-season ACL; Jordan Reed or Tyler Eifert at tight end), I'll likely go three deep at that position.
2. How soon do you plan on having three running backs?
By the end of Round 7.
3. How soon do you plan on having three wide receivers?
By the end of Round 7.
4. When do you plan to select your first quarterback?
After Round 9 (ideally waiting until the double-digit rounds).
5. When do you plan to select your first tight end?
Round 2.
6. Name a few guys that you are looking to build your team around. What rounds do you expect to get them in?
Having the third pick overall means I'll get one of my top three running backs. Selecting a tight end in Round 2 means I'm targeting Rob Gronkowski or Travis Kelce (with the fallback going much later with riskier, high-reward players).
7. Give us some advanced strategies you are looking to implement in this draft.
I think the advanced strategies I employ all center on being prepared to adjust to the flow of the draft. This is a tough room. It will require reaches to secure players I'm targeting later in the draft. Part of that is focusing on potential opportunities. The NFL depth charts are something people have a tendency to look past at wide receiver. I try not to do that.
8. Do you have any trigger points (i.e. Players A and B are gone therefore I am looking to grab Player C the next time I pick)
There comes a point at running back when I will be looking for some overlooked NFL starters at running back. Particularly Marshawn Lynch and Isaiah Crowell. Not sexy picks, but solid at the right price. If I missed out on guys like Alex Collins, Lamar Miller, or others in that range, I'll get very itchy about landing Lynch. If I miss out on Lynch I'll go into a full-blown panic mode to land Crowell.
9. Discuss drafting from the #3 hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot?
I love this spot. Again, landing one of the top three running backs is important to me. And coming around fairly late in Round 2 should give me a reasonable shot at Kelce if I miss out on Gronkowski.
10. What's your approach to bye weeks?
I only pay attention at the onesie spots.
11. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
I'm fine drafting rookie running backs at their current values. That pretty much extends to all of them (even if I don't love the fact Sony Michel is in New England, there's a point I won't ignore him). Injured, injury prone (or extensive injury histories) and suspensions are all created value. I'm all about that.
12. At the mid-point of the draft (nine rounds), how many players at each position do you expect to have?
- Quarterbacks - 0
- Running Backs - 4
- Wide Receivers - 4
- Tight Ends - 1
13. After 14 rounds, how many players at each position do you expect to have?
- Quarterbacks - 2
- Running Backs - 5
- Wide Receivers - 5
- Tight Ends - 2
14. Name five players you would love to choose from in rounds 16-18.
Draft Selections
Pick
|
Overall
|
Position
|
Player
|
Team
|
1.03
|
3
|
RB
|
PIT
|
|
2.10
|
22
|
TE
|
NEP
|
|
3.03
|
27
|
RB
|
SFO
|
|
4.10
|
46
|
WR
|
CLE
|
|
5.03
|
51
|
WR
|
PHI
|
|
6.10
|
70
|
WR
|
LAR
|
|
7.03
|
75
|
RB
|
NYJ
|
|
8.10
|
94
|
RB
|
WAS
|
|
9.03
|
99
|
WR
|
SFO
|
|
10.10
|
118
|
QB
|
LAC
|
|
11.03
|
123
|
WR
|
DET
|
|
12.10
|
142
|
TE
|
CIN
|
|
13.03
|
147
|
QB
|
JAC
|
|
14.10
|
166
|
WR
|
OAK
|
|
15.03
|
171
|
RB
|
LAC
|
|
16.10
|
190
|
WR
|
NYJ
|
|
17.03
|
195
|
TE
|
LAR
|
|
18.10
|
214
|
QB
|
ARI
|
Post-Draft Questions
1. This draft went nearly flawlessly to your pre-draft strategy. You had hoped Rob Gronkowski would make it back to you in round two and he did. What kind of season do you expect from him in 2018?
I feel fortunate that Sigmund Bloom wasn't in this draft; it might have been more difficult to land Gronkowski when I did. As for my expectations -- and injury concerns are baked into this (he's missed 26 of 96 games over the last six seasons), they're high. Even with the missed time, he still leads all tight ends in receiving yardage and touchdown receptions since 2014. He also sits second among tight ends in fantasy points, and he has four top-five seasons since 2012. My forecast? More of the same -- perhaps with a faster start thanks to Julian Edelman's four-game suspension.
2. You tagged Isaiah Crowell as a non-sexy value play pre-draft and were able to land him in round 7. How good can he be for the Jets?
First of all, Marshawn Lynch going two picks before I planned to take him was soul crushing. But Crowell is always my fallback in cases like this. Here's why: He's led Cleveland's rushing attack over his four-year career, accumulating 737 carries for 3,118 yards and 21 touchdowns while catching 96 passes for 770 yards and one touchdown. Pretty solid production on a lousy team that often played from behind. In New York, it sounds like Bilal Powell is losing favor with the coaching staff. And while Elijah McGuire is still on board, don't overlook the possibility Crowell can handle a three-down role. According to ESPN's Mike Clay, only 20 backs have seen more targets during over the last four seasons and Powell -- often viewed as a standout pass-catcher -- has seen only 13 more targets than Crowell the past two seasons. Beyond that, Crowell has the frame to withstand a heavier workload than he's had to date, and as Bleacher Report recently suggested, with more carries he could wear down defenses late in games. Whichever quarterback earns the starting nod in New York, the Jets would like nothing better than Crowell providing them with a solid, early-down hammer capable of keeping the offense on schedule.
3. tight end Tyler Eifert in another non-sexy pick with countless upside if healthy. In the 12th round, you felt the risk was worth the reward. How confident are you he can return to the dominant player we witnessed in years past?
It all depends on whether he's on the field. And that's obviously a crapshoot. In fact, Eifert has only been on the field for 39 of a possible 80 games since he entered the league. That includes fewer than three games two of the past four years. When healthy, however, the upside is there. Remember, Eifert missed three games in 2015 but still led tight ends in the league with 13 touchdowns. He missed eight games in 2016, but scored five touchdowns and ranked seventh at the position in fantasy points per game. So, yes. Durability a major concern. But in Round 12, the upside is pretty tempting. I will note that drafting Eifert (and in part because he's paired with Gronk) forced me to land a third tight end. I could have easily gone Tyler Kroft here (he's proven to be very capable when his teammate Eifert isn't available), but I decided to go with a possible upside play in the form of Rams second-year man Gerald Everett.
4. How soon do you expect Rosen to take over the starting job in Arizona?
I think Rosen is ready to start immediately. Remember, he completed 60 percent of his passes at 7.5 yards per attempt with 23 passing touchdowns and just 11 interceptions as an 18-year-old true freshman at UCLA in 2015. He can have a similar immediate impact in Arizona in 2018, mainly because of his footwork and accuracy at the short and intermediate levels make him an ideal candidate to run a West Coast Offense in the NFL. Much depends on Sam Bradford's health. I'll admit, Week 1 seems unlikely. So without putting a timetable on it, I'll just go with my belief that Rosen is the most pro-ready of all this year's rookie quarterbacks.
Justin Howe's Evaluation
Grade: A
Strengths
This exceptionally balanced roster is built through its running backs, and they're stout. Le'Veon Bell is a true workhorse that will anchor him most weeks, and Harris has assembled a fine crew to jockey for RB2 duties. It's not all quantity, either: Jerick McKinnon boasts realistic top-10 upside as a semi-workhorse in Kyle Shanahan's offense, while Isaiah Crowell was an utter steal as the RB35 off the board. With gobs of touchdown potential from the late rounds, Harris' draft is a fantastic blend of floor and ceiling.
Weaknesses
One could quibble with Harris' choice of early-round wideouts. Josh Gordon, Alshon Jeffery, and Robert Woods all carry considerable floors, and two of them succumbing to the negatives would cripple his chances. He could have sprinkled in a proven volume guy from that tier – Golden Tate, Michael Crabtree, and Jarvis Landry all hovered near those picks – to mitigate some of their risks. Still, snatching Pierre Garcon in Round 9 goes a long way toward making up those worries over volume.
How he'll win it all
Harris dominates the league's running back totals on the backs of Bell and four others who enter training camp with relatively clear roles. Rob Gronkowski plays in 14 or 15 games, and Harris' upside-driven receivers spend the year trading off the explosive stat lines they're all capable of. The names assembled on this roster, while all come with some demonstrable flaw, are stupefying.
Draft Slot 4
Mike Tagliere
Full-time NFL Writer Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros.com has finished top-six in the FantasyPros accuracy competition twice and co-hosts the FantasyPros podcast throughout the year. Each week during the NFL season, he writes his signature piece titled “The Primer” which covers every player from every game with a fantasy angle for both DFS and season-long league players. FantasyPros offers a bevy of tools for users, from their award-winning, lightning-fast mock draft lobby titled Draft Wizard to their My Playbook services for those in multiple leagues, as well as up-to-date news on all your favorite fantasy players.
Pre-draft Questions
1. How many of each position do you plan to take?
It really varies from draft to draft in best-ball, where I'll take three quarterbacks and/or tight ends if I don't land one of the Top 6 at the positions. But as an outline to best-ball, I typically plan on walking away with this breakdown:
- Quarterbacks - 2-3
- Running Backs - 5-6
- Wide Receivers - 6-7
- Tight Ends - 2-3
2. How soon do you plan on having three running backs?
I've typically got my third running back by the fifth round, as they dry up extremely fast after that.
3. How soon do you plan on having three wide receivers?
I've been taking my time with the wide receiver position, as it seems you need to get ahead of the curve at running back, with some decent options still left on the board at wide receiver in the fifth and sixth round. It's not often that I have three wide receivers before the sixth or seventh round.
4. When do you plan to select your first quarterback?
Knowing that this is a league with analysts, I might just have Aaron Rodgers on my team. While most devalue the position (rightfully so), Rodgers shouldn't be taken behind guys like Marvin Jones and Jimmy Graham. If all goes as I think it will, I'd expect to have a quarterback at the very latest by the eighth round, but I'll pull the trigger on Rodgers in the fifth if he's there.
5. When do you plan to select your first tight end?
For me, it's Gronkowski or Kelce at the 2/3 turn or I'm waiting until the area of Jordan Reed/Trey Burton. You have to fall in the right spot to get one of the top two guys, so I'll say that I plan on selecting mine in the eighth or ninth round (where Reed and Burton typically go).
6. Name a few guys that you are looking to build your team around. What rounds do you expect to get them in?
I have more Sony Michel than I'd like to admit, but that's because his price was way too low for way too long, though it's started to rise as of late. I'll pull the trigger on him in the fourth round if he's there. DeVante Parker is a player who is also on many of my best-ball teams because I believe he's being drafted at his absolute floor, which is why I'm willing to