
Greetings and welcome to Week 16! What follows is a weekly strategy guide covering the main slate of FanDuel guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). It will be available every Friday from now until the Super Bowl.
Thoughts on Chalk
Even though creating roster uniqueness has long been the default strategy for GPPs, thereâs a reason why certain players hold the confidence of the public. Remember that fading a player simply because heâs popular checks in as one of the worst processes. You wouldnât build a lineup full of chalk; nor should you ignore a great situation in the name of contrarianism. With that said, this section will be dedicated to finding reasons why you might consider fading the players listed below. Keep in mind that all of these players are expected to have big games, so outright fades are never recommended, and be sure to check out Steve Buzzardâs percent rostered projections.
QB: Dak Prescott - $7,300
Could it be that the Buccaneersâ have finally sorted out their defense? Since Week 10, theyâve allowed only 15.8 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks. Granted, those games featured Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Nick Mullens, Cam Newton, Drew Brees, and Lamar Jacksonâa list that hardly presents much competition. Prescott is better than some of those players but by how much? Enough to justify his projected roster percentage? Enough to win tournaments? Enough to float both Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper while still returning the 22 points he needs to hit tournament value?
He enters Week 16 with only 17 touchdowns and eight interceptions and ranks 24th in passing attempts per game. His passing yards rank 17th, and heâs developed a reputation for fumbles. The only reason his floor exists is because of rushing yards and touchdowns, ranking seventh and second respectively among passers. Only Deshaun Watson has been sacked more than Prescott, and the loss of right guard Zack certainly doesnât help. We donât know if Martin will return to the lineup against the Bucs, but we do know that the playoffs are on the line (itâs not a must-win in practice, but in theory, any game that could hand you the division crown is a must-win). We also know that the best way for the Cowboys to secure that win is through their all-star running back. A healthy dose of Elliott, even more than usual, seems likely. If you roster Prescott, and by extension Cooper (who projects to be one of the highest owned wide receivers) youâre effectively saying that Jason Garrett and Co. intend to put the game into the hands of their quarterback, which wouldnât register as what the experts refer to as âgood processâ.
Still, the matchup and the price are right. The Bucs have been a consistent source of fantasy points for both quarterbacks and wide receivers. So, it makes sense to stack Prescott with Cooper and hope Jameis Winston can find some success against the Cowboysâ vaunted defense and push this game into a shootout (we should acknowledge that Winston profiles as a sneaky GPP option while everyone else is on Prescott. Because if Prescott turns in a big day, logic suggests itâs because this game turned into a barnburner, and the Bucsâ offense is capable of blowing up the scoreboard regardless of opponent). The more likely scenario involves a lot of good defense and Elliott handling a lot of touches. Some of those touches will include receptions, which could turn into touchdowns and vault Prescott into a GPP-winning stat line. Thatâs a risky bet, but as always, risky bets are generally encouraged in large-field tournaments; we just prefer them to include low ownership projections to boot. All things being equal, itâs not difficult finding better options at quarterback this week and still have enough salary left over to draft a few high-priced studs at other positions. And if you do decide to roster Prescott, consider stacking him with Elliott instead of Cooper.
RB: Ezekiel Elliott - $8,800
As mentioned above, the Cowboys can clinch the NFC East with a home win against the Buccaneers on Sunday. That was also true last week when they traveled to Indianapolis and failed to put a single point on the board. It was one of their worst overall performances of the season. Elliott again proved that he is immune to game scripts since heâs basically the teamâs WR2. Had he pushed his way into the end zone from the three-yard line on a 4th-and-1 early in the second quarter, he would have finished as a top-10 running back instead of RB19 per FanDuel scoring.
This week ushers in a much friendlier matchup. The Bucsâ defense has provided RB1-numbers all season and head to Dallas having allowed the most total touchdowns to the position and a healthy 4.8 yards per carry. Theyâve also yielded the 10th highest catch rate and 13th most receiving yards to backs, which is obviously a bonus for Elliott, whose 89 targets lead the team and rank fifth among running backs. Hopefully, Martin can make his return after missing last week, but even if he doesnât, Elliott is an absolute smash-spot and has RB1, tournament-swinging upside. Feel free to build your rosters around him even if he draws a ton of exposure from the crowds.
WR: T.Y. Hilton - $7,700
Hilton apparently doesnât require full weeks of practice to perform, as evidenced by his eight-catch, 85-yard effort last week. Heâs locked in as one of Andrew Luckâs top options and is always a threat to haul in deep scores from anywhere on the field. Since Week 11, he has more receiving yards than all players and has drawn 52 targetsâfourth-most in the league. With a soft Giantsâ defense coming to town, he should make good on his salary and provides a high enough floor to not tank rosters if he fails to reach the end zone. But even though his chances of âboomingâ are worth chasing, the game flow could easily filter to Marlon Mack and ultimately cap Hiltonâs tournament upside as a result. Even eight catches for 120 yards would feel disappointing if all the touchdowns go to running backs and tight endsâa stark reality with this offense. Just like last week, we might do well managing our shares and coming in under the crowd.
TE: Eric Ebron - $6,100
Another week, another situation where Ebron projects to be one of the most popular players of the slate. His price fits the profile as a building piece, and his matchup looks promising against a defense thatâs allowed the 13th most yards to tight ends. The Giants donât have the manpower to eliminate all of Luckâs weapons, so even though both Hilton and Mack could return big games, Ebron is the best bet among them to provide multiple scores. This slate offers few obvious options for tight ends, so it makes sense to load up on the guy who, up until last week, has been his quarterbackâs favorite option. But game theory urges us to come in under the crowd whenever a tight end ends up near the top of exposure percentages, especially if said tight end isnât named Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, or Zach Ertz. Definitely get some shares, but donât force Ebron into your builds.
Core Players
Core players need no explanation: they are the meat and potatoes of lineups. Developing a list and building around them is DFS Strategy 101.
QB: Ben Roethlisberger - $8,700
Roethlisberger held this same spot in this space last week and failed to deliver. In fact, the Steelers/Patriots tilt was one of the most disappointing results in Week 15 from a DFS perspective. Things may have turned out a lot better had the Patriots found a way to slow down Jaylen Samuels (19 carries, 142 yards, 7.4 YPC). Unfortunately, their defense focused on Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster and effectively suppressed the Steelersâ passing game.
That could be the case in New Orleans as well. The Saints have allowed only 221 passing yards per game since Week 10 and the seventh-fewest FanDuel points. Theyâve also logged 14 takeaways, eight of which were interceptions, and only 12.3 offensive points per contest. But context, as always, is our best friend:
Player | Week | Comp | Att | PassYd | PassTD | Int | Rsh | RshYD | RshTD | FantPt | Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cam Newton | 15 | 16 | 29 | 131 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 5.74 | 8400 |
Jameis Winston | 14 | 18 | 38 | 213 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 20.22 | 7700 |
Dak Prescott | 13 | 24 | 28 | 248 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 14.12 | 7600 |
Matt Ryan | 12 | 35 | 47 | 377 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 21.68 | 8600 |
Carson Wentz | 11 | 19 | 33 | 156 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3.84 | 7700 |
Jeff Driskel | 10 | 2 | 3 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 1 | 11.3 | 6000 |
Andy Dalton | 10 | 12 | 20 | 153 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 8.92 | 7900 |
Jared Goff | 9 | 28 | 40 | 391 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 30.34 | 8400 |
Kirk Cousins | 8 | 31 | 41 | 359 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 21.66 | 8300 |
Joe Flacco | 7 | 23 | 39 | 279 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 19.56 | 7500 |
Lamar Jackson | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 7.1 | 6100 |
Alex Smith | 5 | 23 | 39 | 275 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 14.7 | 7400 |
Eli Manning | 4 | 31 | 41 | 255 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 14.7 | 7100 |
Matt Ryan | 3 | 26 | 35 | 374 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 40.16 | 7700 |
Tyrod Taylor | 2 | 22 | 30 | 246 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 15.44 | 6600 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 21 | 28 | 417 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 36 | 1 | 42.28 | 6200 |
Needless to say, their competition hasnât been very strong in the given sample. Newton and the Panthersâ offense has disappeared. Winston and Ryan both managed decent games and the combination of Driskel and Dalton was good enough for over 20 points. But in general, most of the Saintsâ opponents over their last six games, except Ryan, hardly inspire fear for a defense. And none of them bring a Steelersâ level of offense to the table. This is a must-win for Pittsburgh, and theyâll likely struggle to generate rushing production against the Saints, where their biggest strength is on defense. On the other side of the ball, Drew Brees and Co. have a chance to lock up home-field advantage for the playoffs with a win. So we should expect both teams to be aggressive in this one and return a bundle of fantasy points as a result. Roethlisberger deserves top considerations for all formats on Sunday (and be sure to log a few Brees/Michael Thomas stacks as well).
QB: Deshaun Watson - $8,000
Only six quarterbacks in NFL history have been sacked 60 times in a season. Watson currently sits at 52 sacks after absorbing six last week. Itâs an issue that holds more credence for real life football than DFS, but itâs obviously a major concern. Thankfully, the Eagles are on deck and own the leagueâs fifth-lowest sack rate. And sacks havenât prevented him from returning usable fantasy numbers anyway. Since Week 8, only three quarterbacks have scored more FanDuel points per game, only four have more rushing yards, and no passer has a higher completion rate. He most recently turned 28 pass attempts into nearly 300 yards and two scores, finishing as Week 15âs QB2. Now he gets an Eaglesâ team that has been ripped to shreds by passers all season and suddenly showed signs of life on offense thanks to Nick Foles. Philadelphia salvaged its season last week with a shocking upset of the Rams, and now has a chance at squeezing into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Texans would clinch the AFC South with a win on Sunday, so we can expect a lot of aggression out of these teams in a likely high-scoring affair.
Of course, if DeAndre Hopkins misses this game, we should pump the breaks and look elsewhere. He twisted an ankle and briefly limped off, only to return a short time later. Barring a setback, he should suit up in what profiles as an explosive situation. Keke Coutee seems less likely to play, but if he returns, Watson, in addition to his rushing upside, will have a full complement of weapons against a defense that tends to funnel offenses towards the pass (theyâve allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards and fifth-most receiving yards to running backs, further cementing Watsonâs ceiling).
RB: Saquon Barkley - $9,000
Itâll be interesting to see how the crowd reacts to Barkleyâs âhumanâ game last week and a solid Coltsâ defense that shut out a much better offense in the Cowboys. Given his price and situation, itâs logical to think the crowd stays away while targeting cheaper options. That sets us up with a great âbet on talent and opportunityâ situation with a slight edge in ownership. The Colts, as mentioned in this space last week, field an underrated defense capable of shutting down flaky offenses such as the Giants. Their biggest weakness, however, happens to be defending pass-catching running backs. Before Elliott clocked them with seven catches for 41 yards, T.J. Yeldon managed seven for 49 yards in Week 13, Kenyan Drake logged five catches for 64 yards and a touchdown in Week 12, and Yeldon and Leonard Fournette combined for 10 catches, for 107 yards and a score in Week 10. All told, the Colts have permitted the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs on the season.
You apply that to how the Giants use Barkley, and you have an obvious floor that could easily explode into a tournament-winning ceiling. He ranks 21st in targets among all players on the season, and third among running backs. Only Elliott and Todd Gurley have logged more total yards, and only four players own a higher market share of red zone opportunities. This is not a great matchup for the Giants, and thereâs a case for rostering the Coltsâ defense, but Barkley has overcome much tougher matchups and may go overlooked among the masses. You could even roster both him and the Coltsâ defense in the same lineup even though thatâs generally a negative correlation situation. Doing so sets up a super unique roster with a floor high enough to overcome said negative correlation.
RB: Nick Chubb - $7,900
Since Week 8 only Ezekiel Elliott has earned a higher market share of carries, and only five other players have logged more touches than Chubb. His ceiling failed to come through last week against the Broncos, but he parlayed 20 carries into his third 100-yard game of the season, most of which came on this play:
Looks like the #Browns go with some mid-zone/ICE here. Great work from Nick Chubb to spring it between whatever Robinson's block attempt was and cousin Bradley. Big run and the Browns needed it. #BrownsFilmBDN pic.twitter.com/EIsT58LmEa
â BrownsFilmBreakdown (@BrownsFilmBDN) December 17, 2018
On tap is a mouthwatering matchup against the Bengals, a defense thatâs allowed the third-most FanDuel points per touch, the second-most touchdowns, and the second-most yards per game to running backs. His price has crept into territory usually reserved for elite backs. And he doesnât have a full monopoly on the backfield thanks to Duke Johnson Jrâs weekly 40% snap share as the receiving back. But Chubb could easily pay off his salary with a pair of touchdownsâan upside the Bengals provide to most RB1s. Neither of these teams have anything to play for, but the Browns, assuming rational coaching, would be wise to keep their foot on the gas and continue to evaluate their assumed franchise quarterback. Likewise, Chubb is in no danger of losing playing time as a matter of precaution. Pencil him in for another 100-yard performance and a decent chance of finding the end zone for the 11th time this season.
RB: Marlon Mack - $7,000
Entering Week 15, the Cowboys boasted the best run defense in the NFLâone that held every running back below 100 rushing yards except Chris Carson back in Week 3. Mack carved this impressive unit up with 139 yards on 27 carries and two touchdowns. Up next is a home date with a Giantsâ squad that is still likely out of breath after chasing around Derrick Henry all week. He smashed them with 170 yards and two scores on 33 carries. His performance vibes with the Giants season-long numbers. Theyâve been routinely gashed by running backs, having allowed the eighth-most rushing yards and the sixth-most total touchdowns.
This is a great spot for Mack, even though he doesnât have total control of the backfield. Nyheim Hines has carved out the pass-catching role and will continue to see a decent snap count (around 40%). But Mack is the traditional back that the Giants have struggled against all season and he should continue his reign as the main runner and goal-line option. The Colts are healthy 9.5-favorites and wonât have any trouble cruising to a victory at home against a bad defense and a mediocre offense, providing Mack with a positive game script and multi-touchdown upside.
RB: Elijah McGuire - $5,700
Cashing lineups in GPPs this year generally requires paying up for the top running backs who offer the perfect combination of volume and talent. McGuire doesnât necessarily promise either, but he did look good against a tough Texans defense last week while handling 75% of snaps. He now has back-to-back weeks of at least 20 touches and four targets. If he gets a similar share of snaps and volume this week, he should return a decent box score, even against a Packersâ defense that has been tough on backs this season. Theyâve allowed only 20.8 FanDuel points per game, which ranks 21st. That number has been suppressed by the fact that theyâve permitted only 13 touchdowns, which is right about league average. But Football Outsiders ranks them 25th against the run per their DVOA metric, and 28th in adjusted line yards, suggesting this matchup might actually be better than past fantasy numbers imply.
More concerning than the matchup is Trenton Cannonâs presence. He offers the Jets the speedy dynamic that McGuire lacks, and could absorb double-digit touches again (seven carries, three catches last week). But heâs unlikely to suddenly become the RB1, especially considering his small stature. With Isaiah Crowell on the shelf for the remainder of the season, and with Sam Darnold playing some of his best football since regaining starter duties, McGuire profiles as a solid tournament play who wonât be removed by game scripts regardless of what the scoreboard says. Believe it or not, as of Wednesday, the Jets and Packers is a pickâem game according to Vegas, with some sportsbooks favoring the Jets by a point, which at least suggests we could be in for a competitive and potentially high-scoring game. Should Aaron Rodgers turn in a vintage performance against the Jetsâ vulnerable defense, McGuire will benefit even more so as a receiver, securing his floor and raising his ceiling.
WR: DeAndre Hopkins - $8,900
Squad got me like Paul in the finals pic.twitter.com/uD5RTYlf2Z
â Deandre Hopkins (@DeAndreHopkins) December 18, 2018
There arenât many words to spill here other than âmake sure he doesnât suffer a setback in practice before committing.â Hopkins will be one of the most popular plays on the slate and heâs worthy of his exposure. The Eagles have allowed the most yards and the second-most FanDuel points to wide receivers. Conversely, Hopkins has logged the fourth-most yards, and third-most FanDuel points among wide receivers. Donât go into Sunday without multiple Watson/Hopkins stacks.
WR: Davante Adams - $8,500 (if Rodgers plays)
One of the only bright spots of the Packers entire season, Adams enters Week 16 as fantasyâs highest-scoring wide receiver. He took on a tough defense last week and parlayed 13 targets into eight catches for 119 yards. He failed to score a touchdown but should have plenty of opportunities against the Jets, who have allowed the most FanDuel points per game to receivers this year. They were most recently embarrassed by Hopkinsâ box score of 10 catches for 170 yards and two touchdownsâmarking the 10th time a receiver has surpassed 100 yards against this secondary. The only thing that might prevent him from taking advantage of this matchup is Rodgers getting shut down for the season. As of Wednesday, head coach Joe Philbin is mum on the subject. In the event Rodgers sits, all bets are off on this offense. In that case, pivoting to the Jetsâ defense ($3,200) makes sense against DeShone Kizer, who threw 22 interceptions and took 38 sacks as a member of the Browns last year.
WR: Adam Thielen - $7,600
With only 12 catches for 117 yards and one touchdown over his last three games, it feels like an eternity since Thielen was once the most dominant receiver of the 2018 NFL season. The Vikings quickly looked to establish the run last week and did so effectively against the Dolphins, which translated into him drawing only two targetsâeasily his lowest total of the year. Perhaps thatâs the new way for the Vikings, who still have an outside chance of making the playoffs.
But a Lionsâ run defense that has improved with the addition of Damon Harrison will give the Vikingsâ rushing attack a hard time in Detroit. The Lions were beat up by Todd Gurley in Week 13, but have otherwise yielded poor results for opposing rushers down the stretch and should naturally funnel a pass-heavy situation for Minnesota, which obviously bodes well for Thielen. And even if they still go run-heavy, he should have no trouble making good on whatever volume he gets thanks to a dream matchup against a secondary thatâs allowed the second-most yards to slot receivers. Note, however, that he managed only 22 yards and one score against this unit in Week 9. But he did see seven targets and should be in line for a decent amount of volume in a must-win game.
Isaiah McKenzie - $5,600
Slot Machine McKenzie was carted off the field after a non-contact injury last week and, as it usually goes with carts, most of us thought his day was over, if not his season. But he jogged back onto the field a little later and told reporters after the game that he slightly twisted his ankle and the injury wasnât serious. Assuming he doesnât suffer any setbacks this week, he gets a superb matchup against a secondary that has been wasted by slot receivers nearly every week. Only three teams have allowed more yards to the slot, and only one has allowed more touchdowns.
The Patriots held the Steelersâ passing attack in check last week, so perhaps theyâve turned the corner. And given the ineptitude of the Billsâ overall offense, itâs certainly fair to question McKenzieâs GPP viability. But Buffalo should embrace the spoiler role and do their best to hand the Patriots their second loss in a row, reducing their odds of earning a first-round bye for the playoffs. To make that happen, Buffalo needs a dynamic game plan that features the dual-threat skill set of McKenzie, who has drawn seven targets in each of their last two games. Heâll blow up this week if he sees that same amount of volume again, especially if Robert Foster draws coverage from Stephon Gilmore, and his price makes paying up for guys like Hopkins and Adams (if Rodgers plays) possible.
TE: Evan Engram - $5,700
For all of the Coltsâ strengths on defense, taking care of athletic tight ends is not one of them. Theyâve allowed the most receiving yards to the position and the highest catch rate of all teams. Last week, Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz combined for seven catches and 68 yards, the Texansâ tight ends combined for 11 catches and 151 yards the week before last, and in Week 11, four Titansâ tight ends combined for 12 catches and 123 yards. Those efforts all include multiple players, so perhaps itâll be easier for them to key on Engram, especially if Odell Beckham misses another game, but Engram has the skill set to take advantage of matchups like these. Heâs finally earned the role he deserves and now has at least 66 yards in each of his three last games, and 17 targets over the last two with Beckham sidelined. Those are numbers worth chasing for any of your lineups that donât include Barkley.
TE: David Njoku - $5,300
In a matchup too good to go wrong, Njoku has everything working in his favor this week. He gets the Bengals defense, which has provided the second-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends, the fourth-highest catch rate, nine touchdowns (tied for the most with two other teams), and the third-most receptions. Unfortunately, he hasnât produced despite an offense thatâs been good when facing soft defenses. With only 504 yards and three touchdowns on the season, heâs difficult to trust even in a situation that favors players of his skill set. But his salary makes a lot of things possible and doesnât ask much of his shrinking ceiling. His best game of the season happened to come against this same Bengalsâ defense back in Week 12 when he caught all five of his targets for 63 yards and a touchdown (all in the first half). Those numbers are safe to chase in a rematch at Cleveland.
Defenses
Los Angeles Rams - $4,900
If you can afford them, the Rams are worth every penny and make sense as the chalk defense. Theyâre on the road, but theyâll take on an offense that is a bottom-feeder in nearly every stat category that gauges offensive quality. They made the Falconsâ push-around defense look like the 2017 Jaguars last week by turning the ball over three times and permitting six sacks. Conversely, you can bet that the Rams are eager to right the ship after a stunning home-upset against the Eagles pushed them further away from securing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. As 14-point favorites, itâs worth reserving salary for the Ramsâ defense.
Atlanta Falcons - $3,400
The Falcons made an appearance in this space last week with a note that youâd need them to luck into a defensive score and a few sacksâtwo things theyâve not provided all season. They logged seven sacks, three turnovers, scored a touchdown and finished as the weekâs highest-scoring defense. Now they get a busted Panthers unit that has shut down Newton for the season and will throw out Taylor Heinicke as his replacementâa quarterback that went undrafted and has attempted five passes in the NFL. To be fair to Heinicke, he was an excellent college player in the FCS and won the Walter Payton Award after throwing for over 5,000 yards and scoring 55 total touchdowns (11 rushing) in 2012. So, heâs not totally incapable of taking advantage of the Falconsâ soft secondary. But itâs worth wondering if the Panthersâ will also limit playing time of important starters like D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey, effectively limiting Heinickeâs ceiling. He makes for an interesting contrarian option for $6,000, but the Falconsâ defense is the obvious play.
Indianapolis Colts - $4,500
After shutting out the Cowboys and logging three sacks in the process, the Colts received a significant bump in salary ahead of their home tilt against the Giants. That alone should push us away since, while theyâre a good defense, theyâre not an elite unit known for generating bundles of fantasy points. But Eli Manning is always a good bet for interceptions, and if Beckham misses this game, the Giants will struggle again (the Cowboys werenât the only NFC East team to get shutout last week). Theyâve allowed the fourth-most sacks of all teams, while the Coltsâ defense has generated the 12th-most. Donât overthink this one. Stack Mack with his defense if Beckham is out:
Over the last two years, the #Giants have averaged 21.6 points per game with Odell Beckham in the lineup versus 14.8 points without OBJ.
â Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) December 19, 2018
Itâs borderline unprecedented for a skill-position player to have a near 7-point impact over a sizable sample size (14 missed games).
Contrarian Candidates
Similar to sleepers, contrarian players are those the crowd has completely mispriced and undervalued. In some cases, itâs a player coming off an injury or facing a difficult matchup but still carries a heavy price tag. In other cases, it could be a player that has struggled recently and therefore deemed untrustworthy. In all cases, guard your exposure to players listed in this section but get them in at least a few lineups.
QB: Mitchell Trubisky - $7,900
After an awful performance against the Rams, Trubisky rebounded last week by completing over 71% of his passes for 235 yards and two touchdowns. Heâll have a great opportunity to build on his sophomore rĂ©sumĂ© against a 49ersâ secondary thatâs allowed the second-most touchdowns and has logged the fewest interceptions of all teams. The Bears have already clinched the NFC North, so itâs not a game that means much. But they could improve their seeding and still have a shot to secure a first-round bye. Thatâs enough motivation for head coach Matt Nagy draw up an explosive game plan and take advantage of the matchup in front of them.
Trubisky, of course, leads that charge and itâs worth noting that, despite turning in some duds, he enters Week 16 as the seventh highest scoring quarterback in FanDuel points per game. On the season, he has the fifth-most rushing yards and the 13th-most total touchdowns despite missing a few games (and playing awful in a few others). Against a cupcake secondary and with rushing-upside floating his floor, he makes for a solid GPP pivot away from other highly touted quarterbacks in his price range.
RB: Matt Breida - $6,000
Breida returned from a one-week absence and immediately dominated snap counts with a healthy 73% share, and handled 22 touches for 96 yards in the process. He has a seemingly brutal matchup this week but the Bears have shown some kinks in their armor lately. Jamaal Williams managed 17.7 FanDuel points thanks to a rushing score and four catches for 44 yards last week. They shutdown Gurley in that strange Week 14 game during which both offenses looked terrible, but in Week 13, LeGarrette Blount managed 22.8 FanDuel points thanks to a pair of touchdowns, and Kerryon Johnson managed 21.9 points on the back of 20 touches and two scores in Week 10. These stats are cherry-picked, of course. The Bearsâ season-long numbers against running backs rank near the top in nearly every category. Still, Breida provides unquestioned talent so long as heâs healthy. We always need to pinpoint games that could provide underrated assets and potential shootouts. This one profiles as such and it canât happen if Breida fails to produce. If youâre the type that runs multiple lineups, be sure to include the guy that was a chalk-play earlier this season and now provides a discount in both salary and ownership.
WR: Taylor Gabriel - $5,000
Doubling down on the above Trubisky take (and tripling down on the 49ers/Bears tilt), Gabriel is in a sneaky spot to make good on his bottom-shelf salary. Up until last week, he was a solid bet for seven or more targets and has the speed to turn any one of those targets into a big play. Heâs now tied for the team lead in targets with 86 and ranks third in receiving yards. The 49ers, as mentioned, field a vulnerable secondary thatâs allowed the most touchdowns and fourth-most FanDuel points per target, despite allowing the 13th-fewest receptions. With Richard Sherman likely to shadow Allen Robinson, it stands to reason that Trubisky will look underneath to find options that can quickly gain separation. Gabriel happens to rank 14th among wide receivers in average yards of separation per Next Gen Stats. You should also consider Tarik Cohen in this spot if you choose not to roster the low-floor of Gabriel. San Francisco has allowed the fourth-most receptions and eighth-most receiving yards to running backs. One of these players, along with Trubisky, could be the key to unlocking monster profits come Sunday.
TE: Blake Jarwin - $4,700
Jarwin manned 62% of snaps last week and has drawn 14 targets over the Cowboys last two games. He gets a great matchup against the Buccaneers, who have allowed the fifth-most yards and seventh-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends. That last stat would look a lot better if they could stop running backs from scoring (21 total touchdowns allowed to backs, most in the NFL). His situation looks especially good with over-the-middle man Cole Beasley banged up, which would naturally feed more looks his way should Beasley sit. Jarwin doesnât own a monopoly on the Cowboysâ tight end position, but in their last five games, he has run 111 receiving routes (compared to Dalton Schultzâs 58), and 85 in his last threeâ13th most among tight ends. Heâs the (nearly) site-minimum player of the week despite a nasty floor and an upside thatâs manufactured by a dreamy matchup. If you need salary space and can stomach the risk, heâs a solid large-field tournament dart, especially for those determined to roster Prescott.