As sports gambling becomes more mainstream, more and more people are looking for insight on what games to bet on and what lines to take. One approach is to look at the ‘popular’ lines, where people follow the crowd and bet on the games that everyone else is betting. This ‘Go with the Flow’ mentality can provide a sense of security because if a lot of other people are doing it, there must be something there.
But sometimes the public can have it wrong. Sometimes the flow of the water leads to a waterfall. Sometimes, it’s better to go against the flow – or maybe even avoid the flow completely. In this series, we’ll look at some of those situations, and give you our thoughts behind why it might be good to fade the public trend and look for other opportunities.
This week has a lot of close games. 10 of the remaining 14 games have spreads where the current Vegas line is -3.5 or lower. Yet the public has some clear favorites this week and that presents some unique opportunities for people looking to go against the trend.
BUFFALO BILLS AT HOUSTON TEXANS
Public Trend – 62% of the public bets favor Buffalo
Houston is banged up. Deshawn Watson was knocked around pretty hard against the Cowboys last weekend and he has been limited in practice all week. Lamar Miller suited up for the game, but was only available in case of emergencies and did not play a snap. Will Fuller is nursing a hamstring injury and Keke Coutee was a game time decision going into the Dallas game. Both have partially practiced this week. Buffalo was an underdog at home last week, but their defense fired up and they beat the Titans with last minute field goal. They are 2-3 against the spread this season, and the line has moved far enough to give them 10 points in this game.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
Even with a 10 point spot in this game, this is still the Buffalo Bills that we’re talking about here. They’re averaging just over 12 points per game while their defense is allowing over 23 points per game. The Buffalo passing game ranks dead last in the NFL with an average of only 121 yards per game and they have 7 interceptions against just 2 passing touchdowns. What little offense they have is generated on the ground and the Texans have the 8th best rushing defense in the league, allowing just 95 yards per game and only 1 rushing touchdown all season. They held Ezekiel Elliott to just 54 rushing yards on 20 carries last week. Watson and Miller both practiced this week and are expected to play. The Buffalo passing defense is stout, giving up only 234 yards per game, but they have allowed eight passing touchdowns and have only three interceptions. Watson has thrown for 375 or more yards in each of the last three games and is averaging over 324 yards per game for the season. If the Buffalo pass defense can’t get to Watson, it should be no problem for the Texans to cover the big spread at home.
CAROLINA PANTHERS AT WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Photos provided by Imagn Images
