As sports gambling becomes more mainstream, more and more people are looking for insight on what games to bet on and what lines to take. One approach is to look at the ‘popular’ lines, where people follow the crowd and bet on the games that everyone else is betting. This ‘Go with the Flow’ mentality can provide a sense of security because if a lot of other people are doing it, there must be something there.
But sometimes the public can have it wrong. Sometimes the flow of the water actually leads to a waterfall. Sometimes, it’s better to go against the flow – or maybe even avoid the flow completely. In this series, we’ll look at some of those situations, and give you our thoughts behind why it might be good to fade the public trend, and look for other opportunities.
This week we see a lot of money heading toward the favorites, and depending on the sites you look at, teams like Baltimore, Denver and the Rams could all be pushing 80% of the action. The consensus picks seem to swing heavily toward the favorites as well and you’re going to need a strong stomach if you want to buck that trend.
BALTIMORE RAVENS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS
Public Trend – 65% of the public bets favor Baltimore
The Ravens are a heavy public favorite this week with their strong win against the Steelers on the road last week. The Ravens have the second-best defense in the league, allowing only 275 yards per game total. Cleveland has a young offense with a rookie quarterback who was thrown into the deep end of the pool two weeks ago. Although they played tough on the road in LA, Cleveland gave up 45 points to the Raiders, including 21 in the 4th quarter which ultimately cost them the game.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
The Browns broke their losing streak the last time they were in Cleveland, and the whole city suddenly boarded the Baker Mayfield train. Against the Ravens this week, the home crowd will be out in force, and having a stadium behind them should give the Browns a big confidence boost. Cleveland’s pass defense isn’t bad, ranked 10th in the NFL allowing only 278 yards per game through the air. They’ve given up seven touchdowns but also have seven interceptions. The Browns lead the league in total rushing yards (yes you read that right) averaging almost 153 yards per game. Baltimore has a stout run defense, but if the Browns can control the clock, this game is going to be close.
The Vegas line started even but as the money floods to the Baltimore side, the line has moved to Cleveland +3. Home underdogs have been doing well these last few weeks and the Browns are 2-0 at home against the spread. If Cleveland’s defense can avoid the late game fade that they did against Oakland, this game should be close.
DENVER BRONCOS AT NEW YORK JETS
Photos provided by Imagn Images
