As sports gambling becomes more mainstream, more and more people are looking for insight on what games to bet on and what lines to take. One approach is to look at the ‘popular’ lines, where people follow the crowd and bet on the games that everyone else is betting. This ‘Go with the Flow’ mentality can provide a sense of security because if a lot of other people are doing it, there must be something there.
But sometimes the public can have it wrong. Sometimes the flow of the water actually leads to a waterfall. Sometimes, it’s better to go against the flow – or maybe even avoid the flow completely. In this series, we’ll look at some of those situations, and give you our thoughts behind why it might be good to fade the public trend, and look for other opportunities.
The theme this week seems to home underdogs, and while historically ‘home dogs’ cover about 50% of the time, the public is very hot and heavy for a couple of the favorites. If last week taught us anything, it’s that this season has plenty of surprises and the favorites don’t always come out on top.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
Public Trend – 70% of the public bets favor Seattle
The Cardinals are still winless, and they have made the decision to give rookie quarterback Josh Rosen his first start. Their offense is ranked dead last in the NFL, averaging just 190 yards per game. They have scored just 20 points this season and are 21 points behind Dallas for the lowest PF totals in the league. The Seahawks are the 8th ranked passing defense in the league, allowing just 215 yards per game through the air. They are tied with Miami for a league-best seven interceptions so far this season.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
The Cardinals lead for most of the game against Chicago last week before the Bears narrowly pulled out a victory against a team that they were expected to beat by almost a touchdown. The Seahawks are 0-2 on the road and were beaten soundly in week 2 when the faced those same Bears in Chicago. Josh Rosen may be a rookie, but he can’t do much worse than Sam Bradford who has looked terrible through the first three games of the season. David Johnson showed signs of life last week and he’ll be facing a defense that gave up 138 yards from scrimmage to Ezekiel Elliott last week and 188 yards from scrimmage to the Denver backfield back in week 1. Larry Fitzgerald has been nursing a hamstring injury, but he was back at practice on Thursday and should play this weekend. That’s good news for a rookie QB who is going to need all the help he can get. If the crowd gets behind Rosen and the Cardinals get out to an early lead, they can lean on David Johnson and possible grind out a win or at least cover the spread at home.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT TENNESSEE TITANS
Photos provided by Imagn Images
