As sports gambling becomes more mainstream, more and more people are looking for insight on what games to bet on and what lines to take. One approach is to look at the ‘popular’ lines, where people follow the crowd and bet on the games that everyone else is betting. This ‘Go with the Flow’ mentality can provide a sense of security because if a lot of other people are doing it, there must be something there.
But sometimes the public can have it wrong. Sometimes the flow of the water actually leads to a waterfall. Sometimes, it’s better to go against the flow – or maybe even avoid the flow completely. In this series, we’ll look at some of those situations, and give you our thoughts behind why it might be good to fade the public trend, and look for other opportunities.
Things have settled down a bit in the NFL and we have a better understanding of who teams are and what they can do. The Vegas lines are not moving as much and the public money is flowing to the team that will ‘most likely’ win. Still, we do have some opportunities to explore this week.
CHICAGO BEARS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
Public Trend – 64% of the public bets favor Chicago
The Cardinals have scored just six points total in the first two games. Last week against the Rams, they didn’t make it across the 50 yard line until the second to last play of the game. The Cardinals have just 350 total offensive yards in that span as well. The Chicago defense is playing lights out, and they have 10 sacks (#1 in the NFL) in the first two games. They are number eight in the league in total yards allowed (just 323 yards / game), have forced five fumbles and have two defensive touchdowns in two weeks. The Cardinals could be facing another shutout this week.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
Chicago’s offense has struggled, and they are only posting 282 yards per game (28th in the NFL). They’re playing on the road after a tough Monday night game and have shown streaks where their offense disappears. Despite building big leads against Green Bay and Seattle, they let down in the second half and nearly lost both games. Despite starting much of last season, Mitchell Trubisky has just nine touchdown passes in 14 games, and he looks less polished than Baker Mayfield did last night for Cleveland. The Cardinals still have a lot of talent in guys like David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. They are not as bad as their current offensive production might indicate, and they are sure to get some points in the 4th quarter, even if Chicago has the lead.
The Vegas line continues to move in Arizona’s favor, but the over/under stays the same. With just 38 total points expected, Vegas predicts that this game is going to be low scoring, and 17 points could be enough to win this one. The Cardinals are trying to show some signs of life, and any scoring from them in this game could go very badly for Chicago.
NEW ENGLAD AT DETROIT LIONS
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