As sports gambling becomes more mainstream, more and more people are looking for insight on what games to bet on and what lines to take. One approach is to look at the ‘popular’ lines, where people follow the crowd and bet on the games that everyone else is betting. This ‘Go with the Flow’ mentality can provide a sense of security because if a lot of other people are doing it, there must be something there.
But sometimes the public can have it wrong. Sometimes the flow of the water actually leads to a waterfall. Sometimes, it’s better to go against the flow – or maybe even avoid the flow completely. In this series, we’ll look at some of those situations, and give you our thoughts behind why it might be good to fade the public trend, and look for other opportunities.
The Theme for this week is overreaction. A lot of the betting trends this week reflect what people saw last weekend, not considering that it was just the first week of the season.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Public Trend – 67% of the public bets favor Kansas City
The Steelers are without LeVeon Bell, probably for a good chunk of the season. Despite being a 3.5-point favorite against a team that didn’t win a game in 2017, the Steelers only managed a tie against a hated division rival. Even worse, they completely collapsed in the 4th quarter, giving up 14 points in the final seven minutes of regulation, allowing the Browns to tie it up. Kansas City scored three touchdowns in the second half last week against a decent San Diego team, winning the game by 10 points despite being a 3.5-point underdog at the start. Patrick Mahomes put up 256 yards passing and four passing TDS with no interceptions in his first start, and the Chiefs quickly showed they will be a contender again this season.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
The shock of being without Bell has worn off for Pittsburgh. James Conner put up almost 200 yards from scrimmage in relief and Ben Roethlisberger had 335 yards passing in the loss. Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster combined for 212 receiving yards and a TD. Granted they had the entire overtime period to pad their stats, but the Steelers played a decent game given all the distractions. Now they’re at home and they are embarrassed having let the Browns come back and take away the win from them. The Chiefs looked great in their home opener, but now they’re on the road in a hostile environment against a team that will be ready for them. They are primed for a let down and the Steelers are primed for a bounce-back.
The Vegas line opened at -4.5 for Pittsburgh and moved up to -5.5 before sliding back to -4.5 where it currently sits. The Over/Under however, has steadily climbed from 49.5 to 53.5. Despite Vegas expecting this game to be an even bigger shoot-out, the line remains the Steelers as the favorite. The weather for this game looks to be high 70’s and no rain – perfect weather for an upset.
DETROIT LIONS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Photos provided by Imagn Images
