As sports gambling becomes more mainstream, more and more people are looking for insight on what games to bet on and what lines to take. One approach is to look at the ‘popular’ lines, where people follow the crowd and bet on the games that everyone else is betting. This ‘Go with the Flow’ mentality can provide a sense of security because if a lot of other people are doing it, there must be something there.
But sometimes the public can have it wrong. Sometimes the flow of the water actually leads to a waterfall. Sometimes, it’s better to go against the flow – or maybe even avoid the flow completely. In this series, we’ll look at some of those situations, and give you our thoughts behind why it might be good to fade the public trend, and look for other opportunities.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS
Public Trend – 62% of the public bets favor Pittsburgh
The Steelers are one of the NFL’s most popular teams. No matter where they go, there are always plenty of Steeler fans in the crowd. They were 13-3 last season, 7-1 on the road and 6-0 in their division. Marquee players like Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown have been first round picks in many fantasy drafts and even casual NFL fans know ‘Big Ben Roethlisberger’. They are facing Cleveland, a team that went 0-16 last year, averaging just over 14 points per game compared to the Steelers who averaged more than 25. The Cleveland offense is completely rebuilt and key starters Tyrod Taylor, Carlos Hyde and Jarvis Landry were on different teams last season.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
By now, you’ve probably heard that the Steelers will probably be without Le’Veon Bell for this game. Bell’s contract dispute has escalated into a public standoff and even Bell’s teammates are now questioning his commitment to the team. It’s been a huge distraction and will overshadow the game this weekend. Backup James Conner has just 32 regular season carries for his career and he’s facing a tough Cleveland run defense that allowed just 3.35 yards per carry in 2017. The Browns are out to prove that they are not the same 0-16 team from last year. Their big offensive changes have been major upgrades at most positions. They are playing at home with something to prove against a division rival who has basically treated them like a doormat for the last several years. The weather forecast for the game calls for 18 MPH winds and light, steady rain for most of the game, with temperatures in the 60s.
The Vegas line opened at +6.5 in favor of Pittsburgh but has moved down to 4. The over-under has also dropped from 47 to 44. There’s still a ton of love going Pittsburgh’s way, but do not be surprised if the Browns come out fired up and break their losing streak against a distracted Steeler team in a low-scoring, lousy-weather opener.
CINCINNATTI BENGALS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Photos provided by Imagn Images
