Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
FanDuel: Brees ($8,500) + Thomas ($8,300) = $16,800
DraftKings: Brees ($6,600) + Thomas ($8,600) = $15,200
Facing the No. 29 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 28 ranked pass defense allowing 274.4 yards per game
Game Total - 55.5
Implied Totals - Saints at 32 points and Buccaneers at 24 points
Game Line - New Orleans Saints -8
The New Orleans Saints travel to Florida to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday in a Week 14 NFC South matchup. This game is expected to be the highest scoring game of the week as it has the highest game total. The implied number has the Saints scoring more than four touchdowns in this game, and Brees and company should get back on track after a poor performance last week versus Dallas.
Brees is still one of the game’s elite quarterbacks, and he is having an MVP-type season in 2018. Brees has thrown for 30 scores to go with only three interceptions, and he has scored three rushing touchdowns through 12 games.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit the Buccaneers for an 8.6-yard average which is second-worst in the NFL. The Buccaneers have given up 49 passing plays of 20-plus yards and only two teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays. The Buccaneers have also yielded 28 scores through the air, and only one team has given up more.
The implied numbers are pushing a game script that has each team scoring enough points to force the other team to keep throwing and scoring, and there is shootout potential in this matchup. Brees and the Saints passing attack have a great chance to be extremely productive in this game.
Thomas is easily the first option in the Saints passing attack, having been targeted 105 times in 2018, including 26 targets in the past four games. He has caught 21 passes in that span for 240 yards, and he has caught three touchdowns in that span of games. Not that he was targeted 17 times versus Tampa Bay in Week 1, hauling in 16 passes for 180 yards and a score.
The Saints passing game should excel against the Buccaneers as they have been very vulnerable against the pass throughout the entire season. Also, the game script is favorable for plenty of volume which will allow Brees and Thomas to be productive at a high level making this an intriguing stack for GPP play in Week 14.
Note that Thomas is banged up with a knee injury and is questionable for the game on Sunday. Monitor his status throughout the week and make sure he gets a practice in before rostering him.
Pivot: Wide receiver TreQuan Smith ($5,700 at FanDuel and $4,500 at DraftKings) is an intriguing pivot from Thomas. Rostering Smith saves salary and gets you a piece of this high-scoring game while offering a bit of variance, and he has a chance to outperform his salary in this matchup which makes him a valuable GPP play in Week 14.
Ben Roethlisberger + Antonio Brown
FanDuel: Roethlisberger ($8,600) + Brown ($8,800) = $17,400
DraftKings: Roethlisberger ($6,800) + Brown ($9,000) = $15,800
Facing the No. 32 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 14 ranked pass defense allowing 243.3 yards per game
Game Total - 51.5
Implied Totals - Steelers at 31 points and Raiders at 20.5 points
Game Line - Pittsburgh Steelers -11
The Pittsburgh Steelers are on the road against the Oakland Raiders on Sunday for an AFC matchup in Week 134. This game is expected to be a high-scoring affair as it has the fourth-highest total of the week. The implied number has the Steelers scoring four-plus touchdowns, and they should have their way with the Raiders with this week.
Roethlisberger has thrown for 26 scores and 13 interceptions to go along with 3945 yards in 2018 while adding three rushing touchdowns to his numbers. The Steelers passing offense enters this struggling a touch, but this matchup is the tonic they need to get things straightened out moving forward.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit the Raiders for an 8.7-yard average which is worst in the NFL. The
Raiders have given up 46 passing plays of 20-plus yards, and only seven teams across the league have given up more. They have also surrendered 12 passing plays of 40-plus yards and no team in the NFL allows more of these types of plays. The Raiders have also yielded 29 scores through the air which is most in the NFL.
Brown is an incredibly dangerous weapon as he can make plays all over the field, and he is a tremendous vertical threat capable of taking the top off the defense in a flash. Simply put, he is a tremendous mismatch against almost any NFL cornerback, and he draws an extremely favorable matchup against Raiders Gareon Conley in Week 14.
Brown has been targeted 45 has been times over the past four games. He has caught 30 passes for 434 yards and scored three touchdowns over that span. Look for Brown’s hot play to continue against the Raiders this week.
Everything lines up this week for the Browns passing attack in this contest, and Brown and Roethlisberger make for a great stack for GPP play in Week 14.
Pivot: Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster ($7,500 at FanDuel and $8,200 at DraftKings) is also a potent playmaker, and he draws a very favorable matchup versus Raiders outside corner Daryl Worley. Smith-Schuster has been targeted 41 times in his past four games, so he sees enough target volume to warrant consideration.
FanDuel: Rodgers ($8,100) + Adams ($8,700) = $16,800
DraftKings: Rodgers ($6,000) + Adams ($8,400) = $14,400
Facing the No. 31 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 25 ranked pass defense allowing 263.5 yards per game
Game Total - 49
Implied Totals - Packers at 27 points and Falcons at 22 points
Game Line - Green Bay Packers -5.5
The Green Bay Packers take on the Atlanta Falcons at home on Sunday in an NFC matchup in Week 14. This contest has a chance to be a high-scoring game as it has the fifth-highest total of the week, and the Packers are coming into this game after firing their head coach a week ago. Is a statement game coming from Rodgers and the Packers in Week 14?
Rodgers is an elite NFL quarterback, and he is capable of making plays in and out of the pocket. He has thrown 21 touchdowns and only one interception in 2018, but the Packers offense has struggled of late. This matchup comes at a great time for the Packers as they should be able to have their way with the Falcons in this matchup.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit the Falcons for a 7.8-yard average, and only seven teams in the NFL allow a higher average. The Falcons have allowed 25 scores through the air in 2018, and only six teams have allowed more in 2018. Opposing quarterbacks have generated a quarterback rating of 103.2 against Atlanta which is fifth-worst in the NFL.
The game script calls for enough points from the Falcons to push Rodgers to keep throwing the ball down the field. Rodgers has every chanced to be extremely productive on Sunday against a beatable Falcons secondary.
Adams is easily the first option in the Packers passing game as he has been targeted 127 times this season so far. He has been targeted 40 times in the past four games, catching 27 passes for 385 yards and four scores over that span. There is plenty of upside in this stack as the Packers passing attack should have a very strong outing in Week 14.
Pivot: Tight end Jimmy Graham ($5,600 at FanDuel and $4,400 at DraftKings) is an intriguing option as a red zone weapon for Rodgers. He was targeted 11 times by Rodgers last week, but he is questionable for Week 14 with thumb and knee injuries. Monitor his status and make sure he gets a full practice in before making a choice to roster him.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
FanDuel: Rivers ($8,300) + Allen ($7,900) = $16,200
DraftKings: Rivers ($6,500) + Allen ($7,400) = $13,900
Facing the No. 27 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 31 ranked pass defense allowing 279.8 yards per game
Game Total - 47.5
Implied Totals - Chargers at 31 points and Bengals at 17 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Chargers -14
The Los Angeles Chargers are at home against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday for an AFC matchup in Week 14. This game is not expected to be all that high scoring, but the Chargers implied number has them scoring four-plus touchdowns in this contest. Rivers has a chance to have the best year of his long career from a passing touchdowns outlook as he is playing excellent football in 2018.
Rivers has thrown for 28 scores and six interceptions to go along with 3418 yards in his first 12 games in 2018. Rivers has an outstanding matchup in Week 14, and he should be considered for GPP play this week, but there is risk in starting the passing game weapons in this matchup because of the lack of a push that the Bengals offense will give to the Chargers.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit the Bengals for an 8.0-yard average which is sixth-worst in the NFL. The
Bengals have given up 48 passing plays of 20-plus yards, and only four teams across the league have given up more. They have also surrendered eight passing plays of 40-plus yards and only eight teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays. The Raiders have also yielded 26 scores through the air, and only four teams have given up more.
Allen is an incredible route runner capable of creating separation all over the field. He is a mismatch problem, and he draws an extremely favorable matchup against Bengals slot corner Darqueze Dennard in Week 14.
Allen has become a huge part of the Chargers offense since the Week 8 bye. Allen has been targeted 47 has been times over the past four games. He has caught 36 passes for 366 yards over that span, and he has scored four touchdowns over that span (one in each of those games).
The Bengals are going to struggle to contain Allen, and he and Rivers make for an outstanding stack for GPP play in Week 14.
Pivot: Wide receivers Mike Williams ($6,000 at FanDuel and $3,900 at DraftKings) and Tyrell Williams ($5,800 at FanDuel and $3,900 at DraftKings) are both super intriguing options that come at a reduced price this week. You are chasing touchdowns if you are playing either one, but there are touchdowns to be had in this game.
Baker Mayfield + Jarvis Landry
FanDuel: Mayfield ($7,500) + Landry ($5,800) = $13,300
DraftKings: Mayfield ($5,800) + Landry ($5,800) = $11,600
Facing the No. 28 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 22 allowing ranked pass defense 256.8 yards per game
Game Total - 47
Implied Totals - Browns at 23 points and Panthers at 24 points
Game Line - Cleveland Browns +1.5
The Cleveland Browns are at home on Sunday to take on the Carolina Panthers in a Week 14 clash. This game has the eighth-highest total of the week at 47 points, and the Browns implied number has them only scoring 23 points in this game, and that is where all the risk lies regarding this stack. However, there is significant value in finding players that play in offenses that go over their projected point total, and that is exactly what the Browns should be able to do in this game.
Mayfield had been playing extremely well entering the Browns matchup against Houston last week, but he had a rough outing, throwing only one touchdown to go with three interceptions. The Panthers matchup comes at a good time for Mayfield as they are struggling to defend the pass and are vulnerable through the air.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit the Panthers for a 7.7-yard average, and only 11 teams in the NFL allow a higher average. The Lions have given up 43 passing plays of 20-plus yards and only 12 teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays. The Lions have given up eight passing plays of 40-plus yards and only eight teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays.
The Panthers have allowed 27 scores through the air in 2018 which is third-worst in the NFL. Mayfield is going to throw touchdowns in this game, and his upside is tied directly to the Panthers ability to score and push the Browns passing game. Landry draws a favorable matchup against Panthers slot cornerback Captain Munnerlyn this week.
Munnerlyn lacks the change of direction ability to stay with Landry, and the Panthers have struggled to defend the middle of the field from slot-type options in the past several games. Slot receivers have had their way with the Panthers throughout this season. Note that they have surrendered 33 catches for 319 yards and three scores to slot receivers over the past six games. They have allowed at least five catches in all but one game over that span.
Landry was targeted nine times last week in a pass-heavy script as the Browns were down to the Texans and we could see similar volume to Landry this week with the Panthers pushing the Browns offense. Landry could be in line for a big game against a very vulnerable Panthers secondary.
Again, this stack is very dependent on how much the Panthers can push Mayfield to throw the ball and ultimately score enough points to get the Browns to score more than the 23 points they are expected to score. While there is risk, there is also upside based on the way the Panthers have defended the slot. Landry’s path to GPP success is not tough to see in this matchup, and he is a very intriguing option in Week 14.
Pivot: Tight end David Njoku ($5,300 at FanDuel and $3,900 at DraftKings) is a great option at his price in Week 14. The Panthers are the league’s No. 31 ranked DVOA defense versus the tight end allowing 7.1 attempts and 61.2 yards per game to the position. Njoku is questionable, and you will want to monitor his status throughout the week.
RB/DST STACKS
Austin Ekeler + Los Angeles Chargers D/ST
FanDuel: Ekeler ($6,700) + Chargers ($4,600) = $11,300
DraftKings: Ekeler ($6,200) + Chargers ($3,500) = $9,700
Facing the No. 28 ranked DVOA run defense and the No. 32 ranked run defense allowing 153.3 yards per game
Game Total - 47.5
Implied Totals - Chargers at 31 points and Bengals at 17 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Chargers -14
The Los Angeles Chargers are at home to face the Cincinnati Bengals in a Week 13 AFC matchup. The Chargers are a huge 14-point home-favorite, and they are forecast to score four-plus touchdowns in this game. The running game will be relied on heavily, and Ekeler has a chance to shine in Week 13.
The Bengals defense is yielding 4.9 yards per carry, and only seven teams in the NFL allow a higher average. No team in the NFL has defended more runs than the 31.4 per game the Bengals have faced. The Bengals have surrendered 12 running plays that have gone for 20-plus yards, and only four teams in the NFL allow more.
They have also surrendered 16 touchdowns on the ground which is second-most in the NFL. The game script calls for a heavier than normal workload for the Chargers running backs, and Ekeler could be in line for a very big game as a runner and a receiver. Ekeler touched the ball 18 times last week against Pittsburgh but was not productive with those touches.
The Chargers will be able to generate pressure on Bengals quarterback Jeff Driskel, and that could lead to turnovers. Driskel is a young player with a big arm, and he will put the ball into dangerous spots which can lead to production for the Chargers defense.
Both Ekeler and the Chargers defense have outstanding matchups in Week 14, and both sides of this stack should perform well in GPP play in Week 14.
Pivot: Running back Justin Jackson ($4,500 at FanDuel and $3,800 at DraftKings) is a sneaky option in this excellent matchup. If the Chargers get up and start to grind out the clock in this contest, it will be Jackson likely leading the charge. He is a risky option as you are relying on the Chargers pulling Ekeler if they get up big, but there is huge upside because of Jackson’s price and ability to get to GPP value.
LeGarrette Blount + Detroit Lions D/ST
FanDuel: Blount ($5,600) + Lions ($4,200) = $9,800
DraftKings: Blount ($3,900) + Lions ($2,900) = $6,800
Facing the No. 21 ranked DVOA run defense and the No. 29 ranked run defense allowing 140.9 yards per game
Game Total - 40.5
Implied Totals - Lions at 21.5 points and Cardinals at 19 points
Game Line - Detroit Lions -2.5
The Detroit Lions travel to Arizona on Sunday to face the struggling Cardinals in a Week 14 NFC clash. The Lions are a 1.5-point road favorite, and this is expected to be a low-scoring game via the game total.
The Cardinals are allowing 4.5 yards per carry, and only 14 teams in the NFL allow a higher average. The Cardinals have surrendered 15 running plays that have gone for 20-plus yards, and only two teams in the NFL allow more of these types of runs. They have also given up 17 rushing touchdowns which are the most in the NFL in 2018.
The Lions have lost multiple offensive weapons this season to injury and a trade, and there is not much left on this roster. Blount should get a full workload in this game, and it is not tough to see him scoring a touchdown in this contest.
Blount has carried the ball 35 times in the two games that running back Kerryon Johnson has been out, and Johnson is on the doubtful side for this week although he is listed as questionable as of this writing. Blount is priced at a point where it is easy to see him getting to GPP value against the Cardinals.
The Lions will be able to apply pressure on Cardinals rookie quarterback Josh Rosen as the Cardinals are missing multiple members of their offensive line. Rosen has thrown 11 interceptions in the 10 games he has played, and as a young quarterback, he is prone to making mistakes with the ball.
The matchups are excellent for both Blount and the Lions defense, and each part of the stack should perform well in GPP play in Week 14.
