Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
NOTE: This article has been updated as of 9:00 PM EST on 12/1/18
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
FanDuel: Winston ($7,500) + Evans ($7,900) = $15,400
DraftKings: Winston ($6,500) + Evans ($8,100) = $14,600
Facing the No. 27 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 22 ranked pass defense allowing 260.1 yards per game
Game Total - 55
Implied Totals - Buccaneers at 26 points and Panthers at 29 points
Game Line - Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
The Tamp Bay Buccaneers are at home on Sunday as they bring the Carolina Panthers to town for a Week 13 NFC South matchup. This game is expected to be one of the higher scoring games of the week as it has the second-highest game total. The implied number has the Buccaneers scoring almost four touchdowns in this game, and Winston should be forced to keep throwing with the Panthers expected to score more than four touchdowns.
Winston and veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick have changed roles throughout the season as each has started games and been effective. Winston started last week’s game versus the San Francisco 49ers, playing very well leading the Buccaneers to a win.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit the Panthers for a 7.7-yard average, and only 10 teams in the NFL allow a higher average. The Panthers have given up 41 passing plays of 20-plus yards and only eight teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays. They have also surrendered seven passing that have gone for 40-plus yards which are tenth-most in the NFL. The Panthers have also yielded 25 scores through the air, and only one team has given up more.
Both offenses should score points here, and the implied numbers are pushing a game script that has each team scoring enough points to force the other team to keep throwing. There is great potential for Winston and the Buccaneers passing offense in this game.
Evans is easily the first option in the Buccaneers passing attack, and he is a vertical threat as well as a red zone weapon. Evans has been targeted 99 times in 2018, including 31 targets in the past four games. He has caught 16 passes in that span for 303 yards, and he has caught one touchdown in that span of games.
The Buccaneers passing game should excel against the Panthers as they have been very vulnerable against the pass. Also, the game script is extremely favorable for plenty of volume which will allow Winston and Evans to be productive at a high level making this an intriguing stack for GPP play in Week 13.
Pivot: Tight end Cameron Brate ($4,900 at FanDuel and $3,700 at DraftKings) jumped into a starting role last week with tight end O.J Howard on injured reserve, and he scored a touchdown in a featured role. The Panthers are the league’s No. 30 ranked DVOA pass defense versus the tight end allowing 7.2 attempts and 63.4 yards per game to the position. Brate should be able to exploit the Panthers in this matchup.
Patrick Mahomes II + Tyreek Hill
FanDuel: Mahomes ($9,500) + Hill ($8,400) = $17,900
DraftKings: Mahomes ($6,400) + Hill ($9,100) = $15,500
Facing the No. 30 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 22 ranked pass defense allowing 238.6 yards per game
Game Total - 55.5
Implied Totals - Chiefs at 35 points and Raiders at 20.5 points
Game Line - Kansas City Chiefs -15
The Kansas City Chiefs are on the road against the Oakland Raiders on Sunday for an AFC West matchup in Week 13. This game is expected to be a high-scoring affair as it has the highest total of the week. The implied number has the Chiefs scoring five touchdowns, and Mahomes comes into this game on a tear that has virtually lasted the entire season.
Mahomes has thrown for 37 scores and 10 interceptions to go along with 3628 yards in his first 10 games in 2018. The Chiefs offense is clicking on all cylinders, and that should continue this week. Mahomes has an excellent matchup in Week 13 and should be heavily considered for GPP play this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit the Raiders for an 8.8-yard average which is worst in the NFL. The
Raiders have given up 41 passing plays of 20-plus yards, and only eight teams across the league have given up more. They have also surrendered 12 passing plays of 40-plus yards and no team in the NFL allows more of these types of plays. The Raiders have also yielded 25 scores through the air, and only one team has given up more.
Hill is an incredibly dangerous weapon as the Chiefs are putting him into a position to make plays down the field. He is amazingly fast and can take the top off the defense in a flash, and Mahomes has hit him down the field consistently in 2018.
Hill has been targeted 33 has been times over the past four games. He has caught 24 passes for 471 yards over that span, and he has scored four touchdowns over that span (two in each of the past two games).
The Raiders cannot cover Hill as he draws an extremely favorable matchup against Raiders cornerback Gareon Conley. Everything lines up this week for the Chiefs passing attack, and Hill and Mahomes make for a great stack for GPP play in Week 13.
Pivot: Tight end Travis Kelce ($7,800 at FanDuel and $7,000 at DraftKings) is one of the game’s premier weapons at the tight end position. He is very tough to defend and is a player that can stretch the field and dominate in the red zone. If the Raiders give significant help to stopping Hill, it opens the door for a big day for Kelce against the league’s last-ranked DVOA defense versus the tight end.
If you want to pivot away from the crowd, rostering wide receiver Sammy Watkins ($6,000 at FanDuel and $5,400 at DraftKings) is a good way to go. Hill is going to try and get vertical which leaves other areas of the field open and exploitable. Watkins’ price is reasonable and allows your squad a piece of a very high scoring game while giving it variance and salary flexibility.
Edit: Watkins missed practice on Friday and is out for this week. If you are looking to keep a piece of this game while fading Hill then consider wide receiver Chris Conley ($4,500 at FanDuel and $3,800 at DraftKings) as he will see an increased role this week in what is expected to be a shootout. Note that Conley was targeted eight times last week with Watkins ailing, catching seven passes for 74 yards and two scores.
Cam Newton + D.J. Moore
FanDuel: Newton ($8,700) + Moore ($6,400) = $15,100
DraftKings: Newton ($6,600) + Moore ($5,600) = $12,200
Facing the No. 32 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 27 ranked pass defense allowing 274.3 yards per game
Game Total - 55
Implied Totals - Panthers at 29 points and Buccaneers at 26 points
Game Line - Carolina Panthers -3.5
The Carolina Panthers are on the road to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday for an NFC South matchup in Week 13. This contest should be a high-scoring game as it has the second-highest total of the week, and the Buccaneers (via their implied total) will force Newton to open up the offense and throw the ball plenty in this game.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit the Buccaneers for an 8.7-yard average, and only one team in the NFL allows a higher average. The Buccaneers have given up 45 passing plays of 20-plus yards and only two teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays. The Buccaneers have allowed 26 scores through the air in 2018, and no team has allowed more in 2018.
The game script calls for plenty of points from the Buccaneers and it is easy to see that forcing the Panthers to open up their offense and keep throwing the ball down the field. Newton and the Panthers passing attack should be busy in Sunday in this shootout.
Moore has emerged throughout this season as a primary option for Newton as his target share has increased as the season has progressed. The Buccaneers are the league’s worst secondary and Moore comes into this game on a bit of a hot streak.
He saw nine targets last week and has 17 total targets in the two games. Moore has caught 15 of those 17 targets for 248 yards and a score over that span. There is plenty of upside in this stack as the Panthers passing attack should have a very strong outing in Week 13.
Pivot: Tight end Greg Olsen ($6,000 at FanDuel and $4,100 at DraftKings) is facing the league’s No. 28 DVOA pass defense versus the tight end. They allow 7.2 attempts and 74.8 yards per game to the position, and Olsen has a chance to have a strong showing here. Wide receiver Curtis Samuel ($5,500 at FanDuel and $3,900 at DraftKings) is worth a dart throw in this high scoring game at his price, and he has a favorable matchup against Buccaneers slot cornerback Javien Elliott.
Note that Newton, Olsen, and Samuel are all questionable as of this writing and their status requires monitoring throughout the week. Check back for an update on Saturday.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
FanDuel: Goff ($8,400) + Cooks ($7,800) = $16,200
DraftKings: Goff ($6,400) + Cooks ($7,000) = $13,400
Facing the No. 31 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 13 allowing ranked pass defense 238.4 yards per game
Game Total - 55
Implied Totals - Rams at 32.5 points and Lions at 22.5 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Rams -10
The Los Angeles Rams are on the road on Sunday to take on the Detroit Lions in a Week 13 NFC clash. This game has the second-highest total of the week at 55 points, but the Lions implied number has them only scoring 22.5 points in this game, and that is where all the risk lies regarding this stack. Can the Lions push the Rams to get them to score more than their projected total?
Wilson has been incredibly efficient in 2018 as he has thrown 23 touchdowns in 10 games to go along with only 2192 yards and five interceptions. The yardage numbers are way down in 2018, but the touchdown totals remain elevated which has maintained his floor.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit the Lions for an 8.6-yard average, and only two teams in the NFL allow a higher average. The Lions have given up 40 passing plays of 20-plus yards and only 12 teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays. The Lions have given up seven passing plays of 40-plus yards and only nine teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays.
The Lions have allowed 24 scores through the air in 2018 which is seventh-worst in the NFL. When looking at the numbers, the Lions give up a touchdown at the second-highest rate per attempt in the NFL. Goff is going to throw touchdowns in this game, and his upside is tied directly to the Lions ability to score and push the Rams passing game.
The Lions lack speed in their secondary and Cooks is a player that can quickly take the top off the defense, and he should have the opportunity to make a few big plays in this game. Cooks has been targeted 40 times in the past four games, and he has caught 27 passes for 395 yards and one score over that span.
Again, this stack is very dependent on how much the Lions can push Goff to throw the ball, and that is where the risk is with this stack. However, there is upside here as the Lions are extremely vulnerable through the air, especially in the area where Cooks wins.
Pivot: Wide receivers Robert Woods ($7,300 at FanDuel and $6,900 at DraftKings) and Josh Reynolds ($5,800 at FanDuel and $4,900 at DraftKings) are both outstanding options for GPP play in this matchup. Simply put, the Lions do not have the speed to cover the Rams receiving weapons, and both have the potential to go off in this game.
Tight end Gerald Everett ($4,800 at FanDuel and $2,900 at DraftKings) is also a very solid option as the Lions struggle to cover the tight end. It is not difficult to see Everett getting into the end zone in this game and putting up good production, and he is a value play at his price.
Matthew Stafford + Kenny Golladay
FanDuel: Stafford ($6,700) + Golladay ($7,300) = $14,000
DraftKings: Stafford ($5,400) + Golladay ($6,700) = $12,100
Facing the No. 7 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 19 ranked pass defense allowing 252.6 yards per game
Game Total - 55
Implied Totals - Lions at 22.5 points and Rams at 32.5 points
Game Line - Detroit Lions +10
The Detroit Lions are at home on Sunday as they bring the Los Angeles Rams to town for a Week 13 NFC matchup. This game is expected to be one of the higher scoring games of the week as it has the second-highest game total. The implied number has the Rams scoring enough points to force Stafford into throwing the ball plenty in this game, and that means significant passing-game volume against a vulnerable secondary.
Stafford and the Lions offense are struggling as they are without weapons that can separate from coverage. Pressure is also getting home too often, and Stafford is not getting much traction, but he will see significant volume in this game, and that gives him a shot at a big game. He may be a tremendous value at his price, but there is enormous risk in rostering this stack.
The Rams have allowed an 8.1-yard average, and only five teams in the NFL allow a higher average. The Rams have given up 46 passing plays of 20-plus yards and only one team in the NFL allows more of these types of plays. The Rams have given up 12 passing plays of 40-plus yards and no team in the NFL allows more of these types of plays.
The Rams have given up 25 scores through the air, and only one team in the NFL has allowed more. If Stafford can get into a rhythm and handle the pressure the Rams will bring, he can put up points and represents value at his price. Also, the Lions have a fairly good chance (garbage time involved) to get over their implied number, and that is where an edge can be had in GPP play.
Golladay is easily the first option in the Lions passing attack, and Stafford will force feed him as there are really very few other options. Golladay has been targeted 40 times in the past four games, catching 22 passes in that span for 327 yards, and he has caught two touchdowns in that span of games.
The Lions passing attack is going to see heavy volume and has a chance to be very productive in this matchup. However, there is just as much chance that the Lions passing attack is a total bust with the pressure the Rams will bring. Stafford and Golladay are an intriguing GPP option in Week 13, but you will have to play them at your own risk.
RB/DST STACKS
Aaron Jones + Green Bay Packers D/ST
FanDuel: Jones ($7,600) + Packers ($4,400) = $12,000
DraftKings: Jones ($6,700) + Packers ($2,800) = $9,500
Facing the No. 21 ranked DVOA run defense and the No. 30 ranked run defense allowing 144.8 yards per game
Game Total - 44.5
Implied Totals - Packers at 29 points and Cardinals at 15.5 points
Game Line - Green Bay Packers -14
The Green Bay Packers are at home to face the Arizona Cardinals in a Week 13 matchup. The Packers are a huge 14-point home-favorite, and they are forecast to score more than four touchdowns in this game. The running game will be relied on heavily, and Jones has a chance to shine in Week 13.
The Cardinals defense is yielding 4.5 yards per carry, and only 12 teams in the NFL allow more. No team in the NFL has defended more runs than the 32.2 per game the Cardinals have faced. The Cardinals have surrendered 14 running plays that have gone for 20-plus yards, and only one team in the NFL allows more.
They have also surrendered 16 touchdowns on the ground which is most in the NFL. The game script calls for a heavier than normal workload for Jones and he is in line for a very big game. Jones has scored six times in the last five games since the Packers Week 7 bye. He has touched the ball 84 times in that span, but the game script calls for more volume in this matchup.
The Packers will be able to get after Cardinals rookie quarterback Josh Rosen as they enter this game with 36 total sacks in 2018 which is third-most in the NFL. Rosen is prone to putting the ball into dangerous spots (like most rookie quarterbacks) as he has thrown 11 interceptions in his nine starts.
Both Jones and the Packers defense have outstanding matchups in Week 13, and both sides of this stack should perform well in GPP play in Week 13.
Todd Gurley + Los Angeles Rams D/ST
FanDuel: Gurley ($9,800) + Rams ($4,100) = $13,900
DraftKings: Gurley ($9,300) + Rams ($2,600) = $11,900
Facing the No. 22 ranked DVOA run defense and the No. 19 ranked run defense allowing 117.1 yards per game
Game Total - 55
Implied Totals - Rams at 32.5 points and Lions at 22.5 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Rams -10
The Los Angeles Rams travel to Detroit on Sunday to face the faltering Lions in a Week 13 NFC clash. The Rams are a 10-point road favorite, and they are forecast to score more than four touchdowns in this game.
The Lions are allowing 4.7 yards per carry which is seventh-worst in the NFL. The Lions have surrendered five running plays that have gone for 40-plus yards, and only one team in the NFL allows more of these types of runs. Gurley should feast on the Lions in this premium matchup as he is one of the elite running backs in the NFL because of his ability to run and catch the ball.
Gurley has scored 17 total touchdowns this season, and he has been involved in the passing attack as well as he has been targeted 56 times in 2018. He has caught 43 passes for 441 yards, catching four touchdowns in 2018. The Rams are utilizing Gurley as a runner and as a weapon out of the backfield, and he has scored a touchdown in every game but one in 2018.
The Rams will be able to apply pressure on Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford as the Lions offensive line has been leaky of late. Pressure is not Stafford’s friend, and he is prone to turning the ball over under pressure, and it is not hard to see defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald making life difficult for Stafford in this matchup.
The matchups are excellent for both Gurley and the Rams defense, and each part of the stack should perform well in GPP play in Week 13.
Kareem Hunt + Kansas City Chiefs D/ST
FanDuel: Hunt ($8,900) + Chiefs ($4,300) = $13,200
DraftKings: Hunt ($7,800) + Chiefs ($2,500) = $10,300
Facing the No. 30 ranked DVOA run defense and the No. 32 ranked run defense allowing 151.4 yards per game
Game Total - 55.5
Implied Totals - Chiefs at 35 points and Raiders at 20.5 points
Game Line - Kansas City Chiefs -15
The Kansas City Chiefs travel on Sunday to take on the Oakland Raiders in Week 13 AFC West showdown. The Chiefs are an enormous road favorite, and they are forecast to score five touchdowns in this game. We should see plenty of Hunt in this matchup as the Chiefs offense should have no issues with the Raiders.
Hunt has a fantastic matchup against a defense yielding 4.9 yards per carry, and only four teams in the NFL allow a higher average. The Raiders have surrendered nine running plays that have gone for 20-plus yards, and only 11 teams in the NFL allows more of these types of runs.
The Raiders have also surrendered six running plays that have gone for 40-plus yards which are most in the NFL. Also, the Raiders have surrendered 10 touchdowns via the ground, and only eight teams across the NFL allow more.
The game script calls for plenty of work for Hunt as the Chiefs should be up early, and they will finish this game with Hunt carrying the ball to run out the clock. Hunt has the potential to have a gigantic day against the Raiders on Sunday.
The Chiefs offense is going to put points on the board in this game, and it will force the Raiders to open up their offense to stay in the game. There will be potential for the Chiefs defense to harass and get after Raiders quarterback Derek Carr. The Chiefs have registered 36 sacks in 2018 which is third-most in the NFL. The Raiders have allowed 36 sacks which are fifth-most in the NFL.
The game script is positive for both sides of this stack and Hunt and the Chiefs defense are both strong options for GPP play in Week 13.
Edit: Hunt was released by the Kansas City Chiefs late this week and is being replaced in the starting lineup by running back Spencer Ware ($5,200 at FanDuel and $4,000 at DraftKings). Ware is a strong option in this potent offense and he should perform admirably in Hunt's place, and he is a fantastic option at his price. Ware will be rostered at a very high level and you will share him with many other lineups in GPP play in Week 13. If you are looking to fade Ware and want to get a piece of the Chiefs running attack, look at Damien Williams ($4,500 at FanDuel and $3,000 at DraftKings) as he might be an intriguing variance play if Ware struggles at all.
