Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
NOTE: This article has been updated as of 9:00 PM EST on 11/24/18
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
FanDuel: Winston ($7,500) + Evans ($7,900) = $15,400
DraftKings: Winston ($6,000) + Evans ($7,700) = $13,700
Facing the No. 21 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 15 ranked pass defense allowing 242 yards per game
Game Total - 55
Implied Totals - Buccaneers at 29 points and 49ers at 26 points
Game Line - Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5
The Tamp Bay Buccaneers are at home on Sunday as they bring the San Francisco 49ers to town for a Week 12 NFC matchup. This game is expected to be one of the higher scoring games of the week as it has the second-highest game total. The implied number has the Buccaneers scoring more than four touchdowns in this game, and Winston should be able to get the Buccaneers offense on a roll in this contest.
Winston and veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick have changed roles throughout the season as each has started games and been effective. However, each has turned the ball over far too frequently, and it has led to significant volatility at the position for the Buccaneers.
The 49ers are a middle of the pack pass defense in many areas, but they are very susceptible in the red zone. The 49ers have given up 21 scores through the air, and only five teams in the NFL have allowed more. Winston should easily add to that number as this is an excellent matchup with an outstanding game script.
The implied numbers are pushing a game script that has each team scoring enough points to force the other team to keep throwing, and that means there is great potential for Winston and the Buccaneers offense in this game.
Evans is easily the first option in the Buccaneers passing attack, and Winston will give him a chance to make plays because he will put the ball into a position that allows Evans to use his size and ball skills. Evans has been targeted 91 times in 2018, including 36 targets in the past four games. He has caught 16 passes in that span for 366 yards, and he has caught two touchdowns in that span of games.
The Buccaneers passing game is in an excellent spot in this matchup as the 49ers are vulnerable against the pass. Also, the game script is extremely favorable for plenty of volume which will allow Winston and Evans to be productive at a high level making this an intriguing stack for GPP play in Week 12.
Pivot: Tight end Cameron Brate ($4,400 at FanDuel and $3,600 at DraftKings) jumps into a starting role with tight end O.J Howard on injured reserve for the year, and he comes in at a great price in Week 12. The 49ers are the league’s No. 22 ranked DVOA pass defense versus the tight end, and Brate should be able to exploit the 49ers in this matchup.
FanDuel: Luck ($8,400) + Hilton ($7,500) = $15,900
DraftKings: Luck ($6,400) + Hilton ($6,500) = $12,900
Facing the No. 22 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 19 ranked pass defense allowing 250.3 yards per game
Game Total - 50
Implied Totals - Colts at 30.5 points and Dolphins at 19.5 points
Game Line - Indianapolis Colts -10
The Indianapolis Colts bring the Miami Dolphins to Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday for an AFC matchup in Week 12. This game is expected to be a high-scoring affair as it has the third-highest total of the week. The implied number has the Colts scoring more than four touchdowns, and Luck comes into this game on a tear.
Luck has thrown for 29 scores and nine interceptions to go along with 2769 yards in his first 10 games in 2018. Luck is almost entirely responsible for the Colts ability to put the ball into the end zone. Luck has an excellent matchup in Week 12 and should be heavily considered for GPP play this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit the Dolphins for an 8.1-yard average which is fifth-worst in the NFL. The
Dolphins have given up nine passing plays of 40-plus yards and only two teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays. The Dolphins have also yielded 18 scores through the air, and only 13 teams have given up more.
Hilton missed a few games earlier in the season with a hamstring injury, but he looks fully recovered coming off of a huge week against the Titans in Week 11. Hilton has been targeted 25 has been times over the past four games. He has caught 17 passes for 291 yards, but he has scored four touchdowns over that span. Hilton can take the top off the defense, and the Dolphins have been hit with vertical plays throughout the season.
The Dolphins lack the ability to cover Hilton as he draws a favorable matchup against Dolphins cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick. Hilton and Luck make for a great stack for GPP play in Week 12.
Pivot: Tight end Eric Ebron ($5,500 at FanDuel and $4,000 at DraftKings) is making the most of his opportunities as he has scored 10 total touchdowns in 2018. He does not see much volume, but he is getting into the end zone on a fairly regular basis, and at his price, that makes him a desirable GPP option.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
FanDuel: Mullens ($6,000) + Kittle ($7,500) = $13,500
DraftKings: Mullens ($5,400) + Kittle ($6,200) = $11,600
Facing the No. 30 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 28 ranked pass defense allowing 282.3 yards per game
Game Total - 55
Implied Totals - 49ers at 26 points and Buccaneers at 29 points
Game Line - San Francisco 49ers +3.5
The San Francisco 49ers are on the road to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday for an NFC matchup in Week 12. This contest looks to be a high-scoring game as it has the second-highest total of the week, and the Buccaneers (via their implied total) will force Mullens to open up the offense and throw the ball plenty in this game.
Mullens has taken the starting spot from quarterback C.J. Beathard, and he has performed admirably for the 49ers. However, he is on the list because of the matchup as the Buccaneers have been torched on a consistent basis throughout the 2018 season.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit the Buccaneers for an 8.9-yard average, and only one team in the NFL allows a higher average. The Buccaneers have given up 42 passing plays of 20-plus yards and only two teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays.
The Buccaneers have allowed 25 scores through the air in 2018, and only the Rams have allowed more in 2018. However, the Buccaneers have had their bye, and the rate they surrender passing scores is last in the NFL. It is not unrealistic to expect multiple passing scores from Mullens in this game, and at his price, he is a fantastic bargain.
The game script calls for plenty of points from the Buccaneers and it is easy to see that forcing the 49ers to open up their offense and keep throwing the ball down the field. Kittle has driven the 49ers passing game in 2018, and he faces the league’s No. 31 ranked DVOA pass defense versus the tight end. The Buccaneers allow 6.9 attempts and a league-worst 79 yards per game to the position.
However, there is risk in rostering Mullens as he has a banged up receiver corps with receivers Marquise Goodwin and Pierre Garcon questionable. If one or both miss the game, there is a chance that Mullens might lock on to Kittle, or for the offense to sputter at times which would cap their upside.
Kittle has been a reliable option for Mullens as he looks for security. Kittle is a very dangerous weapon as he is incredibly athletic and tough to cover. He saw 10 targets last week and has 14 total targets in the two games Mullens has started. Kittle has caught 13 of those 14 targets for 191 yards and a score over that span. There is clear risk here, but there is also upside, and this stack could pay huge dividends for GPP play in Week 12.
FanDuel: Wilson ($7,700) + Baldwin ($6,500) = $14,200
DraftKings: Wilson ($5,600) + Baldwin ($5,100) = $10,700
Facing the No. 25 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 21 allowing ranked pass defense 253.9 yards per game
Game Total - 47.5
Implied Totals - Seahawks at 22 points and Panthers at 25.5 points
Game Line - Seattle Seahawks +3.5
The Seattle Seahawks are on the road on Sunday to take on the Carolina Panthers in a Week 12 NFC clash. This game has the fourth-highest total of the week at 47.5 points, and the Seahawks implied number has them only scoring 22 points. For GPP play, it is imperative to find players playing in offenses that go over their implied total, and the Seahawks should do exactly that in this game.
Wilson has been incredibly efficient in 2018 as he has thrown 23 touchdowns in 10 games to go along with only 2192 yards and five interceptions. The yardage numbers are way down in 2018, but the touchdown totals remain elevated which has maintained his floor.
The Panthers are a middle of the pack defense in a variety of stats, but they are surrendering scores through the air at a very high rate. The Panthers have yielded 23 scores through the air, and only three teams have given up more.
Wilson has been able to get his offense into the end zone on a regular basis via the pass, and he should be able to continue to make that happen this week. Wilson has thrown for 10 touchdowns in his past four games, and if the Panthers offense can push the Seahawks, and force them to get a little more aggressive, we could see three-plus touchdowns from Wilson in this contest.
The game script calls for plenty of volume for the Seahawks passing game as they are an underdog on the road facing a very potent offense. It is easy to see a path for GPP success for the Seahawks passing attack in Week 12, but there is also risk via their low implied number. Can the Seahawks score more than three touchdowns in this game?
Baldwin has played on a gimpy knee but he is looking more comfortable running routes of late, and he saw 10 targets against the Packers last week. Baldwin has been targeted 22 times in the past four games, and he has caught 18 passes for 194 yards and one score over that span.
This stack is very dependent on how much the Panthers can push Wilson to throw the ball, and there is where the risk is with this stack. However, there is upside as the Seahawks should be chasing a bit and that could open the door to a big game from Wilson and company.
Edit: After publishing, Baldwin missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday due to a groin injury and is officially questionable for the game. Head coach Pete Carroll said Baldwin is a game-time decision, and we will have an official answer on Baldwin's availability around 11:45 AM EST as the Seahawks play in the early slate of games on Sunday. There is tremendous risk in playing Baldwin, specifically due to the type of injury he has, and if you choose to roster Baldwin, do so at your own risk.
Pivot: Wide receiver Tyler Lockett ($6,300 at FanDuel and $5,200 at DraftKings) is a potent outside weapon capable of making big plays on a consistent basis. He draws a favorable matchup with Panthers cornerback Donte Jackson, but the risk detailed above exists here as well. Lockett has seven touchdown receptions this year, and he could easily add to that number this week.
Edit: Lockett immediately jumps out as a beneficiary from a volume perspective if Baldwin scratches, and he becomes an excellent GPP play with the potential for more targets in this matchup. Also, wide receiver David Moore ($5,800 at FanDuel and $3,700 at DraftKings) is also an intriguing option and worth a dart thrown in this matchup.
RB/DST STACKS
Gus Edwards + Baltimore Ravens D/ST
FanDuel: Edwards ($5,300) + Ravens ($5,000) = $10,300
DraftKings: Edwards ($4,400) + Ravens ($3,300) = $7,700
Facing the No. 25 ranked DVOA run defense and the No. 31 ranked run defense allowing 142.3 yards per game
Game Total - 42.5
Implied Totals - Ravens at 26.5 points and Raiders at 16 points
Game Line - Baltimore Ravens -10.5
The Baltimore Ravens are at home to face the Oakland Raiders in a Week 12 AFC matchup. The Ravens are a 10.5-point home-favorite, and they are forecast to score almost four touchdowns in this game. The running game will be relied on heavily with quarterback Lamar Jackson starting again this week.
Interestingly, Edwards emerged with Jackson at quarterback as he is a better fit for the zone-read running attack the Ravens deployed last week. Edwards could have a big day if that remains this week as he has a great matchup against a bad run defense.
The Raiders defense is yielding 4.8 yards per carry which is sixth-worst in the NFL. Only two teams across the league have defended more runs than the 29.6 per game the Raiders have faced. The Raiders have surrendered six running plays that have gone for 40-plus yards, and no team in the NFL allows more.
They have also surrendered nine touchdowns on the ground, and only 10 teams in the NFL have yielded more. The game script calls for a heavier than normal workload for Ravens running backs against the Raiders on Sunday, and they are in line for a big day.
The Ravens will be able to get after Raiders quarterback Derek Carr as they enter this game with 29 total sacks in 2018 which is eighth-most in the NFL. The Raiders have given up 33 sacks which are fifth-most in the NFL. If the Ravens can get home, they can force Carr to put the ball into bad spots which can lead to excellent defensive production in this game.
Edwards and the Ravens defense are in prime matchups in Week 12 as both sides of this stack should perform well in GPP play in Week 12.
Melvin Gordon III + Los Angeles Chargers D/ST
FanDuel: Gordon ($8,900) + Chargers ($4,900) = $13,300
DraftKings: Gordon ($8,600) + Chargers ($3,400) = $12,200
Facing the No. 15 ranked DVOA run defense and the No. 29 ranked run defense allowing 141.5 yards per game
Game Total - 45
Implied Totals - Chargers at 28.5 points and Cardinals at 16.5 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Chargers -12
The Los Angeles Chargers bring Arizona to town on Sunday to take on the Cardinals in a Week 12 matchup of teams going in opposite directions. The Chargers are a 12-point favorite at home, and they are forecast to score more than four touchdowns in this game.
The Cardinals run defense is seeing a lot of volume (this is exactly what the game script calls for) as they have defended 32.4 rushing attempts per game which is most in the NFL. We should see the Chargers ahead and grinding out the clock via their ground game as this game wears on. The Cardinals are a middle of the pack run defense allowing 4.4 yards per carry, but this a volume-based play as Gordon should see a lot of work in this matchup.
The Cardinals have surrendered 12 running plays that have gone for 20-plus yards, and only one team in the NFL allows more of these types of runs. The Cardinals have given up 13 rushing scores in 2018, and only two teams have allowed more.
Gordon is one of the elite running backs in the NFL because of his ability to run and catch the ball. Gordon has scored 11 total touchdowns this season, and he has been involved in the passing attack as well as he has been targeted 58 times in the nine games he has played in 2018. He has caught 42 passes for 448 yards and catching four touchdowns in 2018. The Chargers are utilizing Gordon as a runner and as a weapon out of the backfield.
The Chargers should be able to get after Cardinals rookie quarterback Josh Rosen as the Cardinals have surrendered 28 sacks in 2018, and only 12 teams in the NFL allow more. The Cardinals have thrown 14 interceptions in 2018, and only three teams have thrown more interceptions this year. The Chargers can apply pressure to force Rosen into turning the ball over which will lead to defensive production.
The matchups are excellent for both Gordon and the Chargers defense, and each part of the stack should perform well in GPP play in Week 12.
Edit: Gordon practiced in full on Wednesday but was added to the injury report on Thursday with a combination of injuries (knee/hamstring) and was a limited participant on Thursday and Friday. He will be a game-time decision on Sunday, but there are multiple issues to consider when it comes to his playing time, or lack thereof even if he does play in this contest. The Chargers are a big favorite and if they get out to a lead, it is hard to see the Chargers giving him touches with these ailments. Play Gordon at your own risk.
Running back Austin Ekeler stands to benefit greatly if Gordon scratches as he will get a full workload in this premium matchup. Ekeler ($5,400 at FanDuel and $3,700 at DraftKings) is a tremendous value at his price and he has a chance to have a very big day. The Chargers utilize him as a runner and as a receiver and he should be able to generate excellent production if Gordon misses the game. Ekeler is still a solid option if Gordon is active, but that leads to a lack of overall clarity and presents risk as the usage for each player is very much unknown. Start Ekeler if Gordon does not play as he is a fantastic GPP option in that scenario, but do so at your own risk if Gordon is active.
Marlon Mack + Indianapolis Colts D/ST
FanDuel: Mack ($7,000) + Colts ($4,400) = $11,400
DraftKings: Mack ($5,500) + Colts ($2,900) = $8,400
Facing the No. 21 ranked DVOA run defense and the No. 30 ranked run defense allowing 142 yards per game
Game Total - 50
Implied Totals - Colts at 30.5 points and Dolphins at 19.5 points
Game Line - Indianapolis Colts -10
The Indianapolis Colts are at home on Sunday to take on the Miami Dolphins in Week 12 AFC matchup. The Colts are a 10-point home-favorite, and they are forecast to score four-plus touchdowns in this game.
Mack has a fantastic matchup against a defense yielding 4.8 yards per carry, and only five teams in the NFL allow a higher average. The Dolphins have surrendered 12 running plays that have gone for 20-plus yards, and only one team in the NFL allows more of these types of runs. The Dolphins have also surrendered three running plays that have gone for 40-plus yards and only two teams in the NFL allow more.
The game script calls for plenty of work for Mack as the Colts should be up and finishing this game with Mack carrying the ball. In games with similar game scripts a few weeks ago, Mack had his two best games of the season.
In Week 7 versus the Buffalo Bills, Mack had 19 carries for 126 yards and a touchdown. One week later against the Raiders, Mack had 25 carries for 125 yards and two scores. A similar game script exists in this matchup and Mack has a chance to be extremely productive in Week 12.
The Colts offense is going to put points on the board in this game, and it will force the Dolphins to open up their offense to stay in the game. There will be potential for the Colts defense to harass and get after Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill who may be rusty as he has not started a game in seven weeks.
The game script is positive for both sides of this stack and Mack and the Colts defense are both strong options for GPP play in Week 12.
