Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
FanDuel: Brees ($8,400) + Thomas ($8,600) = $17,000
DraftKings: Brees ($6,300) + Thomas ($8,100) = $14,400
Facing the No. 16 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 32 ranked pass defense allowing 319.4 yards per game
Game Total - 54
Implied Totals - Saints at 29.5 points and Bengals at 24.5 points
Game Line - New Orleans Saints -5
The New Orleans Saints take to the road and travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals in a pivotal Week 10 matchup. This game is expected to be one of the higher scoring games of the week as it has the highest game total. The implied number has the Saints scoring more than four touchdowns in this game, and Brees should have his way with the Bengals defense s in this game.
Brees has had an excellent start to the season with the Saints as he has thrown for 2336 yards and 18 touchdowns to go with only one interception through the first half of the 2018 season. Brees also has two rushing touchdowns this year.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit the Bengals for a 7.8-yard average, and only seven teams in the NFL allow a higher average. The Bengals have given up 18 scores through the air, and only three teams in the NFL have allowed more. The Bengals have also given up 34 passing plays of 20-plus yards and only three teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays.
Cousins and Thomas have great chemistry. Thomas is a phenomenal route runner, and he is easily the first option in the Saints very potent passing attack. Thomas draws a great matchup against Bengals cornerback William Jackson on Sunday.
Thomas has been targeted 79 times in 2018, including 35 targets in the past four games. He has caught 28 passes in that span for 435 yards, scoring a touchdown in two of those four games.
The Saints passing game is in an excellent spot in this matchup as the Bengals are vulnerable versus the pass and the game script is very favorable for Thomas to continue his stellar play in Week 10. If the Bengals can push the Saints to keep throwing, Thomas could have a monster game as he did a week ago.
Pivot: Tight end and Ben Watson ($5,900 at FanDuel and $3,400 at DraftKings) is worth rostering as he faces a defense allowing 8.5 attempts and 70 yards per game to the tight end position. Wide receiver TreQuan Smith ($5,600 at FanDuel and $4,600 at DraftKings) is a solid streaming option in Week 10 as he has big-play ability and can make plays down the field in this plus matchup.
FanDuel: Rivers ($8,200) + Allen ($7,900) = $16,100
DraftKings: Rivers ($6,300) + Allen ($8,100) = $14,400
Facing the No. 32 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 24 ranked pass defense allowing 262.6 yards per game
Game Total - 50
Implied Totals - Chargers at 30 points and Raiders at 20 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Chargers -10
The Los Angeles Chargers travel to Oakland to face the Raiders in a Week 10 AFC West matchup that is expected to be a high scoring game. This game has the sixth-highest total of the week. The implied number has the Chargers scoring four-plus touchdowns, and Rivers will be able to exploit an awful Raiders defense on Sunday.
Rivers has thrown for 19 scores and three interceptions to go along with 2236 yards in his first eight games in 2018. Rivers is quietly putting up MVP-type numbers in 2018, and he has an excellent matchup in Week 10. Rivers should be heavily considered for GPP play this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit the Raiders for a 9.1-yard average, and no team in the NFL allows a higher average. The Raiders have given up 35 passing plays of 20-plus yards and only two teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays. The Raiders have given up nine passing plays of 40-plus yards and only one team in the NFL allow more of these types of plays.
The Raiders have also yielded 19 scores through the air, and only one team has given up more. The Raiders have allowed a quarterback rating of 113.9 which is second-worst in the NFL. Lastly, the Raiders have only generated seven sacks in 2018 which is the fewest in the NFL. Rivers will have time to pick apart the Raiders and exploit them all over the field on Sunday.
Allen is the first option in the Chargers passing attack, and he has been targeted 30 times over the past four games. He has caught 23 passes for 348 yards, but he has not scored a touchdown over that span. The touchdown numbers are underwhelming but this week’s matchup makes Allen an excellent option for GPP play in Week 10.
The game script has both teams scoring enough points to keep the other offense pushing the pace, and that means great things for Rivers and company. Attacking the Raiders secondary is one of the best GPP plays in Week 10.
Pivot: Wide receiver Tyrell Williams ($6,500 at FanDuel and $4,500 at DraftKings) is an excellent choice in Week 10 as he will benefit from a great matchup and he can break big plays and score long touchdowns. Rivers will be comfortable in the contest and Williams could pay huge dividends. Wide receiver Mike Williams ($5,400 at FanDuel and $3,800 at DraftKings) is a total wildcard type play as he is completely touchdown dependent, but he comes at a reduced price and would add much-needed variance to your roster.
FanDuel: Ryan ($8,500) + Jones ($8,700) = $17,200
DraftKings: Ryan ($6,200) + Jones ($8,300) = $14,500
Facing the No. 2 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 27 ranked pass defense allowing 285 yards per game
Game Total - 50.5
Implied Totals - Falcons at 27.5 points and Browns at 23 points
Game Line - Atlanta Falcons -4.5
The Atlanta Falcons travel to Cleveland in Week 10 to take on the Browns. This contest is sure to be a high-scoring affair as it has the fifth-highest total of the week, and both teams are expected to score plenty of points via their implied totals.
Ryan has thrown for 19 scores and three interceptions to go along with 2685 yards in his first eight games in 2018. Like Rivers, Ryan is also putting up MVP-type numbers in 2018, and he has an excellent matchup in Week 10.
Ryan should be heavily considered for GPP play this week against a team that has struggled to defend the pass over recent weeks and one that will be without key members in their secondary. Cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Damarious Randall, and linebacker Joe Schobert are questionable for Week 10. Cornerback E.J. Gaines and linebacker Christian Kirksey were placed on IR this week.
The Browns have given up 32 passing plays of 20-plus yards and only seven teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays. They have also given up seven passing plays of 40+ yards, and only five teams in the NFL have allowed more through nine weeks.
The game script calls for plenty of points from both teams and it is easy to see both teams scoring enough to force the other offense to keep the throttle open. Also, the Browns play at a very quick pace and simply put, there will be more offensive plays for the Falcons in this game than normal. That means more opportunities for production and expands the ceiling of all Falcons offensive weapons.
Jones is still a force and has been targeted 45 times over the past four weeks, catching 31 passes for 431 yards over that span, and he finally got into the end zone last week. Jones should be heavily owned, but he has a great matchup and should produce at an extremely high level in Week 10.
Ryan and Jones are going to be busy on Sunday in this high-scoring game, and this stack can pay huge dividends in GPP play in Week 10.
Pivot: Wide Receiver Calvin Ridley ($6,600 at FanDuel and $5,900 at DraftKings) continues to be worthy of consideration, but you are chasing touchdowns if you are playing him. This is an excellent matchup as Jones will see plenty of coverage which could lead to a big day for Ridley. Tight end Austin Hooper ($5,800 at FanDuel and $3,800 at DraftKings) could be in store for a big day as well with the Browns missing several key pieces from a linebacker coverage standpoint. The Browns have been gashed by the tight end position over the past several games as the Browns deal with the injuries mentioned above.
FanDuel: Rodgers ($8,600) + Adams ($8,600) = $17,200
DraftKings: Rodgers ($6,400) + Adams ($7,800) = $14,200
Facing the No. 23 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 22 ranked pass defense allowing 257.9 yards per game
Game Total - 47.5
Implied Totals - Packers at 28.5 points and Dolphins at 19 points
Game Line - Green Bay Packers -9.5
The Green Bay Packers are at home to face the Miami Dolphins on Sunday for a Week 10 matchup. The Packers are forecast to score four-plus touchdowns, and Rodgers and the passing attack could be responsible for the majority of the scoring in this game because of the Packers running game woes.
The Packers have four rushing touchdowns through seven games in 2018, and only two teams across the NFL have fewer rushing scores. That could change this week because they are a heavy home favorite, but there is still enough passing-game volume here to make this stack worthy of selection.
Rodgers has thrown for 2542 yards and 15 scores to go with only one interception in eight games, and it is easy to see that he is the engine that makes the Packers offense go at this point. The Packers offense goes through Rodgers, and he should be able to exploit a poor Dolphins secondary in Week 10.
The Dolphins have allowed an 8.2-yard average, and only four teams in the NFL allow a higher average. The Dolphins have given up 33 passing plays of 20-plus yards and only five teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays.
The Dolphins have also given up nine passing plays of 40-plus yards and only one team in the NFL allow more of these types of plays. The Dolphins have given up 16 scores through the air, and only nine teams in the NFL have allowed more.
Perhaps most important to this is the fact the Dolphins have only generated 15 sacks in 2018, and only three teams in the NFL have fewer sacks through nine weeks. Rodgers has been injured all year, but if he can get comfortable in the pocket, he will pick apart the Dolphins defense with ease on Sunday.
Adams is a very potent weapon with the ability to beat teams all over the field, and he is easily the Packers first option in their passing attack. He has been targeted 44 times in his past four games, catching 30 passes for 445 yards and four scores over that span. Rodgers and Adams make an excellent stack in GPP play in Week 10.
Pivot: Wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,700 at FanDuel and $4,700 at DraftKings) is worth the throw of a dart in this matchup. He looks comfortable in the Packer offense and is making plays when given the opportunity to do so. Valdes-Scantling starts with receiver Geronimo Allison out, and he could play a huge role for the Packers offense going forward.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
FanDuel: Fitzpatrick ($7,600) + Evans ($7,500) = $15,100
DraftKings: Fitzpatrick ($5,900) + Evans ($7,000) = $12,900
Facing the No. 19 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 20 allowing ranked pass defense 254.1 yards per game
Game Total - 51.5
Implied Totals - Buccaneers at 27 points and Redskins at 24.5 points
Game Line - Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are at home on Sunday to take on the Washington Redskins in a Week 10 NFC matchup. This game has the second-highest total of the week at 51.5 points, and the Buccaneers implied number has them scoring almost four touchdowns.
Fitzpatrick started the season on fire, throwing for 400-plus yards in each of the season’s first three games while registering 11 touchdown passes. He was pulled in favor of quarterback Jameis Winston in Week 4 but came back in Week 8 in relief of Winston. Fitzpatrick threw for two scores against the Bengals to tie the game late in the fourth quarter in Week 8, and he threw four touchdowns last week versus the Carolina Panthers.
The Redskins have done a very solid job of defending the pass in 2018, but this is a volume-based play (like last week) as the Redskins offense should funnel points to the Buccaneers passing game. If the Buccaneers are going to score four touchdowns, it will come on the arm of Fitzpatrick and his receiving weapons.
The game script calls for plenty of volume for the Buccaneers passing game, and they are a potent unit with weapons everywhere, and they do not run the ball effectively. It is easy to see a path for GPP success for the Buccaneers passing attack in Week 10.
Evans has been targeted 39 times over the past four games, but he has only caught 18 passes for 360 yards and one score over that span. Fitzpatrick and Evans need to get on the same page, and if you are rostering this stack, you are banking on that happening. Evans had huge games earlier in the season with Fitzpatrick starting. He caught 23 passes for 367 yards and scored a touchdown in the all three games that Fitzpatrick played in to start the season.
There are multiple risks associated with this stack. First is the fact that Evans is dealing with an injured knee and he did not practice on Wednesday. Monitor his status going forward, and make sure he gets a full practice in before selecting him.
There is also risk with the Redskins offense, and whether it can push the Buccaneers offense like the Panthers offense did last week. If the Redskins can take advantage of the horrendous Buccaneers defense, then it opens to door for an expanded ceiling for the Buccaneers passing attack as they will be forced to throw it all over the field.
Pivot: Wide receiver DeSean Jackson ($6,600 at FanDuel and $5,000 at DraftKings) is capable of vertical plays and would be worth a shot because of his big-play ability if Evans were to miss the game, or was limited in any fashion. The same applies to wide receiver Chris Godwin ($5,500 at FanDuel and $4,000 at DraftKings) as he would step into a starting role in this potent passing game. If Evans misses this contest, then Godwin becomes an extremely attractive option at a phenomenal price.
Tight end O.J. Howard ($6,000 at FanDuel and $4,300 at DraftKings) has emerged as a high-quality option at the tight end position. Washington is the league’s No. 13 ranked DVOA pass defense versus the tight end, allowing 7.9 attempts and 45.8 yards per game to the position. He is an intriguing option if he sees the kind of volume the Redskins are allowing to the position. Only eight teams allow more attempts to the tight end position than the Redskins, and that puts Howard in line for a potentially big day.
RB/DST STACKS
Kareem Hunt + Kansas City Chiefs D/ST
FanDuel: Hunt ($9,000) + Chiefs ($4,600) = $13,600
DraftKings: Hunt ($8,500) + Chiefs ($3,300) = $11,800
Facing the No. 12 ranked DVOA run defense and the No. 31 ranked run defense allowing 143.1 yards per game
Game Total - 50
Implied Totals - Chiefs at 33 points and Cardinals at 17 points
Game Line - Kansas City Chiefs -16.5
The Kansas City Chiefs are at home to face the Arizona Cardinals in a Week 10 matchup of teams going in opposite directions. The Chiefs are a whopping 16.5-point home-favorite, and they are forecast to score almost five touchdowns in this game.
Hunt has a phenomenal matchup against a defense yielding a middle of the pack 4.3 yards per carry, but the volume the Cardinals have allowed is significant. They have defended an average of 33.5 runs per game which is the most in the NFL, and the game script is very favorable for Hunt in this game as he should be very active.
The Cardinals have surrendered 10 running plays that have gone for 20-plus yards, and only one team in the NFL allows more. They have also surrendered 12 touchdowns on the ground which is second-worst in the NFL.
Hunt is a crucial component of the potent Chiefs offense, and he comes into this game on a tear as he has scored 13 touchdowns this season. He has a very involved role in the Chiefs dangerous screen-pass game and is not just a runner. He has been involved in the passing attack as well, catching 16 passes over the past four games. He has totaled 246 yards while catching five touchdowns over that span.
The game script calls for a heavier than normal workload for Hunt against the Cardinals on Sunday, and he is in line for a very big game against a horrendous run defense.
The Chiefs will be able to get after Cardinals rookie quarterback Josh Rosen as they enter this game with 26 total sacks in 2018 which is fourth-most in the NFL. Pressure should give the Chiefs defense should plenty of opportunities to put up points in this game.
Hunt and the Chiefs defense are in prime matchups in Week 10, and both sides of this stack should perform well in GPP play in Week 10.
Melvin Gordon III + Los Angeles Chargers D/ST
FanDuel: Gordon ($8,900) + Chargers ($4,700) = $13,600
DraftKings: Gordon ($9,000) + Chargers ($3,500) = $12,500
Facing the No. 25 ranked DVOA run defense and the No. 32 ranked run defense allowing 144.5 yards per game
Game Total - 50
Implied Totals - Chargers at 30 points and Raiders at 20 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Chargers -10
The Los Angeles Chargers travel to Oakland to take on the Raiders in an AFC West matchup in Week 10. The Chargers are a 10-point favorite on the road, and they are forecast to score four-plus touchdowns in this game.
The Raiders run defense is seeing a lot of volume as they have defended 29.9 rushing attempts per game which is second-most in the NFL. Gordon has a fantastic matchup against a defense yielding 4.8 yards per carry, and only three teams in the NFL allow a higher average.
The Raiders have surrendered seven running plays that have gone for 20-plus yards and only nine teams in the NFL allow more of these types of runs. However, they have allowed five running plays of 40-plus yards which are most in the NFL. The Raiders have given up nine rushing scores in 2018, and only five teams across the NFL have allowed more.
Gordon has become one of the elite running backs in the NFL because of his ability to run and catch the ball. Gordon has scored 10 total touchdowns this season, and he has been involved in the passing attack as well as he has been targeted 43 times in the seven games he has played in 2018. He has caught 31 passes for 289 yards and catching three touchdowns in 2018. It is easy to see the Chargers are utilizing Gordon as a runner and as a weapon out of the backfield.
The game script calls for the Chargers to be up and running away from the Raiders in this game, and that means Gordon is in line for a big day from a volume standpoint. He should be able to feast upon the poor Raiders defense in Week 10 as a runner and as a receiver.
The Chargers should be able to get after Raiders quarterback Derek Carr with the Raiders offensive line struggling. The Raiders have given up 25 sacks in 2018 which is ninth-most in the NFL, and the Chargers can apply pressure to force Carr into bad decisions which can lead to defensive production.
The matchups are excellent for both Gordon and the Chargers defense, and each part of the stack should perform well in GPP play in Week 10.
Aaron Jones + Green Bay Packers D/ST
FanDuel: Jones ($6,500) + Packers ($3,900) = $10,400
DraftKings: Jones ($5,000) + Packers ($3,100) = $8,100
Facing the No. 17 ranked DVOA run defense and the No. 28 ranked run defense allowing 136.1 yards per game
Game Total - 47.5
Implied Totals - Packers at 28.5 points and Dolphins at 19 points
Game Line - Green Bay Packers -9.5
The Green Bay Packers are at home on Sunday to take on the Miami Dolphins in Week 10 matchup. The Packers are a 9.5-point home-favorite, and they are forecast to score four-plus touchdowns in this game.
Jones is the best running back on the Packers roster, and he is seeing more work on a week to week basis. There is a bit of risk with the crowded Packers backfield and the possibility Jones does not get a full workload in Sunday, but if he does, he is in a great spot. This is a very volume-dependent play as the Packers have struggled to run the ball this year, but this could be the week that changes.
Jones has a fantastic matchup against a defense yielding 4.6 yards per carry, and only nine teams in the NFL allow a higher average. The Dolphins have surrendered 10 running plays that have gone for 20-plus yards, and only one team in the NFL allows more in 2018. The Dolphins run defense is seeing a lot of volume as they have defended 29.8 rushing attempts per game which is third-most in the NFL.
Jones enters this game after a 14-carry, 76-yard performance against the Patriots in Week 9. He was also targeted four times and registered two catches last week for 10 yards. The Packers are a big favorite at home, and they have the opportunity to get Jones going in this game if they are ahead and grinding away the clock.
Pressure has never been kind to Dolphins quarterback Brock Osweiler, and the Packers defense could turn in a big performance in this contest. They have registered 25 sacks in 2018, and only five teams in the NFL have registered more, and that pressure will force Osweiler to make poor decisions which can lead to turnovers.
Jones and the Packers defense are both strong options for GPP play in Week 10, and they save some salary from the top-end potions that can be utilized elsewhere.
