Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
Baker Mayfield + Jarvis Landry
FanDuel: Mayfield ($7,100) + Landry ($6,500) = $13,600
DraftKings: Mayfield ($5,800) + Landry ($7,300) = $13,100
Facing the No. 32 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 32 ranked pass defense allowing 355.8 yards per game
Game Total - 49.5
Implied Totals - Browns at 23 points and Buccaneers at 26 points
Game Line - Cleveland Browns +3
The Cleveland Browns travel to Florida on Sunday to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a Week 7 matchup. This game has the fourth-highest total of the week at 49.5 points, and the Browns implied number has them scoring over three touchdowns.
The Buccaneers offense is playing at a high level right now, and the numbers here have them pushing the Browns offense to score points, and that means Mayfield is throwing the ball. The Buccaneers implied number is 26, and that is the fourth-highest of the week.
Teams have hit the Buccaneers for a completion percentage of 76.8 percent, and no team has allowed a higher percentage in 2018. The Buccaneers have allowed a 9.3-yard average which is also worst in the NFL. The Buccaneers have surrendered 16 passing scores in 2018 which is worst in the NFL. Only three teams in the NFL have generated fewer sacks than the nine the Buccaneers have generated in 2018.
Also, the Buccaneers have yielded 24 passing plays of 20-plus yards and only five teams across the league have given up more of these kinds of plays. Lastly, the Buccaneers have allowed passers a 129.5 quarterback rating which is the worst rating allowed in the NFL. It is easy to see all the stars lining up for Mayfield and the Browns passing attack in this game.
Landry has been heavily involved in the Browns passing attack having been targeted 68 times through six games. He has converted only 31 of those targets into catches, but there is a strong likelihood that Mayfield and Landry get on the same page in this game against a defense that has allowed heavy production to quarterbacks and receivers. It is clear that Landry is the Browns first option in their passing game and he will handle a heavy workload on Sunday.
As mentioned above, the game script tells us the Buccaneers are going to score points, and that means the Browns offense will be forced to throw the ball on Sunday. That gives them an excellent chance to go over their implied number which makes their players more valuable than their pricing.
Pivot: Tight end David Njoku ($5,700 at FanDuel and $4,200 at DraftKings) is an excellent option in Week 7. The Buccaneers are the league’s No. 29 ranked DVOA pass defense versus the tight end, allowing 8.2 passing attempts and 98.8 yards per game to the position.
FanDuel: Dalton ($7,800) + Green ($8,800) = $16,600
DraftKings: Dalton ($6,400) + Green ($8,100) = $14,500
Facing the No. 18 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 31 ranked pass defense allowing 340.3 yards per game
Game Total - 58.5
Implied Totals - Bengals at 26 points and Chiefs at 32 points
Game Line - Atlanta Falcons -6
The Cincinnati Bengals travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in a Week 7 AFC matchup, and this game is expected to be a shootout with the highest total of the week. The implied number has the Bengals scoring just fewer than four touchdowns, and Dalton should be able to exploit a very beatable Chiefs secondary in this contest.
Dalton has thrown for 14 scores and seven interceptions to go along with 1674 yards in his first six games in 2018. He is playing at a high level and has the Bengals offense in a very good place through six games this season.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit the Buccaneers for a 7.9-yard average, and only six teams in the NFL allow a higher average. Teams are gashing the Chiefs via the passing game, and a lot of that is based upon how effective the Chiefs offense has been, forcing the opposition to open up the passing attack to keep pace. The game script calls for more of the same in Week 7.
The Buccaneers have given up 31 passing plays of 20-plus yards. They allow an average of just over five of these types of plays per game, and no team in the NFL allows more on a per-game basis. Green can beat a defense vertically, and the Bengals will take shots down the field in this game.
Green is one of the game’s elite route runners, and he has been targeted 55 times in 2018. The Bengals have a good balance going with Green attacking vertically and Boyd working out of the slot. Green is easily the Bengals best vertical option in their passing attack, and he has a chance to make a few big plays on Sunday. Green has caught 33 passes, totaling 494 yards and five scores to date.
The Bengals passing game is in a very favorable spot in this matchup as the Chiefs are vulnerable versus the pass and the game script is very favorable for each team’s passing attack. This is one of the best games to target for GPP play in Week 7.
Pivot: Wide receiver Tyler Boyd ($6,800 at FanDuel and $6,700 at DraftKings) has seen 52 targets through six games, catching 37 passes for 455 yards and four scores to date and he is an excellent option in Week 7. Tight end C.J. Uzomah ($5,400 at FanDuel and $3,400 at DraftKings) is also a very strong option this week as the Chiefs are the league’s No. 29 ranked DVOA pass defense versus the tight end, allowing 8.5 passing attempts and 89.5 yards per game to the position.
FanDuel: Flacco ($7,500) + Brown ($6,500) = $14,000
DraftKings: Flacco ($5,400) + Brown ($5,700) = $11,100
Facing the No. 30 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 30 ranked pass defense allowing 297.6 yards per game
Game Total - 49.5
Implied Totals - Ravens at 26 points and Saints at 23.5 points
Game Line - Baltimore Ravens -2.5
The Baltimore Ravens are at home in Week 7 as they bring the New Orleans Saints to town for a Week 7 matchup. Only four games have a higher total than this one, and both teams are expected to score three-plus touchdowns via their implied totals.
The Saints pass defense is reeling having surrendered a 9.1-yard average which is second-worst in the NFL. They have given up six passing plays of 40+ yards, and the rate the Saints allow these huge chunk plays is the worst rate across the entire league.
The game script calls for each team to have to open up the offense and throw the ball, and that means good things for Flacco and Brown. Brown is a tremendous vertical threat, and he can take the top off the Saints defense in a flash. Brown has consistently shown the ability to generate long plays because he can run past coverage, and this is exactly where the Saints are most vulnerable.
Brown has been targeted 47 times in 2018, catching 21 passes for 424 yards and scoring three times. Brown is dependent on the game script along with Flacco, but he is capable of getting into the end zone at a high rate. Flacco and Brown are very strong options in this matchup as long as the Saints offense pushes the Ravens to keep throwing the ball.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
FanDuel: Goff ($8,300) + Woods ($7,700) = $16,000
DraftKings: Goff ($6,600) + Woods ($7,000) = $13,600
Facing the No. 26 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 25 ranked pass defense allowing 279 yards per game
Game Total - 52.5
Implied Totals - Rams at 31 points and 49ers at 21 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Rams -10
The unbeaten Los Angeles Rams travel to San Francisco to take on the 49ers in an NFC West matchup in Week 7. The Rams offense is clicking on all cylinders and Goff is playing excellent football through six games in 2018. This game has the third-highest total of the week, and it is clear that points should come easy on Sunday in this matchup.
The Rams have the second-highest implied number in Week 7 as they are forecast to score four-plus touchdowns. Goff had been playing lights out football going into last week’s game at Denver, but the game script called for very little from the Rams passing game.
Goff has thrown for 1928 yards and 12 scores in six games while completing just fewer than 70 percent of his attempts. With the 49ers defense struggling, it is easy to see Goff producing at a very high level in Week 7.
The 49ers pass defense continues to do a solid job in one facet of the game, allowing a 7.4-yard average. Only 12 teams across the league allow a lesser average, but they are allowing teams to score touchdowns at a very high rate. The 49ers have given up 14 scores through the air, and only four teams have allowed more.
Receiver Cooper Kupp is injured, and Woods should be the first option in the Rams passing game, and he can beat the 49ers secondary where they are most vulnerable. Offenses have not his the 49ers down the field, but they have picked them apart in the short and intermediate parts of the field, and they have torched them in the red zone.
Woods is a potent weapon having been targeted 51 times this season, catching 36 passes for 524 yards and three scores. He enters this contest with an expected uptick in workload with Kupp injured, and he has a chance to have a big day versus the 49ers.
The risk involved in this stack was on display last week when Goff did not need to do much in Denver. However, the 49ers are much more vulnerable in the touchdowns allowed department, and the Rams can score through the air on them. The matchup is an excellent one for the Rams, but the risk is significant as well.
Matthew Stafford + Golden Tate
FanDuel: Stafford ($7,500) + Tate ($5,800) = $13,300
DraftKings: Stafford ($5,800) + Tate ($6,400) = $12,200
Facing the No. 11 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 24 ranked pass defense allowing 278.5 yards per game
Game Total - 46
Implied Totals - Lions at 21 points and Dolphins at 25 points
Game Line - Miami Dolphins -4
The Detroit Lions travel to Florida on Sunday for a Week 7 matchup versus the Miami Dolphins. This game does not have a high total, but there is sneaky potential for this game to go over the 46-point total and finding players that play in games that go over the total has been essential for GPP play so far this season.
The Lions are underperforming on defense as they are beatable on the ground and through the air. If the Dolphins are going to get near or go over their expected total, then we can assume Stafford can accumulate excellent production in this contest. The path for the Lions to go over their expected three-score game-total is not hard to find, and I expect them to go over in this game.
The Dolphins have yielded an 8.1-yard average which is fifth-worst in the NFL. They have given up 22 passing plays of 20-plus yards and only seven teams in the NFL have given up more. They have allowed seven passing plays of 40-plus yards which is the most in the NFL.
Also, the Dolphins have only generated 10 sacks in 2018, and only four teams in the NFL have fewer sacks to this point in the season. Stafford is not great under pressure, and if he has time to get comfortable in the pocket, he will pick apart the Dolphins secondary in this game. The Dolphins have been better versus the run than they are against the pass and the Lions will need to move the ball through the air to stay in this game.
Tate is the Lions first option from a target perspective, and he is the safest play from a volume perspective. The Lions utilize their short-passing game to get the ball to Tate and let him generate yards after the catch, and he draws a favorable matchup in Dolphins slot cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Tate has been targeted 51 times in five games, and he has 33 catches for 431 yards and three touchdowns over that span. The Lions will continue to utilize Tate in the short throwing game, and he has excellent value if he can get into the end zone on Sunday.
There is risk because of the low implied number for the Lions (21) and the chance that the Lions slow things down from a pace perspective on offense to reduce the number of possessions they give to the Dolphins. However, the game script is positive for the Lions passing attack and there is a strong chance they go over their implied number which makes all the Lions passing games weapons more valuable in Week 7.
Pivot: Wide receiver Kenny Golladay ($7,000 at FanDuel and $6,000 at DraftKings) is an excellent option in Week 7 against a Dolphins team giving up significant yardage and big plays down the field. Golladay and Stafford have left a bunch of very big plays on the field, seemingly on a weekly basis, and if they can connect in this game, then Golladay could be in store for a very big game.
Wide receiver Marvin Jones Jr ($6,400 at FanDuel and $4,900 at DraftKings) has been very quiet to start the season, seeing 33 targets and catching 16 passes for 241 yards and scoring three times in 2018. He still sees red-zone looks, but you are chasing touchdowns and rostering Jones is risky as it appears that Golladay is eating into his upside.
Eli Manning + Odell Beckham Jr
FanDuel: Manning ($6,700) + Beckham ($8,500) = $15,200
DraftKings: Manning ($5,200) + Beckham ($8,100) = $13,300
Facing the No. 29 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 29 ranked pass defense allowing 295.8 yards per game
Game Total - 54.5
Implied Totals - Giants at 24.5 points and Falcons at 30 points
Game Line - New York Giants +5.5
The New York Giants travel to Atlanta on Monday night to take on the Falcons in a primetime NFC matchup in Week 7. The Falcons are almost a touchdown favorite this week at home, and that means the game script calls for the Giants to open up the passing attack to stay in this game.
This game has the second-highest total of the week, and as mentioned above, finding players in games where teams go over their implied total is necessary for GPP play. The Giants are in an excellent spot to do just that against a very beatable Falcons secondary in this contest.
The Falcons have given up 16 passing scores, and no team in the NFL has allowed more. They have registered 10 sacks through six games, and only four teams across the league have fewer sacks in 2018. What hampers the Falcons defense is the pace in which their offense scores, and that means their defense sees a significant boost in volume from the opposing passing game. The Falcons have defended 240 attempts through six games, and only five teams in the NFL have defended more.
Manning is struggling this season, and it is clear he is nearing the end of his playing days, but this is a premium matchup with an excellent game script. He is going to have to throw the ball a lot in this matchup if the Giants are going to stay in this game.
Beckham is the first option in the Giants passing attack, but he and Manning are struggling to break the big play. Beckham has been targeted 69 times to date, catching 45 passes for 506 yards and a score. The game script calls for the Giants passing attack to have a potentially big day and Manning and Beckham can pay huge dividends in this matchup.
However, if you have watched the Giants play this year, you know this stack is incredibly risky because Manning is having trouble getting anything going, and there is a chance that continues on Monday night. There is a lot that can go wrong with this stack, but there is also incredible upside as this is a premium matchup with a very positive game script.
Pivot: Tight end Evan Engram ($5,700 at FanDuel and $4,300 at DraftKings) looks to return this week, and he can hurt the Falcons defense with his speed and athletic ability. Engram is like a very big receiver and a player that can only help a struggling passing attack.
Wide receiver Sterling Shepard ($6,300 at FanDuel and $5,400 at DraftKings) is another intriguing addition in a premium matchup that should be high scoring. The Falcons are going to yield yards and touchdowns, and Shepard can beat Falcons slot cornerback Brian Poole with his elite route running ability.
RB/DST STACKS
Melvin Gordon III + Los Angeles Chargers D/ST
FanDuel: Gordon III ($9,000) + Chargers ($4,500) = $13,500
DraftKings: Gordon III ($8,400) + Chargers ($2,900) = $11,300
Facing the No. 23 ranked DVOA run defense and the No. 26 ranked run defense allowing 123.2 yards per game
Game Total - 45
Implied Totals - Chargers at 26 points and Titans at 19 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Chargers -6.5
The Los Angeles Chargers bring the Tennessee Titans to town for an AFC matchup in Week 7. The Chargers are almost a touchdown favorite at home, and they are forecast to score almost four touchdowns in this game.
Gordon has become a premium running back in the Chargers offense as he is capable of producing as a runner and as a receiver. He has scored nine touchdowns this season through six games with six coming on the ground and three through the passing game.
Gordon has 121 touches in six games and has totaled 745 yards and accumulated 30 receptions during that span. He is boosting his value with what he is doing in the passing game and is one of the better options in the entire league at the running back position.
The Chargers should be able to get after Titans quarterback as they enter this game having surrendered 20 sacks to date. Pressure can lead to turnovers and big plays for a defense, and the Chargers should have chances to make big plays in this matchup. Only 11 teams in the NFL have generated more sacks than the Chargers, and they are in a great spot at home versus the Titans.
Gordon and the Chargers defense are both in a premium spot in Week 7, and both sides of this stack should pay dividends in GPP play in Week 7.
