Cracking FanDuel: Week 17

Photo: Imagn Images

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 17 Price
• The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
• H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
• ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
• In the 2017 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
• I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

• Offensive scoring has been up all season-long and week 16 has fifteen teams expected to score 23+ points on the 30-team main slate. Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Listed by descending expected team points:
  
  
  • Kansas City Chiefs (vs OAK) - 33.25 points
  • New England Patriots (vs NYJ) - 30.00 points
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (vs CIN) - 30.00 points
  • Los Angeles Rams (vs SF) - 29.25 points
  • Atlanta Falcons (at TB) - 26.75 points
  • Green Bay Packers (vs DET) - 26.25 points
  • Seattle Seahawks (vs ARI) - 26.00 points
  • New Orleans Saints (vs CAR) - 24.75 points
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs ATL) - 24.75 points
  • Philadelphia Eagles (at WAS) - 24.25 points
  • Los Angeles Chargers (at DEN) - 24.00 points
  • New York Giants (vs DAL) - 23.25 points
  • Houston Texans (vs JAC) - 23.25 points
  • Minnesota Vikings (vs CHI) - 23.00 points
  • Baltimore Ravens (vs CLE) - 23.00 points

• Motivation - In the early part of the season, all teams are trying their hardest to score points and secure wins. In Week 17, less than half of the teams are going all out (usually in their quest to lock up a playoff spot). Phil Alexander penned an excellent piece on week 17 motivation so instead of rehashing that all here, I suggest you read this article carefully before building your rosters.
  
  
• RB Royce Freeman, DEN - $4,700 - This feels like the free square of the day. Rookie standout Phillip Lindsay is out and the Broncos get an excellent chance to figure out what they have here with their rookie. The Chargers are yielding 25.2 fantasy points to running backs since week 10 and I expect the Broncos try to get Freeman involved early.
  
  
• Davante Adams, GB - $8,500 - Adams needs just 2 receptions and 138 yards to set Green Bay records for catches and receiving yards. The Packers don't have a lot to play for, but I suspect Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams go after this record at home in a lost season. Note: Davante Adams is less than 100% and is listed as questionable for this contest. I fully expect him to play and go for the record, but if he scratches, then Marquez Valdes-Scantling becomes the play of the week. Since week 10, the Lions are yielding 31.6 fantasy points to WRs.
  
  
• Patrick Mahomes II, KC - $9,500 - Mahomes passed for 295 yards and 4 touchdowns while adding 52 yards rushing when they met in Oakland. Playing at home in a game that gives them a first-round bye should they win, I expect we see Mahomes and this Chief's offense in playoff form. Mahomes also could cement his stamp on the MVP award with an outstanding performance.
  
  
• RB Saquon Barkley, NYG - $8,500 - Dallas will likely be resting some of their starters with no real motivation in this contest. The Giants have been all Barkley since Odell Beckham Jr got hurt and this feels like more of the same. A solid outing by Barkley should cement him earning rookie of the year honors.

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)

• RB Saquon Barkley / TD New York Giants (Cost = $11,800, FP = 31.5, Ratio = 2.67)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II II / WR Tyreek Hill (Cost = $17,300, FP = 41.7, Ratio = 2.41)
• QB Aaron Rodgers / WR Davante Adams (Cost = $16,900, FP = 40.4, Ratio = 2.39)
• QB Jared Goff / WR Robert Woods (Cost = $15,400, FP = 36.7, Ratio = 2.38)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II II / TE Travis Kelce (Cost = $17,200, FP = 40.3, Ratio = 2.34)
• QB Ben Roethlisberger / WR Antonio Brown (Cost = $17,500, FP = 39.9, Ratio = 2.28)
• QB Ben Roethlisberger / WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Cost = $16,600, FP = 37.6, Ratio = 2.27)
• QB Aaron Rodgers / WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Cost = $13,400, FP = 30, Ratio = 2.24)
• QB Tom Brady / WR Julian Edelman (Cost = $14,700, FP = 32.8, Ratio = 2.23)
• QB Eli Manning / WR Sterling Shepard (Cost = $12,000, FP = 26.7, Ratio = 2.23)
• QB Derek Carr / WR Jordy Nelson (Cost = $12,000, FP = 26.6, Ratio = 2.22)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II II / WR Chris Conley (Cost = $14,200, FP = 31.4, Ratio = 2.21)
• QB Jameis Winston / WR Mike Evans (Cost = $14,900, FP = 32.6, Ratio = 2.19)
• QB Kirk Cousins / WR Stefon Diggs (Cost = $14,100, FP = 30.9, Ratio = 2.19)
• QB Blake Bortles / WR Dede Westbrook (Cost = $11,500, FP = 24.8, Ratio = 2.16)
• QB Deshaun Watson / WR DeAndre Hopkins (Cost = $16,900, FP = 36.4, Ratio = 2.15)
• QB Jared Goff / WR Brandin Cooks (Cost = $14,800, FP = 31.8, Ratio = 2.15)
• QB Matt Ryan / WR Mohamed Sanu (Cost = $14,300, FP = 30.5, Ratio = 2.13)
• QB Matt Ryan / WR Calvin Ridley (Cost = $14,400, FP = 30.7, Ratio = 2.13)

Players for GPP differentiation

• QBs: Lamar Jackson, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Josh Johnson
• RBs: Chris Carson, Jalen Richard, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb
• WRs: Sterling Shepard, Stefon Diggs, Kendrick Bourne, Dede Westbrook
• TEs: Jared Cook, Cameron Brate, Austin Hooper, David Njoku
• Def:Buffalo, Minnesota, Seattle, Arizona

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash Projected Points = 139.8)

• QB Lamar Jackson, BAL - $7,700
• RB Jamaal Williams, GB - $6,800
• RB Royce Freeman, DEN - $4,700
• TE George Kittle, SF - $6,700
• WR Tyreek Hill, KC - $7,800
• WR Davante Adams, GB - $8,500
• WR Sterling Shepard, NYG - $5,500
• Flex RB Saquon Barkley, NYG - $8,500
• TD Buffalo Bills - $3,700

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ KC Overload (Projected Points = 139.0)

• QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC - $9,500
• RB Saquon Barkley, NYG - $8,500
• RB Royce Freeman, DEN - $4,700
• TE Travis Kelce, KC - $7,700
• WR Tyreek Hill, KC - $7,800
• WR Davante Adams, GB - $8,500
• WR Sterling Shepard, NYG - $5,500
• Flex RB Dwayne Washington, NO - $4,500
• TD New York Giants - $3,300

Sample Roster 3 ($60K) - Cash+ LAR stack (Projected Points = 139.3)

• QB Jared Goff, LAR - $7,800
• RB Saquon Barkley, NYG - $8,500
• RB Chris Carson, SEA - $6,400
• TE Travis Kelce, KC - $7,700
• WR Robert Woods, LAR - $7,600
• WR Davante Adams, GB - $8,500
• WR Sterling Shepard, NYG - $5,500
• Flex RB Royce Freeman, DEN - $4,700
• TD New York Giants - $3,300