Buy Low
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Andrew Luck, QB, IND - It’s readily apparent that Luck can’t throw deep the way he used to. That certainly caps Hilton’s weekly and season-long ceiling, and Luck hasn’t really justified starting for fantasy teams with quarterback scoring spiking around the league. Between the quality of Hilton’s play, Frank Reich’s offensive mind, and Luck’s resourcefulness, you have to believe that the Colts offense is going to make the most of what they have despite obvious limitations. They have had road games against the Washington defense that stifled Aaron Rodgers a good part of Week 3 and the Philadelphia defense that is a monster at home the last two weeks. Rogers and Ebron both dropped touchdown passes against the Eagles. Better times are coming.
Nyheim Hines, RB, Ryan Grant, WR, IND - Beyond Luck’s arm, the Colts are also suffering from a severe lack of weapons. Eric Ebron and Chester Rogers are unreliable and Jack Doyle is week-to-week with a hip injury. Hines makes a ton of sense as a frequent run target out of the backfield set up for run-after-catch opportunities, and Grant had back-to-back strong plays to account for the Colts only touchdown in Philadelphia. Both deserve more work and Luck’s short and intermediate targets are still high value.
Carson Wentz, QB, PHI - Wentz’s ability to evade pressure and move was astounding considering that he is less than a year removed from a multi-ligament knee injury and surgery and he had no live game action before Week 3 to prepare for the rigors of facing an underrated Colts defense. His confidence and focus were in full effect, and Wentz was on the same page as rookie tight end Dallas Goedert to bring life to the 13 personnel sets Doug Pederson loves to use. Alshon Jeffery is due back soon, and the offensive line is going to create a good running game no matter who totes the rock. This offense is a sleeping giant, and Wentz’s fantasy stock is about to wake up.
Christian Kirk, WR, ARI - Kirk is probably impossible to pry from his team in dynasty leagues, but he is on a lot of redraft waiver wires. He has a good connection with Josh Rosen that clicked immediately, and Larry Fitzgerald is banged up. Even if the Cardinals finally get David Johnson more involved as a receiver, Kirk could be the leading wide receiver on a team that is probably going to trail a lot this year.
Tyler Eifert, TE, CIN - Eifert is looking more like his old self every week, and he’s still healthy! His injury history looms over his dynasty and redraft stock, but the Bengals passing game is strong and will support his fantasy viability. Remember, Eifert was a top 3-5 fantasy tight end the last time he was healthy.
Chad Kelly, QB, DEN - Kelly might be the best quarterback on the Broncos roster, and we might be able to see that Monday night. Case Keenum isn’t inspiring right now, and the Broncos could get humiliated at home against the Broncos this week. Kelly will get mop-up duty if the Broncos fall too far behind, and the calls for Keenum to sit will get louder if he can’t keep up with Patrick Mahomes. Kelly is a good athlete and could reveal a lot more fantasy value in this passing game than Keenum has been able to mine if he gets a shot this year. It’s definitely time to add him in 2QB/Superflex leagues.
Keke Coutee, WR, HOU - Y’all already know how I feel about Coutee. He is very close to being ready to play and Bruce Ellington is now on injured reserve. He could be lethal on Deshaun Watson extended plays and secondaries already have their hands full with DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. He should be added in deep redraft leagues.
Jay Ajayi, RB, PHI - Back injuries are tricky, and Ajayi isn’t a lock to return this week, so this is a risky buy, but one with great potential payoff behind the elite Eagles offensive line. Eagles running backs have at least seven red zone opportunities in each of the first three games, and Ajayi had five in Week 2 alone despite missing some of the game when the back ailment popped up.
Sell High
Isaiah Crowell, RB, NYJ - Crowell is so elementary as a sell high that it might be difficult to get any bites, but fantasy football players that only look at the stats will probably miss that Crowell has benefited greatly from getting his number called at the goal line and a garbage time long score in Week 1. He’s an unreliable weekly play and might be able to garner something useful in a trade with the running back position thinned by injuries and committees.
Carlos Hyde, RB, CLE - Hyde is set up to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the installation of Baker Mayfield at quarterback, and that is exactly why it is a good time to trade him, especially in dynasty leagues. Hold him if he’s your RB2 without a solid #3 option, but if Hyde is part of an embarrassment of riches at running back, the clock is ticking on his trade value. Hyde hasn’t always been the most durable, and if Nick Chubb gets on the field, he might force his way into a committee.
Golden Tate, WR, DET - The emergence of a running game in Detroit is bad news for Tate. He had 28 targets in the first two weeks, and eight in Week 3. Because he doesn’t get the number of downfield targets and red zone targets that Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones get, his ceiling is significantly lowered if the Lions become a more balanced offense. If you can get Tate’s initial redraft and dynasty value out of him right now (especially with free agency and uncertainty looming next year), it’s a good time to cash out.
Drew Brees, QB, NO - Brees is neck-and-neck with Patrick Mahomes in fantasy scoring right now, which should give you an idea of where his current value is. Mark Ingram is coming back next week to re-balance this offense, especially in the red zone, where Drew Brees already has 32 attempts after having only 88 all of last year. Three of his four biggest weeks in red zone attempts last year came before the backfield settled into the Kamara/Ingram split, so there’s good reason to think the red zone passing game will get scaled back soon. Don’t trade Brees just because, but if you have another solid/strong quarterback option, check to see if you can greatly improve your lineup elsewhere in exchange for Brees.
O.J. Howard, TE, TB - Howard has been a top-five tight end so far this year, and while his long-term outlook is very bright, his short-term outlook is getting dimmer. Cameron Brate’s targets and snaps went up in Week 3, and if Ryan Fitzpatrick is replaced as the starting quarterback by Jameis Winston during the Bucs bye, Howard could lose more value as Brate is Winston’s favorite red zone target. If by some chance Howard isn’t your top tight end, or someone has been calling about him in redraft trade talks, it might be the right move to swap him for help at another position of weakness.