The Best of Week 14 - Footballguys

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You guys have a ton of articles.

This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.

If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.

1. trendspotting and the Top 10: is Austin Ekeler as good of an option as he appears?

Melvin Gordon III will be out for at least another week when the Chargers face the Bengals' and its worst rushing defense in the NFL. It makes backup Austin Ekeler seem like a must-play this weekend.

But is he?

This is a classic case where the data and the film can tell different stories. Let's explore each through the lens of Ryan Hester's Trendspotting and my piece, The Top 10.

Let's begin with the data analysis from Hester's excellent weekly column.

RBs vs. Cincinnati

• Trend: Cincinnati is allowing 39.4 fantasy points per game to running backs over the last five weeks, most in the NFL. Cincinnati has allowed multi-touchdown games to three running backs in its last four games.
• This Week: The L.A. Chargers host Cincinnati as a two-touchdown favorite. Austin Ekeler disappointed some fantasy GMs last week, but it's worth noting that he still had 13 carries to Justin Jackson's 8 and 8 targets to Jackson's 1. As the main passing downs back on a team slated to score plenty of points, Ekeler is an attractive DFS play, especially as a pivot off similarly-priced Philip Lindsay, who will be popular after his big game last week (against Cincinnati, coincidentally).

There's no doubt that the data history screams for Ekeler. The Bengals have a soft run defense and Ekeler is the second back on the depth chart and Jackson the third.

However, there are two items that could foil the data: context and narrative. When examining the touch advantage Ekeler had to Jackson last week, it's vital to note that Jackson didn't earn a touch until the third quarter after Ekeler saw all the snaps for the first half of the game.

Once Jackson got into the game, he played so well that he immediately split time with Ekeler during the third and fourth quarter. And by the end of the game, Jackson was the runner earning carries and receptions during the final game-winning drive. Here's how Jackson looked (from this week's Top 10):

"Last week, this column showcased Justin Jackson's work at the end of the Rams-Cardinals blowout and noted that you should make Jackson a luxury addition from the waiver wire because it was unlikely that Austin Ekler would earn both Melvin Gordon's touches and keep his own.

It was also noted since the draft that Jackson has the talent to challenge Ekeler for his job and potentially develop into a lead back for the Chargers when Gordon's contract expires at the end of 2019. Jackson had a performance against the Steelers on Sunday night that showcased his potential and indicates there could be more in store for him this year.

Justin Jackson #ChargersvsSteelers

What made him good at Northwestern? Quick-twitch movement based on processing information to eliminate direct angles of pursuit. He does this four times on this nine-yard run. #Chargers pic.twitter.com/ycM2GPeDqc

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2018

Justin Jackson check-down. Not a speedster but sudden with excellent vision and feel for angles. Watch him bleed about eight more yards with his split of the pursuit at the boundary. #Chargers pic.twitter.com/gJ4x5TzVVH

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2018

Justin Jacksoin TD

Again, short-area suddenness on display. Eliminates the angles of two players in pursuit with one move. #Chargers pic.twitter.com/3WHsOJwYvC

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2018

Jackson's play in the third quarter led the Chargers to insert him into the lineup on a pivotal fourth-quarter drive during the final minutes of the game. Teams don't usually make this move with a rookie or young, unproven player unless they have a lot of confidence in his skill.

Jackson not only earned touches but he was the ballcarrier on plays to set up the game-winning field goal. As insignificant as the gains were, it's a huge endorsement of Jackson from the staff. And, there were impressive things to see about Jackson's game from these touches.

Diego Lopez, good thought on the Ahmad Bradshaw comp in style for Justin Jackson.

Here's Jackson earning more time in a tie game late (A big sign of confidence he earned from coaches).

Note the stiff-arm...he has a great arsenal of them. https://t.co/mVg61GMbgl#Chargers pic.twitter.com/zRgaVDgmjy

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2018

Good example why I have long stressed the value of short-area quicks, vision (which is many things), and footwork.

Justin Jackson only needs the span of a yard (if that) from decision to action to change course as he reads the line. #Chargers pic.twitter.com/8gQ6KB22lz

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2018

Cincinnati and Kansas City are both soft enough run defenses that, if Melvin Gordon is limited or out, Jackson could push Ekeler for additional playing time (if he hasn't already). If Gordon is out, there's a chance that Ekeler could be relegated to his old role and the Chargers give Jackson the lead spot.

Next summer, Jackson could overtake Ekeler and earn an extended tryout to succeed Gordon. Take it one step at a time, but there's a reason for Jackson to have long-term value — and maybe maximize his short-term production."

Matt's Verdict: It's widely known among teams that when a young player earns time during a final drive — especially a game-winning drive — the team has gained confidence in that player and it's a massive statement about how it sees his value.

When counting the beans from last week's game, Ekeler wins. When separating the best beans from the rest, Jackson wins.

That's the context of the game that the data doesn't show. Then there's narrative — a factor that data analysts try to rightfully minimize in most situations because a narrative can generate unhealthy bias.

However, there is a time and place for narrative. One of those times could be for the Ekeler-Jackson debate this week. Chargers' head coach Anthony Lynn told the media that Austin Ekeler is worn down from playing special teams and third-down back all year and they want to give Jackson more carries.

If you take this statement at its most conservative face value, Jackson will earn Ekeler's role this weekend and get intermittent work throughout the day as Ekeler takes breaks from his job of substituting for Gordon.

However, it's also reasonable to look at Lynn's statement as an opening for Jackson to earn more touches than Ekeler did in his old role. For one, Ekeler's size is below-average for an NFL starter and it's logical to see a greater split of touches between Ekeler and Jackson than Gordon and Ekeler.

At worst for those intrigued with Jackson's Week 14 fantasy potential, this could be much closer to a 50-50 split considering that Jackson earned all 8 of his touches in one half when Jackson had an entire game to earn 13. Combine Lynn's statement, the second-half trend of important touches leaning in Jackson's favor, and how much more dynamic Jackson appeared compared to Ekeler, and there's a compelling argument that Jackson could earn the majority of touches this weekend.

Still, Ekeler and Jackson should each earn a productive half of a split in touches. Look at Kamara and Ingram in Hester's chart above and you'll see that they split touches evenly.

Ingram earned more yardage but Kamara had one more touchdown. The duo combined for 54.4 fantasy points. Don't expect this kind of day from the Chargers' ground game, but halve the Saints' totals and you still have good production for both.

However, if I had to only choose one — I'd take Jackson because of the context of the data, the performance against a decent defense, and the narrative point toward a new development that can't be spotted with trends until that new development has taken effect for a few more weeks.

That that point, the fantasy season will be over.

2. Trendspotting and the Top 10 Part II: Travis Kelce vs. Baltimore

One of Hester's segments includes play-calling preferences, and Travis Kelce's seemingly tough contest against the Ravens earns Hester's attention. Trendspotting's author likes Kelce in this one:

In this section, we'll look at how teams call plays. Because game script and the red zone can skew pass-to-run ratios, the percentages below only show plays called when the game is within seven points in either direction and plays run between the 20s. We're also looking at the last five weeks only.

Passing

"Pass%" = the percentage of neutral script plays where an offensive team calls a passing play or a defensive team has a passing play called against it

Commentary and Action Items

Teams run against Oakland because they can, but Pittsburgh is deploying an RB1 who never carried the ball more than 78 times in any college season, never carried it more than 12 times in any college game, and only saw eight carries or more on four occasions in college. Jaylen Samuels is a hybrid player who will be the passing downs choice for Pittsburgh, meaning he'll be on the field far more than Stevan Ridley, especially as long as this game remains close. Both players are fine DFS options, with Ridley being more of a GPP dart in the hopes that he gets goal line and clock-grinding work in a blowout.

Indianapolis passes on 67.4% of its neutral script plays, the fourth-highest percentage in the league. Houston faces a pass attempt on 63.8% of its neutral script plays, the 10th-highest percentage. The Indianapolis offense had been as hot as any in the league until an airball at Jacksonville last week. Look for Luck, Hilton, and Ebron to bounce back in a big way. Any time an offense has skilled players, a plus matchup, and a narrow distribution of targets, the main pieces need to be in your DFS player pool. It's also worth noting that Indianapolis is the second-fastest neutral-script team in the NFL, while Houston is the eighth-fastest.

Baltimore is a unique case here. They are difficult against the pass, but teams attempt passes two-thirds of the time in neutral scripts. Last week, picking Matt Ryan and Julio Jones as a low-rostered GPP stack here and on Power Grid went horribly wrong. This week, a similar case can be made for Patrick Mahomes II and any of his pass-catchers. Since Baltimore allows 27.0% of its passing yards to tight ends, the seventh-highest percentage in the NFL, Travis Kelce is the best candidate.

In this case, I agree with Hester because Kelce is Mahomes' safety blanket and a player Mahomes isn't afraid to target with tight-window throws. Kelce also poses a difficult matchup for linebackers, safeties, and cornerbacks. Simply put, he's the best receiving tight end in the game:

"The Raiders have been a historically generous defense against tight ends. Although it hasn't been helpful for Oakland to face a steady diet of players like Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Julius Thomas, Hunter Henry, and Kelce six times a year, it's not just the quality of talent that created the problem.

Still, this segment's focus will be the quality of Travis Kelce's talent. He is (and arguably has been for the past few years) the best receiving tight end in football. Bookmark this column if you ever anticipate having doubts about a matchup for Kelce because it provides a showcase for skills that translate to success well beyond a forgiving Raiders' defense.

As an in-line tight end, Kelce can challenge the seam with the best of them. He's also an incredibly tough player. This is not a target that Mahomes wants to throw on a regular basis because it places his tight end in jeopardy of injury. However, it's a throw that, on occasion, is necessary.

A throw you don't want to see made often but it's comforting to have a player in Travis Kelce who can make the tough play over the middle. #Chiefs pic.twitter.com/tsGhfgaL2C

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2018

Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed are especially good at making plays on seam targets with oncoming safeties waiting to blast them. Kelce has been more durable but it's also notable that Alex Smith doesn't like throwing the ball into a crowd or leaning on his receiver's athletic ability as willingly as Mahomes.

An underrated part of the previous play is how it's connected to the next one — a low target in the flat.

After hung-out on the high target, watch Kelce make a play on the opposite type of target here. Underrated catch.#Chiefs pic.twitter.com/GPlImJ09oR

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2018

After taking a shot to the gut on the play prior, Kelce has no problem bending with excellent mobility to catch a low throw with his fingertips at the point of the football in stride. This is a target of underrated difficulty and to do it after stretching in the opposite direction and taking punishment is a display of great athletic ability and focus.

Kelce's rare athletic gifts as a big receiver extend to route running. He can be placed on an island against a cornerback or safety. Below is a Whip Route, a pattern that receivers like Julian Edelman or Keenan Allen run with great success that requires a sudden change of direction. Kelce runs it as if he's a slot receiver.

A foundation of that Mahomes-Kelce trust is Kelce's mobility to run a whip route and earn separation on a CB on an island. That kind of movement allows a QB to target him on back-shoulder and odd-angle targets. pic.twitter.com/y8Tl198zW9

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2018

Here's a fine play at the boundary. Mahomes' throw is fantastic, but let's not discount Kelce's awareness of the sideline and first-down marker. A player of his size rarely alters his down-hill momentum back to the football this well.

Is this the one you're referring to, @Midwestsports5?

Fine placement for sure by Mahomes and good boundary awareness and position by Kelce without letting momentum take him shallow of the marker. #ChiefsKindgom #Chiefs pic.twitter.com/IKmVdKvjq1

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2018

Kelce's route-running, catch radius, and toughness combined with his speed, strength, and balance make him a security blanket in an offense — and a player who can break a defense schemed to account for him. The only way an opponent will stop Kelce is if it double or triple-teams him off the line of scrimmage the way opponents did with Atlanta when injuries struck the Falcon's receiving corps several years ago.

He may not be the best fantasy tight end in football for the next 3-5 years (although I'd put money on the next 2-3...) but he is the reigning king of the position in real football.

Matt's Verdict: It's unlikely the Ravens will double- or triple-team Kelce at the line. While unlikely that Kelce comes close to his gigantic day against Oakland, expected another fantasy TE1 week from him against Baltimore. Hester's data matches the current state of the Chiefs — and the offense's need to lean on Kelce due to the loss of Kareem Hunt and Sammy Watkins.

3. Sigmund Bloom's Sleepers

Always an informative feature, Bloom has taken the torch from Bob Henry ably and delivers thoughts on several sneaky-good options for those wildcard fantasy teams with holes that need filling. Here are some of my favorites:

Michael Gallup (vs Philadelphia) - Gallup had his highest catch total as a pro last week when he caught five balls for 76 yards, and he should have had a long touchdown to cap his night, but Dak Prescott missed him badly when he was open behind the defense. This week, he and Prescott are facing a banged up Eagles secondary that could easily create more opportunities for Gallup to get free behind the defense again this week.

Matt's Verdict: Two of Gallup's targets came in situations where he didn't allow physical play from Eli Apple to dissuade him. Start him with confidence if you're in need.

LeGarrette Blount (at Arizona) - Blount has run with renewed vigor in the last two weeks, and he’ll get the best matchup he’s had since he became the lead back this week in Arizona. The Cardinals offense isn’t capable of running away from anyone, so Blount should get at least the 16-18 carries he’s gotten as a starter, and we know he’s the first option on goal-to-go downs. Big, bruising backs like Photos provided by Imagn Images