As training camp looms and standard fantasy leagues prepare to draft, best ball football on DRAFT has been on its game for months. Many of us have been participating in DRAFTs as far back as March - and some have put together a wide portfolio of teams. Our James Brimacombe, for example, has already drafted more than 550 rosters, and he's not planning to stop anytime soon.
I've completed 135 DRAFTs myself, and like Brimacombe (and many others), I've kept close track of my picks. Through a simple Excel spreadsheet - it took less than five minutes to create - I'm able to keep a constant tally of my player exposures throughout DRAFT season. The benefits of keeping count like this are two-fold. For one, it allows you to track your draft patterns throughout the offseason. Along the way, I've been able to take quick looks over my exposures (and their ADPs) to examine which strategies I've wound up using most and least. For example, if I note that I'm exceptionally low on shares of top-tier tight ends, I know that, for diversity's sake, I'd probably better get my nose into the Rob Gronkowski/Travis Kelce game.
More importantly, it aids you in diversifying your portfolio. We all like the guys we like and hate the ones we hate, but our projections and expectations are usually (somewhat) wrong. Even rock-solid fantasy analysts and players will whiff badly on more than a few prospects; shrewd drafters are more concerned with the degree to which they were wrong. It's perfectly reasonable to want no part of Marquise Goodwin, but if you refuse outright to draft him at all, no matter the value, then you've got a decent chance of missing out on a big year. Goodwin and the 49ers, after all, don't care one bit about your projections.
For those drafting a bevy of best ball rosters, "love" and "hate" simply aren't enough. We need to keep our shares spread to some degree across the entire draft board. Melvin Gordon is a no-brainer as a first-round pick, sure, but what if he's lost to a long-term injury or suspension? There's always a non-zero chance that last year's numbers were fluky; what if he merely under-performs well below his draft cost? No DRAFTer wants to be left holding the bag, with 80% of his or her first-round picks weighed down by Gordon.
With that in mind, here's how my 135-roster portfolio shakes out thus far. I've listed my exposure rate (what percentage of my rosters contains the player), as well as his ADP as of July 25. I've also included a scatter chart to help you visualize the ADP ranges where I've focused my picks.
Running Back
| Running Back |
Exp%
|
ADP
|
Running Back |
Exp%
|
ADP
|
Running Back |
Exp%
|
ADP
|
| T. Gurley | 14.8% | 1.01 | L. Miller | 7.4% | 5.03 | J. White | 1.5% | 11.11 |
| L. Bell | 8.1% | 1.02 | R. Freeman | 16.3% | 5.04 | L. Murray | 1.5% | 12.06 |
| E. Elliott | 11.1% | 1.03 | R. Jones | 8.9% | 5.06 | C. Carson | 2.2% | 12.09 |
| D. Johnson | 8.1% | 1.04 | D. Lewis | 7.4% | 5.06 | T. Riddick | 3.7% | 13.08 |
| A. Kamara | 10.4% | 1.06 | T. Coleman | 6.7% | 6.04 | M. Breida | 13.3% | 13.10 |
| S. Barkley | 5.9% | 1.07 | R. Burkhead | 10.4% | 6.05 | B. Powell | 5.9% | 14.01 |
| K. Hunt | 10.4% | 1.10 | M. Lynch | 9.6% | 6.09 | L. Blount | 5.9% | 14.02 |
| M. Gordon | 10.4% | 1.10 | T. Cohen | 7.4% | 7.01 | D. Martin | 8.9% | 14.11 |
| L. Fournette | 6.7% | 1.11 | K. Johnson | 6.7% | 7.02 | P. Barber | 25.2% | 14.11 |
| D. Cook | 13.3% | 2.01 | M. Mack | 6.7% | 7.05 | J. Wilkins | 9.6% | 15.06 |
| D. Freeman | 5.2% | 2.06 | J. Williams | 9.6% | 7.07 | C. Ivory | 1.5% | 15.11 |
| C. McCaffrey | 12.6% | 2.07 | C. Hyde | 3.0% | 8.01 | F. Gore | 0.7% | 16.05 |
| J. McKinnon | 12.6% | 2.08 | I. Crowell | 15.6% | 8.03 | A. Ekeler | 14.1% | 16.05 |
| J. Mixon | 8.1% | 3.01 | C. Thompson | 5.2% | 8.06 | T. Yeldon | 18.5% | 17.01 |
| J. Howard | 10.4% | 3.03 | C. Anderson | 13.3% | 8.09 | K. Ballage | 11.9% | 17.01 |
| L. McCoy | 8.1% | 3.04 | D. Johnson | 11.9% | 9.01 | J. Allen | 1.5% | 17.05 |
| D. Guice | 12.6% | 3.09 | N. Chubb | 16.3% | 9.03 | D. Murray | 0.7% | 17.05 |
| R. Penny | 5.9% | 4.02 | A. Jones | 8.9% | 9.06 | S. Perine | 3.0% | 18.07 |
| K. Drake | 7.4% | 4.02 | T. Montgomery | 8.1% | 9.11 | C. Grant | 3.0% | 18.09 |
| A. Collins | 14.1% | 4.02 | G. Bernard | 5.2% | 10.09 | J. Hill | 0.7% | 18.11 |
| D. Henry | 9.6% | 4.05 | D. Foreman | 12.6% | 11.01 | W. Gallman | 1.5% | 18.11 |
| S. Michel | 7.4% | 4.06 | C. Clement | 8.1% | 11.03 | A. Abdullah | 0.7% | 18.11 |
| J. Ajayi | 13.3% | 4.09 | D. Booker | 10.4% | 11.07 | C. Edmonds | 0.7% | 18.11 |
| M. Ingram | 5.2% | 4.10 | N. Hines | 2.2% | 11.07 | Photos provided by Imagn Images
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